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Vijaya- VCP/ Momentum Continuation SetupSetup: VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) / Momentum Continuation Setup
VIJAYA has delivered a strong rally of approximately 60% from its April lows and is now consolidating near its highs. Instead of giving back a large portion of gains, price has entered a tight consolidation phase with progressively smaller pullbacks, suggesting possible volatility contraction and accumulation before the next directional move.
Technical Observations
Strong Uptrend: Price is trading above the 10 EMA, 20 EMA, 50 EMA and 200 DMA, confirming a healthy bullish structure.
Bullish Moving Average Alignment: The 10 EMA remains above the 20 EMA while the 20 EMA remains above the 50 EMA, reflecting strong trend continuation characteristics.
Potential VCP Formation: Price action is showing signs of volatility contraction with pullbacks becoming progressively tighter.
Healthy Consolidation Near Highs: Rather than undergoing a deep correction after the sharp advance, the stock continues consolidating near the upper range.
Strong Relative Strength: Relative Strength remains elevated, indicating ongoing outperformance versus the broader market.
Supply Zone Ahead: Previous highs around ₹1,390–1,410 may act as near-term resistance and require strong participation for a breakout.
Key Levels
Immediate Support: ₹1,320–1,340
Major Support: ₹1,240–1,260
Breakout Level: ₹1,410
Target 1: ₹1,500
Target 2: ₹1,620
Trade Plan
Conservative traders may consider waiting for a decisive close above ₹1,410 accompanied by strong volume expansion, which would confirm breakout strength and possible continuation of the momentum trend.
Aggressive traders may consider entries near the current consolidation range while maintaining a defined stop below ₹1,320 to preserve favorable risk-to-reward characteristics.
Summary
VIJAYA appears to be transitioning from a strong impulsive move into a possible volatility contraction phase. Tight consolidation near highs, strong relative strength and bullish moving average alignment are constructive signs. A breakout above resistance with participation could potentially trigger the next momentum leg.
Disclaimer: Educational purpose only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Please manage risk appropriately.
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NDRAUTO-Stage 1 Base Breakout / Trend Reversal SetupNDR Auto Components is showing strong structural signs of entering an active Stage 2 markup phase. The stock has successfully completed a large, multi-month bottoming formation after recovering from its deep April lows. With the recent price action breaking above a prominent horizontal accumulation ceiling, the stock is now beginning to print a sequence of clear higher highs and higher lows, signaling a fresh intermediate-term uptrend.
Technical Observations
Base Breakout on Expanding Volume: The price has decisively cleared the major overhead supply and resistance box near ₹860–870. This breakout is supported by a noticeable surge in volume (145.38K), indicating expanding institutional participation at the breakout point.
Moving Average Alignment: The stock is currently trading firmly above all its key short-to-medium term moving averages. These dynamic lines are beginning to curl upward and stack into a bullish configuration, providing strong structural support underneath.
Higher Highs and Higher Lows: Since the major bottom established in early April, the price structure has systematically established higher pivot lows and higher pivot highs, indicating a complete shift in market character from a downtrend to an advancing phase.
Clear Supply Absorption: The lengthy sideways consolidation between May and late June successfully digested historical selling pressure, paving the way for the current clean expansion candle.
Strong Relative Strength: The immediate price expansion out of the base highlights positive underlying relative strength, with the stock leading its immediate auto-components sector peers.
Key Levels
Immediate Support: ₹860
Major Support Zone: ₹800–820
Breakout Level: ₹870
Target 1: ₹990
Target 2: ₹1,070–1,120
Trade Plan
An aggressive approach may consider position building near current market levels (around ₹891) or on any minor, intraday dip toward the immediate breakout retest area of ₹870, with risk strictly defined below the structural support shelf at ₹800. A more conservative approach would look to add on a successful, low-volume pullback that holds and validates the top of the newly formed demand zone near ₹860.
As long as the price continues to sustain above the ₹860 breakout pivot on a closing basis, the newly established bullish structure remains entirely intact.
Summary
NDRAUTO is exhibiting several textbook characteristics of a structural breakout candidate: a complete bottoming base structure, expanding volume on the breakout candle, a transition above key moving averages, and an intact series of higher highs and higher lows. The stock has cleared its primary hurdle and appears well-positioned to continue its structural Stage 2 expansion.
Disclaimer: Educational purpose only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Please manage risk appropriately. 
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Below the Flip, Above the Flip in 1 Picture1 ) Pattern Below the Flip
Resistance / Supply Zone
The dark red horizontal zone — a price level where sellers historically overwhelmed buyers, capping every rally that approached it.
Ascending Triangle Pattern
Formed below this resistance zone — a pattern of rising lows converging toward a flat top, reflecting buyers gradually pushing higher while sellers defend the same ceiling.
Long Leg Push
A strong, extended rally from deep lows all the way up to the resistance zone — but with too much momentum and too much distance traveled. Long leg pushes rarely break out. The move exhausts itself right at the wall.
Short Leg Push
The quieter, more compressed move that followed. Less distance, less noise — and this is the one that actually broke through
Horizontal Breakout
Price finally cleared the flat resistance ceiling of the ascending triangle. Clean in appearance — but statistically, these are the most deceptive breakouts on a chart.
Usual Failure of Horizontal Breakouts
Almost immediately after the breakout, price reversed sharply back below the zone. This is the classic fake out
2 ) Pattern Above the Flip
Price Sustained Above the Flip
After the fake out and the pullback chaos, price climbed back above the resistance zone and this time — held. This is the flip activation. But here's the honest truth: this could only be identified in hindsight.
Flip Zone Activation
The former resistance zone has now converted into support.
Pattern Above the Flip — Symmetrical Triangle
Above the now-activated flip zone, price began forming lower highs and higher lows — a symmetrical triangle, compressing into a tighter and tighter range
Disclaimer: This post is purely educational and observational in nature, based on historical price action. It does not constitute financial advice, a forecast, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security
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daily chart of M&M (Mahindra & Mahindra)The stock has respected a key support zone, established a higher-low structure, and is attempting to resume its uptrend. The next decisive move will depend on whether it can break and sustain above ₹3,200–3,260 with strong volume.
This is the daily chart of M&M (Mahindra & Mahindra) with Fibonacci retracement levels plotted from the recent swing high (~₹3,836) to the swing low (~₹2,902).
Technical Analysis
1. Previous Support Worked Perfectly ✅
The previous swing low around ₹2,900 acted as a strong support.
Price tested this level twice (March and June) and buyers stepped in aggressively.
This confirms demand exists near ₹2,900.
2. Strong Bounce from Support
After the June retest, M&M has formed:
Higher lows
Higher highs
Consecutive bullish candles
This suggests momentum is shifting back to the bulls.
3. Price Reclaimed the 0% Swing Low Level
Current price: ₹3,180
Price has moved above the swing low reference and is approaching the first Fibonacci resistance.
Fibonacci Levels
Level Price Importance
0% ₹3,198 Immediate resistance
38.2% ₹3,258 Strong resistance
50% ₹3,369 Medium-term target
61.8% ₹3,472 Major resistance
Previous High ₹3,836 Long-term target
Volume Analysis
The bounce from ₹2,900 came with higher-than-average volume.
Recent candles show healthy participation rather than weak pullbacks.
This supports the bullish recovery.
Trend Assessment
Short-term: Bullish
Medium-term: Recovery in progress
Long-term: Positive as long as ₹2,900 holds
Trading Plan
Aggressive Entry
On a breakout above ₹3,200–3,220 with above-average volume.
Conservative Entry
Wait for a pullback towards ₹3,100–3,130 and look for bullish reversal candles.
Stop Loss
Below ₹3,050 for short-term trades.
Below ₹2,900 for positional trades.
Targets
₹3,260
₹3,370
₹3,470
₹3,836 (if broader market remains supportive) 
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Technical Analysis: SAIL (NSE) — Weekly TimeframeExecutive Summary
The weekly chart of SAIL reveals a highly structured, long-term ascending channel pattern that has been respecting major historical boundaries. However, the stock is currently entering a critical make-or-break phase after facing a stiff rejection at its multi-year major resistance zone.
Key Technical Observations
1. Multi-Year Historical Resistance (The Double Top Barrier)
The Level: ₹201.67 – ₹209.70
Context: The upper red horizontal line represents a massive multi-year peak dating all the way back to late 2007 / early 2008.
Recent Price Action: As seen in the file 50bd08b6-a7f4-4009-8c1b-dcb1e333f6b7, the recent rally extended all the way up to test this historical high (reaching a peak of ₹209.70) before experiencing a sharp profit-booking and rejection. This confirms that long-term supply is heavily sitting in this ₹200+ zone.
2. Ascending Parallel Channel Dynamics
Since late 2018/2019, SAIL has been moving inside a well-defined blue ascending parallel channel.
The recent rejection at the ₹209.70 high happened precisely where the upper boundary of this ascending channel intersected with the historical horizontal resistance. This structural confluence created a high-probability exhaustion point for buyers.
3. Recent Breakdown of Immediate Support
Immediate Level: ₹171.84
Current Situation: The chart highlights a secondary horizontal support/resistance line at ₹171.84. The current weekly candle has closed/is trading below this level at ₹167.65.
This minor breakdown indicates that the short-term momentum has shifted to the bears, opening up room for further correction within the broader upward channel.
Market Outlook & Forward Scenarios
📉 Bearish / Correction Scenario (Higher Probability in Short Term)
As long as the price remains sustained below ₹171.84, the corrective phase is likely to extend.
Downside Targets: The stock could seek support at the median line of the blue ascending channel (roughly around the ₹125 – ₹135 zone), which aligns with previous structural swing highs from late 2024.
The ultimate structural support remains at the bottom of the channel, far lower, though immediate intermediate supports should cushion the fall first.
📈 Bullish / Trend Continuation Scenario
For the long-term bullish trend to resume, buyers need to step in and reclaim the intermediate levels.
Trigger: A strong weekly close back above ₹171.84 is the first requirement to stabilize the asset.
Ultimate Target: A structural, explosive breakout will only trigger if SAIL can decisively clear the ₹210 barrier on a closing basis. If it manages to break out of both the horizontal resistance and the ascending channel, it will enter an open-sky blue territory.
Conclusion : SAIL is currently undergoing a healthy and expected technical correction after testing a monumental 18-year-old resistance ceiling. Positional traders should look for stabilization near the channel's interior support structures rather than catching a falling knife right at the immediate breakdown point.
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