Our opinion on the current state of SOUTH32(S32)South32 (S32) is a major player in the global mining sector, initially spun off from BHP Billiton in 2015 to manage BHP's South African coal assets. Today, it stands as a diversified miner involved in the extraction of base metals and minerals like zinc, coal, aluminium, silver, lead, nickel, and manganese, with operations extending across South Africa, South America, and Australia.
Significant strategic shifts have been a hallmark of South32's operational strategy. In a notable move, the compa
Our opinion on the current state of ORIONMIN(ORN)Orion Minerals (ORN) is an Australian-based exploration company, also listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and the Australian Stock Exchange in Sydney. It focuses on the development of its copper and zinc assets in Prieska, South Africa. This mine, formerly operated by Anglovaal, ceased operations in 1990 after two decades of extracting significant quantities of zinc and copper concentrate. One of the critical challenges Orion faces at this site is managing the flooding that has occurred si
Our opinion on the current state of MERAFE(MRF)The Glencore-Merafe joint venture, a significant player in the ferrochrome industry, operates mines, furnaces, and smelters predominantly in Mpumalanga and Limpopo, South Africa. This joint venture is one of the largest ferrochrome producers globally, with the capacity to produce up to 2.3 million tons of ferrochrome annually. Merafe Resources, as part of this partnership, receives 20.5% of the proceeds, with the majority stake held by Glencore.
One of the critical challenges facing the operati
Our opinion on the current state of ELLIES(ELI)Ellies (ELI) is a South African electronics company that specializes in importing and distributing electrical products and supplying solar power solutions. Despite its early successes, Ellies has faced significant financial difficulties in recent years, highlighted by a dramatic decline in its share price from nearly R10 in 2013 to just 2 cents recently.
Ellies has attempted to pivot from its dependence on MultiChoice and DStv dish installations towards a focus on solar energy solutions, reflec
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Our opinion on the current state of CASHBIL(CSB)Cashbuild is the leading retailer in Southern Africa for building materials and hardware, primarily focusing on the home improvement market. The company's growth strategy in the region, characterized by slow economic activity, primarily revolves around expanding its store footprint. This expansion is viewed as a positioning strategy to capitalize on any potential recovery in the broader economic environment of Southern Africa.
For the six months ending on 24th December 2023, Cashbuild reported
Merafe Dividend messed up analysis to the upside of R2.00What a difference a dividend makes!
The payment went out on the 15 April 2024, and because there are derivatives that traders can trade off - the algorithm droped the share price quite significantly.
I don't think this company should be providing such high dividends if it wants growth in the share price, but hey I'm just the guy behind a computer.
So last time, we saw a Dividend release in September, it took 6 months for the share price to make it's way up and close the gap.
Now it is li
$JSETRU - Truworths: Potential Double Top AlertSee link below for previous analysis.
Truworths has met resistance in the 8441 to 8529cps zone.
Though premature to call this a Double Top, how price action reacts around the 6697cps neckline will hold the key for the short-term outlook.
I am neutral for now.
$JSEDRD - DRD Gold: Will The Laggard Play Catch-Up?See link below for previous analysis.
Gold and JSE Gold gold stock have been on a strong run lately.
DRD clearly did not get the memo as the stock is trending up but very slowly comapared to its peers and with the tailwinds provided by the gold price.
When such a disconnect occurs, one needs to take a deep look into the fundamentals which is beyond the scope of this analysis.
From an Elliott Wave perspective;
The bull run from 864 to 2546 cps is in five wave for wave 1.
The bear from 2546 to
SNT: some upside potential?A price action above 29500 supports a bullish trend direction.
Increase long exposure for a break above 30000.
The target price is set at 30900 (its 100% Fibonacci retracement level).
The stop-loss price is set at 28700 (its 50% retracement level).
Remains above its 200-day and a correction to its 200-day simple moving average will be regarded as an opportunity to increase long exposure.
MNP: bullish flag pattern?A price action above 32600 supports a bullish trend direction.
Increase long exposure for a break above 36600.
The target price is set at 40800 (its 100% Fibonacci retracement).
The stop-loss price is set at 33400 9its 50% retracement and also its 200-week simple moving average.
Keep in eye out for the MACD bullish crossover that might support the bullish flag pattern.
Bidvest in resting mode until the big breakout up to R290.00Bidvest has been moving in a sideways consolidation pattern called a Diamond Pattern since November 2023.
This is where there is a tug of war between the bulls and the bears.
BUt the fact that the price is holding quite well despite the international market crashes, means the buyers are holding the stock strong.
It will most like need a few more weeks/months for the pattern to play out. But once it breaks above the consolidation, we can easily see the price head up to R290.00
It's a patie
Our opinion on the current state of JUBILEE(JBL)Jubilee Metals Group (JBL) is a distinguished player in the metals recovery industry, primarily focused on the reprocessing of mine waste and surface materials. The company is listed on the London AIM market and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's Alt-X. Its geographical footprint spans across South Africa, the UK, Madagascar, Australia, and includes a joint venture in Zambia, underscoring its international operations and strategic diversification.
Jubilee primarily produces platinum group metals
Our opinion on the current state of BHP(BHG)BHP Group, headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, stands as one of the largest and most diversified global commodities companies. With operations primarily in the Americas and Australia, BHP employs around 62,000 people and engages in the production of essential commodities such as copper, iron ore, coal, oil, and gas.
Among its notable assets, BHP holds a 57.5% stake in the Escondida mine in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, which also yields gold and silver. It also owns significant
Our opinion on the current state of OCEANA(OCE)Oceana Group, Southern Africa’s largest fishing business, holds a prominent position in the industry with a significant presence not only locally but also in the United States through its subsidiary, Daybrook Fishing. The company's broad product range includes canned fish, fish meal, fish oil, hake, mackerel, lobster, and squid. Oceana is dual-listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the Namibian Stock Exchange, reflecting its substantial market reach.
The business is heavily regulat
Our opinion on the current state of ORIONMIN(ORN)Orion Minerals (ORN) is an Australian-based exploration company dual-listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) since September 2017 and the Australian Stock Exchange in Sydney. The company focuses on revitalizing the Prieska copper and zinc mine, which was previously operated by Anglovaal and ceased operations in 1990 after two decades of active mining, yielding significant quantities of zinc and copper concentrate.
Orion is exploring opportunities to reboot the Prieska mine using a mecha
Our opinion on the current state of INSIMBI(ISB)Insimbi Group is engaged in the manufacturing and supply of specialist products within the industrial sector. Their operations encompass sourcing, buying, packaging, processing, and recycling of ferrous and non-ferrous alloys, refractory and foundry materials, as well as plastic blow-moulding and injection moulding. The group also offers technical support to users of their products, which adds a service dimension to their primary manufacturing and supply operations.
In their financial update fo
$FSR - FirstRand: At An Interesting JunctureSee link below for previous analysis.
FirstRand has found the 7700-8000cps zone hard to push through.
The two sell-offs at this zone give what can be viewed as a Double Top.
Price has recently been consolidating in a contracting triangle which now looks to be breaking down.
The trend looks bearish and my initial target is 5000cps.
$JSEABG - ABSA: Heavy Resistance + Head & Shoulders = BearishSee link below for previous analysis.
A look at the bigger picture of ABSA shows that the stock has a very strong resistance zone between 20371 to 21100cps.
The stock has tested this zone on three occasions giving what can be viewed as a Triple Top over 7 years.
Interestingly, the bull market from March 2020 has culminated in a textbook Head & Shoulders pattern which has recently been validated by a break below the neckline.
The traditional Head & Shoulder price target is around 9000cps.
*Pric
CPI - In The MoneyThe chart below highlights the performance of Capitec Bank, which has declined by over 10% since last week's research note where clients were to a pending sell/short.
Included in my note was the following:
1. Weekly Chart highlighting the potential price path.
2. The TTG as of Friday's close.
3. The 7-day Technical Trend Rating shows the share as trading in overbought territory.
4. The 7-Week Technical Trend Rating shows the share as trading in 'high bullish momentum/approaching overbought'
Biggest micro lender could be hurt by the dollar (short)South Africa's biggest micro lender could be hurt by the dollar and global uncertainty around the world since the banks make profit from people paying back loans and putting in deposits, people deposit less when everything in the economy becomes expensive because savings lags when compared to current state of the value of money and the purchasing power people have. This year financial stocks could also be hurt by the uncertainty that comes with elections also the policies that the new or curre
Our opinion on the current state of AFRIMAT(AFT)Afrimat, an open-pit mining company based in Southern Africa, has developed a robust reputation for its diverse supply of composites, construction materials, and other commodities to various industries. Historically one of the best performing shares on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) until the end of 2015, Afrimat has navigated through periods of economic turbulence, including the COVID-19 crisis, and demonstrated resilience in a fluctuating commodities market.
The company reached a notab























