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Mercedes-Benz Group — Channel Support Under PressureFrom a broader perspective, Mercedes-Benz Group remains in a bearish market structure, continuing to trade inside a descending channel that currently defines the overall directional bias.
At the moment, price is sitting around an important technical area where the lower boundary of the bearish channel aligns with a strong support zone — creating a decisive region that may influence the next directional move.
This area becomes especially interesting because support and channel structure are converging, increasing the probability of a market reaction.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ Bullish corrective scenario:
If price respects the current support and shows signs of rejection, we may see a corrective move higher within the descending channel before the broader trend is reassessed.
→ Bearish continuation scenario:
If support fails to hold and price breaks below the current area with confirmation, further downside may become more probable, with attention shifting toward the next major support zone.
At this stage, the focus is not on predicting a reversal but on observing how price behaves around this decisive location.
For now, the key question is:
Will support trigger a corrective rebound, or will sellers push price toward the next support level?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#MercedesBenz #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Investing #StockMarket #MarketStructure #RiskManagement Volkswagen Long-Term Structural CompressionXETR:VOW
Volkswagen is not a short-term trading chart here. This is a multidecade structural map.
The chart shows three major reference points: 1998, 2008 and 2021. Each of these periods created an important reaction zone, but the most important message is the long-term compression between the falling macro resistance and the horizontal support area around €62.
The 2008 spike remains the most extreme event on the chart. That move was not a normal trend continuation. It was a historical distortion, a vertical repricing event followed by a full structural reset. After that peak, Volkswagen never built a clean long-term continuation structure above that region. Instead, the market started forming lower macro highs.
The 2021 peak is important because it confirms the same long-term resistance line. Price moved strongly into that area, but failed again. That rejection created another lower high relative to the 2008 event and kept Volkswagen inside the broader descending macro structure.
The dashed rising line from the 1990s and 2000s acted as a long-term trend support for years. But after the 2021 rejection, Volkswagen lost that rising structure and moved back into a weaker range. This is a major change. It tells us the old long-term upward slope is no longer controlling price.
Now the chart is moving between two important zones.
The first zone is the current lower range around €75–€90. This is where price is trying to stabilize after the 2021 decline. However, stabilization alone is not enough. The chart still remains below the falling macro resistance, so the long-term structure is still compressed.
The second and more important level is the red horizontal area around €62. This is the historical support zone. It connects old market memory from previous cycle structures and also sits near the projected meeting point of the falling resistance line in the future. If Volkswagen returns to that area, it would be a major long-term test.
That level is not just a random support. It is the area where the market would decide whether Volkswagen is still building a multi-decade base, or whether the long-term industrial auto structure is losing another major support layer.
The bullish case is simple but not confirmed yet. Volkswagen needs to hold above the long-term support region and eventually break the descending resistance that has controlled the structure since the 2008 extreme. Until that happens, every rally remains inside a larger compression pattern.
The bearish case is also simple. If the current range fails and price returns to the €62 zone, the market will be testing the most important structural support on the chart. A clean loss of that level would weaken the long-term map significantly.
So the current read is neutral to cautious.
Volkswagen is not in a clean expansion structure. It is not showing a confirmed long-term breakout. It is still trading below macro resistance, after losing the older rising trend structure.
But the chart is also not random. It is approaching the final phase of a long compression between descending resistance and historical support.
The main question is this:
Does Volkswagen defend the old structural base and prepare for a future breakout?
Or does the long-term compression resolve lower?
For now, the chart is not giving the final answer.
It is showing the test. 
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PUMA: Multi-Year Downtrend Broken — WCL Retest Before €35–€38?XETR:PUM is sitting at a very interesting technical location.
For years, price was controlled by a major descending trendline. Every recovery attempt was capped by that structure, keeping the bigger picture bearish. But now that trendline has finally been broken to the upside, and that changes the whole conversation.
This is no longer just a stock stuck under a downtrend line. Now the question becomes: was the breakout real, or was it just a liquidity trap?
From my view, the bullish structure is still active.
The chart has a valid bullish ABC sequence, and as long as the B level remains intact, the C target remains a valid draw. That target sits around the €35–€38 zone , which makes it the main upside magnet if buyers continue defending the structure.
What makes this chart even more interesting is the current location. Price is pulling back into the WCL zone , which I view as the buyer defense area. This is where buyers either reload and protect the sequence, or the structure starts losing strength.
BC1 already did its job earlier. It gave the first reload before price expanded higher and broke through the long-term descending trendline. Now WCL becomes the next important test.
If WCL holds, the bullish case stays strong: price defended structure, retested the breakout area, and still has an active C target above.
If WCL fails, then I would watch BC2 as the deeper reload zone. That does not instantly kill the bullish idea, but it would mean buyers need to defend from lower prices before attempting the next leg.
The invalidation remains simple: if B breaks, the bullish ABC sequence is no longer valid.
So for me, the chart is not about blindly buying PUMA. It is about watching whether buyers can defend the WCL after a multi-year trendline breakout.
If they can, the €35–€38 ABC target becomes very realistic.
Not financial advice. 
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Artificial SAP-iencePreliminary Info
SAP sells enterprise resource planning software, known as ERPs, which serve as the actual central nervous system to coordinate accounting, human resources, logistics, and sales for any large organization within a single digital environment.
In recent years, the company has transformed its business model, shifting from selling single licenses to Cloud subscription contracts. It is precisely this transition that guarantees solid and predictable revenue growth for the coming years.
Indeed, the mass migration of its massive legacy customer base to Cloud services generates recurring and stable cash flows that are recording consistent double-digit increases. This is supported by a backlog of future contracts already signed exceeding €21 billion, which secures long-term revenues.
Added to this dynamic is the integration of "Business AI" into its operational software. This allows SAP to increase the average contract value through the upselling of advanced artificial intelligence features, thereby enabling global revenue to expand rapidly thanks to a unique combination of guaranteed renewals and new high-margin revenue streams.
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Analysis
The price dropped by 50%, hitting the €140 support level following the wild sell-off that hit the entire software sector due to fears surrounding the impact of AI.
In addition to the support level, the price also reached the Monthly SMA100 (green line), where it has been hovering for a couple of months.
At the moment, a reversal pattern has not yet formed, but I believe a recovery is imminent.
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My Personal Take
In my opinion, this hoax about AI causing software companies to go bankrupt is just manipulated news designed to push the sector's leading giants down to their lows.
These companies hold hundreds of patents and confidential databases stored in proprietary formats… it is far more likely that these very companies will reap the greatest benefits from using AI in the coming years.
This is the best time to take a position before takeoff.
Updates to follow.
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