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Crude Oil Spikes - Russia / Ukraine / USA sanction? Concerns about the possibility of tighter global oil supplies are supporting crude prices after President Trump warned of "secondary sanctions" if Russia fails to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days. These sanctions have absolutely burned the shorts in oil and can cause a 3 bar surge on the daily chart if crude breaks this channel. Keep you eye on the daily 200 MA...if it holds above we should push higher on crude. FOMC RATE DECISION TOMORROW - Tune into our live stream.
TVC:US10Y
by Trading-Capital
US05Y Bullish ideaWe can see we had rejection after taking out our sell side liquidity and balancing our daily fair value gap. We are still showing strength in the bond market as well with the dollar index. Our DOL is to the upside in the form of buyside liquidity and our daily volume imbalance at 4.073%. * Fundamentals: We are having a rise in inflation and a stronger interest rate of the dollar against most of the major basket currency pairs, which in the longer term should potentially see us get a stronger do
TVC:US05YLong
by That_Guy_Trades
US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC week During the previous week investors were digesting the latest macro data aiming to set expectations for the forthcoming FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for Wednesday, July 30th. The 10Y Treasury yields were moving between 4,32% and 4,44%, closing the week at 4,38%. The drop in yields during the second half of the week was impacted with a trade deal between the US and Japan. Negotiations with the EU are taking place during the weekend in Scotland, whose outcome will be known at the start of the w
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Bond Bulls Smell Blood: 20-Year Yields Likely to Fall🧩 Fundamental Bear Case for 20-Year Yields 1. Recession Risk and Slowing Growth Leading economic indicators (e.g., ISM Manufacturing, Conference Board LEI) continue to suggest softening demand across key sectors. A recession or significant slowdown would drive capital into long-duration Treasuries, causing yields to fall as bond prices rise. Historically, 20-year yields fall 200–300bps from cycle peaks during recessions. With yields near 5%, there is ample downside room. 2. Federal Reserve
TVC:US20YShort
by JoshuaDanford
The Bessent Effect: Part I-Challenge the FedThe Bessent Effect: Part I-Challenge the Fed Originally posted on June 30th, 2025, but it was removed by a moderator — I misinterpreted the posting guidelines (I tend to read a little too deep between the lines sometimes). For context, the original version didn’t include the White or Green lines. June 30th post: The 10-year Treasury yield is the heartbeat of commercial lending — it’s what sets the tone for everything from real estate financing to economic sentiment. And interestingly, it’s
TVC:US10Y
by TheAlphaView
Yield Spreads Warning About the Secular Bull MarketAre we in the final innings of the current secular bull market that emerged from the robust injection of liquidity in response to the 2008 Financial Crisis? Yield spreads are giving us a warning and one that should not be dismissed. Yield spreads show (shorter to longer in lighter blue to darker blue) a spread that has been shrinking, for quite some time. The yield curve has been inverted for a while too. As we tread these dangerous waters, one has to wonder, when and where will the next eve
TVC:US02Y
by Davy_Dave_Charts
1
US 10Y TREASURY: June data cools rate cut hopesThe US inflation and jobs data shaped investors sentiment during the previous week, where 10Y US Treasury yields eased as of the end of the week. The US inflation remains relatively steady and in line with expectations, with 0,3% increase in June or 2,7% y/y. The producers price Index was holding at 0% in June, while the University of Michigan inflation expectations also eased to 4,4% for the year and 3,6% for a five years inflation expectations. June Retail Sales surprised the market with a 0,6
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 21-25 (updated dailyUS Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 21-25 (updated daily) Overnight On Friday, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note slightly declined to 4.44%, driven by investor reactions to the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. The consumer sentiment index rose in July, accompanied by lower inflation expectations for both short- and long-term horizons. Waller expressed support for a potential rate cut in Jul
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
$US10Y - $US02Y Inversion and $NDX Drawdowns Since 1989I cleaned the chart a bit for readability. The chart shows historical inversions in the TVC:US10Y and TVC:US02Y and the drawdowns in the NASDAQ:NDX that followed. The implication is that we should expect to see a >50% drawdown within 4 months. I'm not calling the "why" but only drawing parallels to historical price action following bond market environments. My current interpretation is that we're headed for stagflation - interest rates will be stickier than consensus takes driven by ma
TVC:US10Y
by kWhDealer_
$NDX Black Swan Correlation of Variance from 0% of $US10Y $US02YIt appears that since 1989, deeper inversions of the yield curve have led to deeper drawdowns in the $NDX. Relative strength always appears to be in a steeper move upward coupled with fuzzy signals in volatility before the drawdown. Based on the previous market crashes, anything from a 60% to 90% drawdown appears to be plausible. Currently buying long-expiry OTM put verticals across tech meme names (think NASDAQ:PLTR ) and potentially on some stalwart Mag7 tickers (maybe NASDAQ:META ) for pe
TVC:US10YShort
by kWhDealer_
US10Y UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD .US 10-Year Treasury Yield Reaction to July 15, 2025 Economic Data Key Economic Data (July 15, 2025) Indicator Actual Forecast Previous Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% CPI m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% CPI y/y 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% Empire State Mfg Index 5.5 — -8.3 Market Reaction: US 10-Year Treasury Yield Yield Movement: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.495% on July 15, 2025, up from 4.43% the previous market day—a gain of 7 basis points. Immediate Cause: This jump occurred as the inflation data, whil
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
US30Y Bullish ideaThis is a potential idea of the 30 year bond yield potentially having movement to the upside. We have already reached into a daily volume imbalance and weekly volume imbalance. We also have a monthly order block that is acting as support combined with our volume imbalance levels. We also have relative strength with the US30Y against the US10Y and US5Y. Could be a potential idea to look for bullish ideas with the the fact that we are in a potential point were we could have a Quarterly shift. *Ta
TVC:US30YLong
by That_Guy_Trades
10
US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook July 14-18 (updated daily)US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 14-18 (updated daily) Overnight On Friday, the US 10-year Treasury note yield increased by nearly 4 basis points to approximately 4.39%, driven by market concerns over new tariff threats from President Trump. These include a proposed 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1, 2025, and planned 15-20% tariffs on most other trading partners, up from the current 10%. Additional tariffs include 50% duties on Brazilian imports and copper, alo
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
US 10Y TREASURY: tariff tensions rattle bonds During the previous week there has not been important US macro data scheduled for a release, however, news regarding tariffs has been the ones which shaped investors sentiment and also, US bond yields. It was indeed a no-clear-direction trading week when it comes to 10Y Treasury benchmark yields. The week started with a strong move to the upside, from 4,32% up to 4,39, then there was a push back, while yields ended the week at 4,41%. News regarding tariffs were the ones that shaped Friday's sen
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
GB10Y UK GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD The current Governor of the Bank of England is Andrew Bailey. Appointment: Andrew Bailey has served as Governor since March 16, 2020, and his term runs until March 15, 2028. Role: As Governor, he chairs the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee, and Prudential Regulation Committee. Background: Prior to his appointment as Governor, Bailey was Chief Executive Officer of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and has held several senior roles within the Bank of England, including De
TVC:GB10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
UK GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND PRICE GB10Relationship Between GB10 Price and GBP Strength Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move inversely. When gilt yields rise (due to inflation concerns or expectations of tighter monetary policy), gilt prices fall. Conversely, if yields fall, prices rise. Impact on GBP: Higher UK gilt yields, reflecting higher interest rates or inflation expectations, tend to attract foreign capital seeking better returns. This supports demand for the British pound (GBP), strengthening the currency. Howev
TVC:GB10
by Shavyfxhub
UNITED STATE GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD US10Y1. US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) The 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.39%, up about 0.04 percentage points from the previous session (July 10, 2025). Over the past month, the yield has edged up slightly by around 0.02 points and is about 0.20 points higher than a year ago. Market expectations project the 10-year yield to average around 4.28% by the end of Q3 2025, with a gradual decline to about 4.06% in 12 months. The yield increase reflects ongoing market pricing of Fed rate polic
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
CANADIAN GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD CA10YCanada 10-Year Bond Yield CA10Y The Canadian 10-year government bond yield is 3.43-3.419%% as of July 10, 2025, slightly up from the previous session and close to its level a year ago. Trend: The yield has edged up by about 0.06 percentage points over the past month, but remains below its long-term average of 4.25%. Economic Outlook Growth Forecast: GDP growth for 2025 is now expected at 1.0%–1.25%, revised down from earlier forecasts due to trade tensions and a cooling labor market. Risks: The
TVC:CA10YLong
by Shavyfxhub