US10Y - Labor Day August AnalysisHappy Labor Day US!
With price trading inside April 1st 25, spinning top upper wick encroachment and rates predicted to fall in September, sub 4.00% seems reasonable.
Due to high resistance, aiming for low hanging fruits on lower timeframes is the best approach.
4.187% Sellside Draw
4.124% Weekly Liquidity
Government bonds
Role of IMF in Global Currency Stability1. Historical Background of IMF and Currency Stability
1.1 Bretton Woods System
The IMF was founded in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference in the aftermath of World War II, when global economies faced destruction and currency instability.
The conference aimed to create a system where exchange rates were fixed to the US dollar, which in turn was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce.
The IMF’s primary role was to oversee this system, provide short-term loans to countries facing balance of payments
US10Y Mortgage Rates Heading DownI'm calling for a massive crash in mortgage rates very soon. Notice in December of 2024 Fed announced rate cut and we shot up, same for April of 2025 - i don't think it matters what he says this month, the chart is pointing heavily down.
I've been posting this stuff casually for a few months its time to start TALKING about making moves mortgage wise. But time is up! We are likely about to see a mini crash. who knows how long it will last, i think it'll be quick before we stagger back to wher
Yields are sniffing out the recession that is already in motionEveryone keeps talking about how rates cuts are going to push long term yields higher because that is what happened last September, etc, etc.
IMO the bond market is realizing that the US Economy is already in a very weak state and it will adjust accordingly.
It's highly doubtful that rates will "crash" but the 10 year could hit 2.5-2.7% (near the 200 SMA) and it would still be in an overall long term bullish structure.
US10Y 3 - 3.2 By April 2026Short/mid term
Trillions of dollars are about to pour in from every Mag7/major trading partner, without issuing excess USD debt.
Rotation from public to private.
Trillions of excess going to be locked in on Tbills for collateral on building the next generation infrastructure.
Rate cuts to fund the small cap/robot/machine industry sprouting up.
Long term, you probably drop another handle as people look to secure profits from the boom.
Wild times ahead.
Buy Bitcoin
S&P
Russel
TSLA
not financ
US10YThe latest US JOLTS Job Openings report released at 3:00 pm shows current job openings at 7.18 million, which is lower than both the forecast (7.38 million) and previous reading (7.36 million).
Interpretation
This decline suggests some cooling in the US labor market, with fewer available positions compared to market expectations.
The lower-than-forecast reading may signal that businesses are becoming more cautious about hiring due to economic uncertainty or shifting demand.
The Federal Reserve w
The Most Bullish Chart in the stock marketWhat does this 10 year yield and 2 year yield chart represent?
Is the bond market signaling a big economic event?
This bond market signal has a 100% success rate...but timing is the hard part since its a monthly long term signal.
Wait until we make a new pivot high in this chart...we should see some fireworks.
If you need to know what this means subscribe to our Youtube channel Where we often discuss macro economics and equites.
$USM2 at ATH. $US10Y rangebound. $UNRATE increasing. What's nextToday we dive deeper into the macroeconomic indicators. People who follow my space know my bias toward TVC:US10Y for market signals. Since months we are following the TVC:US10Y within this downward slopping parallel regression channel. On May 2 we predicted that we might see 3.5% by Dec 2025.
TVC:US10Y making new lows. 4% upcoming. 3.5% target low. for TVC:US10Y by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView
The target seems to be far-fetched with Fed staying put with the short-term interest rate
UK Gilt yields ascend to multi-year highsUK government bond yields (GILTs) spiked higher at the open today, reflecting an intensification of heightened fiscal concerns that continue to weigh heavily upon investor sentiment.
Long-term UK borrowing costs hit their highest levels since 1998
The yield on 30-year borrowing costs reached an eye-popping level of nearly 5.700%, breaching thresholds not witnessed since 1998 and marking a watershed moment for UK sovereign debt markets. Concurrently, the yield on the 10-year note jumped to a
Bond yields are rocking to the upsideToday, bond yields are hitting the wires and causing a slight market sell-off. Fear is kicking in and investors are becoming even more cautious, as economic cracks start to appear.
Let's dig in.
TVC:US10Y
TVC:US30Y
TVC:JP30Y
TVC:GB30Y
TVC:EU30Y
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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The Future of Global Trading1. Historical Context and Present Landscape
Before looking into the future, it is important to understand the present state of global trading.
Globalization: Over the past three decades, globalization has integrated economies, allowing companies to source materials from one country, manufacture in another, and sell products worldwide.
Digital platforms: E-commerce giants like Amazon, Alibaba, and Flipkart have created a marketplace where even small sellers can access global buyers.
Financial
UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week Sept 1-5 (updated daily) UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week Sept 1-5 (updated daily)
Overnight
US Core PCE and Economic Indicators Summary
On August 29, 2025, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2% in July, down from 0.3% in June, matching market expectations. The annual PCE inflation rate remained at 2.6%. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually, up from 2.8% in June. The Federal Reserve, targeting 2% inflati
US 10Y TREASURY: testing 4.2%The US10Y Treasury yields continued to slide during the previous week, testing the level of 4,2%. Posted PCE figures for July of 0,2% and core PCE of 0,3% for the month, heated market expectation that the next feds rate cut will be in September. Still, some news headlines related to the dispute between the Fed Governor Lisa Cook and the US President, were not quite welcomed by the market, hence, 10Y yields modestly reverted on Friday, ending the week at 4,22%.
The week ahead will bring jobs dat
Credit Risk FRANCE: 2 Decisive BarometersSince the announcement of the confidence vote on September 8, 2025, the French political situation has been plunged into deep uncertainty. Prime Minister François Bayrou, who leads a minority government, faces a determined opposition that has already announced it will vote against him, making his continuation at Matignon very unlikely. This political fragility immediately weighed on market confidence: risk premia and borrowing costs are rising for the government and French companies.
In the eve
QQQ Lagged Correction Window2020–2021
Steepening, positive curve
Liquidity + stimulus = QQQ ripped higher
2022
Flattening, then inversion
QQQ corrected hard which matched the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle
2023–2024
Deep inversion, recovery in stocks
Despite curve being negative, QQQ rallied
That was “don’t fight the tape” (liquidity + AI boom decoupled equities from bonds)
2025
Re-steepening
Curve now climbing back toward +0.60%
Historically, this “un-inversion” phase often lines up with late-cyc
US10YUS 10-Year Treasury Yield
The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury is about 4.22% to 4.24%.
It has slightly decreased by approximately 0.02 percentage points from the previous session.
The yield remains elevated compared to last year (3.83%) but is below the long-term average of 4.25%.
This yield serves as a benchmark for long-term borrowing costs and reflects market expectations for growth and inflation.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The DXY, which measures the US Dollar against a basket of major currencie
Spread OAT/BUND Over seven in ten French people (72%) hope that Francois Bayrou's government does not obtain a majority of votes in the National Assembly on 8 September. The Rassemblement National (RN), La France insoumise (LFI) and the Ecologists, as well as the socialists have already said that they will not give their confidence to the government
US02Y / US10Y - Look at history! Crash incoming?Look at 2000-2002 and 2007-2009.
What happened when the US02Y / US10Y went down?
MEGA CRASH!
Do you really think history will not repeat itself this time?
The question is, how long do we have?
Nov 2025 might be the top?
Could we go up until early 2026?
UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week Aug 25-29 (updated dailyUST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week Aug 25-29 (updated daily)
Overnight
Overnight, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropped to 4.28%, a decline of nearly 10 basis points from its session highs, following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s keynote speech. Powell indicated that the balance of risks between inflationary pressures and a softening labor market has shifted, paving the way for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, with markets increasin























