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Epic Grand Supercycle CorrectionWe are witnessing an epic grand supercycle correction in one of the best performing stocks over the last couple of decades. This stock went vertical for 14 years, but what goes up must come down. This stock is owned by many Australian investors, I understand it to be a top 5 name in the Australian stock exchange, a crown jewel in their biotech industry.
This stock peaked in February 2020, as the Covid crash was starting to unravel. The massive drive to produce vaccines kept this stock going. Record profits and stellar growth continued to keep the stock price in a strong position. However, the last 12-16 months have been a disaster. Reasons for the drop:
1. Biotech de-rated post COVID boom
2. RFK and general anti-vaccine sentiment from the public
3. Earnings compression in this capital intensive business. Single digit near term growth
The technicals line up with the fundamentals - an epic 5 wave move up. Followed by an ABC correction, rejected at the Golden Pocket retracement. So where do we sit down? The 200 Month moving average (yes, the monthly, a complete reset!). The Golden pocket retracement level and RSI of 29, another full reset.
Is there reasons to be bullish? Not in the short term, this is not a quick trade and requires patience. If you are indeed a long term investor, expect a 18-24 month turnaround story just to get back on track in the world's leading Plasma derived therapeutics company. CSL is also the second largest influenza producer, though they pan to spin off this business (Seqirus). Companies like this are not built overnight, it takes many decades and the barrier to entry are extremely high.
I will DCA here for a longer term hold. This adds defensiveness to any tech heavy portfolio. I would like further downside pain before scaling in more heavily. Not financial advice. 
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Never Sell CSL?In the Australian stock market, for years and years there was a saying:
“Never sell CSL.”
This informal mantra was common among investors and brokers and reflected CSL Limited’s reputation as a blue-chip, defensive, growth-and-dividend stock. The idea was that CSL’s business in plasma-derived therapies and vaccines was extremely stable, high-quality, and consistently growing, making selling the stock almost unthinkable.
Key reasons behind the saying:
CSL had strong, predictable earnings and cash flow.
It consistently paid and increased dividends, making it attractive for long-term investors.
It held dominant positions in certain therapies, providing defensive qualities even during market downturns.
Over decades, it demonstrated strong share price growth.
The phrase was never an official rule but rather a shorthand among investors for “hold forever unless something significant changes.”
Well over the last few years, a lot changed. The once market darling has experienced some truly turbulent times.
Why the mantra is changing
Valuation risk: CSL’s share price has grown substantially; some analysts see it as expensive relative to earnings.
Global competition: Biotech rivals and generic products may pressure margins over time.
Operational risks: Plasma supply, regulatory hurdles, and R&D outcomes introduce uncertainty.
Market shifts: Investors now weigh CSL against higher-growth biotech or diversified portfolios rather than just “blue-chip safety.”
Interest rate environment: Higher rates make defensive growth stocks like CSL less attractive relative to other sectors.
Current perspective
CSL remains a high-quality, defensive growth stock, but the “never sell” mantra is less absolute. Long-term holding is still reasonable, but investors are encouraged to assess valuation, portfolio fit, and alternatives.
Some holders now trim positions to rebalance or take profits rather than blindly hold forever.
Bottom line:
CSL is still top-tier, but modern portfolio thinking treats it as a strong, but not untouchable, asset.
At the moment its price on the monthly shows that it could be at a good value area with a history of swing back up around 40% or so and its been regaining ground recently with some momentum if you look at the daily.
Could be worth a watch. 
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43% gain on Ramelius. This is why I sold.Thanks for viewing,
May 22nd to Oct 13th. It wasn't a trade - and I didn't have a stop-loss. Actually, I intended to hold for multiple years. This is why I exited.
- RBC Capital rated them "underperform," based on their projections of Ramelius gold production in 2026 to 2028.They think that production challenges have been understated and will lag even the early indicative lower production numbers for 2026 & 7 as can be seen in their most recent corporate presentations.
- They have delayed their production outlook/ forecast. This is seldom indicative of good news.
- Their production in FY 2025 was just over 300,000 ounces, but this is set to drop to the 200,000+ range for 2026 and 136,000+ in 2027 while they tail-off production at one mine and ramp-up another. ~30% to ~55% less production? No bueno! The "+" represents additional ounces added by Dilgaranga being developed and producing - how much and when is unknown. But I will be looking to re-enter sometime in 2027-8 when things look a little more certain. Their goal appears to be 500,000 ounces in 2030 at this stage. Quite a bit of uncertainty about how and when they will get there at this stage.
Actually, that is about it. Why should I hold a stock while it is predictably underperforming the other gold miners on the ASX 300? Especially, when I can buy back in later at a lower price. It is a great Company, has very low production AISC costs, and has acquired some very high-grade gold resources. When Dalgaranga comes online it will go gangbusters. 
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