ING - Critical Area of Interest This is a valid long setup with mixed cues. Price swept the 22 Sep lows and printed a clean hammer back inside the range, offering either a trade or a longer‑term dividend play. The Aug–Oct pullback came on rising volume (not ideal), but the silver lining is the narrowing candle spreads into the low with high volume, signaling demand stepping in and absorption rather than panic.
Liquidity and composite operator read
- Early reversal risk: It’s still early to call the low. The November sweep wasn’t deep, so the Composite Operator may engineer one more push to harvest liquidity.
- If another flush occurs: A sharp retest toward the yearly S2 pivot could set a monthly bullish hammer/doji, then rotate higher back into the range.
Trade Plan
Scenario 1 – Higher risk, price action led
• Initial target: Mid‑range EQ, aligning with the monthly FVG EQ and the local 50% level
• Extended target: $3.50 if price accepts above the range midpoint and holds retests
• Invalidation: November low (tight SL to respect the risk)
Scenario 2 – If November low breaks
• Entry: Look for a bullish hammer/doji close above the yearly S2 pivot
• Confirmation: Add to the position once price closes back inside the range
• Targets: Same as Scenario 1, but with improved risk‑reward if the flush plays out
Bottom Line
Conflicting signals remain, but the structure is tradable. Respect the downside via the November low, and let the chart dictate whether this is absorption turning into rotation.
Long
