US 10Y TREASURY: Oil fuels yields The U.S. 10Y Treasury yield moved higher during the second half of the week, as rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns and reshaped macro expectations. Markets are increasingly pricing in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment, as persistent inflation could limit the scope for rate cuts. This shift has led to selling pressure on longer-dated bonds, pushing the 10Y yield upward and tightening financial conditions. Overall, the move reflects growing uncertainty around inflation dynamics and the future path of monetary policy.
Although 10Y yields started the week in a relaxation mood, dropping from 4,42% toward the 4,26%, still, they closed the week higher, at 4,34%. A higher volatility might continue, as a reflection of investors sentiment to developments with oil prices and potential implied inflation, and US macro data. The week ahead brings PCE and inflation data for March, which will most certainly be reflected in higher volatility of 10Y yields. Potential levels to watch is 4,4% for one more time to the upside and 4,3% to the downside.
Long
The technical signal to wait for before returning to buyingMilitary operations in the Middle East since Saturday, February 28 have disrupted the global economy and have had a strong impact on international financial markets. The surge in oil and gas prices generated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sell-off in global equity markets, and few sectors have resisted except those linked to energy prices and defense.
The mechanism of bearish transmission from the geopolitical situation to global stock markets operates through the disruption of inflation expectations linked to the rise in oil prices in the markets. The resulting increase in market interest rates reflects the fact that institutional investors no longer anticipate any rate cuts from major central banks before the end of 2027.
Naturally, these expectations depend on the duration of the conflict and the time required before the resumption of energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz to the major economic powers of Asia.
The table below represents the CME FEDWATCH tool and shows that institutional investors do not expect any rate cuts from the Fed before the end of 2027, compared to June 2026 before the start of military operations on February 28.
In my recent articles published on TradingView, I have revisited the technical signals to monitor in the stock market before considering returning to buying risky assets, particularly in the US equity market.
The first asset whose technical signals must naturally be monitored is the price of oil. It is essential that it breaks technical support levels in order to reduce pressure on energy prices and on inflation expectations. But there is a second financial asset that I invite you to place under very, very close watch. It is the US 2-year Treasury yield, the market interest rate that best anticipates the future evolution of the US federal funds rate.
As long as the US 2-year yield remains above the current Fed interest rate (3.75%), caution is required, as this means that prospects for rate cuts are very distant. But if the “US 2-year” were to fall back below the Fed rate, i.e. below 3.75%, then this would signal that the next rate cut will take place in 2026, and this would then be a bullish factor for the equity market.
The chart below shows the daily Japanese candlesticks of the US 2-year Treasury yield.
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Technical Analysis Report: India 10-Year G-Sec Yield1. Trendline & Structure
The chart shows a long-term descending trendline acting as resistance since the late 1990s.
Current yield: ~6.96%, testing this resistance zone.
Moving averages (short, medium, long) are converging, suggesting a critical inflection point.
2. Momentum Indicators
RSI: Hovering near mid-levels, not overbought yet. A breakout could push RSI into bullish territory.
MACD: Histogram turning positive, signal lines converging → momentum building for a possible breakout.
3. Volume/OBV Context
Bond yields don’t trade like equities, but the speed of yield movement reflects institutional positioning.
Recent sharp uptick (+4.5%) suggests strong selling in bonds (yields rise when prices fall).
Market Impact Scenarios
✅ If Yield Breaks Above Trendline (Successful Breakout)
Implication: Long-term downtrend in yields ends → structural shift.
Equity Market Impact:
Higher yields = rising borrowing costs, pressure on valuations.
Banks may benefit (higher lending spreads), but rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, autos, NBFCs) will suffer.
Currency Impact:
Rupee may weaken as higher yields reflect inflation/fiscal stress.
Investor Sentiment:
FIIs could reduce equity exposure, preferring safer debt.
Nifty may face resistance, especially if global yields also rise.
❌ If Breakout Fails (Rejection at Trendline)
Implication: Trendline holds, yields capped below ~7%.
Equity Market Impact:
Relief rally in equities as borrowing costs remain contained.
Rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, autos, NBFCs) gain.
Currency Impact:
Rupee stabilizes, as bond market signals controlled inflation.
Investor Sentiment:
FIIs more comfortable with Indian equities.
Nifty could bottom out and push higher, supported by macro stability.
Summary
Breakout above trendline: Bearish for equities, bullish for yields → signals macro stress.
Failed breakout: Bullish for equities, supportive for Nifty bottoming → signals stability. US 10-Year Yield Analysis (as of Mar 31, 2026)US 10-Year Yield Analysis (as of Mar 31, 2026)
Quick Chart SnapshotWeekly (1W):
Yield is in a broad sideways range.
Key levels: Resistance: 4.32% (Weekly S&R) and 4.62% (Monthly S&R)
Support: 4.00% (Weekly S&R)
50ema acting as dynamic resistance near current levels (~4.32%).
4H:
Strong recent rally from March lows, riding a clear ascending trendline.
Price just hit the 4.32% horizontal resistance and the 50 EMA. A short-term pullback or consolidation is likely here.
Bullish Scenario (Higher Yields)
Yield breaks and holds above 4.32% (especially weekly close).
First target: 4.46% – 4.62%
Next major target: 4.70%+ (Monthly resistance)
Confirmation: Higher highs/lows on 4H + break of the orange MA.
Bearish Scenario (Lower Yields)Yield rejects 4.32% and falls back.
First target: 4.00% support zone.
Deeper drop: toward the ascending trendline or even lower if it breaks.
This would keep the broader range intact (4.00% – 4.62%).
Bottom line:
We’re at a key resistance level (4.32%) after a sharp 4H rally. Watch for rejection (bearish, lower yields) or clean breakout (bullish, higher yields). The reaction here will likely set the tone for the next few weeks.
Fundamental Catalyst for This Week (March 31 – April 3, 2026)The #1 event:
US March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) + Unemployment Rate on Friday, April 3 (8:30 AM ET).
This is the key labor market report of the week and the main driver for volatility in DXY and US 10Y yields.
Why It Matters Right NowMarkets are watching for signs of labor market strength/weakness after recent softer job data (e.g., February showed a decline).
Strong NFP (hotter-than-expected jobs + wages) → Higher bond yields (bearish for bonds, supportive for DXY) as it signals resilient economy + potential sticky inflation.
Weak NFP (soft jobs + rising unemployment) → Lower bond yields (bullish for bonds, bearish for DXY) as it raises hopes for easier Fed policy.
Other Supporting Data This WeekADP Private Payrolls (Wednesday) – acts as a preview to official NFP.
ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI (Wednesday/Friday) – gauge business activity and pricing pressures.
Retail Sales (Wednesday) – insight into consumer spending.
Markets are closed on Good Friday (April 3) for stocks/bonds, but the jobs report is still released.
Geopolitical Overlay (Ongoing Catalyst)
Higher oil prices due to Middle East tensions (Iran conflict) are adding stagflation fears — pushing yields up and complicating Fed decisions. Any de-escalation news could ease this pressure.Bottom line for your charts:
The reaction to Friday’s jobs data will likely decide whether DXY breaks above 100.22 (bullish USD) or rejects it, and whether 10Y yield clears 4.32% (higher yields) or pulls back to 4.00%. Watch ADP mid-week for early clues. Expect elevated volatility around these releases.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Why 4,10 Level is Critical?US 10-Year Treasury Yield: As Long as It Stays Above 4.10, Markets Cannot Breathe Easy
What Is a Bond Yield?
The government issues bonds, investors buy them, and in return the government pays interest. The ratio of that interest payment to the bond's price is called the "yield." As yields rise, the government's borrowing cost increases — and that cost spreads across all markets.
How Do Rising Yields Affect Other Assets?
When bond yields rise, a "risk-free" investment becomes more attractive. At that point, the investor asks a simple question: "Why would I take on risk?" Gold offers zero yield, Bitcoin is volatile, equities are uncertain. But a bond promises a guaranteed return. So money flows out of gold, Bitcoin, and stocks — and into bonds. The result: all three assets come under pressure.
What Does the Chart Say?
Looking at the short-term chart, the US10Y is trading inside the rising channel that has been in place since 2020. The current level of 4.34% sits above the Fibonacci 0.236 zone at 3.988% — a level that serves as both a technical and psychological pivot. The pink band marking this area has been tested multiple times and has held as support on each occasion.
Switching to the long-term chart, the picture becomes far more striking. From the 1980s all the way to 2020, yields fell for 40 consecutive years. Then this massive trend broke, and yields entered a rising channel. The current level of 4.34% represents only the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of that entire 40-year decline — meaning we are still historically low. There is significant technical room ahead for yields to move higher.
RSI sits at 56.74, above the signal line and pointing upward — momentum is on the side of yields. As long as the 4.10 support holds, the pressure on risk assets may continue. Real relief for gold, Bitcoin, and equities can only begin once yields drop decisively below this zone. Long 
US 10Y TREASURY: Signaling rising risksLong term Treasury yields are not sending a good signal with respect to the US economy at this moment. The 10Y Treasury yields climbed toward 4.48% on Friday, driven by rising inflation expectations amid surging oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions. Markets are also repricing the Federal Reserve path toward higher-for-longer rates, while weaker demand for Treasuries adds further upward pressure on yields. During the week there have also been a few notes from Federal Governors, noting a possibility for interest rates to be even increased if inflation starts its uptrend again. This is exactly what markets don't need to hear at this moment.
The current macro and geopolitical situation will continue to shape investors sentiment with its consequences on the US Treasury markets. Friday also brings March NFP and Unemployment data, which promise to be another volatile day. Some just a short relaxation in 10Y yields is possible at the start of the week, however, nothing significant should be expected at this moment. On the opposite side, based on charts, there is a possibility of testing the 4,5% level. Higher levels are also possible, which will depend on further developments with the price of oil and Middle East conflict.
Long
Long 
Price at 99.6% CeilingJP10Y is a yield instrument — no volume data is provided by the data vendor and no futures market exists on this feed. Every cell in the volume panel reads n/a. The signal stack is reading pure price structure and timeframe alignment only. There is no volume intelligence to confirm or contradict what the signal board shows, and that limitation must frame the entire read.
42 of 112 signals green, 7 red. Extreme BULL at 83.33% conviction, 11x. EMA 14 green zero red — full sweep across all timeframes. Candle 7 green zero red. Ichi TK 13 green 1 red. C>T 7 green 6 red — trend alignment not fully confirmed, nearly split. SS/DD 13 to 1 bull — the strongest supply and demand reading in today's scan. Engulf 1 green zero red. No squeeze active. Momentum Bull up with bandwidth 12.83% Normal — tight, energy not released. No cascade. Retrace -0.2% Extreme BO, bounce 16.2% at 96.6x Para — extreme ratio on a yield instrument reflecting the compressed tick movement. 5-Bar Move 5.1%.
No volume data across any metric. Vol Z, Fut Z, Vol S, VolZ 1:5, Bull:Bear Z, OBV Z all read n/a or zero. Spot momentum flat at 0%. No whale, no liquidation, no squeeze data. The entire volume intelligence layer is absent. What remains is structure only.
No leverage, no percentile. Price percentile at 99.6% Ceiling — the Japan 10-year yield is sitting at the very top of its annual range. Hi/Lo 2.383 to 1.38. Current reading of 2.379 is one basis point below the annual high. The yield has nearly doubled from its range low of 1.38, reflecting the BOJ policy normalization cycle and persistent inflation pressure.
OBV Z at zero flat is the key read — there is nothing to read. Volume data is unavailable for this instrument on TradingView's feed. The signal stack of 42 green with full EMA sweep and SS/DD at 13 to 1 bull is the entire analytical basis here.
The honest read: JP10Y at 2.379% with a full EMA bull sweep and SS/DD at 13 to 1 tells you the structural momentum in Japanese yields is unambiguously higher — but without a single volume data point, the conviction level of that read is structural only. In the context of today's broader scan — DOW breaking down, USO at ceiling, VIX coiling — a Japan 10-year yield pushing against annual highs adds a macro layer: rising JGB yields historically tighten global liquidity as yen carry trades unwind. At 99.6% of range with no volume to confirm exhaustion or continuation, this is a watch instrument, not a trade instrument. The structural signal says yields continue higher. The macro implication for risk assets is bearish.
Is That Crypto Pump Real? Data Says No. Here's Why.
Stop Losing Money to Fake Volume. Find Real Moves Now.
Trade the REAL Crypto Volume. Stop Getting Faked Out. 
Long
Long
Long 
End the FedEither tomorrow (Friday) or Early next week, the bond sell-off will continue and yields will press back above 5%.
Extremely difficult for the equity markets or crypto to gain any footing while this is happening.
Yields going up like this tightens the money supply (credit).
Stocks will not find a bottom until the top in yields has been reached. I have no idea where the top will be. What I can tell you is it is not dependent on Oil anymore. That started this fiasco, but the coals in the fire were already hot before oil became a problem. There are many other issues under the surface in our credit system. It is the U.S. bond market that is the problem. We are in the death spiral now of debt.
You are about to enter the Great Depression of the 21st Century.
Congratulations.
(Whistling past the graveyard....)
...Everyone thinks the Fed will come save them.
The Fed, doesn't save anyone. Not people anyways.
They save banks. Because they were made by banks. For banks.
The Fed's job is to keep you working.
Work, work, work, little work slaves, you work so hard, but your life doesn't get any easier. All this new technology, but your lives are harder than ever, hmm...that seems strange.
It's so...strange isn't it. That no matter what we create or advance. No matter how fast of machines we make to help us, or jets to fly us around the world, amazing technology, a naturally deflationary force, keeps progressing and growing, all you get is more work. If you're lucky. Why is that? In fact, it seems like it's been that way for nearly a century. Technology has progressed so quickly that you can't even fathom what 100 years ago was really like.
If technology increases productive output, then why haven't your lives gotten better. Where has all this increased production gone? It's all so strange... Surely with all the computers and machines and solar power and nuclear physics, we can make medicines you couldn't fantasize about 30 years ago to treat the thing that we poisoned you with. Weird.
So where did all your labor go? Your production?
Certainly not to you.
Does your boss have it all?
Probably not.
Maybe the tax man has it... wait... he's in debt.
Oh, actually, my apologies, YOU are in debt.
Because it's your labor after all. Your production.
The tax man just spends it.
Inflation is where it goes.
But the Fed will save you.
Sure.
Right after they crash the entire monetary system on top of your head like a bathroom sink.
Then they'll save you. They'll say, "We're sorry all your hard work amounted to nothing. But don't worry. We believe you can still keep going even with nothing. So here, take this barcode, we'll deposit 1,000 U.S.coins in your account each month. Because we care about you.
We're not the face sucking alien monster syphoning the blood right out of you. We're not the organization that was formed in a secret meeting of elite bankers on an island where no one could listen in on our plans to establish control of you. No.... that would be weird.... The tv told you didn't it? You can't say things like that. You'll upset the other slaves.
You've got to think like everyone else, remember? Now go back to work, and watch your tv, and play your games, and let us worry about the direction of your country and your leaders. Here...we'll make it easy for you. We'll help fund a 2-party system so you just pick heads or tails. Then go back to work, and let us direct them. The catch is it doesn't matter who you pick! Isn't that great? Oh, but you stress about it each time don't you. Such a hard choice. Getting punched in the mouth or the gut.
We've been doing such a great job, haven't we?
We do it all for you. We definitely don't steal your production and create inflation only to enrich ourselves. No... you see it's just, necessary, this inflation well.. because it encourages investment! That's it! Yeah.. I mean who would buy a stock if there wasn't inflation? Or a new tv? Or game?
Why, if there wasn't inflation you might all want to save your money, or you might not be such a hard worker! If we didn't have inflation, my goodness, your house wouldn't be a nice little nest egg that you can't leave and that young people can't afford. All the house prices might just stay the same or even go down as materials become easier to produce with all this technology. We wouldn't want that.
So don't worry. Andrew Jackson was a terrible person after all. A wicked, cruel, awful man. Did you hear of all his crimes? Lol. Good. Yes, no other president of these United States has ever done something so terrible. Surely not. And surely there was no rational reason for what he did at the time. He didn't have any noteworthy ideas after all. He was just a murderous villain surely. So don't read about him. It would be a waste of your time to learn more about him.
Because he was not a good slave.
But, You, are my favorite. Long 
US10Y —Yields at 4.356% With No Volume to Argue Against the MoveThe US 10-year Treasury yield prints at 4.356%, tagged Strong BULL at 30.58% edge with a 1.88x multiplier. No futures market exists for this instrument and the data vendor provides no volume — so every read here comes purely from price structure and signal alignment. What the signals say matters. What they cannot say is whether real money is behind it.
Signal board shows 26 green to 19 red out of 112 — a bull lean but a thin one at 40% clarity. EMAs hold well at 7:1 and Ichimoku TK stays constructive at 8:4. C>T lands exactly split at 7:7, a deadlock between trend-following timeframes. The bearish drag comes from candle bias at 3:7, which says most individual bar closes are rejecting higher yields on the current timeframe. SS/DD flips to 7:3 green — supply and demand zones favor further yield expansion. Spread at 30.6% Strong. Squeeze reads None with BW at 11.68% Blowoff, meaning volatility expansion is already in the late stage of the current impulse. The 5-bar move is only 2.1% with Cascade Normal, so the immediate acceleration is measured, not parabolic.
No volume Z-scores, no futures data, no leverage reads, no OBV signal beyond a flat zero. Bull:Bear Z is 0:0 Neutral. Every volume-dependent metric returns n/a. The entire quantitative edge of the volume suite is unavailable for this asset class by design — yields are not traded instruments with exchange-reported flow.
What price structure alone tells the story: the chart shows a series of Break of Structure events — BOS printed in November, again in January, again in February — each one confirming higher yield highs and lower yield lows getting swept. The most recent BOS arrow points upward from the March low near 4.1%, and price has recovered sharply into the current 4.356% print sitting just below the prior February peak around 4.4%. That level is the next structural decision point.
The honest read: US10Y is in a signal-bullish configuration with EMA alignment, SS/DD favoring continuation, and price reclaiming structure after a deep retrace. The 11% bounce off a -2% retrace at 5.5x BO+ confirms the recovery move is real on a structural basis. But candle bias at 3:7 and C>T at 7:7 both say the market is not yet in clean trend agreement — the upper timeframes are pulling while the lower are hesitating. With BW at Blowoff and no volume confirmation available, this is a macro watch, not a trade entry. The level to watch is 4.4%. If yields close above that on a daily basis, the prior BOS sequence confirms a new leg higher. Below 4.2% and the entire recovery structure fails.
Is That Crypto Pump Real? Data Says No. Here's Why.
Stop Losing Money to Fake Volume. Find Real Moves Now.
Trade the REAL Crypto Volume. Stop Getting Faked Out. Long 
JP10Y Yield Coiling at 2.271 Trend and Ichi Signal Breakout While Volume Stays Dark
Japan's 10-year yield is printing at 2.271 with no futures market and no volume data available — this is a pure price and signal read. Price sits at 89.4% Upper of the historical range with Hi/Lo spanning 2.376 to 1.381, meaning yield is pressing near its recent highs with limited room before testing the ceiling of the range. A supply zone sits overhead on the chart with demand visible below, framing a compression zone that matches the squeeze structure.
Signal count reads 30 green to 23 red across 112 — Moderate BULL at 27.14% edge with 1.75x confidence. EMA alignment is the standout at 10 to 0, a full sweep with zero bear EMA confirmation. Ichimoku TK holds 13 to 1 — equally dominant on the trend side. C>T reads 50 to 9 bull. These three trend signals in combination represent a strong structural bull thesis. The counter comes entirely from candle signals at 2 to 12 — short-term price action is pushing back hard against the trend. SS/DD at 13 to 1 is a significant bull lean. Spread at 27.1% Mod. Clarity sits at 47%.
Volume metrics are entirely absent — no Spot Z, no Futures Z, no S/F ratio, no OBV momentum. OBV Z reads 0 Flat with Normal divergence. Bull:Bear Z is 0 to 0 Neutral. Spot momentum is Flat at 0% Normal. This is a signals-only environment with zero volume confirmation available. Any read here rests entirely on price structure and MTF signal alignment.
No leverage data, no percentile, no AT Max or Min readings available for this instrument. Squeeze reads None with BW at 11.79% Normal and momentum Bull Down — no compression event building, just a slow grind with bands at normal width. Pattern totals at 0 to 1, Harami printing a single bear signal. No Star, no Engulf, no 3Sold. Pattern evidence is negligible.
OBV Z at flat zero is neither confirmation nor denial — it simply does not exist for this instrument. Liquidations not applicable. No whale data. Squeeze divergence not available. The bounce target of 10.9% at 4.5x is on the board as a BO classification, but without volume to confirm accumulation, the target is a structural projection only.
The honest read: JP10Y is showing one of the cleaner trend alignments visible — EMA 10 to 0 and Ichi TK 13 to 1 are not readings that appear together without a genuine underlying trend. The yield is pressing toward its range ceiling at 2.376 with bull structure intact. The bear case lives entirely in the candle signals and the 47% clarity reading, which suggests short-term exhaustion against a still-bullish medium-term structure. Without volume this cannot be traded with the same conviction as an exchange-listed pair, but as a macro read it says bond yields are not done rising yet.
Is That Crypto Pump Real? Data Says No. Here's Why.
Stop Losing Money to Fake Volume. Find Real Moves Now.
Trade the REAL Crypto Volume. Stop Getting Faked Out. Long 
Many will be astonished by the increase price in bondsDo you pay attention to junk bonds and not even to them, but to their spreads?
Did you know that they can show you things that are not obvious at all? For example, to become a barometer of the bear market?
Junk bond spreads play a crucial role in evaluating the risks associated with investing in high-risk bonds. Essentially, a junk bond spread is the difference between the yield on these risky bonds and the yield on safe Treasury bonds.
Historically, a widening of the spread on risky bonds often precedes economic downturns. Credit markets can sense financial trouble before it affects various assets. Since January 22nd, when junk bond spreads hit a low of 2.50%, they have risen to 3.27%, an increase of 30.8%.
Does this change hold any significance for you? I doubt it.
However, as the American stock market deteriorates, this gap will widen and might eventually surpass the October 2022 record of 5.83%.
When the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds also climbs, it serves as a warning sign of forthcoming problems.
Analyzing the US10Y chart through wave analysis reveals a corrective wave 4 forming since October 2023, nearing completion. This wave appears as a continuation triangle, suggesting a likely 5.80% rise in Treasury yields in the coming weeks . Such growth will surprise many investors due to its magnitude. According to wave analysis, wave 5's yield should surpass the 5.021% peak of Wave 3.
Post-triangle movements could be sharp and sustained. An interest rate hike will have significant implications for the stock market.
Prepare for these changes now! Long 
