Government bonds
End of rate hike cycleUS fed rare hike cycle is near about to end in next 6-9 months or it has already reached to the peak. Reversal in inversion from above 0% level had given signals of stoppages of rate hike cycle in last 3 incidents. 1-2 more hike may come but that's end of upmove in interest rate. Time to lock 10 year bond yield.
Disc : It's not an investment advise to buy or sell
Will bond spike again ?Bond yield looks to have bottomed out at 1.12. Daily close abv 1.38 will start bullish HHHL structure. In such scenario , price may adance to 2.02 (minimum) on conservative slope and 2.34 - 2.60 on steep slope.
Minimum deadline as of now is 22nd Jan but if it attempts for 2.60 then deadline could extend to May 2022.
India interest rates seem to be close to a near term peak Every time the yield curve becomes flat or inverted, i.e. the gap between short-term and long-term rates becomes close to zero or negative, it has signaled a fall in yields over the next few months. While one can not be sure as the world economy is in a state of flux, history tells us that probability is high.
Also, one can notice that every time, the rates are peaking at lower levels than before. This is because of a fundamental change in inflationary trends Indian economy, where due to vario
Yield spreads favor EUR longsThe spread between the 10-year US and German government bond yields has dropped below a macro bullish trendline, characterizing the widening since 2008.
In other words, the market says the era of US rates being higher than German rates is passe! And therefore, holding EUR shorts is risky.
US10Y - Looks like a high is completedUS10Y could be in at its peak in current wave cycle to stary a ABC correction.
RSI on daily is also showing divergence indicating topping out sign. The correction in US10 will be good for equities.
View will be invalid if the high 4.123 is broken and wave 5 might get extended.
User discretion!
Bond Yield forecast , A New developing Trend in Bond Yield I am looking this accelerated Move in Interest rate and Bond Yield will lead to New high with past couple of Few Years around 4.9 % +
Expect the recession to hit by Mid of 2023 on Global basis , Excluding India Market , Where the consumptions ratio is More than 75.60 %
Indian Market may see small or Moderate effects of recession at the end of 2023 December
Consumer Goods, Most essential Goods will take off by price despite Government interventions
Look to be in the Consumer Goods equi
Rounding bottom (Cup & Handle) formation breakout?? #US10YCharts show breakout of rounding bottom formation on Weekly/Monthly charts of US 10year yields. Already got monthly closing above the breakout line.
If sustains above the breakout line minimum target for 10y yield will be around 5.5/6.5 pc. If so, there will bloodbath across all asset classes. Only below 3.4/3.3 negates the idea.
Brace! Brace! Brace! If true, difficult times ahead.
Hope I'm wrong.
Happy trading
10 Year GSEC Short 10 year GSEC should shed the gains in the next few days.
SL should be on or above 95.76 with appropriate 1:1 to 1:2 RR ratio at least
targets can be 94.5 , 93.67 levels
my choice would be to sell on a flat open with 60-70% position size
add more shorts on rise
add the rest when the low breaches
Recession Incoming? Here is what the technicals say
US10Y-TVC:US02Y
Economists: Recession incoming!
World Leaders: Recession is out of the books.
Whom to believe? Here is my analysis from a technical standpoint👇
As someone who believes in data driven decision making, the technicals point towards a recession. How so?
When the difference between the 10 year bond yield and 2 year bond yield becomes negative, it is known as an 'Inversion in bond yield curve' and this inversion has been a strong indicator in predicting recession.
Since this c
EURUSD recordingThere have been short-term abnormal fluctuations in interest rate spreads recently
For the euro, two sets of interest rate differentials inside and outside are still used to observe changes in the exchange rate.
The euro exchange rate has always been under obvious pressure. In principle, it is because of energy security issues. Europe's attitude towards Russia has always been relatively tough. Due to energy issues, European economic expectations have dropped significantly. At the same time, th























