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$JPIRYY - Japan's CPI (March/2026)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 1.5% March/2026 +0.2% source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - Japan’s annual inflation rose to 1.5% in March 2026 from February’s near four-year low of 1.3%, with transport costs posting the fastest increase in four months (2.1% vs 0.5% in February), amid the effects of the Middle East tensions. Inflation also accelerated for household items (2.7% vs 1.2%), communications (7.0% vs 6.8%), recreation (2.3% vs 2.2%), and miscellaneous goods (0.7% vs 0.6%). Price growth held steady for clothing (at 2.1%) and housing (at 1.0%), but eased for healthcare (0.2% vs 0.4%). Food inflation slowed to a 17-month low (3.6% vs 4.0%), driven by the softest rise in rice prices in two years. Meanwhile, electricity prices (-8.0% vs -8.0) and gas (-5.2% vs -5.1%) fell further, reflecting subsidy effects. Core inflation accelerated to 1.8% from February's 1.6%, but remained below the central bank’s 2% target for the second month. Monthly, the CPI increased 0.4%, reversing a 0.2% decline in January and February and marking the highest reading since January 2025.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
CNGDPYY - China's GDP (Q1/2026)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q1/2026 5% source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s economy expanded 5.0% yoy in Q1 2026, accelerating from 4.5% in Q4 and beating market forecasts of 4.8%. It marked the fastest annual growth in three quarters, as Beijing braces for potential fallout from the Iran war. So far, the economy has managed to absorb the shock with limited disruption, supported by ample oil reserves, a diversified energy mix, and state controls that help contain price volatility. However, the underlying momentum appeared uneven in March, as industrial output rose more than expected, but retail sales growth missed estimates, and the jobless rate hit a 13-month high. On the trade front, exports slowed sharply in the month while imports surged. Meantime, fixed-asset investment in the first three months of the year continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Despite the stronger start, economists expect China’s growth momentum to soften over the rest of the year, weighed down by mounting external headwinds, particularly the prolonged Middle East crisis.
ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY
by Mr_J__fx
UK housing market index looks toppy ! Bearish call on UK property Supports potentially rising bond yields ie higher interest rates too Oil spike usually leads to a recession 6 months later which fits to the 18.6 property cycle too Credit to Fred Harrisons work on the 18.6 yr property cycle which a lot of people pass off as their own but he did the early work on this Hey I just eyeballed the chart did not pick this duration, just what seemed about right I am sure you can tweak it Step 1: Convert days to years 1 year ≈ 365 days 6666 ÷ 365 ≈ 18.27 6666÷365≈18.27 years Step 2: Convert the decimal to months 0.27 × 12 ≈ 3.2 months Step 3: Convert remaining fraction to days 0.2 × ~30 ≈ 6 days ✅ Final Answer: 6666 days ≈ 18 years, 3 months, and about 5–6 days
ECONOMICS:GBHPIShort
by William_Playfair
Consumer Confidence did what?(Not financial advice, but I appreciate any and all comments.) DJI = Green USOIL = Dark Grey Historical low in consumer confidence reported this last Friday. Typically a sustained decrease in consumer confidence coincides with recession due to the U.S. largely consumer based economy. Notice how Oil and Confidence are negatively correlated. Consumer confidence was already near the lows and then we had the war break out and oil spike, which sent confidence plummeting to new all time lows. I don't believe that we've had a soft landing and this can be ignored. This is very substantial, and is a clear sign that the underbelly of the economy is deteriorating. People are spending less on other things due to higher gas prices, and those gas prices will continue to go up higher soon. I think we haven't gone in for a landing yet. But we are about to...
ECONOMICS:USCCIShort
by MonetaryRebel
US CPI MoM new 3.5 year highEnergy Shock Masks a Quiet Core Headline CPI surged 0.9% m/m in March — well above the 0.7% consensus — after a modest 0.3% gain in February. On a yearly basis, total inflation accelerated to 3.3% from 2.4%. Core CPI (ex food & energy) came in softer than expected at +0.2% m/m vs. 0.3% forecast, matching February's pace. Year-over-year core ticked up slightly to 2.6% from 2.5%. ...Of course Energy (Motor Fuel +21.2%) The entire headline overshoot came from energy — the energy index jumped 10.9% in a single month, pushing its annual rate to 12.5%. Meanwhile, food prices were flat m/m (+2.7% y/y), and shelter rose a moderate 0.3% m/m (+3.0% y/y). Used cars continued to deflate (−0.4% m/m, −3.2% y/y), while apparel firmed (+1.0% m/m, +3.4% y/y). Services overall ran at +3.1% y/y. Core inflation looked tame on the surface, but that calm may be temporary. The energy price shock hasn't fully filtered through yet. The risk is that pass-through effects push core readings higher in April — making this report less reassuring than the core number alone suggests.
ECONOMICS:USIRMM
by MarketNeutral
$CNIRYY - China CPI (March/2026)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY March/2026 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s annual inflation eased to 1.0% in March 2026 from February’s over three-year high of 1.3%, falling short of market expectations of 1.2%. Food prices rose at a much softer pace (0.3% vs 1.7% in February), amid a sharp slowdown in fresh vegetables and fruit, alongside a steeper fall in pork prices. Meanwhile, non-food inflation was little changed (1.2% vs 1.3%), with prices continuing to rise for clothing (1.6% vs 1.9%), healthcare (1.9% vs 1.9%), and education (1.1% vs 2.0%). Transport costs rebounded (0.9% vs -0.7%), while a decline in housing costs persisted (-0.2% vs -0.2%). Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 1.1% yoy, after a 1.8% gain in February, which had pointed to the strongest gain since March 2019. China recently imposed controls on domestic fuel prices to cushion households and businesses against higher oil costs. Monthly, the CPI fell 0.7%, after a 1.0% gain in February, marking the first drop since November and undershooting forecasts of a 0.2% drop.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$USUR -U.S Unemployment Rate (February/2026)ECONOMICS:USUR February/2026 source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The U.S unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in March 2026 from 4.4% in February, below market expectations of 4.4%. The number of unemployed decreased by 332,000 to 7.239 million, while total employment fell by 64,000 to 162.85 million. The labor force declined by 396,000 to 170.09 million, pushing the participation rate down 0.1 percentage point to 61.9%. Meanwhile, the broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, rose to 8% from 7.9%.
ECONOMICS:USUR
by Mr_J__fx
Economics & Multiple ExpansionWhy does this chart matter to investors? Imagine a town that produces 100 pizzas a year. Each pizza costs $10. The town's "GDP" is $1,000. Next year, the town will still produce 100 pizzas. But now each pizza costs $15. The town's GDP is now $1,500. Did the town get richer? No. It made the exact same number of pizzas. It just used more dollars to count them. That's asset price inflation. And that's what the gap in this chart represents. While did experience economic inflation in the past the GAP did not form. Why? Bc the earnings yield, Bond yields, and inflation were more in line with each other. That kept the real and nominal economy in balance. Not this time. Multiple expansions end badly! Because they don't buy more earnings growth in the future. What they actually do is pull future earnings FROM THE future into today. That means markets will ultimately have to pay the piper. What is trading for 40 PE today in the future will pay 20! Do not make the mistake of believing this is only a 50% decline in markets bc 20 is half of 40. That assumes earnings can maintain the current levels of profits. I assure you in a recession that will NOT be the case. Which is exactly where we are now. The 2020-2021 expansion pulled an enormous amount of future returns into the present. The question isn't whether multiples contract — it's when and how fast. That is private information. Sorry! (( If you enjoy the work: 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 7,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
FRED:GDP
by RealMacro
1
Energy pain hits households before recessions hit headlines.There’s a simple way to see it: Wages vs Oil. This chart tracks how many hours the average worker must work to buy energy. When oil prices rise faster than wages, households lose purchasing power quickly. Transportation, food, heating, and production costs all rise at the same time. Every major oil shock pushed this ratio into the public pain zone. It happened in: • 1980 – Oil shock → inflation surge and recession • 1990 – Gulf War → sharp energy spike and slowdown • 2008 – Peak oil spike → consumer squeeze before the financial crash • 2022 – Russia invasion → global energy shock and inflation wave The pattern is consistent: energy stress hits consumers first, and the economy feels it soon after. Right now, the wage-to-oil ratio is drifting back toward the same danger zone where households historically start to feel serious pressure. We’re not there yet — but we’re moving closer. So the real question isn’t just where oil is today. The real question is whether the next energy-driven squeeze is already forming beneath the surface and how you should position your portfolio and finances. More good info here If you enjoy the work: 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 7,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype. Please Share. ;)
ECONOMICS:USWAGShort
by RealMacro
$GBIRYY - U.K Inflation (February/2026)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 3% February/2026 source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK steadied at 3% in February 2026, the same as in January and in line with expectations. Clothing made the largest upward contribution, with prices rising 0.9%, the first increase in four months. Prices normally rise in February as the spring product ranges start to enter the shops. Prices also rose at a faster pace for housing and utilities (4.6% vs 4.5%). On the other hand, inflation slowed for transport (2.4% vs 2.7%), with the average price of petrol falling by 1.6 pence per litre between January and February 2026, compared with a rise of 2.0 pence per litre last year. A slowdown was also seen for food (3.3% vs 3.6%), recreation and culture (2.5% vs 2.6%), and restaurants and hotels (4% vs 4.1%). Services inflation also edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.4%, recovering from a 0.5% fall in January and matching forecasts. Annual core inflation unexpectedly edged up to 3.2% from 3.1%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
100 years of Purchasing Power: The chart you need to understandGood morning Vietnam, Do you remember motivational poster produced by the Government of the United Kingdom in 1939 in preparation for World War: KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON ? So, this is the only chart you need to understand despite recent events. In 100 years, despite 2 World Wars, the only guaranteed trend is a massive decreasing purchasing power. What does it mean ? In plain english you need to keep investments in assets if you don´t want to end with nothing. Don´t fall in the trap of being a consumer with pay as you go services, own nothing and you´ll be happy. 6 trading rules Philosophy that produced consistent returns as you can check in our investable track record available at our signature: 1. Never Add to a Losing Position Do not "average down" or increase exposure to a trade that is already moving against you. 2. Do Not Be the First to Buy Low or Last to Exit : Avoid attempting to catch the exact top or bottom of a market move. Aim for the meat of the trend rather than the extremes. 3. Think Fundamental, Trade Technical : Understand the fundamental market context, but rely solely on technical analysis for precise execution. 4. Start Small and Scale In : Initiate positions with smaller volume, and increase exposure only after the market trend confirms your initial analysis. 5. Hard Trades are Usually Right : The trade that feels uncomfortable, goes against your immediate impulse, or requires patience is often the correct one. 6. Simplicity in Analysis : Avoid overcomplicating chart analysis with too many indicators. Rely on clear price action and simple setups.
FRED:CUUR0000SA0RShort
by Realisto_FX
Fed: no rate cuts before 2027?!Military operations in the Middle East since Saturday, February 28 have disrupted monetary policy expectations, and the longer they last, the stronger their impact will be on forward-looking monetary policy. Yet at the end of February, the outlook was rather positive. US inflation had just fallen to 2.4% (based on CPI), real-time inflation was low, and the market was expecting a cut in the US federal funds rate at the June monetary policy meeting, with Kevin Warsh taking the lead at the Federal Reserve. He was expected to benefit from a favorable price environment, but everything has been called into question by the conflict in the Middle East. The upward impact on oil and natural gas prices has been significant due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and military strikes targeting oil and gas facilities around the Persian Gulf. It is clear that rising energy prices will push nominal inflation higher, at least in the short term. There is, however, a key uncertainty: time. After about one month with oil above $90 (US crude oil used here as a benchmark), the impact becomes visible in short-term inflation. If high energy prices persist for more than three months, the impact becomes more structural, spreading to the prices of many goods and services. That said, nothing is certain: if geopolitical tensions significantly slow global growth, downward pressure on prices could also emerge. For now, however, the focus remains on rising energy prices driven by geopolitics. Is it still credible that the Fed will cut rates this summer under Kevin Warsh’s leadership? Yes, but only if the geopolitical and energy situation around the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz normalizes before the end of April. Several indicators suggest that, at this stage, the market does not expect any Fed rate cuts before 2027. Of course, this situation may evolve rapidly: • The trend of the US 2-year Treasury yield, which is considered the best indicator of expected Fed policy. The “US 2-year” has just risen above the current Fed rate, which almost signals that the market is not expecting rate cuts but possibly even rate hikes to counter a rebound in inflation • The CME FedWatch Tool, based on futures contracts traded in Chicago on the US federal funds rate, shows that institutional investors do not expect any rate cuts before mid-2027 The table below shows the CME FedWatch Tool, with a market not expecting any rate cuts before the end of 2027: The chart below shows the daily Japanese candlesticks of the US 2-year Treasury yield: DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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FRED:FEDFUNDS
by Swissquote
$JPINTR - Japan Interest Rates (March/2026)ECONOMICS:JPINTR March/2026 source: Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan left its key short-term rate unchanged at 0.75% at its March 2026 meeting, keeping borrowing costs at their highest since September 1995. The move, announced hours after the U.S. Fed maintained rates steady, reinforced a cautious global stance. Thursday's decision was widely expected and passed by an 8–1 vote, with Hajime Takata dissenting in favor of a hike to 1%. Policymakers held views that Japan’s economy is recovering moderately but warned that escalating Middle East tensions cloud the outlook. The board signaled it will continue raising rates and adjusting monetary support if growth and inflation unfold as projected, noting real rates remain significantly low. Meanwhile, CPI inflation is expected to dip below 2% temporarily before facing renewed upward pressure from rising crude oil prices. Officials stressed the need to closely monitor geopolitical risks, energy markets, and global economic trends given their impact on Japan’s recovery and inflation path.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx