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Long ALCN (read carefully, this might be a very good opp)Uff,thats a tough call to make, but i will make it anyways.
Psychology
- The price has been in consolidation since august 2024.
- Attempt breakout last week, which is interesting. Because this attempt forced all shorts above 24.6 to close their positions. So shorts got hammered and short whales forced them to buy their massive sell orders.
- Then breakout traders turn came up, who also went long anticipating a breakout to the north, and if they bought anything above 24.10 EGP, are now in pain.
- Then swing traders turn comes up. where are those swing traders stops would be? 20.54 thats the right answer. Those swing traders are the real engine behind the attempt breakout. And those are serious money that can move the market. (keep that in mind for the decision making)
Technically
The other way to look at it from a technical prespective is there were resting large selling orders from 25.feb 2024, and those selling orders that got filled were the last bump in the road for a large move up north.
Also we broke out of the Triangle pattern which could be translated into a bullish opp.
Final thoughts
Now iam considering a long position, based on all the facts discussed above, there is definitly a selliing pressure, can be seen on the weekly, but looking at the daily, and further down on 4h tf, it does look like there is still some buying activity going on. while the selling pressure is fading away and going weaker. Assuming the breakout traders and the swing traders are in big positions, There is a good chance that they will start defending their positions.
Therefore i decided my long position areas, but every one of those needs to be evaluated and confirmed precisely.
Good luck everyone.
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TMG Long UpdateHey everyone,
The chart shows bullish flag and held strong support at 47-48 price level. One thing that worries me is the liquidity below 47.5 (in green circle), because the price always makes big moves after a liquidity sweep, which in this case didn't happen yet.
So i expect one of two scenarios that might happen, either the price will go briefly below 47 to sweep the liquidity, create a wick and move to the upside from here or the price will just breaks the trend line, retraces and then continue upwards.
so my advice (do your own research before you take any position) is to DCA into position, meaning, every time the stock drops 1 Egp, buy and increase your buying power, every time the price goes lower (example, buy 1 share at 54, 2 shares at 53, 3 shares at 52 and so on), and for all your buying positions have a stoploss at 45 EGP.
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Buy and hold 6 to 12 months Sugr.CA Technical Analysis, Analysis, Metrics
Delta Sugar Company (CASE:SUGR) is trading at **E£53.08**, with technicals flashing a **strong buy** across most timeframes and a consensus analyst target signaling an **81% upside**. But here’s where savvy traders perk up—a Wyckoff lens suggests we’re at a pivotal stage with accumulation signals stacking up, even as sentiment and fundamentals send mixed signals.
🚦 Wyckoff: Accumulation or Markup?
Wyckoff Analysis (Daily Chart):
Price Action: CASE:SUGR bounced off its 52-week low (E£43.95) and is consolidating just under mid-range resistance (E£53.35–E£54.50).
Volume Clues: Average 3-month volume is modest (E£237,710), and today’s volume (159,890) is typical—not climactic. No sign of panic selling, supporting the case for Phase C (Spring/Test) of accumulation or early markup.
Trend Structure: Multiple moving averages (SMA/EMA 5–200) are in full bullish alignment—classic Wyckoff “markup” phase indicator.
Wyckoff Takeaway:
Delta Sugar is in a late accumulation or early markup phase. With strong technical “buy” signals and resistance just above, a breakout (with volume) could kick off a sustained markup. If it stalls or dips below E£52.20, the spring could turn to a shakeout.
📈 Technicals: Bullish Engines Firing
Momentum: RSI (59.9), MACD (+0.29), and ADX (42.3) all indicate bullish momentum.
Indicators: 8 out of 11 daily indicators are “Buy” with only Ultimate Oscillator shouting “Sell.”
Moving Averages: All daily and weekly SMAs/EMAs trigger “Buy” or “Strong Buy.”
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: E£53.35 (R1), E£54.50 (R3), with annual high at E£68.00.
Support: E£52.20 (S1), E£51.45 (S2), and the 52-week low at E£43.95.
💰 Valuation: Cheap for a Reason?
P/E (LTM): 9.9x—low for the sector, but negative free cash flow yield (-39.1%) and declining revenue (-25.4%) are red flags.
Dividend: A juicy 10.4% yield, boosted by 3 years of increases.
Growth Outlook: Analysts forecast a 41.8% revenue rebound this year, but net income is expected to drop—classic value trap risk.
Risk: Altman Z-score of
Pro+
signals financial strength, but a Piotroski score of 3 and shareholder yield of -23.1% point to some underlying
🧠 WarrenAI’s Take: Big Upside, But Buyer Beware
Wyckoff says: Accumulation/early markup—bulls have the momentum, but need a convincing breakout above E£54.50 (with volume).
Technicals say: Strong buy trend, but short-term overbought risk if price stumbles at resistance.
Fundamentals say: Cheap by P/E, big dividend, but cash burn and negative FCF yield mean risk is real. Next earnings in
Pro+
days could be decisive.
Bottom Line:
Delta Sugar offers a compelling technical breakout scenario with a fat dividend, but don’t ignore the fundamental cracks. Traders should watch for a breakout above E£54.50 with volume. A failure there could mean more sideways grinding in Wyckoff’s “reaccumulation” zone.
The low value of Fair Value is 67 EGP/share and highest is 135 EGP/share good luck 
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