$EUIRYY -E.U CPI (August/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY 2.1%
August/2025
source: EUROSTAT
- Euro area consumer price inflation rose to 2.1% in August 2025,
slightly above both July’s pace and market expectations of 2.0%, preliminary data showed.
Unprocessed food prices climbed 5.5% from 5.4% in July,
while energy costs fell 1.9%, a smaller decline than the previous month’s 2.4% drop. Services inflation eased to 3.1% from 3.2%, and prices for processed food, alcohol, and tobacco rose at a slightly slower pace of 2.6% versus 2.7%.
Non-energy industrial goods inflation held steady at 0.8%. Core inflation—which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco—remained unchanged at 2.3%, marking its lowest level since January 2022. 
Short
Interest Rates: The Hidden Driver of Markets📈 U.S. Interest Rates: From the Volcker Era to Today & Why September Could Be a Turning Point
When people talk about “the Fed,” they often forget just how much its decisions shape every asset class — from stocks and bonds to real estate and crypto. To understand the setup for September 2025, we need to look back. Because history doesn’t repeat… but it sure does rhyme.
🔙 The Journey Since the 1980s
1980s – The Volcker Shock
Paul Volcker took interest rates above 20% to crush runaway inflation. Painful? Yes. But it restored credibility and anchored inflation expectations for decades.
1990s – Stability & the Tech Boom
Rates gradually declined. Cheap(er) credit fueled the U.S. expansion and helped ignite the dot-com bubble.
2000s – Crises & Responses
Early 2000s: Post-dot-com crash, the Fed cut rates sharply.
2008: The Global Financial Crisis hit → rates to near 0%, QE was born.
2010s – The Low-Rate Era
This was the decade of “easy money.” Stocks soared, housing recovered, and crypto emerged in a world shaped by monetary stimulus.
2020s – Pandemic, Inflation & Hiking Cycle
2020: Zero rates + record stimulus.
2022 onward: Inflation surged → the Fed started its most aggressive hiking cycle since the Volcker era.
📊 Where We Stand in 2025
Current rates: at multi-decade highs.
Inflation: cooled off, but still above the Fed’s 2% target.
Growth: showing cracks (manufacturing weakness, slowing jobs data).
Markets are asking: Will the Fed blink in September?
🌍 Why September Matters
Pause Scenario: The Fed holds steady. Markets breathe, risk assets stabilize.
Cut Scenario: If growth data worsens, even a small cut could spark rallies across risk-on assets.
Hike Scenario (unlikely): Would shock markets and hit crypto hardest.
💡 Impact by Asset Class
Stocks: Lower rates = higher valuations. Tech especially sensitive.
Bonds: A cut means yields fall, prices rise.
Dollar: A pause/cut could weaken the dollar → bullish for commodities & crypto.
Crypto: The big winner if liquidity returns. Historically, Bitcoin thrives when real rates fall. Altcoins even more so.
⚡ My Personal View
I don’t see the Fed risking a fresh hike here. Inflation’s not dead, but neither is growth. My base case:
September pause with dovish signals.
First rate cut possible late 2025 if data keeps softening.
For crypto, that means:
Neutral short-term.
Bullish medium-term if liquidity trickles back into the system.
🚀 Every market cycle is shaped by rates. From the Volcker shock to the birth of Bitcoin, the Fed has always been in the driver’s seat. September might not be “the” moment, but it could be the beginning of a major narrative shift.
❓What’s your call — pause, cut, or surprise hike? And how do you see crypto reacting? Drop your thoughts Education 
Long 
Central Banks, the Great Paradox of 2025This year 2025 reveals a paradox in the floating exchange market (Forex), a paradox I can describe as rare. The foundation of currency movements in the foreign exchange market lies in the divergence of monetary policies. In other words, it is the difference in the trajectory of interest rates among the world’s main central banks that usually drives the long-term trend of major USD pairs on Forex.
But this year 2025 shows a rare configuration: the divergence of monetary policies has had almost no effect on FX.
Why? Because the US dollar is (by far) the weakest currency in FX in 2025, even though the Fed has not touched its interest rate and this rate remains the highest among the major central banks, as shown in the main chart of this analysis.
1) In 2025, the divergence of monetary policies has not influenced FX
The table below compares the evolution of the interest rates of the major central banks as well as their inflation status. Except for the Bank of Japan, all major central banks have cut their interest rates several times this year as inflation targets were reached or approached.
The Fed alone has not touched the federal funds rate, and its rate is now the highest among all central banks.
The table below was prepared by analyst Vincent Ganne for Swissquote and offers a comparison of the monetary policies of major central banks in 2025.
The infographic below, sourced from Bloomberg, compares the evolution of central bank interest rates worldwide in 2025.
2) Here is the paradox: the US dollar is the weakest FX currency this year (down 10%) despite the favorable US rates
Not only is the US dollar the only major FX currency that has fallen in 2025, but this decline is significant — a 10% drop.
This fall of the US dollar is in total contradiction with the divergence of monetary policies, which should have led to a stronger dollar against a basket of major currencies. The question now is what trend the US dollar will take if the Fed eventually decides to cut its rate at the end of the year.
3) Ultimately, the role of monetary policy divergence is temporarily suspended as the US economy faces structural uncertainties
• Tariffs and their impact on US economic growth prospects
• Rising US public debt and the fiscal/budgetary policy of the Trump Administration (“Big Beautiful Bill”)
These two structural challenges have neutralized the divergence of monetary policies for this year, but it should regain its influence in 2026, potentially allowing a rebound of the US dollar on FX.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
85% probability of a rate cut on Wednesday September 17 (FED)Jerome Powell's press conference on Friday August 22 was eagerly awaited, as he was expected to outline the FED's planned monetary policy path between now and the end of the year. It should be remembered that the federal funds rate has not fallen since December 2024, and that the US labor market is beginning to show signs of weakness. But the PCE inflation rate is moving closer to the 3% threshold than to 2%, and Jerome Powell has so far been uncompromising on the inflation target.
No FED pivot? Technical pivot? The Fed's real pivot?
These were the questions I posed in the article I published last Friday, prior to Powell's press conference in Jackson Hole.
During his speech in Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell highlighted the growing threats to US employment. He hinted that monetary easing could soon be on the cards, while stressing the uncertainty surrounding inflation due to tariffs.
So, can we finally decide between :
1) No FED pivot?
2) The FED's technical pivot (an isolated rate cut)
3) Real FED pivot (a series of rate cuts up to December 2025)
Yes, I think we can now rule out the scenario of no pivot by the end of the year. On the other hand, the question of whether the FED will pass a simple technical pivot or engage in a real pivot remains open.
Powell was careful to remain cautious. The effects of the tariffs on consumer prices are now visible and could fuel more persistent inflation. This uncertainty explains why the Fed has yet to commit to a clear path.
The Fed's choice for September 17, October 29 and December 10 will depend on the following factors:
- PCE inflation on Friday August 29
- The NFP report on Friday September 5
- The balance of power between the 12 voting members of the FOMC (I wrote an article on this subject last week)
Differences within the central bank further complicate the situation. Some officials see an urgent need to cut rates, given the weakness in job creation confirmed by the July report. Others are more cautious, fearing that premature rate cuts could boost inflation. A third trend proposes a gradual approach: a limited adjustment followed by a pause to assess the effects on the economy.
In any case, Powell seems to have restored the balance between employment and inflation, so if the September 5 NFP report is disappointing, a rate cut will be almost certain.
At this stage, according to the CME FED WATCH TOOL, the implied probability of a rate cut on September 17 is 85%.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Is the FED already too late with its new regime?A Diverging Signal in the Labor Market
A noteworthy divergence is currently unfolding between two key U.S. labor market indicators, potentially signaling underlying shifts that are not immediately obvious from the headline unemployment rate. While the unemployment rate ( UNRATE ) has remained relatively stable, the average duration of unemployment ( UEMPMEAN ) has already begun a noticeable ascent.
The View from Jackson Hole: A Shift in the Fed's Focus
This emerging trend gains new significance following the Federal Reserve's latest guidance from Jackson Hole. The key takeaway was a palpable shift in the Fed's focus, with an acknowledgement that "downside risks to employment are increasing." This nuanced view suggests the Fed is now looking beyond the stable headline number and is paying closer attention to underlying weaknesses—like the increasing time it takes for people to find a job.
A New Dynamic: Leading vs. Lagging Indicators
Historically, a rising UEMPMEAN was a lagging indicator that followed a spike in the UNRATE . The current dynamic, however, shows the duration of unemployment acting as a leading indicator of potential trouble. This aligns with the Fed's more cautious tone and its concern that if employment risks materialize, they could do so "quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment."
Trader's Takeaway
This raises a critical question: Is the market underpricing the risk of a weakening labor market by focusing too heavily on the stable UNRATE ? The Fed's new regime, with its heightened sensitivity to employment risks, suggests that a continued rise in UEMPMEAN could be a powerful catalyst for a more dovish policy stance, even if the headline rate doesn't immediately reflect a downturn. This divergence warrants close monitoring as a potential early warning of economic fragility.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.
Long 
Who will be the next Fed Chairman after Powell?Jerome Powell's term at the head of the Federal Reserve (FFED) ends in May 2026. The question of his succession is already underway, and is being actively pursued by the current Trump administration, which is seeking to change the governance of the Fed in order to secure a resumption of the US federal funds rate cut.
1) The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) sets the FED's monetary policy
The FED is the key monetary policy institution of the world's leading economy. Its chairman is the figurehead (but note that his vote counts for only 1, as it does for the 11 other voting members of the FOMC) of an institution that acts independently as the guarantor of financial stability, the fight against inflation and the steering of economic cycles. Against a backdrop of massive public debt, persistent geopolitical tensions and a trade war, the choice of Powell's successor will be decisive, as he resists “dovish” pressure from President Trump to resume the FED rate cut, which has been on pause since December 2024.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is made up of 12 voting members:
- 7 members of the FED's Board of Governors:
o They are appointed by the President of the United States and confirmed by the Senate.
o Their term of office is long (14 years maximum) to guarantee the central bank's independence.
o Among them, the FED Chairman (currently Jerome Powell) and the Vice-Chairman also automatically participate in the FOMC.
- 5 Regional Federal Reserve Presidents (of the existing 12):
o The New York Fed President has a permanent seat.
o The other 4 seats rotate annually between the other 11 regional banks.
o These Regional Presidents are appointed by the Board of Directors of each Regional Federal Reserve, but their appointment must be approved by the Board of Governors.
A majority of 7 votes out of 12 is required for a decision to resume lowering the federal funds rate. The Chairman of the FED has only one vote, and no veto rights. He does, however, exert a strong influence over the other members of the FOMC, and it is here that his impact is decisive.
By clicking on the image below, you can access our article on the current balance of power between the 12 voting members of the FOMC.
The procedure is therefore clear: the President of the United States nominates the future Chairman of the FED, a choice then subject to Senate confirmation. The term of office lasts four years, renewable, and is often based on institutional continuity rather than rupture. As Powell's term ends in May 2026, the Trump administration has set in motion the process of replacing him, while putting massive pressure on the FED to cut its interest rate several times between now and the end of the year.
2) Christopher Waller is currently the favorite candidate to replace Jerome Powell from spring 2026
The Polymarket website allows us to follow market expectations in real time as to the choice of the future FED Chairman. There is a significant probability that Trump will announce his choice before the end of 2025, a further way of putting pressure on Jerome Powell when he leaves office in May 2026.
It seems that Christopher Waller is currently the favorite candidate to succeed Jerome Powell, as he is currently one of the most dovish members of the FOMC. Of course, these probabilities can change very quickly, and we'll be following them regularly on TradingView, so don't hesitate to follow our account to be alerted to our next analyses.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Education 
Long 
GBGDPQQ -Great Britain GDP (Q2/2025)ECONOMICS:GBGDPQQ
Q2/2025
source: Office for National Statistics
- The British economy grew 0.3% qoq in Q2 2025, slowing from a 0.7% expansion in Q1 but surpassing forecasts of just 0.1%, according to preliminary estimates.
The moderation partly reflects activity being brought forward to February and March ahead of April’s stamp duty changes and the announcement of new US tariffs.
In Q2, growth was fuelled by a 0.4% rise in services, led by computer programming and consultancy (+4.1%).
Construction climbed 1.2%, while production fell 0.3% due to utilities (-6.8%) and mining (-0.3%), partly offset by a 0.3% increase in manufacturing.
On the expenditure side, growth was driven mainly by a 1.2% rise in government consumption, particularly in health (vaccinations) and public administration and defence.
Gross capital formation increased on the back of higher changes in valuables, inventories, and alignment adjustments, but business investment slumped 4%.
Household spending rose a modest 0.1% and exports increased 1.6%, outpacing the 1.4% rise in imports.
