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PUMA: Multi-Year Downtrend Broken — WCL Retest Before €35–€38?XETR:PUM is sitting at a very interesting technical location.
For years, price was controlled by a major descending trendline. Every recovery attempt was capped by that structure, keeping the bigger picture bearish. But now that trendline has finally been broken to the upside, and that changes the whole conversation.
This is no longer just a stock stuck under a downtrend line. Now the question becomes: was the breakout real, or was it just a liquidity trap?
From my view, the bullish structure is still active.
The chart has a valid bullish ABC sequence, and as long as the B level remains intact, the C target remains a valid draw. That target sits around the €35–€38 zone , which makes it the main upside magnet if buyers continue defending the structure.
What makes this chart even more interesting is the current location. Price is pulling back into the WCL zone , which I view as the buyer defense area. This is where buyers either reload and protect the sequence, or the structure starts losing strength.
BC1 already did its job earlier. It gave the first reload before price expanded higher and broke through the long-term descending trendline. Now WCL becomes the next important test.
If WCL holds, the bullish case stays strong: price defended structure, retested the breakout area, and still has an active C target above.
If WCL fails, then I would watch BC2 as the deeper reload zone. That does not instantly kill the bullish idea, but it would mean buyers need to defend from lower prices before attempting the next leg.
The invalidation remains simple: if B breaks, the bullish ABC sequence is no longer valid.
So for me, the chart is not about blindly buying PUMA. It is about watching whether buyers can defend the WCL after a multi-year trendline breakout.
If they can, the €35–€38 ABC target becomes very realistic.
Not financial advice. 
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Artificial SAP-iencePreliminary Info
SAP sells enterprise resource planning software, known as ERPs, which serve as the actual central nervous system to coordinate accounting, human resources, logistics, and sales for any large organization within a single digital environment.
In recent years, the company has transformed its business model, shifting from selling single licenses to Cloud subscription contracts. It is precisely this transition that guarantees solid and predictable revenue growth for the coming years.
Indeed, the mass migration of its massive legacy customer base to Cloud services generates recurring and stable cash flows that are recording consistent double-digit increases. This is supported by a backlog of future contracts already signed exceeding €21 billion, which secures long-term revenues.
Added to this dynamic is the integration of "Business AI" into its operational software. This allows SAP to increase the average contract value through the upselling of advanced artificial intelligence features, thereby enabling global revenue to expand rapidly thanks to a unique combination of guaranteed renewals and new high-margin revenue streams.
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Analysis
The price dropped by 50%, hitting the €140 support level following the wild sell-off that hit the entire software sector due to fears surrounding the impact of AI.
In addition to the support level, the price also reached the Monthly SMA100 (green line), where it has been hovering for a couple of months.
At the moment, a reversal pattern has not yet formed, but I believe a recovery is imminent.
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My Personal Take
In my opinion, this hoax about AI causing software companies to go bankrupt is just manipulated news designed to push the sector's leading giants down to their lows.
These companies hold hundreds of patents and confidential databases stored in proprietary formats… it is far more likely that these very companies will reap the greatest benefits from using AI in the coming years.
This is the best time to take a position before takeoff.
Updates to follow.
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Bayer AG — Harmonic Pattern with VWAP / Gartley ConfluenceBayer has developed a harmonic pattern structure, and the current price action suggests that the next relevant technical area is located below the current market price.
The preferred scenario is that price continues to move toward the projected VWAP area. This zone is especially important because the rising VWAP aligns closely with the projected Gartley completion around 30.89 EUR. This creates a relevant confluence between dynamic support and harmonic pattern completion.
Main scenario: Move into VWAP / Gartley confluence
The key technical area is located around 30.89 EUR.
This level combines two important elements:
VWAP as projected dynamic support
Gartley pattern completion zone
If price reaches this confluence area, a technical pullback becomes likely. In that case, the marked Fibonacci retracement levels above would become relevant as potential upside targets.
The first reaction target would be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 33.69 EUR. If the pullback gains more strength, the next relevant levels are the 78.6% retracement around 37.23 EUR and the 100% retracement around 41.74 EUR.
Worst-case scenario: Deeper harmonic projections
It is important to note that the Gartley / VWAP confluence is the first major support zone, but not the only possible harmonic completion area.
If price does not react strongly from the VWAP / Gartley zone, or if this area breaks decisively, the two lower projections become relevant:
Bat projection around 25.22 EUR
Crab projection around 20.68 EUR
These levels represent deeper harmonic completion zones below the VWAP. In that case, the correction would extend further before a stronger pullback attempt becomes more likely.
Expected path
The expected technical path is first a continuation lower toward the projected VWAP. Around the VWAP / Gartley confluence near 30.89 EUR, price may attempt a bullish pullback.
Only after the harmonic completion zone is reached do the marked Fibonacci retracements above become relevant as pullback targets.
If the first confluence zone fails, the market may extend into the lower Bat or Crab projections before the Fibonacci pullback scenario becomes active.
Conclusion
Bayer is currently forming a harmonic correction setup. The preferred target is the VWAP / Gartley confluence around 30.89 EUR. A reaction from this area could trigger a pullback toward the Fibonacci retracement levels above.
However, if this first support zone does not hold, the lower harmonic projections at 25.22 EUR and 20.68 EUR remain valid worst-case targets before a larger technical recovery becomes more likely.
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SAP has exited an uptrend and is now forming two peaksSAP has exited an uptrend and is now forming two peaks. I would not call this a double-top formation since there is no supporting evidence in the volume. However, one should be aware that the price has support around 213 (see also the 3-year volume profile). If the support holds, this is positive for the price. But if there is a breakdown with increased volume, it would be a sell signal in the medium term (1–6 months) for investors with that time horizon.
The price currently has negative momentum as it is trading below all moving averages (50, 100, 200), the Ichimoku cloud, and the RSI 21 is trending downward.
Fundamental analysts remain broadly positive on the stock. My assessment is that the valuation has been too high for some investors, prompting profit-taking. Whether the valuation — with a P/E of around 40–50 — is still considered too high remains to be seen. It should also be noted that while annual results are positive, they fluctuate significantly.
Disclaimer: I hold a position in SAP. I do not use a stop loss regarding a potential breakdown below 213, but I have set an alert. I will only consider selling if there is a breakdown with strong volume, and in that case I would look to buy back at a lower level. My overall position is long on SAP.
Commerzbank hardens its defense against UniCredit’s takeover bidBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Commerzbank has intensified its defensive offensive against the public takeover bid launched by UniCredit, in a corporate battle that has become one of the main focal points of the European financial sector. The German entity has formally asked its shareholders to reject the proposal from the Italian bank, arguing that the operation significantly undervalues Commerzbank and presents high strategic and operational risks. UniCredit officially launched its offer in May with a valuation close to €35-39 billion, depending on the evolution of its share price. The proposal consists of an exchange of 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share. Taking UniCredit’s closing price prior to the formal launch of the offer as a reference, the proposal implied an approximate valuation of between €30.8 and €31.1 per Commerzbank share. However, shares of the German bank have traded above €34-35, even positioning themselves above the implied price of the Italian offer. This market behavior reflects that part of the market expects an improvement in the terms of the operation or considers it likely that UniCredit will end up increasing its stake through additional market purchases.
Currently, UniCredit controls close to 30% of Commerzbank’s capital between direct participation and financial derivatives, while voting rights linked to additional positions raise its potential influence to approximately 38.9%. The German government continues to be one of the main obstacles to the operation. Berlin maintains around a 12% stake in Commerzbank since the 2008 financial rescue and has repeatedly shown its rejection of a hostile absorption by the Italian group. Commerzbank’s management maintains that the entity can generate more value independently and recently presented new strategic objectives through 2030 to reinforce that narrative among shareholders. The bank also announced internal adjustments and cost reductions to improve profitability and strengthen its stock market position.
CBK Technical Analysis
Shares of XETRA started the session with a strong bullish bias following the market’s positive reaction to the defensive measures adopted by the entity against UniCredit’s offensive. During the first trading hour, the stock moved around €36.85-36.87, remaining close to recent highs and consolidating the buying pressure seen over recent weeks. From a technical point of view, the price has managed to break above the key resistance located at €36.43, corresponding to the highs recorded on May 7. This breakout leaves the stock with room to attack the April 22 highs area, whose breakout would confirm the continuation of the dominant bullish structure.
If a solid breakout above those levels is consolidated during the coming sessions, the market could begin pricing in an extension scenario toward the psychological €39 area, potentially entering free upward movement. This move would also reinforce Commerzbank’s market capitalization in the middle of its defensive process against the takeover bid, increasing its financial and negotiating capacity against UniCredit.
The technical structure continues to be supported by moving averages clearly oriented upward since mid-April, reflecting a positive underlying trend. The RSI remains in overbought territory, although it still maintains an upward slope, indicating that buying momentum remains active despite the high accumulated acceleration.
However, the MACD is beginning to show certain signs of deceleration in momentum. Although the indicator remains in positive territory and its main line continues above the signal line, the histogram is beginning to lose intensity, suggesting a possible partial exhaustion of short-term momentum.
Below the current price, the market maintains a relevant technical support zone between €33.45 and €29.32, where the point of control (POC) is also located around €31.24, a level that concentrates high trading volume over recent months. If the stock loses strength after the latest gains, a corrective movement toward the €33.45 area before attempting a new bullish extension cannot be ruled out.
The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse risk indicator points to an extreme Risk-on environment for the third consecutive session, signaling a high overbought tendency in the European market.
From the market’s point of view, the operation is interpreted as a decisive test for European banking consolidation. Brussels has spent years defending the creation of large pan-European financial groups capable of competing with U.S. banks, but national political resistance continues to be one of the main limits for cross-border mergers. In the stock market, XETRA maintains a bullish evolution driven by corporate speculation and expectations of new negotiations. Meanwhile, BIT continues to be supported by solid financial results, although investors remain attentive to the impact that a large acquisition could have on its capital position and regulatory exposure.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
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Volkswagen:While union tightens its stance,BYD arrives Dresden**Volkswagen (VOW3): While the union tightens its stance, BYD arrives in Dresden**
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Volkswagen (VOW3) is once again at the center of the European market focus following recent reports on a potential industrial collaboration with BYD in Germany and growing tension between the group’s management and German trade unions.
The German manufacturer is going through one of its most challenging periods in recent years. The slowdown in demand in Europe, strong Chinese competition in electric vehicles, and the threat of new US tariffs are forcing the company to rethink its industrial structure.
## The union maintains its “red line”
According to Reuters, Volkswagen’s union representatives have reiterated their absolute rejection of plant closures in Germany, maintaining a firm stance against the restructuring plans pushed by group management.
The company is seeking to reduce production capacity to improve efficiency and protect margins, particularly in a context where the European industry is facing overcapacity against weaker demand.
However, IG Metall and the works council consider that any factory closures would represent a direct threat to German industrial employment, increasing political and social pressure on the manufacturer.
## BYD and the Dresden plant
At the same time, the market remains highly attentive to reports regarding BYD’s interest in partially using the historic Dresden plant, known as the *Gläserne Manufaktur*.
The factory stopped producing the ID.3 and currently some of its facilities have limited activity, which has fueled speculation about possible industrial agreements between Volkswagen and Chinese manufacturers.
Although Volkswagen has officially denied the existence of a definitive agreement, the possibility reflects the profound structural shift taking place in the European automotive sector. A few years ago, it would have been unthinkable for Chinese manufacturers to operate within historic German group facilities.
BYD’s potential entry also highlights the growing competitive pressure from China on European automakers, particularly in the EV segment, where Asian groups maintain significant advantages in production costs and battery development.
## The threat of US tariffs
This situation is further complicated by the commercial risk coming from the United States. The threat of imposing 25% tariffs on European automobiles could seriously affect German manufacturers such as Volkswagen, especially at a time when the sector is already facing margin deterioration and slower global growth.
The market fears that these trade tensions could force European companies to further accelerate industrial restructuring and cost-cutting processes.
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## Technical analysis of VOW3
From a technical perspective, VOW3 continues to show a medium-term sideways structure after finding a double technical support in the impulsive zone formed in December 2024. The stock is currently trading within a wide consolidation range between €82.66 as key support and €98.76 as major resistance, while the most recent high remains at €109.15 recorded in December 2025. The uncertainty around the electric transition, combined with margin pressure and industrial costs, continues to limit the stock’s ability to develop a sustained bullish trend.
On the daily chart, a point of control zone stands near €91, where price action appears to have stabilised after recent volatility phases. The bearish moving average crossover remains in place, although the price has managed to trade sideways around the 50-day moving average, showing some short-term stabilisation.
In terms of indicators, RSI remains in neutral territory after recovering from oversold levels, while MACD is still below the zero line, although with a positive histogram, suggesting fading selling pressure without a clear return of bullish momentum.
Key resistance levels remain concentrated around the psychological €100 area, where institutional selling and profit-taking have previously emerged. On the downside, the €82–83 support zone remains the critical level to preserve the current medium-term sideways structure.
On the other hand, the ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator showed a clear “risk-on” environment in previous weeks, driven by strong corporate earnings in Europe, supporting upside moves in companies such as Volkswagen. However, in the current session, the indicator has shifted back to a neutral reading, reflecting a more cautious market stance amid macroeconomic and sector uncertainty.
From a fundamental perspective, the potential rapprochement between Volkswagen and BYD at the Dresden plant adds a relevant strategic dimension. Although there is still no confirmed agreement, the market interprets this potential collaboration as a sign of industrial pragmatism: optimisation of underutilised capacity in Europe and indirect entry of Chinese manufacturers into the German production ecosystem. If materialised, this factor could act as an additional medium-term catalyst for the stock.
In the coming months, investors will remain focused on industrial agreements, union pressure, and the impact of US tariffs, all of which could define the next directional move for VOW3.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
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