Page 7 | Ideas and Forecasts on Stocks — Australia — TradingView

STO building up for a break out OIL price is dead while other commodities are rocketing up. Major disconnect in GOLD and OIL prices. I am overweight on WDS so I think i'll pick up more STO, which also pays a solid dividend. I will average down for more STO and wait for the imminent breakout. I picked up the gold miners when they were unloved over the past decade. Oil should be over $200/Barrel but there is shadow oil being shipped all over which is not counted in the official numbers. Technically STO has formed a nice symmetrical triangle setup. Price breakout showing massive potential for a breakout to the upside. The longer the price congests, the bigger the breakout will be.

SDR | Golden Zone Reload — Bulls Aren’t Done Yet!After reacting beautifully to our prior call near $3.59, SDR has continued to deliver strong bullish structure. Price has now retraced from recent highs, forming a clean re-entry opportunity within the golden zone, perfectly overlapping a daily/weekly fair value gap (FVG). This confluence area could act as a high-probability demand zone, where price may form a higher low before targeting the next liquidity levels. If the zone holds, the next major objectives remain $7.90 and $11.35, aligning with the broader bullish market structure. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).

by INSIDER_INTEL

Bearish potential detected for AGL Entry conditions: (i) lower share price for ASX:AGL along with swing of DMI indicator towards bearishness and RSI downwards, and (ii) observing market reaction around the share price of $9.00 (open of 28th November). Depending on risk tolerance, the stop loss for the trade would be: (i) above the declining 200 day MA (currently $9.55), or (ii) above the recent swing high of $9.63 from 3rd December.

Potential outside week and bullish potential for PYC Entry conditions: (i) higher share price for ASX:PYC above the level of the potential outside week noted on 16th January (i.e.: above the level of $1.755). Stop loss for the trade would be: (i) below the low of the outside week on 15th January (i.e.: below $1.595), should the trade activate.

Potential outside week and bullish potential for MYR Entry conditions: (i) higher share price for ASX:MYR above the level of the potential outside week noted on 19th December (i.e.: above the level of $0.475). Stop loss for the trade would be: (i) below the low of the outside week on 18th December (i.e.: below $0.44), should the trade activate.

Potential outside week and bullish potential for HMC Entry conditions: (i) higher share price for ASX:HMC above the level of the potential outside week noted on 9th January (i.e.: above the level of $4.14). Stop loss for the trade would be: (i) below the low of the outside week on 6th January (i.e.: below $3.73), should the trade activate.

MNB = Must Not Bust Up up and away. This stock has disappointed hard, but the cycle is here to save the day. Give it half a year and you may get 1x. If not, I will delete this post like it never happened. The arc will save the day though, so I threw away the delete key.

by StockTrades12345

INCOMING BULL RUN ON #DMP Price is at discount on the higher timeframe, 12month. investors are accumulating longs which is evident with that wick printed. it's even leaving a balanced price range on the lower timeframe.

04:01

Breakout Retest With Upside Potential NMR is shaping up as a high‑risk, high‑reward opportunity. After the strong impulse to $0.225, price has retraced nearly 80% back into the breakout zone. This reinforces why risk management matters and why chasing vertical moves is never the play. The week ending 21 December printed a clean weekly hammer right above key support. There’s no guarantee the pullback is finished (there never is), but the demand that stepped in is notable. Price also swept the monthly FVG on solid volume, a move that likely flushed late longs and trapped fresh shorts on the breakdown. It is also worth noting that we will be getting new yearly pivots in the new year, therefore need to treat the current pivots as weaker support/demand since it's near the end. Trade Scenario (Aggressive) Entry: • Current levels are valid since price has already broken above the weekly hammer high. Stop‑loss: • Just below the hammer low. Take‑profit: • Just under the 50% range level, which aligns with a small LVN, a logical area for first reaction. Further targets can be trailed with subsequent higher lows Trade Scenario (Conservative) • Look for a rally from here, followed by a pullback and breakout that forms a new higher low. • Depending on how strong the initial push is, the same targets from Scenario 1 can be used. • his approach trades a bit of profit for clearer confirmation and a more structured trend shift.

APZ (Australia) - The Affordable Housing Trend Setter Aspen Group has had a really solid run over the last year, putting on a gain of roughly 140% . Based in Australia, they operate in the affordable accommodation sector, managing residential communities, retirement villages, and holiday parks. It isn’t the flashiest business model, but the trend has been incredibly consistent. They have quite a few places that specialise in over 55 living with less than $90k annual salaries and with Australia's rapidly aging population and some of the highest real estate prices in the world, these guys are doing pretty well with lots of demand now and into the future. Fundamentally, this momentum is being driven by the tight housing market down here. There is a genuine shortage of affordable options, and Aspen fills that gap nicely with lower-cost rentals and homes. Revenue and earnings have generally tracked well because the demand is so sticky. Technically, the chart structure is very clean. You can see it trading inside a well-defined rising channel. The price has pulled back slightly but is holding up well above the trend support even with todays pullback - caused by the overall market dropping on Greenland tensions. The RSI has cooled down to around 55, which resets the momentum without signaling a reversal. The MACD is flat, which suggests the selling pressure is minimal. Need to make sure it heads back up before any entry, but certainly might be worth a watch. .................................................. PLEASE NOTE: Nothing I post is trading advice. All investing involves risk, and past performance doesn’t predict future results. Trends can and do end. For 2026 , my goal is to try and post one new asset each day. Something outside the usual gold, silver, BTC, or big tech names. I like to find stocks worldwide showing steady trends with some good gains, a recent pullback, and signs of renewed strength. I don’t necessarily hold positions in these. They are simply companies I find interesting at the time of posting. I’ll often revisit them within a week to see how they went and share any updates. If you enjoy these posts, please BOOST and FOLLOW ME to discover more under-the-radar stocks and businesses from around the world. ..................................................

Potential buy before more downside.Potential buy before more downside. Head and shoulders forming for further downside.

My Target for MATSA is 10x within 2 years Hi, thanks for viewing. I just added another 12% to my MATSA position today. I'm not ruling out adding more at this stage, but for now I'm quite happy. My valuation of Matsa is simply very different to the market presently, maybe I can get some comments and discussion going. A few months they released a forecast for free cashflow from their Devon open-pit mining operations that is using a third-party mining Company and toll milling. This was in their RIU presentation in May 2025. They are expecting 50,000 ounces of gold at 4.6g/t over 18 months. At AUD5000/oz they project free cashflow at AUD95.5 million. Gold today sits at AUD5165/oz / USD3365 and appears to have strong underlying support. Goldman Sachs is projecting USD4000/oz by mid-year 2026, so in this environment of tail-winds for gold it is difficult to see the Devon open-pit returning less than AUD100mil, in all likelihood it will be substantially more. At 95m over 18 months is AUD5,277,777 per month or AUD63.33mil in 12 months. If the Company was valued at 7.5 times *free cashflow* (a relatively normal valuation in mining - low-side I use a multiple of 5 and high side I use 10) this would potentially put the Market Cap of Matsa at $475mil. Roughly, 475m/ current market cap of 56.2m = 8.45 times upside. This is before considering the sale of the vast majority of their Lake Carey project to Anglo Gold. That deal has had Anglo pay 5m in deposits, has already gone unconditional. There are two more deposit payments of 1.5m coming, but the final decision has not been made on the deal i.e. the exercise price hasn't been 'locked in.' At (1.875 times the gold price) x 936,000 ounces = an additional payment of AUD90,645,750 using todays gold price (plus an additional 'up to' AUD20mil for additional ounces discovered on the tenement (no time limit). Potentially, another 93m will come in from the Anglo deal. How do I adjust my valuation to account for this influx in free cash? Serious question. Absolute worst case scenario is that zero multiple applies (as it isn't actually earnings from operations), so my projected market cap of $475m would just add an additional 93m = 568m / 56.2m = 10.1 upside for Matsa over the next 18 to 24 months. I feel that Anglo is more likely than not to finalise the sale, and do so well within the 18 month window (better to exercise at USD3300 gold than at USD4000 gold - better for Anglo). The only thing that concerns me is that doesn't leave Matsa with much in the pipeline after Devon is depleted. Fortitude North (retained by Matsa) is yet to be defined as an underground resource - despite some rather interesting intercepts. There do appear to be a number of high-grade intercepts adjacent to the Devon pit, with dirt up to 60g/ton just to the north-west and 5g/ton dirt north-east and east of the pit shell. Definite potential for Devon to be expanded. Will it be expanded and by how much is unknown at this stage. However, they appear to be a small resourceful Company that is very good at identifying and developing drilling targets. They will be able to do a lot more when cashed up vs now. So, I am investing for the near-term, with potential for it to become a long-term hold. Thanks for taking the time to read all that. Maybe you get a sense of my disbelief of how cheap Matsa is. Everyone is apparently waiting until the last minute to buy when the big announcement is released. I'm just buying while it is crazy cheap. Best of luck everyone.

How a massive slide in Paladin Uranium ASX, is no more I walk you through here on the monthly chart, for ASX stock Paladin Energy. See what appears as Topping structure 2007, dialing into that pre GFC period reveals a double top & the massive sell off, which is apparent on a Monthly chart & means massive selling and falls of around 2000% top to bottom. But now the tide is rising again for Paladin, we see its bottom April of 2025 when Pres. Trump gave the Tarrifs a reprieve which got a steroid shot into stocks. All smooth sailing as the USD turned down & now of course AUDUSD is bullish on higher time frames and is extending this year to easily tap 0.70. Indicators then indicate the alignment. Simple as that. No, why would I use a stop loss if Im seeing all this upward momentum. But thats me. I pull the trigger when I need to. To stop big losses.

by MusicalNightz

Sideways No More?Waypoint REIT (WPR) has been range bound for nearly six years, but the current structure hints at a potential breakout. Price has retraced to the top of the long-term range and is now finding support at two key 50% levels projected from major swing highs and lows. Trade Scenario 1: Aggressive Entry Entry: Current levels Stop Loss: Just below the bullish engulfing candle from the week ending 19 Oct Target: Initial TP just under the yearly R2 pivot. Beyond that, trail your stop below new swing lows to manage risk. Minimum Range Target: $3.70 This setup favors traders looking to front run the breakout with tight risk control. Trade Scenario 2: Conservative Confirmation Entry: Wait for a clean breakout and hold above the $2.82 high Stop Loss & Targets: Same as above initial TP near R2, then trail stops with structure This approach suits those prioritizing confirmation over early positioning.

Bullish potential detected for AX1 (reversal of bear Darvas box)Entry conditions: (i) higher share price for ASX:AX1 through Darvas bearish stop of $0.97 along with swing up of indicators such as DMI/RSI. Stop loss for the trade would be below the prior swing low of $0.89 from 18th December.

ELD.ASX - Elders confirms breakout?Downtrend stucture as been broken - Price has been in a decending trendline (lower highs) - That trendline has now cleanly broken to the upside, not just wicked through - Importantly, price has closed above the trendline, which is what turns a break into a confirmation

by Aussie_Rocket

CBA To Bounce from Support?With the risk of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hikes rising, the ASX financials sector could face further pressure ahead. I therefore retain my bias that CBA will eventually break below 150. For now, however, it continues to hold above this level while the broader ASX enjoys a materials-led bounce. The longer support holds, the greater the chance CBA attempts to close the gap with the ASX over the near term — provided the index itself does not roll over. CBA remains above support despite Wednesday’s high-volume bearish candle, and a bullish pin bar has since formed. Bulls could look to fade dips within Thursday’s range for a minor counter-trend move towards the 156.10 high. A break above this level would open the door to a move towards 160. Beyond that, I will continue to look for evidence of a swing high, in anticipation of an eventual break below 150. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index

Post‑Spring Retrace Into Key Zone — Eyes on $15.78 APA is starting to look constructive here. After the initial move out of the spring, price tagged a key 50% retracement measured from the ATH down to the spring low. We’re now seeing a controlled pullback into a meaningful area of interest. Why the setup still holds - The spring remains intact, which keeps the broader accumulation thesis valid. - Volume on the spring was lighter than the Selling Climax, suggesting the market isn’t motivated to drive price back into deep supply. - That typically reduces the probability of a full retest and instead favors a shallower pullback before continuation. Upside structure - First target sits near the range highs, where we’ll get the first real test of demand. - A strong breakout from that zone opens the door to a minimum 200% pattern extension, projecting toward $15.78 with a strong possibility of much higher price due to the time of accumulation.

3-Year Breakout with LVN Precision SEEK has broken out of a multi-year range and is now testing the upper boundary to gauge buyer commitment. This is a critical zone. Price action here will reveal whether markup is ready to accelerate or pause for a reload. Trade Scenario Begin scaling in as price has reached the top of a Low Volume Node. This zone typically lacks price acceptance, so there is a strong chance of a brief dip before continuation. If price does pull back, monitor the buy zone for a second entry/scale in opportunity. Risk management remains essential. Since a higher low has not yet formed, the stop loss should sit below the Last Point of Support. Once a new higher low is confirmed, the stop can be moved accordingly to lock in structure. Targets Initial target sits just below the all-time high For extended upside, trail the stop loss using newly formed swing lows to capture continuation

Here is an Aussie signal of China's reemergence I recently wrote about Sky Metals ASX and what the chart was telling me. I said, "multi 10X gains, its a smaller miner, now RIO climbs at ATH''s and the tapping ema tells me everything I need to know. Why brokers maybe don't like how I interpret charts. I said AUDUSD is also in a massive push higher and I wrote on trading view about how I was seeing China on excessive need for resources in the next few years and how a push to 0.78 could occur with bullish patterns on higher time frames. Anyways, Sky Metal's should be there from me I publicised in the TV ideas about 2 or 3 weeks ago and my case for AUDUSD sitting on a bullish monthly pattern. MusicalNightz. Before I made the claim for AUDUSD to flip risk assets including Bitcoin (usually breaks out first as a market indicator and would be the beneficiary when and if the EUR takes the upper hand on a pullback from DXY (EURUSD is 80% of the index) and naturally moving in tandem other Crypto's. much higher (BTCUSD usually moves first), I made the case for EURUSD breaking out above 1.1920, I said a fake breakout of the dollar index could occur first and that the dollar won't continue higher like its run on President Trumps vote back into power.

by MusicalNightz

Brutal Reveral candle That reversal candle perfectly hit the top of my bear flag channel yesterday. This stock is going down. 3.20s first stop but a break there and the lows of the past 12 months come into play.

Bullish potential detected for KLR Entry conditions: (i) higher share price for ASX:KLR along with swing up of indicators such as DMI/RSI, and (ii) observing market reaction around the $0.19 resistance area from 21st November. Depending on risk tolerance, the stop loss for the trade would be: (i) below the potentially rising 30 day MA (currently $0.161), or (ii) below the recent swing low of $0.15 of 29th December, or (iii) below the ultimate swing low of $0.125 of 15th December.

CBA/BHP to 1 Financial engineering is dead. The commodity super-cycle is here. We're going to 1.