TESLA, pay attention to these numbers!!Despite the electric vehicle sector experiencing strong demand growth, with EV sales up 33.6% in July across the European market (source: Investing.com), Tesla appears to be struggling to keep up with the trend, posting a 40% drop in sales. In contrast, BYD continues to gain market share steadily.
Yet, Tesla is currently trading at a price that reflects an EPS multiple of 203.83x (with revenue growth expected to be -5.4% in 2025 and EPS falling by 12.1%) , an aggressive valuation that is difficult to justify given the company’s revenue has seen only modest growth over the past two years. This stagnation is largely due to weakening gross profit margins and broader macroeconomic headwinds that are weighing on performance. The current stock price still seems inflated by the momentum and hype generated by Tesla's strong performance up to 2022.
It is also worth noting that Elon Musk, during a key period, appeared to shift focus away from Tesla, impacting investor confidence and leadership credibility.
From a technical and statistical perspective, Tesla appears significantly overbought, with an estimated fair value that is 27.04% lower than the current price. On the chart, there’s a clear resistance zone between $346.04 and $351.22, and a support zone between $366.53 and $368.80.
(DISCLAIMER: The following is a personal opinion, not financial advice!!)
A potential short position in the coming days cannot be ruled out, with market reaction likely hinging on the earnings report due October 21. A stop-loss could be set around $368.80 (if the upward trend fails to confirm), with a take-profit range between $329.70 (200-day MA) and $302.00. An initial take-profit could be considered around $322.97, aligned with the 50-day moving average (MA50).
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Renewables: The U.S. Opens the Door and Europe CelebratesBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The energy transition has received an unexpected boost from the United States. Against restrictive forecasts, the Trump administration finally published the rules that define access for clean energy projects to tax credits. The outcome was surprising: far more lenient regulation than anticipated. What many expected to be a regulatory maze turned out to look more like a beginner’s sudoku.
The impact was quickly felt in Europe. Vestas Wind Systems A/S (CPH:VWS), a leader in wind turbines, experienced its best trading day since July 2022, soaring 18%. Optimism spread to other sector giants such as Siemens Energy AG (ETR:ENR) and GE Vernova, the renewables division of General Electric (NYSE:GE), which now see a clearer path ahead for rising orders.
U.S. Flexes, Europe Accelerates
In Europe, the development of clean energy has been driven by ambitious climate targets and a favorable regulatory environment, albeit with bureaucratic hurdles in permitting and grid connections. The U.S. decision—ironically under a government traditionally skeptical of green policies—puts the country in a competitive position: attractive tax credits, greater legal certainty for investors, and a framework that could draw European capital stateside.
Europe, however, still holds the advantage in industrial expertise and value chains. Manufacturers such as Vestas and Siemens Gamesa have spent years consolidating their global leadership. The new U.S. framework does not erase that advantage but does level the playing field, with transatlantic companies set to be the main beneficiaries.
Market Outlook
From a technical standpoint, Vestas is in a buying frenzy after breaking key resistance at 170 Danish crowns, with short-term potential to test 185. Siemens Energy, still grappling with financial issues, could use the momentum to stabilize above €20, while GE Vernova gains visibility within General Electric, whose immediate support stands at $147.
Siemens Energy Analysis
Advantage Regained with U.S. Support
Siemens Energy reported record orders of €16.6 billion in the second quarter alone, with a backlog reaching €136 billion, driven by strong U.S. demand, especially for data center power plants. Revenue rose 13.5% to €9.7 billion, while net profit hit €697 million, compared to a loss the year prior. Despite a €100 million tariff headwind, the company expects to reach the upper range of its guidance (13–15% sales growth, margin before special items at 4–6%), showcasing solid recovery and increasing investor confidence.
Medium-Term Bullish Trend
From a technical perspective, the trend since April has been bullish, supported by a golden cross that pushed prices to late-July highs, retested in early August. The price currently sits on the 100-day moving average, having lost the 50-day support. RSI is at 47.05%, and MACD shows a corrective move with the histogram trending downward into negative territory. Average volume holds at 1.95M. The strongest bearish pressure aligns with the Point of Control (POC) at €50.50, while bullish pressure zones coincide with the consolidation range between €104.85 and €82.34. The key level to watch is above €100: a breakout would confirm stronger upside momentum. Failure to hold current levels could see supports tested at €76.54 and €62.96.
Tailwind Effect
The renewed tailwind from the U.S. marks a significant shift: the energy transition is no longer a solely European effort but a global race where regulatory flexibility can accelerate investment. If Europe sustains its technological leadership while the U.S. offers a more attractive fiscal framework, the renewable sector may enter a new phase of synchronized growth on both sides of the Atlantic.
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La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial.
Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información.
Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada y las estimaciones no sinónimo ni un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo. Los tipos de interés pueden cambiar. El riesgo político es impredecible. Las acciones de los bancos centrales pueden variar. Las herramientas de las plataformas no garantizan el éxito.
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