AUDUSD price breakes 0.8686 then will hit 0.8703 and price breakBased on your parameters and the current market data as of Sunday, April 26, 2026, here is a technical analysis of the AUDUSD pair.
Currently, the price is hovering around 0.7145, consolidating after a period of volatility driven by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and shifting expectations for RBA and Fed interest rates.
Technical Analysis & Scenarios
The levels you’ve identified align closely with the current "breakout vs. correction" setup observed on the H4 and Daily charts.
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (The 0.7193 Level)
Trigger: A clean break and consolidation (H4 close) above 0.7193.
Target: 0.7221 (Recent multi-year high).
Analysis: This level acted as a major rejection point in mid-April. Breaking above it would confirm that the primary uptrend has resumed.
Momentum: The RSI is currently near 60, suggesting there is still "room to run" before reaching overbought conditions (70+).
Catalyst: Stronger-than-expected Australian Trimmed Mean CPI data (due this Wednesday) could provide the fundamental "fuel" for this move.
Scenario 2: Bearish Correction (The 0.7110 Level)
Trigger: Price breaks and sustains below 0.7110.
Target: 0.7080 (20-day EMA and key psychological support).
Analysis: 0.7110 has served as a 10-day low and immediate support. If this fails, the pair is likely to test the 0.7080 region, which is reinforced by the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Downside Risk: If 0.7080 fails to hold, the next major structural support sits much lower, around 0.6945.
Key Market Drivers for the Week
Australian Inflation: The RBA is watching trimmed mean inflation closely. If it remains high, a May rate hike becomes almost certain, supporting the AUD.
FOMC & US Data: The Federal Reserve's rate decision and US GDP/PCE data this week will determine the Greenback's strength. A hawkish Fed could trap the AUD below your 0.7193 resistance.
Risk Sentiment: As a "risk-on" currency, AUD remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Any further escalation in the Middle East would likely trigger the bearish scenario toward 0.7080.
AUDUSD_D📊 AUDUSD – Daily Elliott Wave Analysis
On the daily timeframe, based on Elliott Wave Theory, the overall structure suggests that the market is still developing a larger Wave 5 to the upside, supported by the strength of buyers.
The current Wave 5 appears to be subdividing into five smaller waves, and at the moment, price is likely forming Wave 4 within the larger Wave 5.
🔄 Correction Scenario (Wave 4):
The expected corrective zone for Wave 4 is between 0.70573 – 0.70383.
⚠️ However, considering a regular bullish divergence on the 4-hour timeframe, there is a possibility that price may not fully reach this correction zone and could resume its upward movement earlier.
🚀 Bullish Target (Wave 5 Completion):
The projected target zone for the completion of the larger Wave 5 is 0.72826 – 0.72961.
❌ Invalidation Level:
A move below 0.69815 would invalidate this wave count and the bullish outlook.
🌍 Fundamental Perspective (Aligned with Bullish View)
From a fundamental perspective, several factors may support further upside in AUD/USD:
* Commodity Strength: The Australian dollar is closely tied to commodity exports; rising commodity prices can support AUD.
* Monetary Policy Outlook: If the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a relatively hawkish stance compared to the Federal Reserve, this could favor AUD strength.
* Risk Sentiment: A positive global risk environment tends to benefit risk-sensitive currencies like AUD.
That said, any unexpected strengthening of the US dollar or shifts toward risk aversion could delay or weaken the bullish scenario.
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