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ASX:ALD AMPOL — Strong Trend, Historical Extension, Limited UpsiAMPOL — Strong Trend, Historical Extension, Limited Upside
If the crisis is restricting oil supply or shipping routes, where does Ampol get the crude to refine?
Good for Ampol: fuel/product shortages can push refining margins much higher.
Bad for Ampol: crude can become more expensive, freight costs can rise, suitable barrels can become harder to source, and physical supply itself can become the bottleneck.
So the key point is:
A fuel shortage can help Ampol only if it can reliably source crude/feedstock and the refining margin widens faster than its crude and freight costs rise. A crude-supply crisis is not automatically bullish for a refinery.
43.25 → 36.5 → 30.6 → bounce ~34.4 → reassess
The important part is the route and the reaction points along the way — not expecting price to move in one straight line.
As price changes, the map adapts to the evidence. Check the updates for any changes to the route.
No narrative needed. No crystal ball — just the map.
I’m not trying to predict the unknown.
I’m trying to chart it.
I’m trying to be a Chart Navigator.
— Cay7mon
Likes and comments are always welcome 😄
About this map:
This forecast map isn’t trying to predict the exact price. It maps the probable direction, route and reaction points so there’s a game plan ahead of time. 
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Commonwealth Bank of Australia — Bullish Setup | Target 176Commonwealth Bank of Australia is currently presenting a strong buy-side opportunity, with the market structure beginning to favour renewed upside momentum. The broader setup indicates that buyers are gaining influence, creating the potential for a continued advance toward the 176 target. 📈🔥
The bullish view is based on the overall price structure, momentum and the conditions identified through my trading methodology. Rather than reacting to individual candles or short-term fluctuations, the analysis focuses on the larger directional behaviour of the market.
Price action is showing signs that the previous selling pressure is being absorbed, while buying interest is becoming increasingly visible. This shift creates a constructive environment for a potential continuation higher, provided the underlying bullish conditions remain intact.
📊 Trade Setup
- Instrument: Commonwealth Bank of Australia
- Bias: Bullish 📈
- Direction: Buy
- Target: 176 🎯
- Focus: Upside continuation
- Market Structure: Constructive
- Momentum: Buyers gaining strength
The 176 level represents the primary upside objective for this setup. Reaching this area would complete the projected bullish move and confirm the continuation scenario identified in the analysis.
The path toward the target may naturally include short-term fluctuations, but the broader thesis remains focused on higher prices as long as the market continues to maintain its constructive structure.
🔥 Why the Setup Matters
The important factor here is the developing shift in market control.
After experiencing downside pressure, the market is showing characteristics of renewed demand, suggesting that buyers are becoming more willing to support higher prices. If this behaviour persists, the recovery could develop into a broader upward expansion.
The analysis therefore does not depend on simply assuming that price will rise. It is centred on identifying the conditions that can support a sustained move and then allowing the market structure to determine the progression.
🚀 Roadmap
The current scenario can be summarised as:
Selling pressure absorbed → Buyers step in → Bullish structure develops → Momentum expands → 176 comes into focus.
This setup is about maintaining a clear directional framework while avoiding unnecessary reactions to short-term market noise.
As long as the bullish structure remains valid, the primary objective stays firmly positioned at 176.
Buyers gaining control. Momentum turning constructive. 176 is the destination. 🎯📈🔥 
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New ODY Price Action Model for Delayed Decision to MineHowdy,
(Previous chart based on old model here: )
This is a replacement chart that shows our model for ODY as we now anticipate a delay to the Decision to Mine, with expectation of newly negotiated cutoff of Mid-November.
Price action has coiled tightly at the multiyear range between the Long Term Boundaries, new RC drilling results has provided firmer ground for a 520-560 koz MRE, bringing us closer to a 600+ koz with the remaining results to be included within the indicated ounces.
In our previous model, we had an expectation the Decision to Mine would occur with high probability by the end of September, though this model has now inverted with a new base case as a result of a derisked financing path and toll mining arrangement being supported by pit reoptimisation.
What we expect next
Further sideways action in the run up to the end of October, with the first wave occurring in Mid-November with breakout to 5.5c.
Consolidation and retesting of new lows (4.2c) at end of December, start of January.
Limit Order Gap up 11.5c on first ore processing, and expected announcements surrounding nuggety uplift potential.
Consolidation to what we expect to become a new floor at 10c, through negative cashflow period in run up to Q2 results.
A breakout to 15c for the final wave in our model, where positive cashflow occurs.
Assumptions made:
July USDAUD = $1.365
July XAUAUD = $6500-6750
-Toph
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