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BBCA: Indonesia’s Deposit Machine Is Finally Getting CheaperIDX:BBCA has fallen from roughly Rp10,800 to around Rp6,300, a drawdown of more than 40% from its 2024 peak.
That is a significant reset for Bank Central Asia, a business that has historically commanded a premium because of its exceptional deposit franchise, profitability and asset quality.
The Master Buy Scanner V2 is getting interested — but the monthly chart is not ready yet.
Master Buy Scanner V2 — Monthly
Score: 2/3
Action: WATCH
Decision: WATCH
Entry quality: OK — 50%
Position size: NONE — 0%
Top recent: YES
WT cross: NO
Band 1: RED
Combined: GREEN 6/10
Bands synchronized: NO
Cycle: ACTIVE
Bars since BUY: Never
WT1 / WT2: -58.40 / -56.92
Momentum is already extremely depressed, with both WT lines below the lower accumulation zone.
But there is still no bullish WT cross, Band 1 remains red and synchronization is missing.
Interestingly, the 2-week chart already looks much stronger — 3/3 score, bullish WT cross, green Band 1, synchronized bands and Green 7/10 Combined. But the scanner explicitly marks that timeframe ADV BLOCK / USE 1M / 3W, so I would not override the monthly signal.
That leaves BBCA in a clear category:
Very interesting fundamentally — technically still WATCH.
The deposit franchise is the real moat
BCA’s biggest advantage is not simply loan growth. It is its enormous base of cheap transactional deposits.
At June 2026:
Total loans exceeded Rp1,000 trillion for the first time, reaching Rp1,036 trillion, +8% YoY.
CASA deposits reached Rp1,082 trillion, +10.2%.
CASA represented an exceptional 84.3% of total deposits.
Total third-party funds reached Rp1,284 trillion.
Net profit for H1 was Rp29.5 trillion.
That CASA ratio matters enormously for a bank. Current and savings accounts are generally cheaper funding than term deposits, giving BCA a structural funding-cost advantage over competitors.
The scale of the franchise is also remarkable: BCA served around 42 million customer accounts and processed more than 124 million transactions per day at June 2026.
Credit quality remains excellent
Despite the economic uncertainty, BCA's asset quality remains strong.
At H1:
NPL ratio: 1.9%
Loan-at-risk ratio: 4.9%
Productive financing: Rp802T, +11%
Corporate lending: +13.6%
Commercial & SME lending: +6.6%
In Q1, BCA also reported a 25.1% ROE, 27.0% capital adequacy ratio and 85.2% CASA ratio.
That combination — high ROE, low credit losses, abundant capital and cheap funding — explains why BBCA has historically traded at a premium to many other Indonesian banks.
There is one important pressure point: margins
The business is strong, but not everything is accelerating.
BCA's Q1 net interest margin declined from 5.8% to 5.4% YoY, as loan yields fell faster than funding costs. Risk-adjusted NIM declined from 5.3% to 4.8%.
Net interest income was essentially flat in Q1, although fee and commission income grew 14.2% and consolidated net profit still increased 3.8%.
This is probably one reason the scanner's growth outlook is not especially aggressive.
The bull case needs loan growth, fee income and continued CASA strength to offset pressure on spreads.
Valuation is finally much more interesting
The scanner gives BBCA 4/5 on valuation.
Its current readings include:
Earnings-price multiple: 13.35 — GREEN
Cash-flow-price: 11.31 — GREEN
Profit/share: 471.83
Cash yield: 1.45% — RED
For a bank, however, I would put less weight on conventional cash-flow and debt metrics than I would for an industrial company.
Deposits and financial liabilities are part of the operating model itself.
For BBCA, I care more about:
ROE + NIM + CASA + credit quality + capital adequacy + earnings valuation.
And on those measures, the current setup is considerably more interesting than it was near the highs.
Management is also buying back shares
BCA announced a share-repurchase program of up to Rp5 trillion, approved for a 12-month period beginning after the March 2026 AGM.
The company stated that the program would not materially affect its financial performance or business activities.
Buybacks are not the central BBCA thesis, but they become more accretive when the stock trades materially below previous valuation levels.
Key technical levels
Based on the chart:
Immediate support: Rp6,000–6,200
Major support: Rp5,000–5,300
First resistance: Rp6,700–7,000
Recovery confirmation: Rp7,500–8,000
Major resistance: Rp8,500–9,000
Previous highs: Rp10,500–10,800
The monthly oscillator is already where I want it.
Now I want the WT cross, Band 1 turning green and synchronization.
That would convert an attractive price into a genuinely attractive technical setup.
My classification: PREMIUM BUSINESS, WATCHING FOR THE TURN
BBCA currently offers:
21% scanner return on capital
2.5/3 business-quality score
Exceptional CASA funding
Low NPLs
Strong loan growth
High ROE
Large capital buffer
A materially lower valuation
Deeply oversold long-term momentum
But technically:
No monthly WT cross. Band 1 RED. No synchronization. No BUY event.
The 2W chart is already teasing the reversal, but the scanner itself tells me not to trust that timeframe yet.
Current verdict: WATCH — one of the more interesting quality names if the monthly turn confirms.
What would you do?
A) Start small around Rp6,300
B) Wait for the monthly scanner BUY
C) Wait for confirmation above Rp7,000
Master Buy Scanner V2:
Not financial advice. 
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