Long
Is the UK housing bubble about to burst? Two years of pain aheadSince the late 1980s the UK House Price Index (3M YoY) continues to trade within a longterm descending channel of lower highs and lower lows. Growth is shown above the horizontal black line, decline below. Every cyclical bounce has failed beneath the upper band of this trend with 1992 & 2008 marking the two major cycle lows.
Each rally since has produced progressively lower peaks (2002, 2022). The recent move in 2024–25 is labelled as a Lower High (Black arrows) within this trend. The last time this happened was back in April 2007, just before the market experienced a significant collapse to -20% YoY returns. The UK property market may be about to re-enter that period.
However, there’s more to this picture than first appears. To call it nefarious would be kind. During my research of this idea it is difficult not to feel angered at the situation, speaking as a Gen x.
Throughout the first 18 year cycle shown above workers saw relatively healthy wage growth during the housing boom that followed the 1990s until 2007.
1992-2008: You could refer to this as the “Normal” period, not long after my first degree, and entering the workplace we had:
1. A non Inflationary environment, consistent growth
2. Consistent 2% annual real wage growth
3. Low inflation, steady economic expansion
4. Strong productivity growth supporting wage increases
5. 32% total real wage growth over 16 years
Compare this with 2008-2025: Let’s call it “The great stagnation”:
1. Financial crisis triggers unprecedented wage decline
2. Longest period of wage stagnation in modern history
3. Productivity growth collapsed post 2008
4. Austerity, Brexit, and inflation crises compounded effects
5. Real wages still below 2008 levels in 2025!
The contrast between these two periods represents one of the most dramatic shifts in UK economic history. While workers enjoyed steady improvements in living standards from 1992 to 2008, post 2008 has seen real wages stagnate for over 15 years, a phenomenon unprecedented since modern records began.
The period since 2008 is historically noteworthy, not just because of stagnate wages, but the references in history. These levels of wage stagnation were last seen during the interwar period (1919–1939), affordability under pressure just as in the past 15 years. Before that the early industrial revolution stagnation (1790–1830s), wages flat while costs (food, housing) rose. That’s incredible, it is why many economists call this the worst period for UK pay growth in 200 years.
Replace price against hours worked per square meter of shelter obtainable to compare past and present times and you discover why most workers today shared similar struggles to the historical examples. It astonishing to be able to make those comparisons. Especially during times of peace.
But it doesn’t stop there…
Similar to the USA, many folks have seen personal levels of debt grow out of control as markets have soared. The money was still needed in the absence of wage growth so people borrowed, even if it was to purchase groceries.
Throughout 2008 to 2025 the FTSE 100 has grown 150% as workers are rewarded with 0% wage increases. Coming from a working class background, those statistics are infuriating. This isn’t a lost decade, it is a lost double decade, 20 years of no wage growth.
Why talk about wage growth in a house market forecast?
Globally, the real estate market has seen one of the most dramatic growth periods of recent history, especially as measured against medium incomes (when ignoring price). However workers are not seeing wage growth, so why are house prices so high?
If you’re not familiar with Garys Economics, I highly recommend you hope over to his channel on Youtube. Throughout his content you’ll be presented with facts on wealth chasing a limited resource. Regardless of the source of this cash, it seeks a return.
In normal times house price growth is driven by simple factors like supply and demand, wage growth, productivity.
Today none of those factors apply.
The core reason for the asset price crisis is that wealthy individuals accumulate billions of dollars and invest this money into assets deemed safe, which drives up prices. That’s the only core reason. The growth in real estate valuations is nothing to do with the conditions seen from 1990 to 2007 and everything to do with money seeking a safe return.
It is important to understand that the money that caused the market bubble can equally cause it to deflate just as fast.
British 10 year Gilt (Treasury)
If there’s one thing the rich hate, it is losing money. Underperforming assets are like a wound to a rich person, growing more painful the longer it is unattended. Right now you can receive a 4.5% yield on the 10 year Gilt. Maintenance free asset management!
Many wealthy individuals seek value protection through asset purchases such as housing, as a result, the cost of housing is artificially inflated. However if a similarly safe asset such as a treasury begin to outperform real estate...
It is a very real dynamic, wealthy investors often move capital toward the safest asset that still preserves (or grows) purchasing power. Gold is overbought, housing a bubble, the debt markets is the last game in town.
If Treasuries (or other government bonds) begin offering yields that are not only safe but meaningfully higher than real estate’s effective returns (after accounting for taxes, maintenance, illiquidity, etc.), capital can and does rotate out of property and into debt instruments. This is especially true when wealthy individuals care less about maximising upside and more about preserving value without headaches.
The technical analysis
The above monthly chart compares the UK housing market with the 10 year Gilt. Notable observations:
1. The 10 year Gilt breakout from a 42 year downtrend
2. The house price index now prints bearish divergence
3. A failed support channel in price action and RSI.
Conclusion
You may have once heard “Above all else, the Bond market dictates all”, when treasuries pay more, real estate pays less. Housing isn’t inflated by bricks and mortar, but by capital seeking safety. As such the rich will chase the safest yield, not the prettiest house. If bonds beat homes, money will move faster than you can blink. Especially with the prospect of double digit corrections as treasures return positive yields. The rich will lead this market correction selling to cash buyers long before Mr and Mrs Joe Bloggs read about it. In the end wealth preserves itself by rotation, not loyalty. Bitcoin maximalists whimper at the thought of billions of dollars of Bitcoin sold off over the last several weeks as price action flirts with all time highs. That is wealth rotation, not loyalty in action. The same will happen soon enough with housing, just takes more time.
Ww
These views are personal and should not be interpreted as reflecting the position of my company or known associates. 2026 ATH Rally? PMI and US Net Liquidity + M2 / US DebtIn this study, we analyze the ISM Purchasing Managers Index which while in an uptrending parallel channel of sorts, it also shows that the 2025 'Bull Run' never got close to projected 'top' levels.
Almost as if we never had the 2025 bull market top rally. Could it just be DELAYED?
While The ISM Manufacturing PMI is holding above the critical 50 threshold indicates continued economic expansion, which historically correlates with risk-on sentiment in crypto markets.
At 52.7 (+0.57%), we're seeing steady manufacturing growth that could support Bitcoin's current consolidation phase around $79,400, but NOT a rip-roaring market rally to new ATH.
Also, we can see from the US Net Liquidity + M2 / US Debt chart (lower frame) that we also didn't get the correlating rise in liquidity we usually see while building a new ATH on Bitcoin.
In fact, the prior floor for this back in 2011, now seems to be acting as resistance, rejecting in mid-2025. This points to a weak economic picture, and we'd need to see this ratio improve.
Either by dramatically lowering our close to $40T in debt (not likely anytime soon) and/OR seeing the 'Money Printer Go Brrrr' again, with post Covid-like stimulus and ideally lower interest rates and inflation. (I'm not a Macro guy, so don't beat me up here if I'm off a bit).
Either way, this chart tells the 'hidden story' of why we didn't see the massive pump to $150k - $200k Bitcoin in the last Bull Run...
But with improving economic and regulatory conditions... Could we?
For example, if / when the following tailwinds pick up:
- Final approval and signing of the Clarity Act into Law
- Easing of Middle-East tensions and an end to the Iran war
- New Fed-Chief approval and at least signaling lower rates later in 2026
- Fed QE and money printing to stimluate the economy
- ETF inflows continuing to increase and Strategy strong buying
- Potentially 're-valuing' Gold to current prices and selling enough to lower the US Debt
We could get our 2nd phase of the bull-cycle into 2026-2027.
I'd also like to point out that typically the cycle lows don't fully resolve and turn higher until 13 months after the previous highs, which points toward the Sept / October 2026 time-frame.
Cycle theory also points to this time-frame for the 4-year cycle lows to be in.
Key observations from this analysis:
- PMI above 50 typically supports risk asset rallies
- Current reading suggests economic stability vs recession fears
- Manufacturing strength often precedes crypto institutional inflows
- Historical correlation shows BTC tends to rally 2-4 weeks after sustained PMI strength
- Improved economic conditions per above could turn things around by Sept / Oct 2026
Scenarios:
Bullish Case: Sustained PMI above 52 could drive BTC toward $85k-$90k resistance
Bearish Case: PMI reversal below 50 would likely accelerate the correction to $70k support
This economic backdrop, combined with my previous technical analysis showing potential 50% corrections, creates an interesting divergence worth monitoring closely.
The next PMI release on June 1st will be critical for confirming this trend.
What's your take on how economic indicators should factor into crypto analysis?
Drop your thoughts below. Warsh vs Powell: who will dominate the Fed?Jerome Powell steps down as Chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States on Friday, May 15, and Kevin Warsh becomes the new Chair of the Fed. However, Jerome Powell is expected to remain a member of the FOMC for some time, as a governor. Powell will therefore retain a vote in upcoming monetary policy decisions and will maintain weight and influence over other members of the FOMC.
So in the context of a cohabitation between Jerome Powell (now simply a governor) and Kevin Warsh (new Chair of the Fed, pro-Trump and pro-market), who will actually dominate the Fed’s monetary policy decisions?
The answer is not as simple as a head-on duel. Power within the FOMC is structurally collegial: 12 voting members, a simple majority, and above all a decision-making process based on building consensus beforehand. Certainly, the Chair, here Kevin Warsh, will control the agenda, the timing, and the communication, which gives him a decisive advantage. But he cannot impose a decision alone if a majority does not form behind him.
In this context, Jerome Powell remains a key player. Even without the chairmanship, he retains very strong institutional credibility, a solid internal network, and significant intellectual influence over several governors. He can therefore structure a “pragmatic” bloc capable of counterbalancing an overly dovish or overly political pro-Trump orientation.
But the true pivot of the system is neither Warsh nor Powell. It is John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. His role is unique: he is a permanent voter, oversees the execution of market operations, and historically sits at the center of consensus. In practice, no major decision is sustainably made without his alignment.
Thus, the real balance of power will depend on Warsh’s ability to rally Williams. If Williams aligns with Powell, a moderate majority bloc may emerge, limiting the influence of the new Chair. Conversely, if Williams shifts toward Warsh, the balance of the committee may quickly tilt in favor of a more aggressive or pro-market stance.
Ultimately, Warsh will dominate the form (agenda, communication), but Powell and Williams will shape the substance. The Fed will not be led by a single individual, but by a subtle balance, with Williams acting as the true arbiter. However, if Jerome Powell eventually leaves the FOMC, then Kevin Warsh would truly take control, implying a strong influence of President Donald Trump on US monetary policy.
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Education 
USA military conflicts vs InflationWar costs money.
It seems the US Government remains flash with the cash despite a near $39 trillion dollars of debt. Where does the money come from to fund the conflict?
International lenders? Unlikely. Many international lenders are unwinding US treasury positions.
The US Tax payer? Not really a popular option with mid-term elections coming up.
Where will the money come from? Wars are expensive, before, during and after. Right now the US Government would pick a fight with its own reflection. So where does the money come from?
Stealth tax.
One of the largest wealth transfers in history is on the verge of getting underway. That is the transfer of purchasing power from one set of hands to the next. Are you going to be a provider of cash or a beneficiary? Decide now.
While retail traders and investors exit the equity market waiting for “the crash” that’ll never come, others increase exposure to precious metals after a 400% rally in price in less than 10 years.
“The dollar is about to crash”
Easily the most misunderstood narrative circulating the internet at the moment.
On the above monthly the chart core US inflation rate is shown. You’ll notice how inflation soared each time the US increased its involvement in overseas conflict.
What I want you see on the above chart is how inflation soared during periods of intense US conflict. This was the result of dollar devaluation. That’s how the conflicts were funded. The devaluation period to come is mostly likely begun as the FED purchases debt.
Devaluation means inflation, lots of it. Most people don’t see it coming until it’s too late. Most will not realise realise they’re paying for the conflict by working more hours for less pay than they did the day before.
** Military conflict correlates with inflation mainly when it’s financed by monetising debt or occurs alongside independent supply shock, not simply by virtue of happening. **
How do YOU benefit?
Be invested.
Gold / Silver is not an investment, it’s an insurance. Be invested in businesses that are generating a profit generating revenue. Be invested in companies that are undervalued oversold yet turning a profit. Hint, Open AI isn’t one of them.
Inflation to sky rocket
I know, an unpopular statement. It causes followers to hit the “un-follow” button and exit the chat quicker than a whippet with a bum full of dynamite. That’s fine, but it does not make the facts of the chart less relevant.
Overlayed on the main chart below is the S&P 500 (black) and Dow Jones industrial average index (Green). Did those markets crash or rally during the conflict?
No. They rallied. Not just a little bit, but a lot.
Do you remember this post?
“ S&P 500 to 10,000 inside the next 4 years - December 2025 ”
Read it carefully.
This is not an endorsement of the US Stock market or expected strengthening of the US economy to come. A 10k S&P 500 in a handful of years is no different to a 7k S&P 500 today if the dollar drops in value by about 30% (roughly 40–43% cumulative inflation).
Wait what 30-40% cumulative inflation?!
Yeah you read the right, hence the part from me to you, be invested. Don’t be a typical retail trader hoarding cash or shiny precious metals waiting for armageddon. This is the wealth transfer, from cash holders to asset holders.
Ww
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Disclaimer
As always, these are personal views and shared for educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research and manage risk accordingly. $CNBOT - Balance of Trade (April/2026)ECONOMICS:CNBOT $84.82 Billion
April/2026
source: General Administration of Customs
- China’s trade surplus narrowed to $84.82 billion in April 2026 from $95.85 billion in the same period of 2025, but surpassed market expectations of $83.3 billion.
Export growth accelerated sharply to 14.1%, reaching a record high of $359.44 billion, up from March’s 2.5% rise and much faster than forecasts of 7.9%, due to seasonal factors, as companies rushed to stockpile components from the manufacturing powerhouse amid fears that the Iran war could push input costs even higher.
Meanwhile, imports surged 25.3% year-on-year to $274.62 billion, above expectations of 15.2% and marking the second consecutive month of record-high imports, though slightly lower than the 27.8% jump in the previous month.
The trade surplus with the US stood at $23.07 billion in April.
For the first four months of 2026, China’s trade surplus reached $347.70 billion, down from $368.8 billion in the same period of 2025, with exports rising 14.5% while imports grew at a faster 23.6%. $USUR -U.S Unemployment Rate (April/2026)ECONOMICS:USUR 4.3%
April/2026
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The US unemployment rate held at 4.3% in April 2026, in line with market expectations. However, the number of unemployed rose by 134,000 to 7.37 million, while total employment fell by 226,000 to 162.62 million.
The labor force shrank by 92,000 to 170.0 million, pushing the participation rate down 0.1 percentage point to 61.8%, its lowest since October 2021.
The employment rate also declined to 59.1%, the lowest in over four years, from 59.2%. Meanwhile, the broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, increased to 8.2% from 8.0%. Short 
Short
Short 
$EUIRYY - E.U Inflation Rate (April/2026)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
April/2026
source: EUROSTAT
- Euro area annual inflation climbed to 3% in April 2026, the highest since September 2023, up from 2.6% in March and slightly above market expectations of 2.9%, according to a preliminary estimate.
Energy costs soared 10.9%, the most since February 2023, driven by the Middle East conflict. Also, prices rose faster for non-energy industrial goods (0.8% vs 0.5%), and food, alcohol, and tobacco (2.5% vs 2.4%).
On the other hand, services inflation slowed to 3.0%, from 3.2%. The core rate, excluding volatile energy, also cooled to 2.2% from 2.3%.
Among the Eurozone’s largest economies, inflation accelerated in Germany (2.9% vs 2.8%), France (2.5% vs 2%), Italy (2.9% vs 1.6%) and Spain (3.5% vs 2.4%). China Real Estate: BIS Real Residential Property Price Decline
China Real Estate: BIS Real Residential Property Price Index at 86.79 (Q4 2025)
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) real residential property price index for China (2010 = 100) closed Q4 2025 at **86.79**.
- ~23% below the 2021 peak (~113)
- In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, prices have now returned to levels last seen in the mid-2000s
**Key fundamental drivers:**
- Post-2020 deleveraging policy (“Three Red Lines”) restricted developer financing
- Persistent oversupply from years of high construction
- Weak demand: demographics, high household debt, and lower confidence in property as an investment
Property sales volumes have been contracting for multiple years.
**Base-case outlook (2026 onward):**
- Continued gradual adjustment is the consensus view among analysts (S&P Global, China Index Academy, Reuters polls)
- Primary sales expected down 6–14%, with modest further price softening (2–4%)
- Policy emphasis is now on stabilization and inventory absorption, not a return to the prior high-leverage model
- Broader effects remain a drag on construction (~20–25% of GDP historically), local government land-sale revenue, and global commodity demand
This is a structural rebalancing, not a short-term cycle. Data from official BIS/FRED series (QCNR628BIS). Next quarterly update expected late April 2026.
