Sedco Capital Reit Fund : From Deep Discount to Potential 14–16TADAWUL:4344
📈 From Deep Discount to Potential 14–16 Target? The Weekly Chart Tells an Interesting Story 🔥
The weekly chart suggests that price may have completed a major accumulation and recovery phase after rebounding from a deep discounted Fibonacci retracement zone of the previous bullish swing from 4.14 to 11.00.
🔍 The Price Structure
After the initial bullish move, price retraced within a descending parallel channel, eventually forming a significant swing low near 5.91 in November 2025.
Since that low, price has demonstrated strong weekly bullish momentum and steadily recovered, despite the severe geopolitical conflict affecting the region during the first half of 2026.
This resilience is an important technical observation.
⚠️ Key Resistance: 8.10–8.25
Price is now approaching a significant resistance zone around 8.10–8.25, which aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.
At this stage, the market may need to cool off before continuing higher.
This could happen through:
🔹 Sideways consolidation
🔹 A controlled technical correction
🔹 A retest of previous breakout levels
🎯 Two Critical Correction Zones
If price experiences a pullback, two areas stand out:
📍 7.13 — Parallel Channel Breakout Retest
A retest of the previous descending channel breakout could provide an important support test.
📍 6.80 — 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement Zone
This area represents the deeper Fibonacci retracement level of the latest bullish swing and could act as a potential demand zone.
🚀 Breakout Strategy
For new positions, chasing price at the current market price may carry a relatively higher risk due to the nearby resistance zone.
A confirmed breakout above 8.25, preferably followed by a successful retest and support confirmation, could provide a more favorable risk-reward entry for momentum traders.
📊 Potential Upside Targets
If the bullish structure remains intact:
🎯 Initial upside target: Around 12.00
This is where the projected AB=CD harmonic pattern could reach completion.
🔭 Extended target zone: 14.00–16.00
A Reverse Fibonacci Extension projection suggests the possibility of a larger measured move toward this region.
🧠 My View
The broader weekly market structure remains bullish, but price is now entering a major technical decision zone.
The key question is:
Will price break above 8.25 and accelerate higher, or will the market first consolidate and retest lower support levels before the next major move?
For me, 8.25 remains the key trigger level, while 7.13 and 6.80 are the important correction and accumulation zones to monitor.
Do you think this is a breakout setup—or does price need one more correction before the next leg higher? 👀
Share your view below. ⬇️
🔖 Hashtags
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Al Rajhi Bank: Facing Liquidity and Regional HeadwindsDespite reporting solid Q1 2026 results, with a 14% growth in net profit, several systemic and macroeconomic risk factors could exert pressure on the stock in the medium term. Prolonged instability linked to the Iranian conflict represents a material risk for the entire Saudi banking sector. If the conflict were to escalate, Fitch warns that asset quality, profitability, and bank liquidity could contract, forcing an increase in provisions for credit losses (impairment charges). The sector is facing a contraction in liquidity conditions, with loan-to-deposit ratios hitting record levels across the board. In a stress scenario, Al Rajhi Bank's liquidity position could be tested: estimates indicate that the liquidity coverage on deposits for Al Rajhi, Riyad Bank, and Bank Albilad could fall to critical levels (10% or less) in the event of significant outflows. Growing competition for deposit gathering is driving up the cost of funding. If interest rates remain "higher for longer," banks with a high reliance on certificates of deposit or subject to greater domestic competition would see their net interest margins (NIM) compressed. The massive adoption of fintech, instant payments, and digital banking in Saudi Arabia is "compressing" risk timelines. The need to constantly update Anti-Money Laundering (AML) frameworks and cybersecurity in a rapidly evolving environment entails increasing operational investments which, over time, could weigh on the cost-to-income ratio. Despite the positive Q1 2026 results, shares have shown immediate signs of weakness on the stock exchange, reflecting growing "market caution" rather than simple fundamental weakness. When a stock reacts negatively to positive news, it often signals that the market has already priced in optimistic growth scenarios, making the asset vulnerable to potential corrections should future expectations not be met. 
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Bahri (4030): Strong FundamentalsAfter reviewing Bahri’s FY2025 results and Q1 2026 performance, I believe the company remains fundamentally strong despite the market’s cautious pricing.
Key Highlights
* Revenue continues to benefit from a resilient tanker market.
* EBITDA remains at healthy levels, reflecting strong operating performance.
* Net debt is manageable relative to cash generation.
* Free cash flow has improved significantly following the major fleet investment cycle.
* The balance sheet remains solid, giving the company flexibility for future growth and shareholder returns.
Valuation
At the current market price of SAR 32, Bahri appears to be trading below my estimated intrinsic value.
Estimated Fair Value (Base Case): SAR 40
* Bear Case: SAR 34
* Base Case: SAR 40
* Bull Case: SAR 47
This implies approximately 25% upside to my base-case valuation.
Accumulation Strategy
Rather than buying all at once, I prefer building a position gradually.
* Strong Buy Zone: SAR 28.6–30.0
* Accumulation Zone: SAR 30.0–32.0
* Hold Zone: SAR 32.0–35.0
If fundamentals continue to improve, I would reassess the valuation accordingly.
Investment Thesis
Bahri is a cyclical shipping company, so future performance will largely depend on freight rates and global oil transportation demand. However, with a diversified fleet, improving cash generation, and a stronger financial position, the company appears well positioned to benefit if market conditions remain supportive. 
Long
Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (2081) – Strong FundamentaAlkhorayef Water continues to deliver strong operational performance despite recent market weakness.
Fundamental Highlights
• Q1 2026 net profit increased 10.9% YoY, while EPS improved to SAR 1.84 versus SAR 1.66 in Q1 2025.
• FY2025 was another record year, with revenue reaching SAR 2.47B and net profit increasing to SAR 255.7M, reflecting consistent execution and long-term growth.
• During 2026, the company secured over SAR 1 billion in new operation & maintenance and infrastructure contracts. Most of these contracts span 30–60 months, providing strong earnings visibility and recurring cash flows.
• The company also continues to grow its Book Value Per Share, which increased from SAR 23.27 (Q1 2025) to SAR 28.04 (Q1 2026), while maintaining healthy profitability.
Technical View
The stock is approaching a major demand zone around SAR 100–105, where previous buying interest emerged.
Price action suggests the market is testing an important support area. A successful hold above this zone could trigger a recovery toward the SAR 130 resistance level.
Long-Term Outlook
If Alkhorayef continues executing projects efficiently, maintains its current profitability, and converts its growing contract pipeline into earnings, I believe the market could gradually re-rate the stock.
Potential price roadmap:
* Short-term target: SAR 130
* Medium-term target: SAR 150–175
* Long-term fair value: around SAR 220
* Bullish scenario (continued earnings growth and successful execution): SAR 240–260
These targets are based on continued earnings growth, strong ROE, expanding book value, recurring long-term contracts, and disciplined execution. 
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Rasan (8313): Watching a Confluence Support Zone Around 135Rasan is still trading inside an ascending channel even after the recent sharp drop.
Price is getting close to an interesting confluence zone around 135, where the lower boundary of the ascending channel, a previous support area, the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. Increased chances of a positive reaction. I'm not in a hurry to enter, and would rather wait for a bullish candle. If the stock bounces from this zone, the next resistance level is 150 (Mid of the channel) and 160 as the top of the channel. A close below 124 would invalidate this setup.
Disclaimer:
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading and investing in stocks involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Any decisions to buy, sell, or hold securities are the sole responsibility of the reader. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and, if necessary, consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 
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2120 Saudi Advanced Industries July 05, 2026Saudi Advanced Industries Co. — Daily Bullish Dealing Range Idea | July 05, 2026
Symbol: Saudi Advanced Industries Co. — Tadawul
Timeframe: Daily
Chart Date: July 05, 2026
Saudi Advanced Industries Co. has swept the 2025 low and then reacted back above that level. This is an important sign because price first collected sell-side liquidity, then started showing bullish strength again.
Now the daily timeframe has formed a bullish dealing range. Price is holding above the recent reaction area, and the structure is starting to look cleaner for a possible upside continuation. The yearly Type 4 FVG is also sitting below as a higher-timeframe imbalance, which adds more importance to this whole area.
My main idea is simple:
after the 2025 low sweep, if the daily dealing range stays valid and price continues to hold above it, the next draw on liquidity can be the upper imbalance / value area shown on the chart.
I am not interested in chasing the candle emotionally. I would prefer to see price respect the daily dealing range, maybe give a small pullback, and then continue with bullish displacement.
For confirmation, I want to see:
Daily dealing range holds
Price stays above the swept low
No strong bearish breakdown back into the lower range
Bullish candles continue from the reaction area
Upside movement toward the marked value / liquidity zone
This setup is interesting because the market has already taken downside liquidity and is now showing early signs of bullish delivery. If buyers continue to defend this dealing range, price can move higher toward the marked target zone.
Patience pays. Wait for confirmation, not emotions. 
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Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Daily Bullish Continuation Idea July
Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Co. — Daily Bullish Continuation Idea | July 05, 2026
Symbol: Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Co. — Tadawul
Timeframe: Daily
Chart Date: July 05, 2026
Dar Al Arkan is showing a clean bullish idea on the daily timeframe. Price has already reacted from the monthly FVG area and is now holding above that zone, which shows buyers are still defending the higher-timeframe imbalance.
The market spent time consolidating after the first bullish move, and now price is trying to push higher again. This type of structure can become interesting if the daily candles continue to hold above the monthly FVG and start showing stronger bullish displacement.
My main idea is simple:
as long as price respects the monthly FVG and does not break back aggressively below the recent support area, the next draw on liquidity can be the marked upside target zone.
I am not interested in entering blindly. I would prefer to see price hold this area, create a clean bullish reaction, and then continue toward the higher targets.
For confirmation, I want to see:
Price holds above the monthly FVG
Daily structure remains bullish
No strong breakdown below the recent support
Bullish displacement from the current range
Continuation toward the marked upside target
This is a patience-based setup. The monthly FVG has already acted as an important area, and now the main question is whether buyers can continue defending it.
Patience pays. Wait for confirmation, not emotions. 
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