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Government bonds

US10Y UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD.the US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.39%-4.5%,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025) The Federal Reserv

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10 year united states government bond yield the US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.435% newyork session,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025) The Fe

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10 YEAR US GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD . the US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.39%-4.5%,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025) The Federal Reser

US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 16-20 (UPDATED DAILY) US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 16-20 (UPDATED DAILY) Overnight U.S. Treasuries ended the week lower as rising energy prices sparked inflation concerns, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Crude oil surged $5.12 (7.5%) to $73.16/bbl, up 13.3% weekly, following Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack, raising fears of further escalation. Treasuries began the day higher but steadily declined, pushing the 10-year yield above its 50-d

US BOND Market ROUGH CORRECTION Q3 ?Us bond market failed the initial demand zone & drop 8 % in 2nd quarter & recovered, might visit the extreme demand zone in coming Q 3 which is around 9 % drop

US 10Y TREASURY: eyes FOMC projections The US inflation data were posted during the previous week, showing that the inflation continues to slow down, with 0,1% in May. Also, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data are showing decreasing inflation expectations for this year at 5,1%, from previously posted 6,6%, while the five year expectation eased to the level of 4,2%. However, the unrest on markets was imposed by new Middle East tensions, which were also reflected in the Treasury yields during the previous week. The 10Y y

Recession delayed like in the past (higher yield)yield inverted, usually a signal for recession, but there is a case that the recession delayed It's during the recession of 1992, 2009, and now it should happen this year, but the chance has dropped from 70% to 30% delayed recession moght be delayed for 4 year or until yield making higher high after making higher high will see recession within 2 years, rest for 1 year then bottomed for 2 years So we need to see 1. higher high 10-year yield in 2026-2027 2. recession within 2 years (2028-2029)

Rates Poised For Another Leg Up Rates pattern forming a reverse head and shoulders formation. Look for the 20 year at 5.25%

US10Y Big downside potential The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been since last week on a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rebound, consistently rising since the April 04 Low (Support 1). The presence of the Lower Highs trend-line just above it, puts strong selling pressure long-term. As a result, either now or upon a Lower Highs contact, we expect the US10Y to turn bearish and Target 3.860% (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SH

Eurobonds: Europe Seizes on Trump’s Fiscal Misstep By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The tax bill proposal put forward by the Trump administration — known as the “Big Beautiful Bill” — includes a controversial clause, number 899, which threatens to tax dividends and coupons from U.S. assets received by foreign investors from countries deemed “hostile” or “discriminatory” toward the United States. While designed as a geopolitical pressure tool, this measure could ultimately undermine the U.S. market itself and present a historic window of

A case for an 8% Higher for Longer The monthly line chart is starting to look similar to the 2000-2008 timeframe; however instead of a prolonged Bear Flag; it looks like a prolonged Bull Flag in the making. Should that bull flag break to the upside; a doubling of the "pole" could put rates at or near the 8% range. (the dates rhyming could be just coincidental)

US 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 9-13(JUNE 9 UPDATE) Overn US 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 9-13 (JUNE 9 UPDATE) Overnight U.S. Treasuries declined following a stronger-than-expected May employment report, signaling a robust labor market and sustained economic growth, reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Investors sold across the yield curve, with the belly experiencing the most pressure. Meanwhile, the stock market rallied, likely benefiting from portfolio rebalancing from bonds to equities. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4% to 99.18,

US 10Y TREASURY: will the Fed cut?The jobs market data were in the spotlight of investors during the previous week. The major impact came from the non-farm payrolls posted on Friday, which was better than anticipated with 139K new jobs added. The jobs market in the US continues to hold strongly, which impacts investors anticipation of potential Fed's rate cut during the course of this year. Namely, as the Fed has a dual mandate of keeping inflation at targeted level and exercising full employment, the stronger jobs market might

A crash in the horizon As I have been suspecting for a long time. Markets are getting closer to a crash. On the weekly the 2 years bond market confirmed the change in the trend to the downside. Once we dip bellow the blue ema we might be entering in a doomed phase. Cheers

Comparison of 3M to 30Y US Bond Yields Comparison of 3M to 30Y US Bond Yields. Monitoring bond yields to see if any spike in yields will reveal any systemic issue in the markets.

US 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2-6, 2025 US 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2-6, 2025 Overnight, U.S. Treasuries remained stable, with shorter-dated maturities slightly outperforming longer ones. Mixed economic data included stronger-than-expected April personal income, weaker-than-expected May Chicago PMI, and concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted stalled talks, while President Trump expressed frustration but optimism for resolution with President Xi. This supported stock market stabilization, wi

US 10Y TREASURY: eased inflation expectations Trade tariffs continue to gain a lot of investors attention, but they are slowly turning to actual macro data and inflation expectations in the future period. Uncertainty over the future impact of imposed trade tariffs of the US Administration is still present, but it becomes evident that investors are becoming tired of reactions on tweets, and are much more switching attention to actual data. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final data for May, posted during the previous week, show

Rising Yields doesn't (always) translate Dollar Strength The 30-year Treasure yield pushed above 5%, which should be bullish for the dollar. However, the DXY actually went lower. It seems like investors aren't just looking at yields, they're concerned about why yields are rising. It won't be pretty. If the greenback falls below 99.50, the alarm will go off. The Treasury yields tell the truth about debt confidence. We'll be on the lookout for EURUSD & USDJPY price action next week when NFP comes around. I'm not gonna say it, but I'm leaning towards c

by Martingale_FX

US 10Y Technical Outlook for the Week May 26-30, 2025 US 10Y Technical Outlook for the Week May 26-30, 2025 Market Recap: Week Ending Friday, May 23, 2025 U.S. Treasuries surged early after President Trump’s X post proposing a 50% tariff on the EU, citing stalled trade talks, sparking a flight-to-safety amid growth concerns and tariff uncertainty. The 10-year note yield fell from 4.54% to 4.45%, and the 30-year bond yield dropped from 5.04% to 4.98%. Markets stabilized after a White House official clarified to CNBC that the remark was negotiating

$US10Y and $DXY Divergence and correlation breakdown Recent weeks we might have missed some underlying churn in the market dynamics. Recently there has been a clear visible divergence in TVC:US10Y and TVC:DXY in midst of all the noise about the tariffs. Usually with rising TVC:US10Y yield the US Dollar index TVC:DXY rises with it as visible in the chart below. In this blog we have been following the downward slopping channel in the TVC:US10Y and the yield has remained within this tight range of the channel. In our last blog on 02 May 25

by RabishankarBiswal

US 10Y TREASURY: heading higher Trade tariffs once again shaped market sentiment during the previous week. The US Administration announced the intent for introduction of 50% tariffs on goods imported from the European Union, which should become effective from 1st July this year. Market immediately reacted to this news, bringing US equities lower, and surging US treasuries. Another news that hit the market and impacted negatively US yields was that the US House of Representatives adopted a tax and spending bill, which is expect

CANADIAN GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD. CA10Y The Canada 10-year government bond yield (CA10Y) plays a significant role in influencing the Canadian dollar (CAD) in the forex market.the following are key take home . 1. Interest Rate Expectations and Monetary Policy Signaling The 10-year bond yield reflects market expectations of future interest rates and inflation. When the CA10Y rises (currently around 3.35%–3.38% in May 2025), it signals expectations of tighter monetary policy or higher inflation, which tends to strengthen the CAD as inves

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Is US debt a threat to equity market recovery?Introduction: The equity market is marking time in the short term after a vertical uptrend since the beginning of April. There are many issues of fundamental concern, but one is currently front and center: the sustainability of US sovereign debt. Of course, it's far too early to talk about a US public debt crisis, but the new tax bill championed by the Trump Administration envisages raising the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion, putting short-term upward pressure on US bond yields on 10-, 20- and

US10Y Technical Breakdown – Post-Moody’s Downgrade Moody’s has downgraded the US credit rating for the first time since 2011, citing rising debt levels and long-term fiscal challenges. This move sends a clear warning signal about America’s fiscal path and adds fresh uncertainty to markets already navigating interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks. Focus on the US 10-Year Treasury Yield as the market’s pulse on sovereign risk, inflation expectations, and future borrowing costs. Tracking its medium-term trend will provide crucial clue