Page 7 | Ideas and Forecasts on Stocks — South Africa — TradingView

Our opinion on the current state of ANGGOLD(ANG)AngloGold Ashanti (ANG) is an international gold producer that used to have operations in South Africa (the last of which, Mponeng, has now been sold) and still has assets in the DRC, Tanzania, Ghana, Mali, and the US. It had some significant problems in bringing the Obuasi mine into production and with the Tanzanian government over royalties. The company has 14 operational mines. AngloGold has retained its listing on the JSE despite having no South African assets. On 14th July 2021, the comp

Our opinion on the current state of DISCOVERY(DSY)Discovery (DSY), developed and built by Adrian Gore over the past 25 years, offers the A/B income group of people a matrix of financial services that are inter-linked and cross-selling. Thus, a customer can begin with his/her medical aid and then add to that a variety of insurance products and now, most recently, personal banking products. Discovery's "Vitality" concept, which rewards clients for looking after their health in various ways, is extended to their driving record and a rewards sys

Our opinion on the current state of GLENCORE(GLN)Glencore (GLN) describes itself as, "...one of the world’s largest global diversified natural resource companies and a major producer and marketer of more than 90 commodities." The group's operations comprise around 150 mining and metallurgical sites, oil production assets, and agricultural facilities. With a strong footprint in both established and emerging regions for natural resources, Glencore's industrial and marketing activities are supported by a global network of more than 90 offices loc

Our opinion on the current state of METROFILE(MFL)Metrofile (MFL) is a company that specializes in records storage and management, image processing, and backup. The company has been listed since 1995 and has a 57.4% Black ownership. The Mineworkers Investment Company owns 38.64% of the business, and Sanlam owns 5%. The company's record management division has 52 facilities at 27 locations with over 100,000 square meters of offices and warehousing. Housatonic Partners, a US company, made an offer to buy 100% of Metrofile for 330c per share bu

Our opinion on the current state of MPACT(MPT)Mpact (MPT) is a large producer of paper and plastics packaging in Southern Africa. It recycles paper and cardboard and makes corrugated cardboard containers for a variety of industries, as well as polystyrene trays for the food industry. It has 20 manufacturing operations, with South African sales accounting for 86% of its business. It employs over 5,000 people. The business is impacted by the general level of consumer spending (which has been depressed because of COVID-19 and was improving

Our opinion on the current state of SIBANYE-S(SSW)Sibanye (SSW) is a mining house that has been on a rapid acquisition trail, accumulating platinum and gold mines in South Africa and America and now broadening its scope to include base metals and minerals, especially so-called "green" metals. The company is run by Neal Froneman, who is well-known in the mining industry for his toughness, expertise, and experience. Froneman has said that he intends to retire in about 2024/5 but plans to double the size of the company before he does. Sibanye i

Our opinion on the current state of VODACOM(VOD)Vodacom (VOD) is South Africa's largest airtime and data provider for cell phones. It is a subsidiary of the international company Vodaphone. Its competitors are MTN, Cell-C, and Telkom. The cell phone industry has been hammered by a steady decline in voice revenue, which has to some extent been compensated by a sharp rise in data usage. The disadvantage which Vodacom has as an investment is that a foreign parent owns it. This was graphically demonstrated when its share price fell 7% in two d

Our opinion on the current state of TRENCOR(TRE)Trencor's (TRE) primary asset is 47,78% of Textainer, a US-listed renter of shipping containers (Twenty-foot units or TEUs). It should be noted that Trencor spent R100m buying back its own shares between 4-10-18 and 6-12-18. Investors have been unhappy with the fact that Textainer has been underperforming its competitors. For example, Triton had a return on equity of 16% compared to Textainer's 1,7%. Trencor has unbundled its holding of Textainer into the hands of its shareholders, which r

Our opinion on the current state of AFRIMAT(AFT)Afrimat (AFT) is an open-pit mining company that supplies composites, construction materials, and other commodities to a range of industries in Southern Africa. Until the end of 2015, Afrimat was one of the best-performing shares on the JSE. The share broke up out of a three-year sideways pattern, which included the COVID-19 crisis. It rose to a peak of R76 on 6th April 2022 but has been declining since then as the commodities cycle came to an end. The acquisition of the Demaneng iron mine

Our opinion on the current state of AMPLATS(AMS)Anglo American Platinum (AMS), or Amplats, is the second-largest platinum-producing company in the world (after Sibanye), producing a large portion of the world's platinum. It is owned 77,62% by Anglo American. Amplats was one of the first platinum mining companies in South Africa to move away from expensive deep-level mining towards shallower, more mechanised mining. The company has reduced the number of mines it is operating from 18 to 7 over the past five years, decreased overheads by 50%,

Our opinion on the current state of AVENG(AEG)The once-massive construction company, Aveng (AEG), which traded at R69 a share in 2008, was reduced to a penny stock. This sad demise was brought about by a number of factors. Among these, the reduction in construction spending following the sub-prime crisis has been critical. The government ceased infrastructure development after the 2010 World Cup, which had a further detrimental impact. This was then followed up by the Competition Commission's R1,4bn fines in the construction industry.

Our opinion on the current state of QUANTUM(QFH)Quantum (QFH) is in the chicken business. It has four divisions - Animal Feeds, Eggs and Layers, Broilers, and an African division where it sells related products. Quantum was obviously badly impacted by the drought in Southern Africa, but since that abated and the price of animal feeds came down, it has benefited from the much higher prices of eggs and the lower cost of feeds. In general, the chicken business is a tough business. It is labour-intensive, which creates exposure to union act

Our opinion on the current state of BATS(BTI)British American Tobacco (BTI) describes itself as a "leading consumer goods company" - which is a euphemistic way of saying that they produce and sell an enormous number of cigarettes and related products worldwide. It is also the second-largest company on the JSE after Naspers. In recent decades, cigarette companies have become increasingly oppressed. Their ability to advertise their products and even package them has been severely curtailed in many countries. They are seen to be exploiting

Our opinion on the current state of IOCO(IOC)Previously called Enterprise Outsourcing Holdings (EOH), Ioco was Africa's largest information technology company with involvement in almost every aspect of computer applications. At one point, the company had 11,000 staff members, but that has now been reduced to 6,151. It was, until August 2015, the darling of the JSE because it had a long track record of steadily improving profits. It made a peak of R178 per share at a P:E of 35. An unsuccessful attempt to exceed that high (i.e., a double

Our opinion on the current state of ITLTILE(ITE)Italtile (ITE) is a franchisor of tiles, sanitary ware, flooring, and home finishing products - which it manufactures and wholesales itself. The company is controlled by the Ravazotti family. It has 206 stores and six online web stores. It also has a property portfolio of retail and industrial properties worth about R4.3bn. The company has acquired 95.47% of Ceramic Industries and 71.54% of Ezee Tile, which it styles as its manufacturing business (as opposed to its retail business). The co

Our opinion on the current state of LABAT(LAB)Labat (LAB) is a 57% black-owned investment holding company that listed on the JSE in 1999. The company buys and improves subsidiaries and then sells them for a profit. At the moment, Labat has two operations - South African Micro-Electronic Systems (SAMES) and Labat Logistics. On 14th April 2020, the company announced that it had acquired 70% of Biodata, an East London-based company that is focused on cannabis healing. The acquisition is to be paid for in shares. The market for cannabis i

Our opinion on the current state of IMPLATS(IMP)Impala Platinum Holdings (IMP), or Implats, is the world's third-largest platinum group metals (PGM) producer. It has been suffering over the past seven years from aggressive union action and legislative uncertainty. The CEO says that they are focused "...on developing a portfolio of long-life, low-cost, shallow, modern, mechanised mining assets." This is similar to what Anglo American Platinum has been doing for the past ten years. The market for platinum itself has been damaged by a redu

Our opinion on the current state of BRIMSTON(BRT)Brimstone (BRT) is a black-controlled investment holding company with a diverse portfolio of holdings. It owns: 1. 54.2% of Sea Harvest, which is a listed fishing company and has a market capitalisation of just over R4.5bn. 2. 100% of Lion of Africa, a loss-making insurance company, which decided in November 2018 to cease operations and close its doors. 3. 100% of House of Monatic, a loss-making clothing manufacturer. 4. 24% of Oceana, the largest fishing company in South Africa with

Our opinion on the current state of KAP KAP International Holdings (KAP) is a diversified industrial company that produces and markets timber, chemicals (PET and related chemicals), bedding, and car parts. It also has a logistics division. The acquisitions of Safripol and Hosaf were integrated into a polymers business under the Safripol name. The bedding division showed strong growth with new investment in infrastructure and manufacturing capability. Growth in the automotive parts division was muted. This company was 43% owned b

Our opinion on the current state of NORTHAM(NPH)Northam (NPH) is a fully empowered platinum mining company that operates in the Bushveld complex. In the current difficult legislative environment, where the 3rd mining charter is regarded as unfriendly from an investment point of view, Northam is probably the only mining house that is buying up new properties. It has come to an arrangement with Anglo American to exploit a property adjacent to its Zondereinde mine (the deepest platinum mine in South Africa). It has also bought Eland Platin

Our opinion on the current state of TRELLIDOR(TRL)RCL is a large producer of food, sugar products, and chicken in South Africa, which is owned 80.4% by Remgro. The company owns a number of very well-known South African brands such as 5 Star maize meal, Farmer Brown, and Yum Yum peanut butter. It competes with overseas imports of sugar, chicken, and other foods. It was impacted by the listeriosis outbreak, which damaged the market for processed meats and caused costs estimated at about R158m. The company has been impacted by the weak econo

Our opinion on the current state of RCL RCL is a large producer of food, sugar products, and chicken in South Africa, which is owned 80.4% by Remgro. The company owns a number of very well-known South African brands such as 5 Star maize meal, Farmer Brown, and Yum Yum peanut butter. It competes with overseas imports of sugar, chicken, and other foods. It was impacted by the listeriosis outbreak, which damaged the market for processed meats and caused costs estimated at about R158m. The company has been impacted by the weak econo

Our opinion on the current state of KUMBA-IO(KIO)Kumba (KIO) is a highly successful iron mining operation which is owned (79%) and controlled by Anglo American. The share price fell to as little as R223 in March 2020 because of COVID-19 but recovered to R668 before falling on the March 2022 quarterly results. Importantly, exports make up 94% of the company's total sales - which means that it is not heavily dependent on local sales but is vulnerable to any strengthening of the rand and the effectiveness of rail transport to ports. The

Our opinion on the current state of KAL Group(KAL)Previously, Kaap Agri, the KAL Group is an agricultural company owned 40.9% by Zeder, which is, in turn, 43.7% held by PSG. The company operates through over 190 retail outlets offering a wide range of products and services mainly to the farming community. Kaap Agri has seven divisions: (1) Pakmark offers a wide range of packaging materials for the local and export markets, especially to the fruit industry. (2) Agrimark has over 70 stores in South Africa and Namibia offering a wide ran