Comparing Yield curve of USA China and IndiaComparing Yield curve of USA China and India. Note USA yield curve inverted since 2022
Government bonds
Fed Rate Cut and Impact on India's Bond Yields, INR and EquitiesThis video gives an overview of how Indian economy performed during the post covid era, vis-a-vis other countries and using that performance as a benchmark, it explains that as US starts to cut rates, how Indian economy, bonds, currency and equities will likely perform
#US10Y YIELD - TESTING MAOR SUPPORT - YIELD PAIN STILL LEFT?????As we can see, US 10y yield is retesting major support, which was held last time. If this holds then we are about to retest the recent highs in coming months. Major resistance 5.00. Break below 3.2 levels will start new downtrend otherwise we are heading much higher.
Fingers Crossed!!! I feel we are in for a bumpy ride ahead.
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India's 78th Independence Day Special - Economy Remains StrongJai Hind!
Its been 8 months into 2024, and in spite of all the global turbulence, Bharat, i.e. India, continues to remain a steady ship. This video reflects upon our history and learns from it to taking a peek into the future to be prepared for it.
Jai Hind!
Recession Risks and Market CautionIn July 2022, we saw the yield curve (US 10-year Treasury vs the US 2-year Treasury) go negative. It’s been in that zone ever since, and now, as we approach the two-year mark, we’re on the brink of positive territory.
An inverted yield curve has a well-documented history of signalling recession. When you factor in the PMI readings dropping below 50, rising unemployment rates, and NASDAQ already in correction mode with a 10% drop from its peak, the message is clear.
So, what’s the takeaway? The
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Indian 10 year GSEC yields are fallingWith wave iii down unfolding 10 year bond yields should continue to decline toward 6.77% in this leg. Stay long bonds till five waves are complete
Short
Budget Analysis: Mother of Bull Markets Coming... The Government has managed to keep the fiscal math under control. More capex, less borrowing, reduced revenue deficit - all make up for a sound platform on which the economic development can take off.
As and when the global economy picks up and India gets a ratings upgrade, expect yields to cool down even more and equity markets to shoot through the roof.
If you can't read this from yesterday's budget, you are losing on a giant of an opportunity.
How To Read Budget (ii) - Government Debt and its implicationsThe Government is running a revenue deficit budget and hence it has to resort to borrowing. But apart from borrowing for revenue expenditure, it also needs to borrow for capex. Thus year after year the Government keeps borrowing and this keeps increasing the debt burden.
This video explains Government debt and how it is used and what can be the implications of debt, if used correctly or is used otherwise.
How To Read Budget (i) - Receipts and ExpendituresWhere doe the Government earn from and where does it spend - thats what the budget document tells us.
This video touches these aspects of the budget document - Revenue Receipts, Revenue Expenditure, Capital Receipts, Capital Expenditure, Revenue Deficit, Fiscal Deficit and expenses like interest and pensions
Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, Starmer - Lessons for India from UKIndian Budget will be presented in Jul 2024. This will be a coalition government budget, hence there is a chance of the government going populist and yielding to coalition partners demands. Indian government has done a fabulous job in the last decade of maintaining the public finances in a strong position.
This video tries to highlight where we stand due to our correct economic policies of the last decade - including a once in a century pandemic - against the global backdrop
Maharashtra Budget 24 - 25 (small slip of tongue once - sorry)Maharashtra Government announced the interim Budget today for 2024 - 25. The effort is laudable as it has tried to rein the revenue deficit and also reduce borrowing.
Karnataka State Budget Analysis Karnataka has increased its expenses and has not provided for any income increase of the same magnitude. Due to this the state is facing fiscal problems. It is simply resorting to borrowing more to fund its populist programmes. This is a sure receipe for disaster.
Predicting Nifty direction looking at India Govt 10Y Bond YieldWe can see an interesting correlation between t NSE:NIFTY1! he and the $TVC:IN10Y.
See the charts. The top chart is showing India Govt 10 Yr Bond Yield (IN10Y) and the below chart is current Nifty Future.
The IN10Y is making lower highs while our Nifty is making higher highs.
In the chart with purple color mentioned the direction. We can see whenever the IN10Y is gong up, Nifty is going down and vice versa.
The purpose of the study is to understand the recent Reserve Bank of India
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A bond market rally is now clearAfter rising inside a channel, the US 10-year bond yields are breaking the rising channel for wave B on the downside. This confirms the start of wave C down for bond yields. In terms of levels, it means eventually going back to maybe 3% in the US 10-year note, as wave C will break the neckline at 3.8%. So this will be a multi-month decline in bond yields, resulting in a long bond rally. We broke the rising channel at 4.45% so that is the key resistance here.
US10YEAR BOND RETEST ..US10 YEAR BOND RETEST HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN..
READY FOR UPMOVE ?
On the other hand..Dow Jones follow inversely with retest on trendline..
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US Govt Bond 10Y inv H&S BOUS Govt bond 10Y Cup and Handle pattern has given a BO.
Dow Jones has corrected as a consequence.
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US 10 YEAR BOND YEILD TREND NOWTREND -POSITIVE
PRESENT ZONE-Above Demand zone 1.
FORECAST -As per ZONE,
If Demand zone 1 not broken will target the gaps at 4.15 & 4.22.
My take
must touch the above gaps.and reverse back.
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US GOVT 10 YR BOND YIELD INVERSE H&S SPOTTEDInverse head and shoulder pattern spotted in US GOVT 10 YR Bond yield depicting possible upside target.
Long
Understanding Impact of Bond Yield Differential on EquitiesOver the past decade the interest rate differential between US and India has been constantly going down. This has largely been due to stronger fiscal position of India and also gradual weakening of US Public Finances.
This has led to the Rupee becoming more stable against the Greenback, thereby reducing the rate of inflation in India.
Further, this has resulted in rising of equity markets over the last decade, and more importantly, the same setup is likely to stay or become better over the nex
Education
India Outlook 2024: Optimistic is an understatement!All factors seem to be falling in place for Indian Economy. And that will likely translate into huge gains for Indian currency, bonds and equities. This update speaks about the signals visible at the beginning of 2024.
Investments Opportunity if you are Looking safe investments then Look for Investing in Indian Gov Bonds , its my personal Opinion its available at discounted rate Now
Good luck
Long
Rupee best performer 2023. 2024 looks even better.Rupee stayed almost flat against the $ in 2023, depreciating 2% whereas other EM currencies depreciated more than 4%.
Equities soared in 2023 and if things go as they are appearing, then 2024 promises to be even better. There is lot of hop and optimism in the air already about Indian economy and that will most likely translate into higher returns for Indian equity investors.
If you are not in India - You are missing the biggest global party!
Fed stays pat. Equities soar. India's Goldilocks periodIndia has managed to keep its public finance in control and focus on capex led growth. That has ensured that India managed to stay afloat during the storm and now that the storm has subsided, India is on its way to race at higher knots.
This video is an update on the latest global macro developments
India Q2 FY24 GVA/ GDP Data Analysis India's FY24 Q2 GVA/ GDP Data has just been published and it is higher than estimates.
This video analyses the data and in an update to the earlier idea of impact of bond yields on equities.
