RAYA: Trend Remains Strong After the Retest ๐ RAYA: Trend Remains Strong After the Retest ๐
The Fundamentals ๐ผ
RAYA remains one of the strongest growth stories on the EGX, supported by diversified operations across fintech, technology, retail, and business services. ๐
Its foreign currency revenues provide a natural hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations. ๐ฐ
Strong revenue and earnings growth continue to support the long-term bullish outlook. ๐
The company's fundamentals remain a key driver behind the ongoing uptrend. โ
The Pulse โก
Although RAYA is trading near the upper boundary of its long-term ascending channel, multiple technical signals continue to support the bullish trend. ๐
The strong fundamentals continue to justify the stock's premium valuation and technical strength. ๐ผ
The stock has successfully broken above a triangle consolidation pattern, confirming renewed buying momentum. ๐
It has also completed an Elliott Wave ABC correction and printed a new all-time high, reinforcing the primary uptrend. ๐
Following the recent market weakness, the stock has pulled back to retest the ABC breakout level around 7.81 EGP. ๐
A bullish reaction from this level would provide an attractive entry opportunity. ๐
If the pullback extends, the next major support sits around 7.58 EGP. ๐ก๏ธ
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Breakout Trigger, 8.28 EGP.
A close above the all-time high confirms the continuation of the bullish trend.
๐ฏ First Target, 8.28 EGP.
A successful breakout and continuation above the all-time high.
๐ Second Target, 9.40 EGP.
The measured move target from the triangle breakout.
๐ Final Target, 11.00 EGP.
The Rumble annual target and estimated fair value.
๐ก๏ธ Support Zone, 7.58 EGP.
A pullback to this level would provide another attractive accumulation opportunity.
โ Stop-Loss, 7.12 EGP.
A daily close below this level invalidates the current bullish structure.
The Verdict ๐ฏ
The long-term uptrend remains intact despite the recent pullback. โ
As long as the stock holds above support, the probability favors a continuation toward new all-time highs. ๐
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Long
EHDR: Triangle Breakout Could Restart the Uptrend ๐ EHDR: Triangle Breakout Could Restart the Uptrend ๐
The Fundamentals ๐๏ธ
EHDR continues to benefit from improving earnings, strong market liquidity, and active retail participation. ๐
The company has returned to profit growth while maintaining one of the highest trading volumes among EGX70 stocks. ๐ฐ
Although valuation remains relatively rich, improving fundamentals continue to support the long-term outlook. โ
The stock remains better suited for momentum trading than long-term defensive investing. ๐
The Pulse โก
After reaching a new all-time high, EHDR entered a healthy corrective phase and is now forming a triangle pattern. ๐บ
The current consolidation is allowing the stock to rebuild momentum before its next major move. โณ
A breakout above the triangle would provide the technical confirmation for a new bullish wave. ๐
Alternatively, a pullback toward my calculated fair value around 2.43 EGP would offer an attractive accumulation opportunity. ๐
The overall bullish structure remains intact while the stock continues to trade above its major support zone. ๐ก๏ธ
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Breakout Trigger, 2.65 EGP.
A close above the triangle resistance confirms the continuation of the bullish trend.
๐ฏ First Target, 2.87 EGP.
A retest of the all-time high.
๐ Second Target, 3.46 EGP.
The next major technical objective.
๐ Final Target, 3.74 EGP.
The long-term upside target.
The Verdict ๐ฏ
The current consolidation should be viewed as a healthy pause within the broader uptrend. โ
The preferred entry is either on a confirmed triangle breakout or a pullback toward 2.43 EGP. ๐ฐ
A daily close below 2.29 EGP would invalidate the current bullish structure and serves as the technical stop-loss. โ ๏ธ
A successful breakout could open the door for a retest of the all-time high followed by a continuation toward higher technical targets. ๐
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Long
Long
Long
Maridive & Oil Services (MOIL) โ Surging to New Highs !EGX:MOIL Weekly Chart
๐ The Big Picture : A Huge Symmetrical Triangle Breakout
If you look at the middle of the chart spanning from mid-2024 through early 2026, MOIL spent nearly two years coiling tightly inside a massive Symmetrical Triangle pattern (the two solid blue lines):
The Compression : Buyers kept pushing the floor higher, while sellers kept capping the rallies, compressing the price into a tight spring.
The Launch : A few months ago, the stock violently exploded out of the top of that triangle on heavy volume, completely shifting into an aggressive bull market.
๐ The Current Setup : Re-test and Ride
After the initial massive breakout, the stock pulled back naturally to catch its breath, retesting the triangle's breakout zone as new support.
As you can see from the most recent weekly candles, the buyers have successfully defended that area and launched a powerful second wave. The stock is currently trading at 0.520 USD, making a clean multi-year high and looking highly energized.
RSI (Strength Meter): The RSI is sitting healthy at 67.82. It is entering strong bullish territory but still has room to run before becoming dangerously overextended.
MACD : The moving averages are crossed over and pointing firmly upward, indicating strong, sustained momentum.
๐ฏ The Trading Plan
The Entry Zone: Because the stock has already broken out and is pumping this week (+7.88%), entries are best made on small intra-week dips towards 0.480 - 0.500 USD to secure a safer risk-to-reward ratio.
Target 1 (Short-term): 0.580 USD (psychological level and previous structural peak from 2018).
Target 2 (Medium-term): 0.650+ USD (approaching the major historical resistance zone seen at the far left of the chart).
๐ก๏ธ Managing the Risk
When riding a high-momentum train, you always need to know where the emergency brake is.
Stop Loss : A weekly candle close back below 0.440 USD would mean the current momentum has failed, signaling a deeper rest is required.
_____________________
Do you think MOIL will comfortably clear the 2018 peaks on this run, or are you waiting for a minor pullback first? Let me know your strategy in the comments! 
Long
Long
BTFH โ Coiling for a Move (But Watch Out for the fakes!)EGX:BTFH Daily Chart
If you've been in the Egyptian market for a while, you know BTFH has a bit of a reputationโit loves to play mind games, shake out weak hands, and move in "cunning" ways before making its real move.
Let's break down exactly what the daily and weekly charts are telling us right now in plain, simple terms.
๐ The Big Picture : Squeezing Into a Triangle
Looking at both the daily and weekly charts, BTFH is currently trapped in a massive tug-of-war (rope pulling game) between buyers and sellers. This has formed a classic Symmetrical Triangle pattern:
The Ceiling (Downtrend): Since peaking at 3.66 EGP, sellers have been capping every recovery at lower points (3.37 EGP, then 3.15 EGP). This is represented by the solid green descending line.
The Floor (Uptrend): On the bright side, buyers are stepping in earlier and earlier, establishing a firm rising floor from the recent low of 2.91 EGP (the pink line).
When a price gets squeezed tightly between a falling ceiling and a rising floor like this, a powerful breakout is usually just around the corner. Currently trading at 3.09 EGP, the stock is right at the apex of this triangle.
๐ Momentum & Volume Check
RSI (Strength Meter): Sitting at a very neutral 54.74, meaning the market isn't overbought or oversold. There is plenty of fuel left in the tank for whichever direction it chooses next.
MACD : The moving averages are virtually flatlining around the zero line, confirming that volatility has temporarily dried up. Itโs the classic calm before the storm.
๐ฏ The "Cunning Stock" Trading Plan
Because BTFH historically loves "fakeouts" (pretending to break out one way just to reverse sharply), we need to be extra disciplined with our entries and risk management.
The Conservative Entry : Wait for a decisive daily candle close above the green trendline (around 3.12 - 3.15 EGP).
Target 1 (Short-term): 3.37 EGP (the previous lower high).
Target 2 (Medium-term): 3.66 EGP (the major peak).
Target 3 (The Dream Target): If it successfully clears 3.66 on high volume, it opens the door to look back toward the psychological 4.00+ EGP levels seen in the weekly history.
๐ก๏ธ Managing the Risk (Don't Get Trapped!)
Given its tricky nature, keeping a tight safety net is mandatory.
Stop Loss : A daily close below 2.91 EGP (breaking the pink rising floor) completely destroys the bullish setup and means it's time to step aside.
Whatโs your take on BTFH this time? Are the buyers finally going to take control, or are we in for another classic fakeout? Drop your thoughts below! Medical Packaging Company (MEPA) โ Ready for a Bounce?EGX:MEPA Weekly Chart
Hello traders! Today we are looking at Medical Packaging Company (MEPA) on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) using the weekly (1W) timeframe. The chart shows a very interesting pattern shaping up that could offer a great risk-to-reward opportunity.
Here is a simple breakdown of whatโs happening in plain English:
๐ The Big Picture : Higher Highs & Higher Lows
If you look at the long-term trend lines (the solid blue line at the top and the pink line at the bottom), MEPA has been trading inside a giant, healthy upward channel.
The Support (Floor): Every time the price drops near the bottom pink line, buyers step in.
The Resistance (Ceiling): Every time it gets close to the top blue line, sellers push it back down.
Right now, we are sitting comfortably in the middle of this giant channel, meaning there is plenty of room to grow upward.
๐ The Short-Term Setup : A Classic "Cup & Handle" or Flag
Zooming into the recent price action (indicated by the dashed yellow curves), the stock looks to be forming a classic Cup and Handle pattern:
The Cup : The stock peaked at 2.02 EGP, dipped down to find a solid floor around 1.30 EGP, and then curved back up to 1.84 EGP.
The Handle : Over the last few weeks, the price has been gently drifting downward inside a tight mini-channel (the teal and blue lines). This is completely normal behaviorโit's just the market taking a breather after a big rally.
Currently trading around 1.67 EGP, the stock is holding up well, and the RSI indicator sitting right around 53 shows that it is neither overbought nor oversold. It is perfectly neutral and primed for its next direction.
๐ฏ Trading Plan
Entry Zone: Current levels (1.65 - 1.67 EGP) look attractive as the stock attempts to find its footing and break out of the mini-downward channel.
Target 1 (Short-term): 1.84 EGP (the recent peak of the handle).
Target 2 (Medium-term): 2.00 - 2.02 EGP (testing the major previous resistance).
Target 3 (Long-term): 2.20+ EGP (aiming for the upper blue trendline).
๐ก๏ธ Risk Management (Stop Loss)
No trade is 100% guaranteed, so protection is vital!
Stop Loss : A daily/weekly close below 1.55 EGP (just underneath the current flag support) would invalidate this bullish setup.
What do you think? Will MEPA break out of the handle this week? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! 
Long
AMER: Triangle Breakout Targets New Highs ๐ AMER: Triangle Breakout Targets New Highs ๐
The Fundamentals ๐๏ธ
AMER continues to recover operationally with a sharp improvement in profitability. ๐
The business benefits from diversified revenue streams across real estate, hospitality, retail, and recurring club memberships. ๐จ
Despite the stronger earnings, the stock remains driven primarily by technical momentum and institutional money flows. ๐ผ
If the earnings recovery continues, the long-term outlook remains constructive. โ
The Pulse โก
After reaching a major support level, AMER attracted strong buying pressure and started a new bullish leg. ๐
The stock successfully broke above its triangle consolidation pattern, confirming a bullish technical breakout. ๐
Today's close at 2.81 EGP places the price directly below a major resistance area. ๐ฏ
The next move will determine whether buyers have enough momentum to challenge the previous all-time high. ๐ฅ
A healthy pullback toward 2.63 EGP would offer a more attractive risk-to-reward entry for new positions. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Breakout Trigger, 2.81 EGP.
A sustained close above this resistance confirms the continuation of the bullish trend.
๐ฏ First Target, 3.00 EGP.
A retest of the all-time high.
๐ Second Target, 3.31 EGP.
The 61.8% Fibonacci extension and the next major technical objective.
๐ Final Target, 3.73 EGP.
The measured move target from the triangle breakout.
The Verdict ๐ฏ
The technical picture has shifted back in favor of the bulls. โ
The breakout remains valid as long as the stock holds above 2.63 EGP on normal pullbacks. ๐ก๏ธ
A daily close below 2.32 EGP would invalidate the current bullish structure and serves as the technical stop-loss. โ ๏ธ
Profit-taking should be considered progressively near 3.00 EGP, 3.31 EGP, and 3.73 EGP. ๐
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Long
BINV: New ATH, But Confirmation Is Still Needed ๐ BINV: New ATH, But Confirmation Is Still Needed ๐
The Fundamentals ๐ผ
BINV remains one of the strongest investment holdings on the EGX, supported by a diversified portfolio across healthcare, fintech, renewable energy, and premium retail. ๐
Management execution remains a key competitive advantage. ๐
The long-term bullish trend continues to be supported by strong fundamentals. ๐
The Pulse โก
BINV has been trading inside a well-defined ascending channel for more than a year. ๐
Today's session printed a new all-time high while testing the upper boundary of that channel. ๐ฏ
Historically, the stock tends to pause near this area before rebuilding momentum for another advance. ๐
A continuation higher now requires another session with strong volume confirming today's breakout. ๐ฅ
Without volume confirmation, a short-term pullback or consolidation would be healthy after the recent rally. โ๏ธ
The long-term trend remains firmly bullish as long as the stock respects the rising channel. ๐ก๏ธ
The Verdict ๐ฏ
The primary trend remains positive. โ
I would avoid chasing the stock after a fresh all-time high without confirmation. โ ๏ธ
A pullback toward 45.00 EGP, 43.00 EGP, or 41.00 EGP would provide more attractive long-term accumulation opportunities. ๐
A high-volume breakout above today's high would signal the next leg of the bullish trend. ๐
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Long
RUBX: High-Risk Momentum Trade with Upside Potential ๐ RUBX: High-Risk Momentum Trade with Upside Potential โ ๏ธ
๐๏ธ Fundamental Review:
๐ Business Quality.
RUBX is a specialized industrial manufacturer producing acrylic, polyurethane, and plastic products for Egypt's construction and industrial sectors. ๐ญ
โ
Strengths & Catalysts.
The stock is attracting strong retail momentum while benefiting from steady domestic demand for locally manufactured industrial materials. ๐
โ ๏ธ Risks.
Weak profitability, volatile earnings, expensive valuation metrics, and exposure to raw material costs make the fundamentals fragile. โ ๏ธ
๐ฐ Valuation.
This is a momentum-driven trade rather than a fundamentally strong long-term investment. ๐
๐ The Pulse:
Despite the weak fundamentals, the technical setup still offers attractive upside potential. ๐
The chart suggests room for an advance toward 16.50 EGP if momentum continues. ๐ฏ
An ideal entry sits around 12.00 EGP, where the risk-to-reward profile becomes more favorable. ๐
The stop-loss should be placed below 10.68 EGP to protect capital if momentum fails. ๐
This should be treated as a fast momentum trade rather than a long-term investment. โก
Avoid allocating a large portion of your portfolio due to the stock's elevated risk profile. โ ๏ธ
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Entry Zone, 12.00 EGP.
A favorable level for a tactical momentum entry.
๐ Stop Loss, 10.68 EGP.
A break below this level invalidates the setup.
๐ฏ Main Target, 16.50 EGP.
The projected upside if bullish momentum remains intact.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
RUBX offers an attractive technical opportunity despite its weak fundamentals.
Position sizing is critical, as this is a high-beta momentum trade with elevated downside risk.
Trade it tactically, protect capital with a disciplined stop-loss, and avoid oversized positions.
---
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OFH: Too Many Barriers Ahead ๐ OFH: Too Many Barriers Ahead โ ๏ธ
๐๏ธ Fundamental Review:
๐ Business Quality.
OFH is a diversified fintech and non banking financial holding company with strong liquidity and exposure to Egypt's digital finance sector. ๐ฆ
โ
Strengths & Catalysts.
A solid cash position and expanding fintech investments provide long term growth potential. ๐
โ ๏ธ Risks.
High dependence on retail sentiment, elevated operating costs, and slow venture returns increase execution risk. โ ๏ธ
๐ฐ Valuation.
I do not recommend the stock at current levels as better opportunities exist elsewhere. ๐
๐ The Pulse:
OFH faces multiple technical resistance levels before any sustainable bullish trend can develop. ๐
The first positive signal is a confirmed close above 0.631 EGP. ๐
A strong Order Block could trigger a rebound toward the 200MA before the next move unfolds. ๐
Even if the rebound succeeds, the stock still faces major resistance at 0.664 EGP, 0.692 EGP, and 0.732 EGP. ๐ง
Only after clearing all these levels would the path toward the 52 week high at 0.82 EGP become realistic. ๐ฏ
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Breakout Trigger, 0.631 EGP.
A close above this level is the first bullish confirmation.
๐ฏ First Resistance, 0.664 EGP.
The stock's primary resistance level.
๐ฏ Second Resistance, 0.692 EGP.
The next major barrier for buyers.
๐ฏ Third Resistance, 0.732 EGP.
Another strong resistance before the highs.
๐ Final Target, 0.82 EGP.
A retest of the 52 week high after clearing all resistance levels.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
I do not recommend OFH at current levels.
The chart contains too many resistance zones to justify a new entry.
Wait for a confirmed close above 0.631 EGP before becoming constructive.
Only a series of successful breakouts would reopen the path toward 0.82 EGP.
---
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Short
EGTS: One Break Away From New Highs๐ EGTS: One Break Away From New Highs ๐
๐๏ธ Fundamental Review:
๐ Business Quality.
EGTS is a premier tourism and real estate developer supported by prime Red Sea land assets and a debt free balance sheet. ๐๏ธ
โ
Strengths & Catalysts.
Strong profitability, exceptional margins, and valuable land monetization continue to strengthen the long term outlook. ๐
โ ๏ธ Risks.
Earnings remain volatile due to irregular land sales, while the stock still trades at a premium valuation. โ ๏ธ
๐ฐ Valuation.
EGTS is fundamentally strong, but I prefer buying confirmed breakouts rather than chasing extended rallies. ๐
๐ The Pulse:
EGTS has regained bullish momentum after completing a healthy pullback. ๐
The stock is attempting to resume its primary uptrend. ๐
One final confirmation is still required with a close above the major resistance at 19.83 EGP. ๐ฏ
A confirmed breakout opens the path toward the all time high at 22.69 EGP. ๐
Beyond the ATH, the next upside targets are 25.32 EGP and 32.50 EGP. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Breakout Trigger, 19.83 EGP.
A close above this level confirms the continuation of the bullish trend.
๐ฏ First Target, 22.69 EGP.
A retest of the all time high.
๐ Second Target, 25.32 EGP.
The next major technical objective.
๐ Final Target, 32.50 EGP.
The long term upside target.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
The long term trend remains bullish and is backed by strong fundamentals.
Wait for a confirmed close above 19.83 EGP before adding new positions.
A successful breakout could quickly retest the all time high.
Above 22.69 EGP, the path opens toward 25.32 EGP and 32.50 EGP.
---
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Long
Long
GBCO: Healthy Pullback, Bulls Need 32.12 ๐ GBCO: Healthy Pullback, Bulls Need 32.12 ๐
๐ The Pulse:
GBCO is struggling to extend its recent bullish rally. ๐
The current pullback remains healthy and does not damage the primary uptrend. ๐
The major support at 30.30 EGP remains the key level to defend. ๐ก๏ธ
A break below 30.30 EGP would shift the technical outlook to bearish. ๐จ
A close above the 32.12 EGP resistance would confirm the next bullish expansion. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ก๏ธ Major Support, 30.30 EGP.
The key level keeping the bullish structure intact.
๐ Breakout Trigger, 32.12 EGP.
A close above this level confirms trend continuation.
๐ฏ First Target, 33.74 EGP.
The next technical resistance.
๐ Fair Value, 34.90 EGP.
My calculated fair value.
๐ Final Target, 37.75 EGP.
The measured breakout objective.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
The long term trend remains bullish despite the recent pullback.
Watch 30.30 EGP and 32.12 EGP closely.
Holding support keeps the bullish structure intact.
A breakout above 32.12 EGP opens the path toward 33.74 EGP, 34.90 EGP, and 37.75 EGP.
---
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Long
MOIL: Breakout Holds if Bulls Defend $0.50๐ MOIL: Breakout Holds if Bulls Defend $0.50 ๐
๐๏ธ Fundamental Review:
๐ Business Quality.
MOIL is showing improving business momentum following a positive Q1 standalone profit announcement. ๐ข
โ
Strengths & Catalysts.
Strong liquidity, a bullish volume divergence, and Q1 standalone profit of $1.9 million support the bullish case. ๐
โ ๏ธ Risks.
The breakout attracted heavy selling pressure, showing that sellers remain active near the highs. โ ๏ธ
๐ฐ Valuation.
The fundamentals are improving, but the breakout still requires technical confirmation before becoming a high conviction trade. ๐
๐ The Pulse:
MOIL broke above the triangle pattern and printed a new 52 week high. ๐
The breakout was supported by the positive Q1 standalone profit announcement. ๐ฅ
Despite the breakout, price failed to close above the 52 week high as strong selling pressure emerged. โ ๏ธ
Holding above the $0.50 level this week would confirm that buyers remain in control. ๐ก๏ธ
A successful defense of this level could open the path toward the next upside targets. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ก๏ธ First Support, $0.50.
Holding above this level keeps the breakout intact.
๐ฏ First Target, $0.56.
The nearest upside objective following the breakout.
๐ Second Target, $0.591.
The next major resistance zone.
๐ Final Target, $0.64.
The long term breakout objective.
๐ด Stop Loss, Below $0.484.
A daily close below this level invalidates the bullish setup.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
The technical structure remains bullish despite today's selling pressure.
Watch the $0.50 level closely for confirmation.
Holding above it keeps the breakout valid and supports further upside.
A daily close below $0.484 is the stop loss signal.
---
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Long 
SWDY Long (Read the description very carefully)ููุง ูุง ุฑุฌุงูุฉ ูุฌู
ุน ููุง ุจูู.
Ok, first of all, go to my profile and search for my TMG trades.
I previously called a major move in TMG from around 50 EGP to 97 EGP, which was nearly a 100% move.
I am referencing that trade because this current setup looks very similar to that TMG call.
I have been watching this stock for a very long time. So when I say this is a serious setup, it means I am genuinely interested.
This time, my stance is simple:
I am aggressively bullish.
Risking 5% to target at least 40% returns.
For every 1,000 EGP traded:
โข Max risk: 50 EGP
โข Target profit: 400 EGP
โข Risk/Reward = 1:8
The math is on our side.
The structure is on our side.
And the stock is considered a blue chip.
So, for this setup, I am choosing to be an aggressive bull.
However, being an aggressive bull does not mean being reckless. It means having strong conviction while still respecting the stop loss, no matter how much I trust the move.
That is the difference between being a reckless aggressive bull and a smart aggressive bull.
My conviction on this setup is extremely high. But regardless of how strong the setup looks, there is only one rule:
STICK TO THE STOP LOSS.
No hope trading.
No emotional holding.
No waiting without a stop loss.
No watching price go against us and hoping it reverses.
If the setup is invalidated, we exit. Simple.
Strong conviction does not mean ignoring risk.
Strong conviction means taking the setup with a clear plan and respecting that plan completely.
Not financial advice. Manage your own risk.
Long
ISMA: Strong Business, Expensive Valuation ISMA: Strong Business, Expensive Valuation ๐พ
ISMA has delivered an outstanding performance over the past year, but its current valuation leaves little room for error and limits the attractiveness of new long-term positions.
The Fundamentals ๐
ISMA operates in one of Egypt's most defensive sectors, supported by steady demand for poultry and agricultural products. ๐ญ
The company generates an impressive Return on Equity of nearly 23%, reflecting strong operational efficiency. ๐
Its integrated production and logistics network provides valuable long-term asset backing. ๐
However, the stock is trading at a significant valuation premium compared to its sector peers. โ ๏ธ
Rising feed costs, grain prices, and utility expenses remain key risks to future profitability. ๐พ
At the current valuation, I would rather wait for stronger fundamentals or a much lower price before considering a long-term investment. โณ
The Pulse ๐
The long-term trend remains constructive. ๐
For investors looking for a short-term trade, the 22.50 area offers an attractive risk-reward setup. ๐ฏ
My upside target would be a retest of the previous all-time high. ๐
A decisive break below 21.00 would invalidate the trade and serves as my stop-loss. ๐
For long-term investors, I would remain patient and wait for a much deeper correction toward the 14.50 region before considering accumulation. ๐
The Verdict ๐ฏ
ISMA is a quality business trading at an expensive valuation. โ๏ธ
The current price does not offer an attractive long-term entry. โณ
Short-term traders can consider buying near 22.50 while respecting the 21.00 stop-loss. ๐
Long-term investors should wait for either stronger fundamentals or a significantly lower valuation around 14.50. โ
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SVCE: Bullish Trend Intact, But Patience Pays SVCE: Bullish Trend Intact, But Patience Pays ๐๏ธ
SVCE has maintained one of the strongest long-term uptrends on the EGX since the beginning of 2024.
The primary trend remains intact, but the stock is now consolidating below a major resistance area.
The Fundamentals ๐
SVCE completed a remarkable turnaround by returning to profitability in FY2025 after posting a significant loss the previous year. ๐
The 2.40B EGP capital increase has strengthened liquidity, supported debt restructuring, and improved the company's financial flexibility. ๐ฐ
The turnaround story continues to attract strong speculative interest and trading volume. ๐
However, the cement sector remains highly sensitive to energy costs and pricing pressure. โ ๏ธ
The large capital increase also introduces dilution risk, requiring stronger earnings growth to support future valuations. ๐
Overall, the business is improving, but the turnaround still needs to translate into sustained long-term earnings growth. ๐ญ
The Pulse ๐
SVCE has respected its long-term rising channel since the beginning of 2024 without a confirmed breakdown. ๐
Breaking above the upper boundary of this channel would require exceptionally strong buying momentum. ๐
For now, the stock is consolidating inside a sideways range just below the upper band of the main uptrend channel. ๐
I would not chase the current price near resistance. โณ
My preferred strategy is to wait for a healthy pullback toward the lower boundary of the rising channel. ๐
That area would offer a much more attractive long-term risk-reward opportunity. โ
Until then, the stock remains a watch rather than a buy. โ๏ธ
The Verdict ๐ฏ
The long-term trend remains firmly bullish. ๐
The turnaround story continues to improve the fundamental outlook. ๐ช
However, the current technical position does not offer an attractive entry. โณ
I will wait for a pullback toward the lower channel support before considering a long-term position. ๐ฏ
Until then, SVCE stays on my watchlist. ๐
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