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Government bonds

IGB 10Y Monthly/Weekly UpdateIGB 10Y has risen by ~6 bps for the April month (8 bps for the last week), amid the continuation of geopolitical tensions and elevated crude oil prices. Market is pricing the higher inflation rates, which paves the way for rate hikes. This is also visible across OIS curve, with 6M OIS is trading around 5.62% which means market pricing in one rate hike, as on today, within 6 months. High crude oil prices for long periods will be negative for Indian economy as we majorly import our crude products
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateIGB 10Y has seen one of the strongest rally for the week, falling 21 bps for the week, amid the hopes of the US-Iran peace deal, even though attacks on Lebanon has continued by Israel which is against one of the ten points truce deal proposed by the Iran. As the peace talks have failed over the weekend, I expect the volatility to continue this week in the markets. Further, Crude oil fall and rupee strengthening have supported the yields amid the possible truce deal. For the coming week, I expect
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateIGB has seen another worst week in the recent times, rising around 20 bps for the last week over the previous week. This is primary because of the inflation and growth fears, apart from BoP and fiscal deficit impact due to the ongoing war. Market started to price in Rate hikes, which is being reflected in the yields across the curve as well. For the coming week, 7.15% should continue to act as a good support level. Any breach of this, could take the yields to 7.25% levels. On the other side, 7.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Monthly UpdateIndia’s 10‑year government bond yield (IGB) has seen one of the worst months since January 2018, closing around 6.96% and rising by 30 bps over the week. The ongoing US-Iran war raised concerns around fiscal deficit and inflation numbers due to raising crude oil prices and supply shortage in natural gas. The first half of the month, yields got support from RBI in terms of OMO purchases amounting to Rs. 1.76 Lakh Crore. During the second half of the month, RBI was out of the market and fiscal def
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateIndia’s 10‑year government bond yield (IGB) has seen one of the worst weeks in recent times, closing around 6.93% and rising by 17 bps over the week, as fiscal‑deficit fears have increased following the Indian government’s excise‑duty cut on OMCs. These concerns are primarily emanating from the ongoing U.S.–Iran war, which has led to supply‑risk worries for crude and natural gas. Although some relief has come in the form of Iran allowing Indian tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateBonds have traded largely within a range of 6.69%–6.77% amid geopolitical tensions in West Asia and rising oil prices, falling rupee, which are raising concerns around foreign reserves and inflation. With the RBI largely out of the market, geopolitical developments will play a major role in the coming week. 6.78% has been acting as a crucial level since February. A breach of this level is likely to push yields towards 6.88%. If geopolitical tensions cool off, yields can retrace towards 6.65%.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateBonds have traded largely within a range of 6.64%-6.76%, amid geopolitical tensions in West Asia, rising oil prices, and supply shortages due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. RBI purchases of ₹57,000 Cr in the first week of March, along with OMO purchases of ₹50,000 Cr each on March 9 and 13, supported yields within this range—even as inflation fears from geopolitical tensions weighed heavily. For the coming week, bond yields are expected to trade in a similar range of 6.64%-6.78%. A bre
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateLast week IGB 10Y traded within the descending triangle amid all the geopolitical tensions. Though RBI secondary buying helped the yields to go down, yields have been recovered after the buying has stopped from RBI on friday second half. OMO announcement of Rs. 1 lakh crore after the market hours on friday, can impact the opening of the yields. Along with this, rising brent can also have impact on the same in the upcoming week. As per the technicals, 6.64% remains crucial support level and 6.78
TVC:IN10YLong
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly/Monthly UpdateIGB 10Y has formed a descending triangle on daily charts, with 6.64% acting as a support level. A breakout from the pattern indicates a drop in the yields to 6.50%. Hence for the coming month are expected to trade in the range of 6.50%-6.78%. 6.65% has been acting as a crucial support since last few weeks and it expected to remain the same. If it breaches, this level, it likely to find support at 6.60%, which acted as resistance in the earlier range bound motion. On the upside, if it breaches 6
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
Intermarket Alert: Crude + Yield Curve + DollarCrude Oil (Brent & WTI) is approaching long-term descending trendline resistance on the daily chart. At the same time: • US 2Y–10Y yield spread is rebounding toward resistance • DXY is attempting to turn higher again This combination matters. --- 🔎 What This Means 1️⃣ Crude at resistance If rejected → inflation pressure cools → supportive for risk assets. If breakout sustains → inflation risk re-emerges → margin pressure for equities. 2️⃣ Yield spread near resistance (-0.60% zone) If ste
TVC:US02Y
by Punit190
Macro-Driven Risk PlanningAnticipate the Economy, Protect Capital, and Seize Opportunities In an era of rapid globalization, volatile markets, and frequent economic shocks, traditional risk management approaches are no longer sufficient. Investors, businesses, and financial institutions need a broader, more forward-looking framework—one that recognizes how macroeconomic forces shape risk and return across asset classes and industries. Macro-Driven Risk Planning is that framework. It is a strategic approach that places g
TVC:IN10YEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Stock Market LearningA Complete Guide for Retail Investors, HNIs, FIIs, DIIs & Institutional Participants The stock market is a dynamic ecosystem where different types of investors participate with distinct objectives, capital sizes, risk appetites, and strategies. For anyone serious about stock market learning—whether a beginner retail investor or an aspiring professional—understanding how Retail Investors, High Net-Worth Individuals (HNIs), Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), Domestic Institutional Investors
TVC:US10YEducation
by TechnicalExpress
US 10Y — Elevated but Structurally StabilizingLong-term yields remain elevated but contained within a broader corrective structure on the yearly timeframe. No impulsive expansion is visible that would signal systemic tightening or macro stress. This keeps the cost-of-capital environment restrictive but stabilizing , not disruptive. Invalidation: Only a sustained impulsive breakout above the long-term trendline would alter the macro regime. 📌 Structure defines risk. #US10Y #BondYields #InterestRates #MacroAnalysis #MarketStructure
TVC:US10Y
by kacraj