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“Mercedes-Benz Stock Struggles Despite India–EU Trade Deal: GlobDespite the landmark India–EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), Mercedes-Benz Group (MGB) stock remains under pressure due to muted near-term benefits, global demand concerns, and structural limitations in the Indian luxury auto market. The deal is historic, but its impact on MGB’s earnings and pricing power is delayed and diluted.
Why MGB Stock Is Still Under Pressure
India–EU FTA: Long-Term Win, Short-Term Stall
The India–EU FTA, signed in January 2026, reduces import duties on European cars from 110% to 10%, but only under a quota-based system and phased over 5–10 years. Mercedes-Benz India CEO Santosh Iyer called it a “landmark event,” but confirmed there will be no immediate price cuts. The FTA’s fine print is still being studied by automakers, and logistics, homologation, and compliance costs remain high.
Luxury Car Demand in India Is Still Niche
Even with tariff cuts, luxury car penetration in India is less than 2% of total auto sales. Buyers remain price-sensitive, and factors like EV adoption, fuel costs, and urban congestion limit demand for high-end ICE vehicles. MGB’s India volumes are growing, but not enough to offset global headwinds.
Global Macros: Drag on Sentiment
The Eurozone slowdown, China’s weak recovery, and US interest rate uncertainty are weighing on auto exports and investor sentiment. MGB’s monthly chart shows a clear downtrend, with price falling to €57.79, well below the long-term resistance at €79.76. The downward swing and declining volume suggest bearish momentum.
No Immediate Earnings Boost
The FTA does not yet translate into margin expansion or EPS growth for MGB. Investors are waiting for clarity on quotas, localization incentives, and regulatory timelines. Until then, MGB’s India story remains strategic rather than financial.
Technical Snapshot
Current price: €57.79
Monthly high–low: €62.34 – €54.89
Resistance: €79.76
Monthly change: –€2.28 (–3.80%)
Volume: 46.94M
Trend: Bearish
Verdict
Mercedes-Benz Group stock is under pressure because the India–EU FTA, while historic, offers no immediate earnings upside. The luxury auto segment in India remains niche, and global macro headwinds continue to weigh on sentiment. Until pricing, volume, and margin visibility improves, MGB will likely trade below its long-term resistance. 
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PUMA with a bullish divergenceThis technical analysis evaluates the 3-day (3D) chart of Puma (PUM), identifying a high-conviction reversal pattern supported by multi-timeframe exhaustion and a clear structural long setup.
1. Technical Setup: The Macro Bullish Divergence
The standout feature of this 3D chart is the pronounced Bullish Divergence between the price action and the RSI (Relative Strength Index).
Price Action: The stock has been in a sustained downtrend, reaching a structural low around the €17.15 - €18.50 zone.
RSI Indicator: While price has been carving out these lows, the RSI has formed a significant higher low, trending upward from oversold territory.
Significance: A bullish divergence on a high timeframe like the 3-day chart is a powerful "macro" signal. It indicates that despite the price hovering at lows, the selling momentum has completely evaporated. This often precedes a major trend reversal rather than just a short-term bounce.
2. Chart Structure: Accumulation & Risk/Reward
Support Validation: The price is currently stabilizing in a clear accumulation zone. The chart shows a rounded bottoming attempt with a series of retests of the €17.15 support level.
EMA/SMA Resistance: The price is currently trading below its key moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200). The EMAs are stacked above (ranging from €20.83 to €33.97), providing a logical "magnet" for a mean-reversion move.
Risk/Reward Profile: The setup utilizes a tight structural stop just below the recent accumulation floor, offering a highly favorable reward-to-risk ratio for a recovery toward the first major EMA resistance.
3. Fundamental Context
Puma continues to hold a strong position in the global sportswear market. While the sector has faced headwinds due to shifting consumer spending, Puma’s brand heat remains resilient, particularly in key performance categories.
Operational Resilience: The company has shown a consistent ability to manage margins despite inflationary pressures and global supply chain shifts.
Valuation: Following the prolonged downtrend shown on the chart, the stock is trading at historically attractive multiples, making it a prime candidate for "value" and "reversal" investors looking for a macro bottom.
4. Trading Execution Plan
Based on the specific parameters identified in the 3D chart setup:
Entry: €18.50 (Current structural pivot/accumulation midpoint).
Stop-Loss: €14.67 (Set below the recent swing lows to invalidate the bullish thesis).
Profit Target: €24.76 (Primary target aligning with the descending resistance and the 100-period EMA).
Conclusion
The 3-Day Bullish Divergence combined with the specific long setup at €18.50 suggests that the worst of the selling pressure is over for Puma. The confluence of RSI momentum and price stabilization makes this a compelling case for a trend reversal toward the €24.76 range. 
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SAP Approaches a Key Weekly Support Area Worth WatchingSAP remains a core European enterprise software name, with its AI-driven cloud transition back in focus.
Technically, price has arrived at a level I’ve been waiting for for quite some time.
The strongest area on the current chart for a mid- to long-term investor to keep an eye on sits roughly between €180 and €206.
Why is this zone so important?
Because multiple technical criteria align in this area in a clean and compact way.
Criteria inside the highlighted box:
1. Channel projections — both larger and smaller structures.
2. Equal waves.
3. Fibonacci retracement (38.2%) — in strong long-term trends, these levels often act as key reaction zones.
4. Round number €200 — psychological levels matter, especially for long-term positioning.
5. Previous highs — the pause in early 2024 now starts to offer liquidity that can act as support.
6. Weekly EMA 200 — last, but definitely not least.
From a purely technical perspective, initiating a mid- to long-term position from this zone would not be a mistake. This clears the first filter — technical structure.
From here, fundamentals and your own thesis should take over.
My role is to make sure you don’t make technical mistakes , and at current levels,you don't.
If this was helpful, feel free to hit the LIKE / Boost button.
See you soon.
Cheers,
Vaido Valneva: Between Correction and Long-Term PotentialXETR:AYJ Hey guys,
I started analyzing Valneva around mid-October 2025 after the company was brought to my attention by a friend. I find it to be a very interesting company and chart. There aren't many ideas or analysis to find on TradingView so I figured I try to make my own. I focused on understanding the price structure and the broader technical context.
From a technical perspective, the stock had already put in a significant bottom below 2 EUR, around 1.75 EUR, in December 2024. From that low, price advanced strongly up to roughly 4.20 EUR.
My analysis is purely chart-based and primarily relies on Fibonacci structures. On the initial 0–A move from approximately 1.75 EUR to 4.20 EUR, I applied a Fibonacci retracement. Price corrected into the projected retracement zone (light blue), overshot at around 10% max. into a lower area. Importantly, price eventually broke above point A, confirming a valid B–C continuation and the start of a sequence.
Following that, I analyzed a larger 0–A structure (green), whose Fibonacci retracement levels are located a bit higher. This broader corrective zone starts roughly around 3.50 EUR (0.5 Fib) and extends to just below 3.00 EUR (0.667 Fib), overlapping with the upper area of the previous correction zone (0.5 Fib light blue). After the price had already tested the 0.5 retracement once in early September and rallied from there, I waited for a second approach. I placed a first limit order in mid November, which was filled in exactly one month later as price moved back into the green corrective zone.
However, I do not assume that the correction is necessarily complete. From my point of view, further downside remains possible. Price could revisit the light-blue corrective area, meaning a deeper overshoot below the green retracement zone. A move not only below 3.00 EUR, but potentially toward 2.80 EUR or even 2.70 EUR cannot be ruled out. I am prepared for such a scenario and would view it as an opportunity rather than a problem.
On the upside, my moderate targets start at around 6.20 EUR and higher, based on the projected extension levels shown in light blue. In a more extended scenario, the broader sequence in green theoretically allows for moves toward the 9–10 EUR area if the higher-level structure plays out.
From a fundamental and news-driven perspective I guess, 2025 has been mixed so far. The company reported negative developments related to the Chikungunya vaccine, which has effectively been put on hold in the U.S.. Additionally, forecasts were revised downward, which clearly impacted price action and led to a second test of the green corrective zone. After the first test in early September, price has now entered this area again in recent days.
Looking ahead, I would not be surprised to see further weakness around or ahead of the Q4 2025 results, as guidance has already been adjusted lower. This could add additional downside pressure independent of the broader technical structure. However since the beginning of 2025 the price is still up more than 75%.
That said, the key long-term catalyst remains the Phase 3 data for VLA15, the Lyme disease vaccine candidate. Phase 1 and Phase 2 results have been very encouraging. If Phase 3 data also turns out positive, this could represent a major inflection point for the company. In that case, current price levels would likely become irrelevant in hindsight.
Price levels seen during the COVID period above 20 EUR are, at this stage, speculative and should be viewed as long-term upside, or to the moon if you will, scenarios rather than basic cases. For now, my focus remains on the current structure: managing entries within the corrective zones, expecting deeper Fibonacci retracement levels such as 0.559, 0.618, 0.667 or lower if reached, and reassessing once meaningful clinical data is released.
I am positioned, prepared for volatility, and willing to add on further weakness. If the upcoming data is positive, I expect a structural trend shift with significantly higher price levels over time. Let's see what happens.
I'd very much like to here your opinions and potential suggestions for improvements :) 
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