Long
Long
NAPR: At a Critical Decision Point After a Powerful Rally ๐ NAPR: At a Critical Decision Point After a Powerful Rally โ๏ธ
๐๏ธ Fundamental Review:
๐ Business Quality:
NAPR is one of Egypt's leading packaging and industrial materials manufacturers, supplying corrugated cartons, paperboard, and specialized packaging solutions to the FMCG, pharmaceutical, and export sectors. ๐ฆ
โ
Strengths & Catalysts:
The company continues to demonstrate outstanding operational growth, generating annual revenue of 7.58B EGP while maintaining a strong asset-backed balance sheet with a book value of 10.77 EGP per share. ๐
Its exposure to Egypt's expanding manufacturing and export sectors provides an attractive long-term growth story. ๐
โ ๏ธ Risks:
Profitability remains sensitive to global raw material prices, while the stock trades at a premium valuation following its exceptional rally. โ ๏ธ
Heavy institutional ownership also reduces the free float, increasing volatility during periods of low trading activity. ๐
๐ฐ Valuation:
With my estimated fair value around 26.00 EGP, the stock now appears fully valued after its recent advance and offers a less attractive risk-reward profile at current prices. ๐
๐ The Pulse:
NAPR recently recorded the largest single-day liquidity inflow in its trading history. ๐
From a technical perspective, this appears to be a possible exhaustion move following a prolonged rally. โ ๏ธ
The fundamentals also suggest the stock has become fully valued after reaching its annual target. ๐
Heavy selling pressure emerged after the rally, increasing the probability of a corrective pullback. ๐
If the stock fails to close above 28.00 EGP next week, I expect a deeper correction to begin. ๐จ
A break below 26.00 EGP would likely open the door for a retest of the major support at 22.57 EGP. ๐
As long as the rising green trend line remains intact, the overall long-term bullish structure is still valid. ๐ช
A confirmed close above 28.00 EGP would instead increase the probability of another attempt to retest the all-time high. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Fair Value, 26.00 EGP.
The stock is currently trading around my estimated fair value.
๐ Breakout Trigger, 28.00 EGP.
A confirmed close above this level keeps the bullish momentum alive.
๐ฏ First Target, 31.30 EGP.
A retest of the all-time high.
โ ๏ธ First Warning, 28.00 EGP.
Failure to close above this level next week increases the probability of a corrective pullback.
๐จ Second Warning, 26.00 EGP.
Breaking below fair value may trigger a deeper correction.
๐ก๏ธ Major Support, 22.57 EGP.
The primary long-term support zone where buyers may return.
๐ Trend Confirmation, Green Trend Line.
As long as this trend line holds, the long-term uptrend remains intact.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
NAPR remains one of the strongest industrial growth stories on the EGX. ๐
However, both the technical structure and valuation suggest the stock has become stretched after its recent rally. ๐
A confirmed close above 28.00 EGP would support another move toward the all-time high, while failure to do so could trigger a healthy correction toward lower support levels. ๐ค
Patience is preferred until the market confirms its next direction. ๐ก๏ธ
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Long
SWDY Long (Read the description very carefully)ููุง ูุง ุฑุฌุงูุฉ ูุฌู
ุน ููุง ุจูู.
Ok, first of all, go to my profile and search for my TMG trades.
I previously called a major move in TMG from around 50 EGP to 97 EGP, which was nearly a 100% move.
I am referencing that trade because this current setup looks very similar to that TMG call.
I have been watching this stock for a very long time. So when I say this is a serious setup, it means I am genuinely interested.
This time, my stance is simple:
I am aggressively bullish.
Risking 5% to target at least 40% returns.
For every 1,000 EGP traded:
โข Max risk: 50 EGP
โข Target profit: 400 EGP
โข Risk/Reward = 1:8
The math is on our side.
The structure is on our side.
And the stock is considered a blue chip.
So, for this setup, I am choosing to be an aggressive bull.
However, being an aggressive bull does not mean being reckless. It means having strong conviction while still respecting the stop loss, no matter how much I trust the move.
That is the difference between being a reckless aggressive bull and a smart aggressive bull.
My conviction on this setup is extremely high. But regardless of how strong the setup looks, there is only one rule:
STICK TO THE STOP LOSS.
No hope trading.
No emotional holding.
No waiting without a stop loss.
No watching price go against us and hoping it reverses.
If the setup is invalidated, we exit. Simple.
Strong conviction does not mean ignoring risk.
Strong conviction means taking the setup with a clear plan and respecting that plan completely.
Not financial advice. Manage your own risk.
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Short
Short
AMOC: Strong Fundamentals, Breakout Setup in Progress ๐ AMOC: Strong Fundamentals, Breakout Setup in Progress โฝ
๐๏ธ The Fundamentals
AMOC remains one of the strongest value stocks on the EGX, combining solid earnings, a low valuation, conservative leverage, and an attractive dividend yield. ๐ฐ
Despite its quality, the stock still trades at a discount relative to many of its peers. ๐
The main fundamental concern is its relatively low free float, which can reduce liquidity. โ ๏ธ
๐ง The Pulse
AMOC has been consolidating in a sideways channel since May while respecting its key Fibonacci support levels. ๐
Last week produced a strong momentum candle, increasing the probability of a triangle breakout in the coming sessions. ๐
As long as the stock holds above the key support at 8.63, the bullish breakout scenario remains intact. ๐ก๏ธ
The breakout will be confirmed with a move to a new all-time high above 9.23. ๐ฏ
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
Bullish Support: Hold above 8.63. ๐ก๏ธ
Breakout Confirmation: Trade above the all-time high at 9.23. ๐
First Target: Investing.com's fair value around 10.77. ๐ฏ
Final Target: Fibonacci extension around 12.41. ๐
Next Step: If the breakout is confirmed, I will update the targets based on the triangle breakout projection. ๐
โ๏ธ The Verdict
AMOC offers one of the strongest combinations of value and quality on the EGX. ๐
The technical setup is improving, and a confirmed breakout above 9.23 could start the next bullish leg. ๐
Until then, maintaining support above 8.63 keeps the bullish outlook intact. ๐
If you like my insights, follow and boost! ๐๐๐ ๐ $15 TradingView Discount: www.tradingview.com โจ๐ธ๐ค
Long
ELSH: Medium-Term Trend Holds, But Short-Term Risks Are Rising ๐ ELSH: Medium-Term Trend Holds, But Short-Term Risks Are Rising โ ๏ธ
๐๏ธ The Fundamentals
ELSH remains fundamentally attractive over the medium term, but its valuation is becoming relatively expensive compared to its peers. ๐
A period of sideways consolidation would be healthy, allowing the valuation and technical indicators to cool without damaging the long-term trend. โณ
๐ง The Pulse
The medium-term outlook remains bullish, but the latest weekly candle is a warning sign. โ ๏ธ
The stock formed a strong bearish candle, breaking the uptrend line that supported the recent rally. ๐
It also closed near the important Fibonacci level around 13.40 and a Fair Value Gap, making this a key support area. ๐ฏ
If the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the technical outlook would turn negative. ๐ซ
To regain bullish momentum, ELSH needs to reclaim the broken uptrend line with strong buying volume, as last week's trading was dominated by sellers. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
Bullish Recovery: Reclaim the broken uptrend line with strong buying pressure. ๐
Key Support: Fibonacci support around 13.40. ๐ก๏ธ
Stop Loss: A break below 12.21. ๐
First Target: All-time high and Investing.com's fair value around 15.50. ๐ฏ
Second Target: My fair value estimate around 17.15. ๐
Final Target: Fibonacci extension around 20.00. ๐
โ๏ธ The Verdict
The medium-term trend remains constructive, but the short-term technical picture has weakened. โ ๏ธ
As long as key support holds, this can still be viewed as a healthy consolidation rather than a trend reversal. ๐
A break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and 12.21 would invalidate the bullish structure. ๐
If you like my insights, follow and boost! ๐๐๐๐ $15 TradingView Discount: www.tradingview.com โจ๐ธ๐ค
Long
TALM: Bullish Structure Delayed, Not Broken ๐ TALM: Bullish Structure Delayed, Not Broken ๐
๐๏ธ The Fundamentals
TALM remains one of the highest-quality growth companies on the EGX, supported by recurring tuition income, strong profitability, low leverage, and long-term expansion through Badya University. ๐
The stock is not cheap based on current valuation ratios, but investors are paying a premium for its strong earnings visibility and future growth potential. ๐
For long-term investors, TALM remains one of the strongest fundamental stories in the market. ๐๏ธ
๐ง The Pulse
TALM successfully broke out of its triangle pattern and confirmed the breakout before momentum stalled. ๐
The slowdown appears to be driven by regional geopolitical developments, particularly news affecting Egypt, rather than deterioration in the company's fundamentals. โ ๏ธ
As long as the stock holds above the major support at 17.00, I view this as a delay in the bullish rally rather than a trend reversal. ๐ก๏ธ
A weekly close above 18.70 would confirm the next bullish leg and open the door to significantly higher targets. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
Bullish Confirmation: Weekly close above 18.70. ๐
First Target: Triangle breakout target around 20.50. ๐ฏ
Second Target: Fibonacci extension around 23.50. ๐
Final Target: Investing.com's fair value estimate around 28.80. ๐
Stop Loss: Weekly close below the 200-day moving average around 16.45. ๐
โ๏ธ The Verdict
The recent pause looks like a temporary interruption rather than a failed breakout. ๐
Despite trading at premium valuation multiples, TALM's expected earnings growth justifies a higher valuation than many EGX peers. ๐ฐ
I remain constructive on the stock and would consider it a long-term investment, provided it maintains its technical structure above support. ๐
If you like my insights, follow and boost! ๐๐๐ ๐ $15 TradingView Discount: www.tradingview.com โจ๐ธ๐ค
Long
Short
SDTI: Strong Trend, Weak Fundamentals๐ SDTI: Strong Trend, Weak Fundamentals โ ๏ธ
๐๏ธ The Fundamentals
SDTI owns high-quality tourism and resort assets that benefit from Egypt's tourism recovery. ๐จ
However, the latest financials remain weak, with continued net losses, elevated leverage, and expensive valuation multiples. ๐
At current prices, the stock appears to be trading well ahead of its underlying fundamentals. โ ๏ธ
๐ง The Pulse
Technically, SDTI remains in a powerful uptrend and has even broken above the upper boundary of its rising channel. ๐
While the momentum is impressive, I would not chase the stock at these levels. ๐
I would wait for a fundamental catalyst, such as positive news or a return to sustainable profitability, before considering a new position. ๐
โ๏ธ The Verdict
The chart is bullish, but the fundamentals are not. โ๏ธ
The current valuation looks expensive and sentiment appears euphoric. ๐
I would avoid new entries until the company's financial performance begins to justify the move. ๐
If you like my insights, follow and boost! ๐๐๐ ๐ $15 TradingView Discount: www.tradingview.com โจ๐ธ๐ค
Short
Long
Long
SIPC - EGX : Technical Analysis EGX:SIPC Daily Chart
1. Price Action and Key Levels
The Critical Squeeze : The stock is trading inside a massive, multi-month consolidating wedge. It is heavily squeezed between a long-term descending trendline (connecting the 4.90 and 4.30 peaks) and a well-defined ascending support line (labeled as the pivot line).
Current Stand : The closing price of 3.50 EGP sits precisely on the major ascending support line. This is a classic "make or break" pivot area.
Immediate Boundaries :
Resistance : The recent minor peak at 3.80 and the descending trendline (currently intersecting around 3.65โ3.70). A secondary ascending target line is plotted toward 4.20.
Support : The current 3.40โ3.50 zone. A decisive daily close below this ascending trendline would break the long-term structural support, potentially triggering sharp downside volatility.
2. Momentum Indicators
RSI (14): Sitting at 46.93 (below its yellow signal line at 51.44). This indicates a lack of buying momentum and a slight bearish bias as it hovers just below the neutral 50 line.
MACD (12, 26, 9): Both the MACD line (-0.022) and the signal line (-0.009) are compressed right against the zero baseline, with flat histogram bars. This reflects the intense compression and loss of velocity seen in the price actionโthe calm before a potential storm.
3. Risk and Volatility Assessment
Historically, this stock exhibits explosive, low-liquidity vertical surges (like the move to 4.90 in mid-2025 and the sudden spike to 4.30 in early 2026) followed by prolonged, harsh distribution phases.
Because the price is tightly coiled at the apex of the triangle, a breakout or breakdown is imminent. Trading at the apex carries high execution risk because whipsaws (fake-outs) are common before a true directional trend establishes itself.
Are you looking to manage an existing exposure at this 3.50 support level, or are you waiting for a confirmed breakout above the 3.80 resistance before considering an entry? 
Short
