SAP: The Software Behind the World’s Supply ChainsABOUT: SAP is the world’s largest provider of enterprise application software and the global leader in enterprise resource planning. Its products connect finance, procurement, human resources, manufacturing, supply chains, travel, expenses and customer management. The company earns revenue primarily through cloud subscriptions, software licenses and maintenance services, with its legacy on-premises business steadily shifting to the cloud.
The pitch is straightforward: SAP is a wide-moat enterprise software leader turning a massive installed customer base into a faster-growing recurring-revenue platform. In Q1 2026, cloud revenue grew 27% at constant currency, Cloud ERP Suite revenue grew 30%, operating profit increased 24%, and current cloud backlog reached €21.9 billion. With AI increasingly integrated into its mission-critical applications, margins expanding and the supplied valuation sitting approximately 50% below fair value, SAP offers an attractive combination of durable switching costs, visible growth and valuation upside.
SAP offers a combination that is difficult to find:
Wide moat: mission-critical software, high switching costs, complex implementations and deeply embedded customer workflows.
Visible cloud growth: the €21.9 billion current cloud backlog provides substantial forward revenue visibility.
Operating leverage: recurring cloud revenue is growing faster than total revenue, while operating profit is expanding faster than both.
Enterprise AI distribution: SAP can introduce AI directly into the finance, supply-chain and operating systems customers already use.
Valuation support: the supplied Morningstar estimate places the stock approximately 50% below fair value.
STATS:
GreenBlue: 1,023 / 2,500
GreenRed: 520 / 2,712
Morningstar: 5 stars; approximately 50% below fair value
Moat: Wide
Capital allocation: Standard
Fair-value uncertainty: Medium
GuruFocus: 77 / 100
Risks: SAP has historically operated with lower margins and less consistent execution than some major software competitors. Cloud migrations are complex, implementation cycles can be lengthy, and the transition replaces highly profitable maintenance revenue with subscriptions recognized over time. The counterargument is that SAP’s deeply embedded ERP systems, large backlog and high switching costs provide a durable customer base from which cloud revenue, margins and AI adoption can compound for years.
Competitors: ORCL, MSFT, CRM, WDAY, NOW, IBM 
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Zalando SE: AI and Robots Lend a HandZalando SE’s growing use of AI tools and the integration of ABOUT YOU could support further upside in ZAL shares.
Xetra ticker: ZAL
Current price: €25.66
Target price: €29.50
Upside potential: 14.96%
Zalando shares have nearly 15% upside to the €29.50 target price, supported by stronger quarterly results, the expanding use of AI, and the integration of ABOUT YOU. The company reported higher revenue and adjusted EBIT in the first quarter, while management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance and highlighted AI-driven improvements in customer engagement and operational efficiency.
Reasons to Buy
Quarterly revenue growth amid the rollout of AI tools and the integration of ABOUT YOU. In its first-quarter report, Zalando recorded revenue growth, expanded its AI capabilities, and made progress on the integration of ABOUT YOU. In the first quarter, reported GMV increased by almost 22% year over year, while reported revenue rose by 24%. Adjusted EBIT grew by 39% to €65 million, with a margin of 2.2%. On a pro-forma basis, GMV amounted to €4.3 billion, up 6%, while revenue reached €3 billion, up 3.4%.
Management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, noting that AI is improving both customer engagement and operational efficiency. Around 10 million marketplace visitors used the company’s AI assistant during the quarter, compared with 6 million in all of 2025. Warehouse robots autonomously process around 2 million items per month, while computer-vision tools process approximately 6,000 product images per day. Around 85% of these images are uploaded to the platform within three days.
Recommendations from leading investment banks. Twenty-six investment banks currently cover Zalando, 20 of which rate the stock “Buy.” These include Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas, each with a target price of €35; UBS, with a target price of €36.50; and Citi, with a target price of €42. The remaining six banks rate the stock “Hold.” The average target price is €35.
Technical outlook. ZAL shares have broken above the downtrend that began in February 2025. After testing resistance at €27, the shares pulled back. A sustained break above this level could pave the way for a move toward €29.50.
Bottom line: The expanded use of AI tools and the integration of ABOUT YOU underpin the upside case for ZAL shares.
Tags - #Freedom Holding #Freedom Broker #Zalando, ZAL, E-commerce, Fashion Retail, AI, About You, GMV, Revenue Growth, Adjusted EBIT, German Stocks, Investment Idea
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NVDA: BULLISH BIAS FLASHBias: BULLISH — daily, weekly, and monthly all flash bull. Invalidation: a close below the 204–205 support shelf.
Pivot-Ladder:
Daily (Mon, Jul 13):
DR3 — 223.08
DR2 — 217.04
DR1 — 214.00 ← first target
CDL — 207.96 ← daily bias line
DS1 — 204.92 ← support shelf
DS2 — 198.88
DS3 — 195.84
Weekly (Jul 13–17):
WR3 — 237.45
WR2 — 224.23
WR1 — 217.59 ← confluence with DR1, ~3.5 apart
CWL — 204.37 ← weekly bias line, stacked on DS1
WS1 — 197.73
WS2 — 184.51
WS3 — 177.87
Monthly (July 2026):
MR3 — 267.46
MR2 — 249.87
MR1 — 224.98
CML — 207.39 ← confluence: sits within half a point of CDL
MS1 — 182.50
MS2 — 164.91
MS3 — 140.02
The setup: CDL (207.96) and CML (207.39) sit within about half a point of each other — the daily and monthly bias lines are effectively the same price. That's rare, and in my tracking, it produces a cleaner signal than either timeframe alone, because a breakthrough this level isn't just a daily event, it's a monthly one too.
Directly below that cluster is a second one: the weekly pivot (204.37) and daily S1 (204.92) sit within about half a point of each other, forming a shelf roughly three points under the pivot cluster. NVDA effectively has two lines stacked close together here, not one.
1._Structure: Above 208, the path of least resistance is up, daily — DR1 at 214.00 first, then weekly- WR1 at 217.59, which cluster within 3.5 points of each other and trade as one zone.
2._A dip between 208 and the 204–205 shelf isn't bearish yet — it's a hold-and-defend zone, buyable as long as the shelf holds on a closing basis.
**_The real invalidation is below 204, not below 208: that's where the daily and weekly floor break together.
Plain English: NVDA's daily and monthly levels are lined up on top of each other, which almost never happens — today's level and this month's level agree. As long as price holds above 208, dips are for buying, targeting 214 then 217.5. A close below 204 breaks the daily and weekly floor at the same time, and that's when the bullish case is off the table.
Nothing here is a black box. The levels are standard pivot math on the prior confirmed session, week, and month.
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan. TPG0: Extreme Mispricing or Deep Value Opportuinty?The Platform Group AG operates a software platform acquiring and scaling B2B and B2C e-commerce channels across Europe, targeting €1B in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). While short-term debt noise and market capitulation have dragged the stock to historical lows around €0.74, smart money looks past fear to evaluate cash flow potential, underlying profitability, and aggressive corporate actions.
💼 Fundamentals
The Platform Group (TPG0) continues to demonstrate strong operational scaling despite market volatility:
Growth & Scale: The company is on track to hit €1.0B in GMV by 2026, backed by consistent M&A execution and software-driven operational synergies across over 20 platform verticals.
Profitability Disconnect: Unlike speculative growth plays, TPG0 generates solid operating profits. EPS stands at €2.04, placing the stock at a trailing P/E ratio under 0.4x—an extreme valuation anomaly driven by panic rather than business deterioration.
Proactive Debt Management: In response to market concerns regarding Nordic bond obligations, management initiated a €5M bond buyback program on July 2, 2026. This aggressive capital allocation directly proves balance sheet solvency and internal liquidity.
Upcoming Catalysts: The Q2/H1 2026 financial report scheduled for August 20, 2026, represents the primary fundamental catalyst expected to re-anchor market valuation to real operational earnings.
Risks: High market volatility, debt refinancing optics, and short-term algorithmic selling pressure. Communication delays regarding debt restructurings can prolong short-term sentiment drag.
📐 Technicals
Capitulation & Flushout Zone: On the daily chart, TPG0 has completed a major liquidity flushout into the €0.73 – €0.75 range. High volume nodes indicate massive turnover from panic sellers to institutional buyers accumulating at rock-bottom valuations.
Resistance & Gap Target: The immediate overhead resistance sits in the €1.09 – €1.15 confluence zone, which aligns with recent rebound highs and the 20-day EMA. A breakout above €1.15 clears the path to fill the price gap up to €1.50.
Long-Term Target: Consensus analyst price targets remain anchored far above current trading levels (historical consensus around €19.00). From an asymmetric risk/reward standpoint, any mean reversion toward a modest 3x–5x P/E multiple implies a long-term target of €6.00 – €10.00.
🎯 The Bottom Line
The market currently prices TPG0 under a worst-case distress scenario. However, active debt buybacks, high per-share earnings (€2.04 EPS), and solid revenue trajectory create a rare asymmetric risk/reward setup for patient value investors ahead of the August 20 earnings catalyst. 
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P911 | PORSCHE | Q3 2026 | Day ChartPorsche AG -
MARKET-BEATING SCORE -3/10
Dividend yield (indicated)
2.14%
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I posted a Ferrari chart last week. Then thought I could do a Porsche chart and since I'm doing a Porsche chart, I'll have to do a VWAGY chart since Volkswagen owns it and so many other automobile companies like Audi, Bugatti, Bently, Ducati, Lamborghini, Porsche, and some others.
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Multiple Time-Frame Analysis; Color Code | Strength favors the higher timeframe.
Yearly timeframe = black
Monthly timeframe = pink
weekly = grey
daily = red
4hr = orange
1hr = yellow
15min = blue
5min = green if they are shown. (Level visibility on intervals is set to timeframe the level was found on and below to keep chart view organized.)
** Candle Science explained **
A Range = two or more consecutive color candles.
There are two types of ranges - accumulation and distribution.
DISTRIBUTION RANGES DEFINED:
When price is above a distribution range, these candles/levels act as support.
(BS) BACKSIDE Candle - First distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
(FS) FrontSide Candle - Last distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Distribution candles are used as support.
ACCUMULATION RANGES DEFINED: When price is below an accumulation range, these candles/levels act as resistance.
INVERSE BACKSIDE (Inv.BS) - First Accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation. = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
INVERSE FRONTSIDE (Inv.FS) - Last accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Accumulation candles are used as resistance. 
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Bayer improves its valuation following Roundup legal relief
Bayer (XETRA: BAYN) improves its valuation following Roundup legal relief
Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Bayer shares posted a strong rally after the company announced the creation of Ruveon, a new entity that will consolidate its U.S. glyphosate business, which includes the Roundup brand. The move comes alongside a significant easing in the legal overhang after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to review a case related to the herbicide, a decision that strengthens the company’s legal position against the large number of pending lawsuits.
The development has been well received by the market, as it reduces part of the uncertainty that has weighed on Bayer’s valuation for years following the acquisition of Monsanto. The restructuring will allow the U.S. glyphosate business to be managed more independently, improving operational flexibility and leaving the door open to potential future corporate actions.
The improvement in the legal backdrop also triggered a positive reaction from analysts. Deutsche Bank upgraded Bayer from Hold to Buy and raised its price target to 60 euros, arguing that the market could begin to re-evaluate the upside potential of its pharmaceutical and agricultural businesses, rather than focusing on Roundup-related litigation.
From a technical perspective, the news acted as a clear bullish catalyst. The share price broke through key resistance levels in yesterday’s session on significantly higher volume, closing at a high of €53.92 per share. This reinforces the structure of higher highs and higher lows that has been in place since the beginning of the year, particularly since the strong upward impulse starting in early June.
As long as the price remains above the breakout zone, the bias remains positive, with the €60 level gaining relevance both from a technical standpoint and due to alignment with Deutsche Bank’s new valuation. The €58.74 and €62.30 zones represent notable resistance levels from 2023 and may act as reference points in a continuation scenario toward that area.
Currently, RSI stands in overbought territory at 82.89, while MACD shows a positive histogram with both the signal and MACD lines trending firmly upward, confirming strong bullish momentum. According to the ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator, overall market risk has remained neutral in recent sessions, suggesting that the move is primarily driven by stock-specific factors.
Overall, the reduction in legal risk and the restructuring of the glyphosate business improve the perception of Bayer’s fundamentals and could help narrow the long-standing valuation discount driven by uncertainty.
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Adding Rheinmethall at the current priceRheinmetall is currently trading around €1,071 after a brutal June that saw the stock crash nearly 23% in a single month. The main trigger was Germany's abrupt cancellation of the €12 billion F126 frigate program on June 24, which sent shares down 19% in one day alone. That's the big drop visible on the chart — it's a panic event driven by one contract loss, not a sign the business is broken.
The recovery has already started. The stock bounced 4–5% as bargain hunters stepped in, and on June 30 the company confirmed a new Ukraine artillery contract with production already running in Spain, scheduled for delivery in Q1 2027. The core defense business is very much alive.
From a fundamental standpoint, the setup looks attractive. 18 analysts currently rate the stock a Strong Buy with zero sell ratings, and the average price target sits at €1,765 — roughly 68% above where it trades today. The next earnings report on August 6 could be a major catalyst, with revenue expected to hit €3 billion for the quarter.
On the chart, the plan is to ride a recovery back to €1,464 as the first target, which would represent a full retracement of the panic drop, and then on to €1,942 where the stock was trading before everything fell apart. The key level to watch on the downside is €932 — that's the floor. If it breaks below there with conviction, the trade is invalidated.
Risk/reward at current levels is solid, but the August earnings report is the real test. A miss there could put pressure on that support zone quickly. 
Long
Triangle, triangle....Let's go again....and Fail again?
Stock is completing a triangle ABCDE Formation with Wave E bouncing at the 61,8 % Fibonacci lvl of Wave D.
Before that, the stock bounced of a second ATL, forming a bullish divergence on the RSI on it's way.
Now it is crucial to look for stock price reaction at the breakout.
Expect a breakout and retest at best.
Risk & Reward can be set very tight, since triangle is nearing its end formation
Fundamental:
Stock is about to release 2025 numbers. Considering the fact, that medical cannabis is somewhat legal to be obtained online, I expect a bump in growth for 2025.
Profitability should be reached in 2026 however according to the company, with 2025 just failing a net zero, after years of losses.
Legally:
Politically challenging times ahead, since online cannabis market, could be adressed by an ongoing reform. 
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Mercedes-Benz Group — Channel Support Under PressureFrom a broader perspective, Mercedes-Benz Group remains in a bearish market structure, continuing to trade inside a descending channel that currently defines the overall directional bias.
At the moment, price is sitting around an important technical area where the lower boundary of the bearish channel aligns with a strong support zone — creating a decisive region that may influence the next directional move.
This area becomes especially interesting because support and channel structure are converging, increasing the probability of a market reaction.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ Bullish corrective scenario:
If price respects the current support and shows signs of rejection, we may see a corrective move higher within the descending channel before the broader trend is reassessed.
→ Bearish continuation scenario:
If support fails to hold and price breaks below the current area with confirmation, further downside may become more probable, with attention shifting toward the next major support zone.
At this stage, the focus is not on predicting a reversal but on observing how price behaves around this decisive location.
For now, the key question is:
Will support trigger a corrective rebound, or will sellers push price toward the next support level?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#MercedesBenz #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Investing #StockMarket #MarketStructure #RiskManagement Volkswagen Long-Term Structural CompressionXETR:VOW
Volkswagen is not a short-term trading chart here. This is a multidecade structural map.
The chart shows three major reference points: 1998, 2008 and 2021. Each of these periods created an important reaction zone, but the most important message is the long-term compression between the falling macro resistance and the horizontal support area around €62.
The 2008 spike remains the most extreme event on the chart. That move was not a normal trend continuation. It was a historical distortion, a vertical repricing event followed by a full structural reset. After that peak, Volkswagen never built a clean long-term continuation structure above that region. Instead, the market started forming lower macro highs.
The 2021 peak is important because it confirms the same long-term resistance line. Price moved strongly into that area, but failed again. That rejection created another lower high relative to the 2008 event and kept Volkswagen inside the broader descending macro structure.
The dashed rising line from the 1990s and 2000s acted as a long-term trend support for years. But after the 2021 rejection, Volkswagen lost that rising structure and moved back into a weaker range. This is a major change. It tells us the old long-term upward slope is no longer controlling price.
Now the chart is moving between two important zones.
The first zone is the current lower range around €75–€90. This is where price is trying to stabilize after the 2021 decline. However, stabilization alone is not enough. The chart still remains below the falling macro resistance, so the long-term structure is still compressed.
The second and more important level is the red horizontal area around €62. This is the historical support zone. It connects old market memory from previous cycle structures and also sits near the projected meeting point of the falling resistance line in the future. If Volkswagen returns to that area, it would be a major long-term test.
That level is not just a random support. It is the area where the market would decide whether Volkswagen is still building a multi-decade base, or whether the long-term industrial auto structure is losing another major support layer.
The bullish case is simple but not confirmed yet. Volkswagen needs to hold above the long-term support region and eventually break the descending resistance that has controlled the structure since the 2008 extreme. Until that happens, every rally remains inside a larger compression pattern.
The bearish case is also simple. If the current range fails and price returns to the €62 zone, the market will be testing the most important structural support on the chart. A clean loss of that level would weaken the long-term map significantly.
So the current read is neutral to cautious.
Volkswagen is not in a clean expansion structure. It is not showing a confirmed long-term breakout. It is still trading below macro resistance, after losing the older rising trend structure.
But the chart is also not random. It is approaching the final phase of a long compression between descending resistance and historical support.
The main question is this:
Does Volkswagen defend the old structural base and prepare for a future breakout?
Or does the long-term compression resolve lower?
For now, the chart is not giving the final answer.
It is showing the test. 
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