World Economic Outlook and Ideas — TradingView

Economy

SPX & Margin Debit at Broker ,definition of Bubble using "Tech" - RSI = We are far away from a bubble - B% = Mid of Bubble land - MACD = Beginning of Bubble land What Is Margin Debt? Margin debt is debt a brokerage customer takes on by trading on margin. When purchasing securities through a broker, investors have the option of using a cash account and covering the entire cost of the investment themselves, or using a margin account—meaning they borrow part of the initial capital from their broker. The portion the investors borrow is known as ma

Modern Economics Overview This chart tracks 4 things since 1971: how much the government owes (red), how much regular people owe (black), what the economy produces (blue), and what people actually take home after taxes (green). The cartoon says it all — the government borrows from you to bail out the people it just lent money to. And the chart proves it's been happening on repeat. 🔄 Here's what nobody talks about — the government debt was actually the SMALLEST line for most of history. Regular people were the ones carr

$JPINTR -Japan Interest Rates (October/2026)ECONOMICS:JPINTR 1.25% October/2026 source: Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote at its October meeting, in line with market expectations. The decision followed two consecutive 25bp hikes in June and September, leaving borrowing costs at their highest level since April 1995. Policymakers indicated further rate increases, noting that underlying CPI inflation had aligned with the 2% target for the first time since the ta

$EUINTR -E.U Interest Rates (October/2026)ECONOMICS:EUINTR 2.65% October/2026 source: European Central Bank -The European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged at its October 2026 meeting, as expected, keeping the main refinancing rate at 2.65% .

$USGDPQQ - U.S GDP (Q3/2026)ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ 3.4% Q3/2026 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - The United States economy grew 3.4% in Q3, the most in a year, following a 2.2% increase in Q2 and above market expectations of 3.2%. Strong consumer spending and AI-related business investment more than compensated for the impact of rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

$USINTR -U.S Interest Rates (October/2026)ECONOMICS:USINTR 4% October/2026 source: Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve kept keep the federal funds rate unchanged, as expected, following a 25bps hike in September, and despite a rise in inflationary pressures. Two of the 12 FOMC voters, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, dissented in favor of a 25 bps rate hike.

$JPIRYY - Japan Inflation Hits 9-Month High (September/2026)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.1% September/2026 +0.2% source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - Japan’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.1% in September from 1.9% in each of the prior two months, marking its highest level since December 2025. Core inflation also picked up to 2.1% from 1.7% in August, reaching a nine-month peak and moving slightly above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

Fed, a Status Quo Likely on October 28 Despite Inflation The latest US inflation figures released according to the CPI and PPI have been disappointing, showing that oil prices have had an upward impact on headline inflation, while core inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The chart below shows annual US headline inflation according to the CPI. Note that all US economic statistics are available on TradingView. Ultimately, all three measures of US inflation are still at levels that are too high for the Fed to consider cutting the federal fund

$CNGDPYY - China GDP (Q3/2026)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q3/2026 4.5% September/2026 +0.2% source: National Bureau of Statistics of China -China’s economy grew 4.5% yoy in Q3 2026, accelerating from Q2’s three-year low of 4.3% and beating market expectations of 4.4%. Growth was supported by recent policy easing and resilient exports, particularly of AI-related components, high-tech manufactured goods and electric vehicles. September activity also strengthened, with industrial output and retail sales posting their fas

FED Fund Rates & Unemployment Raising rates while unemployment climbs risks making a weakening economy worse. Higher borrowing costs and debt payments squeeze household spending and business investment. With consumption accounting for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP, that pressure can deepen the slowdown. Unemployment has been rising since the summer of 2023. Inflation has not met the Fed's 2% target in over 67 months, with no end in sight. This is going to end up in a financial bloodbath while they are telling you the economy is d

MACROECONOMIC LIQUIDITY GUIDE My apologies, I wanted to publish it both in Hungarian and English, but tradingview only allows English, so here is a rough translation. The top blue line is, in essence, the fuel for the bottom green line. The stock market cannot sustain a rise if the banking system completely runs out of available capital. If the top blue line... Then the bottom green line (S&P 500) typically... Rises sharply The stock market soars. Banks have an abundance of excess capital, which they channel into lo

Housing market activity continues to slow down.🚨 !!! ALERT !!! 🚨 Housing market activity continues to slow down and possibly heads to a GRINDING halt! What do you think will happen to price then ???

If you bought gold on inflation going up, you'll be surprised!If you bought gold on inflation going up, you'll be surprised by what has actually happens. 1) The last two times inflation bottomed, gold peaked. 2) Recently, gold has rallied as inflation broke down. The better time was to buy gold & silver as the inflation rate broke down.

$USIRYY - U.S CPI Accelerates (September/2026)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 3.7% September/2026 +0.3% source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - U.S inflation rose to 3.7% year-on-year in September, its highest level in four months and above forecasts of 3.6%, as energy prices continued to rise. Monthly CPI climbed 0.6%, its biggest gain in five months, while core inflation also exceeded expectations, rising to 2.6% annually and 0.3% monthly.

$CNIRYY - China CPI (September/2026 ECONOMICS:CNIRYY 0.9% September/2026 +0.1 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s annual inflation rate edged up to 0.9% in September 2026 from 0.8% in August, slightly below market expectations of 1%. It marked the highest reading since June, with non-food inflation accelerating (1.5% vs 1.2% in August), driven by a sharper rise in transport costs (4.3% vs 2.5%) amid higher gasoline prices and stronger travel demand ahead of the Golden Week break. Upward price pressure

$CNBOT - China Posts Biggest Trade Surplus (September/2026)ECONOMICS:CNBOT September/2026 source: General Administration of Customs - China’s trade surplus widened to $133.5 billion in September from $88.7 billion a year earlier, beating forecasts of $118.1 billion. It was the largest since January 2025, as exports surged 36.3% yoy to $447.2 billion on strong AI-related demand. Meanwhile, imports climbed 31% to $313.67 billion.

Here are my 4 horsemen of the apocalypse!Here are my 4 horsemen of the apocalypse! 1) Bankruptcies on the move. 2) 10 minus 2 year yields move halting. 3) Unemployment Rate slowing down. 4) Initial jobless claims still have not started to move. Time is ticking for the business cycle to roll over...

Junk bonds on the move I think we're at the beginning of a major market crash, junk bonds measure the risk appetite. Stay safe

Consumer Confidence: A Portfolio Risk Gauge The US Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to 46.3, remaining below the key 50 threshold and reflecting a deeply cautious consumer environment. As a long-term investor, I monitor this indicator to support my portfolio management. Consumer confidence can influence spending, corporate revenues and, ultimately, earnings expectations. I do not use it as a standalone buy or sell signal. Instead, it helps me assess the broader macroeconomic climate and decide whether my portfolio requires: - More

FED NET LIQUIDITY LOOKS BULLISH (09/10/2026)Come on!!1 BREAK OUTTTT BREAK FREEEE descending bullish penant Fb target based on weekly line

by mypostsareNotFinancialAdvice

Bubblicious These are overlaid as % to properly compare. Notice how in the past, junk bonds yielded a higher return than the SPX did. This makes sense if you consider higher risk = higher return. Now... that has flipped. Because, of course it has. Ai, Ai, Ai, Ai. The current gap is massive. The only way stocks don't come down hard, very hard, is assuming that junk bond yields will rise substantially without anything breaking and corporations still being able to pay their bills. I think most investors hav

by MonetaryRebel

Junk Bonds say, "Exit Now"The majority of investors will never look into this. If you do, you'll have an edge. When it goes higher, it means poorer credit quality companies are paying more in interest (junk debt). It is essentially a window into the strain or strength of debt in corporations and businesses. We have never gone up to these levels without being in a recession, either just starting or finishing. The RSI also has never reached these overbought levels without us being in a recession. I know the stock marke

by MonetaryRebel

Is October too soon for another Fed hike? All voting Federal Reserve members backed an increase in US interest rates at the last FOMC meeting. But the next decision may be more contentious. The September minutes showed officials remain concerned that inflation is sticky, and they expect another rate increase before the end of the year. Perhaps the most interesting/ dubious claim from the minutes is that they see no rate hike next year The Fed has two meetings left: October 28 and December 9. Recent inflation data could make an Oc

by BlackBull Markets

Housing Market Warning: New Home Prices May Have Already Topped I’ve been watching the long-term chart of median sales prices for new homes in the United States, and I believe the housing market is beginning to flash a serious warning. The chart is very different from what we saw during most of the last 40 years. New-home prices went almost parabolic after 2020, ultimately reaching a record $496,800 in October 2022. Today, the latest Census data puts the median new-home price at approximately $393,700. That is already a decline of roughly 21% from the peak.

by FreedomBuilder