Page 6 | Ideas and Forecasts on Bonds — TradingView

Government bonds

What Can Help You Anticipate the Fed’s Next Rate Move?⏱️ Reading time: 4 minutes One of the most useful macro questions for traders is not where is the federal funds rate today? but what is the bond market expecting the Fed to do next? One way to study this is to compare 2-year ( TVC:US02Y ) and 10-year ( TVC:US10Y ) Treasury yields . 📊 What is the TVC:US02Y - TVC:US10Y spread? The indicator on the chart above is: US 2-Year Treasury Yield − US 10-Year Treasury Yield When markets expect higher policy rates, the 2-year yield can rise

Yields might still go up, EVEN if the Fed intervenes. The FED and @SecScottBessent better get going before the RISING yields escape them! Question is, will they DO enough? Yields might still go up, EVEN if the Fed intervenes. Just FOLLOW the charts, not the STORY lines.

When both 2s & 10s drop together...When both 2s & 10s drop together and the yield curve steepens (10–2 rises)... It's historically followed by important market turmoil Happened in 2000, 2008 and 2020. It had a chance of happening not soo long ago, but not anymore... for now.

Part 1: The Yield Curve Battle! Warsh vs Bessent The bond market is setting up for an epic clash between two opposing forces. On one side we have Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. At Jackson Hole, Warsh delivered a clear message. Underlying inflation remains sticky and the Fed has work to do. He refused to promise rate cuts, warned markets against front running easy policy, and kept rate hikes firmly on the table. On the other side we have Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The Treasury wants to keep borrowing costs from blowing out. To pre

by ROW_Partners

Expect the 10 year bond to come down in the coming weeks Based upon the daily timeframe it looks like the 10 year is finally ready to make its decent, expect the first level to come in right around 4.0 followed by 3.3. You heard it here first, stay tuned for more market forecasts! -Mr. Bigshort

by Crypto_Cam_1

Long Duration Squeeze Watch — US10Y 4.60% Trigger ## Long Duration Squeeze Watch — US10Y 4.60% Trigger The setup for a tactical long-duration squeeze is building, but the trigger has not confirmed yet. US 10Y yield is trading near 4.67%, sitting between two important levels: - 4.60% — potential squeeze trigger - 4.70%–4.72% — rejection / invalidation zone A clean break and hold below 4.60% could force systematic Treasury short-covering and accelerate duration buying. The confirmation stack remains constructive: TLT — attempting to establi

by TheRealMongoose

Is AI Making Inflation Better or Worse?AI was first made known to me with the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. Here, we can see that yields, inflation, and interest rates also started to pick up during the same year. We often hear that AI will improve productivity, reduce costs, and ultimately help bring inflation down. But what if, before AI makes things cheaper, it actually makes inflation worse? And how we can manage into this scenario? 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis p

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Yield Ceiling and the Rates Trap: Will Stocks Truly Benefit?Instead of big institutions and foreign holders dumping their long term Treasury bonds onto the open market and spiking yields through the roof, they can now use collateral loan programs. By borrowing cash against their bonds instead of selling them, the market avoids forced fire sales. That removes the massive supply shock and helps explain why the 10 Year yield is hitting a brick wall. We called earlier that the Fed would not be raising rates, and the market structure is validating that more

by ROW_Partners

Why the Treasury's Bond Buyback Failed to Calm Bond Markets On August 19, 2026, the US Treasury made a surprising announcement: it would more than double its bond-buying operations to between 2 and 4 billion dollars each, with a focus on long-dated debt. Interest rates fell sharply in response to the news, with the 10-year Treasury down over 5 basis points and the 30-year down 9 basis points, while stock futures jumped. However, by the next day, most of the gains had been erased, with the 30-year yield climbing back towards its 19-year peak. This articl

Part 2: Macro and Rates (10 Year Yield and US Dollar)TVC:TNX The 10 year yield reached a new local peak, but the momentum indicators completely failed to match that push. The momentum (TTM) bars have been steadily shrinking since May. Yields are grinding higher on fumes, which sets up a likely pullback. US Dollar Index TVC:DXY Even though the Dollar Index dropped below 99.00, the underlying momentum is quietly making higher lows. That setup points to a short term bounce back. The Big Picture If the 10 year yield rolls over because the broade

by ROW_Partners

Bond markets fragile Scott Bessent's attempt to limit the bond sell-off caused market shocks last week. It's early days, and it's still unclear if we are at the cusp of the next big market contagion risk. Experienced traders always know: if you must panic, then panic early. The 30-year yield is now sharply up from the COVID low. Its has been at these levels previously, but we're now in a world with a lot more debt to GDP. The rate of decline in bond prices is also of concern. If the US Treasury continues to interf

US 30y yields on the rise again Bond yields are on the rise again, and this is something that needs to be monitored closely here, as it could have wider implications for equity markets. So far, stock markets have ignored the moves, but the fact they have just went back up after the intervention suggest things could get wilder in the coming days. The key question is whether this marks another blow to US policy credibility. The latest developments have so far proven mildly bearish for the dollar while supporting risk appetite

Why the Dollar Falls Despite High Yields Why is the US dollar weakening while long-term Treasury yields remain near multi-year highs? In this video, Ali Mortazavi, our head of Education, breaks down the divergence between DXY, the US 2-year yield and the 10-year yield to show why not every rise in yields is dollar-positive. The key is understanding whether markets are pricing Fed policy or fiscal, inflation and term-premium risk. A practical lesson in reading the yield curve for FX, gold and cross-asset analysis.

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30Y-10Y Yield Curve Recession Warning The US30Y minus US10Y spread. When the line drops below zero, the yield curve inverts. That has signaled every major US recession for decades. I draw a box under zero: “We are in a recession → buy cheap stocks.” Stay ready.

by SoaringWaves

The U.S. Treasury Has Stepped In!🇺🇸 Treasury Buybacks: Why Is the U.S. Treasury Intervening in the Long End of the Yield Curve? The U.S. Treasury has just announced a significant expansion of its buyback operations in the long end of the Treasury curve. Starting September 9, 2026, the maximum size of certain buyback operations covering: 10–20Y and 20–30Y Treasuries will increase from: $2B → at least $4B per operation The expanded program will run through November 4, when the next Quarterly Refunding announcement is schedu

by forexcitypro_leemeenal

Yields rebound - bad news for gold?Long-dated Treasury yields are moving higher again, potentially bad news for the likes of gold and Bitcoin, the major beneficiaries of yesterday's Treasury Department’s decision to significantly increase its purchases of longer-dated government debt. Looking at the chart, it looks like a classic case of resistance turning into support with the highs of October 2023 (5.178%) and that of May 2026 (5.200%) holding as support. Treasury yields have risen sharply since June, reaching levels not see

Three stories driving markets today Moderna and Merck reported positive Phase 3 results for their personalised mRNA cancer treatment in high-risk melanoma patients, bringing the companies closer to seeking regulatory approval. Moderna shares surged around 177% on the news. The US Treasury will more than double some purchases of longer-term government debt between September 9 and November 4, targeting a market under pressure from rising yields and heavy government borrowing. The announcement triggered a sharp move in bonds,

by BlackBull Markets

Hotel California Treasury Trap Francis Hunt has used the "Hotel California" analogy ("you can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave") to illustrate how major holders of debt are effectively trapped and blocked from outright selling when they need liquidity. Love it! Three examples: Japan (Current Example) Situation: Japan sought to liquidate roughly $58B to defend the plunging yen. Trap: Selling caused 10yr and 30yr yields to spike, triggering panic. The U.S. intervened with currency operations and facilities,

by ROW_Partners

us10y elliott wave theory analysis the us10y wave count : from march 2020 through october 2023, the us10y came up in what looks like a pretty picture perfect 5 wave move. since that peak, it hasn't been able to make a new high and has instead spent the last few years putting in a series of lower highs. --- paired with the wyckoff distribution theory from my last post(attached at the bottom of this post), i'm assuming the us10y has already found its major peak and has been distributing since late 2023, basically getting ready f

by lunarsyndicate9

us10y drops down to 1% the TVC:US10Y distribution is getting interesting the us10y has basically spent the last few years building out what looks like a pretty massive wyckoff distribution. to me, it looks closest to distribution schematic #2 , just with a slight modification in phase b. after the buying climax around 5%, yields got smacked down into the automatic reaction, bounced around the range for awhile, then tried to push back toward the highs. but it never actually got there. instead of giving us a clea

by lunarsyndicate9

US 10Yr vs 2Yr Analysis: Part 2 Back to the domestic picture, the Treasury curve is flashing distinct technical signals across maturities. US 10 Year Yield is showing notable exhaustion. Following the push toward the 4.8% zone, the daily frame is carving out a clear bearish divergence on the RSI alongside fading momentum on the TTM Squeeze histogram. With momentum drying up at local highs, establishing a sustained push through 4.80% appears increasingly difficult without a fresh macroeconomic or inflation catalyst. US 2 Yea

by ROW_Partners

France 10Y Yield — Downside Opportunity Taking Shape France 10-Year Government Bond Yield is currently presenting a bearish trade setup, with my analysis favoring the selling side from the present market conditions. The idea is built around the interaction between price structure, momentum and the specific conditions defined by my trading methodology. Instead of entering based on a single reaction, I’m evaluating the broader market behavior to determine whether sellers can maintain control and drive the yield toward lower levels. The current set

by asgharphulpoto

DE 2Y — Fading the Bullish Move Germany 2Y Government Bond Yield — Selling Trade Idea 📉 Germany 2Y Government Bond Yield is currently backed by strong bullish participation, with buyers maintaining solid upside pressure across the market. Even with this firm buying environment, my trade idea is positioned toward a bearish move based on the setup identified through my methodology. I am not looking at the market simply from the perspective of its current direction. My focus is on the specific price behaviour and conditions tha

by asgharphulpoto

DE 5Y — Selling Against Momentum Germany 5Y Government Bond Yield continues to show strong bullish momentum, with buyers driving the market higher and maintaining clear upside pressure. Despite this powerful buying environment, my trade idea is focused on a potential bearish reversal from the current area. The bullish move is undeniable, but my analysis is built around a different perspective. Rather than measuring the opportunity only by the strength of the rally, I am focusing on the conditions that could signal exhaustion a

by asgharphulpoto