Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
AIH AnalysisOk, as predicted before long ago, i gave you a good entry at 0.46, but i think there still good chance to make some money in here. Iam very much looking to take this trade, that's why i did some fundamental analysis on this stock which turned out to be a low cap stock.
Ok, lets run quickly through some facts:
1- Economy is doing great in Egypt in general, and its expected a rate cut by Q4 2025.
2- The company previous FY of 2024 ended with a total loss of almost 24 million. Q1 2025 was at loss of almost 1 million
3- There will be Q2 statement and if the company in profit it will be a plus (which is actually very hard to expect, but if its in red with 1 or 2 million EGP i still think it will not be a problem), which might offer an entry point.
To sum it up: 2024 in total loss of 24 million, now Q1 is only 1 million in loss, with expectations that the economy as a whole will do better, so this company also is expected to be in profit later down the road, which explains the surge in price.
Technically,
- This chart took more than 2 hours to understand what is going on and how we should proceed from here.
So there are two case scenarios in here, as iam technically expecting this surge to continue until at least 0.96 to 1 Egp. But of course on the technical level it will never be a straight line to 1 EGP.
So from where the price is at right now.
- Broke a huge down trendline (bullish)
- We are above weekly upper VAH (bullish)
- VWAP is reversing upwards (bullish)
- Recent liquidity has been taken (bullish)
!! Worrying, there are some huge liquidity areas under the trendline, but if whales crashing the stock to reach those areas, i would be amazed.
Now to go deep into details,
we will assume that the price closed above A1 (orange line, on the Daily and Weekly, early sign will be daily), also didn't stretch much or even beyond that zone 1, or the yellow box and will start correcting, there are three areas of interest
1- The black area, this area is not very important as the price could always ignore it (even though its Value area high VAH) and heads to an area which is more liquid and have much higher volume, however, it cant be ignored, so i would put very small amount of money into this zone.
2- The Orange area, now that's an important area as it is the 0.5-0.618 Fib level, break out of a micro trendline and this area has the potential to become a Resistance turned into Support, Additionally iam anticipating VWAP to reach that Orange area by the time price reaches this area. Further, This area has some volume, but not major.
(entry will be discussed later but if you want use the VWAP on the weekly TF as a guide along with volume, then volume spikes and increasing in volume in this area on lower tf once the price touches the VWAP on the weekly have very good hit rate)
3- The Blue area, now thats an interesting area because thats the High Volume Node on the Weekly timeframe, which means bears will face a fierce resistance to break it to the downside also 0.78 Fib level.
Now we assume that the price closed above the A1 on the weekly, and preferably above the yellow area.
then we shift our thinking into longing from this yellow zone and we will have our stoploss under the Orange area. And if you want to snipe the entry, there is a purple line in the middle of the yellow box, now confirm on lower tf once price touch this line, and look for a stoploss below this black box.
Iam very confident that the bears will take some control in the red box marked above and we will have some reaction here, but iam not sure if i should be selling everything in this level, maybe we can take some profit and rotate back during correction, will update when the time comes. 
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long ALCN (read carefully, this might be a very good opp)Uff,thats a tough call to make, but i will make it anyways.
Psychology
- The price has been in consolidation since august 2024.
- Attempt breakout last week, which is interesting. Because this attempt forced all shorts above 24.6 to close their positions. So shorts got hammered and short whales forced them to buy their massive sell orders.
- Then breakout traders turn came up, who also went long anticipating a breakout to the north, and if they bought anything above 24.10 EGP, are now in pain.
- Then swing traders turn comes up. where are those swing traders stops would be? 20.54 thats the right answer. Those swing traders are the real engine behind the attempt breakout. And those are serious money that can move the market. (keep that in mind for the decision making)
Technically
The other way to look at it from a technical prespective is there were resting large selling orders from 25.feb 2024, and those selling orders that got filled were the last bump in the road for a large move up north.
Also we broke out of the Triangle pattern which could be translated into a bullish opp.
Final thoughts
Now iam considering a long position, based on all the facts discussed above, there is definitly a selliing pressure, can be seen on the weekly, but looking at the daily, and further down on 4h tf, it does look like there is still some buying activity going on. while the selling pressure is fading away and going weaker. Assuming the breakout traders and the swing traders are in big positions, There is a good chance that they will start defending their positions.
Therefore i decided my long position areas, but every one of those needs to be evaluated and confirmed precisely.
Good luck everyone.
Long
