EURTHB Eyes Lagarde’s SpeechYesterday Recap
Yesterday, EURTHB closed at 38.27 in the Thai market. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation increased from the previous month but came in slightly below expectations, while Core CPI declined, reflecting easing underlying inflationary pressures.
Fundamental 18/9/26
Key Events Today | Forecast | Previous
EU: 15:00 — Current Account | 30.7B | 35.1B
EU: 16:00 — Construction Production MoM | - | -1.34%
EU: 17:30 — ECB President Lagarde Speaks | - | -
Today, the key factor for EUR is the Eurozone Current Account, forecast at 30.7B, down from the previous 35.1B. A weaker-than-expected result could indicate softer external-sector conditions and put pressure on EUR, while a better-than-expected result could support EUR.
For Construction Production MoM, the market will monitor whether the construction sector shows signs of recovery. Meanwhile, Lagarde’s speech will be an important focus for EUR, as markets will look for signals regarding the inflation outlook and the ECB’s monetary policy direction.
Overall, EURTHB is expected to move within a range, with the main focus on Lagarde’s comments and the ECB’s monetary policy outlook.
Technical Analysis — EURTHB 1H
Bias: Sideway
View: The price remains weak but is showing potential for a rebound from the 38.15–38.12 zone. RSI at 27.44 is in the Oversold zone, indicating that selling pressure may have become excessive. Meanwhile, MACD remains negative but is starting to flatten, suggesting that selling pressure may be slowing. If the price holds above 38.15, it may rebound toward 38.24, which is an FVG. If the price breaks above the FVG, it may test the 38.28 resistance level. However, if the price breaks below 38.15, further downside toward the 38.12 support level is possible.
Resistance: 38.24 / 38.28
Support: 38.15 / 38.12
Target: 38.24 → 38.28
Cut Loss: 38.11 USDCAD – Buyers Still Have the AdvantageUSDCAD continues to hold a relatively strong structure. After the sharp move toward 1.4000, price has avoided a deeper selloff and is now consolidating just above the breakout area. From my perspective, buyers still have the upper hand.
From a macro perspective, the U.S. dollar continues to benefit from the Fed’s hawkish stance and the U.S.–Canada yield differential , while the Canadian dollar remains near multi-week lows. At the same time, weaker oil prices are adding further pressure on the CAD . The Bank of Canada remains cautious about inflation, which could provide some support for the currency, but so far it has not been enough to reverse the USD’s advantage.
On the H1 chart, USDCAD remains inside an ascending channel and continues to form higher highs and higher lows. The 1.3955–1.3965 area previously acted as resistance, but after the breakout it is now becoming an important support zone. With price currently trading around 1.3980, a pullback toward this area would still fit the broader bullish structure.
My preferred scenario is for buyers to continue defending the breakout area and push USDCAD into another leg higher . If the structure holds, 1.4000 is the first upside target, while a break above this level could open the way toward 1.4050.
As long as the 1.3955–1.3965 area remains intact, bullish continuation remains my primary scenario. EURUSD | Bearish Continuation & Downside Potential SetupEURUSD | Bearish Continuation & Downside Potential Setup
Fundamental View
EURUSD is facing renewed selling pressure as markets increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at this week’s September 15–16 meeting. A Reuters poll showed 85% of economists expecting a 25-basis-point hike, while market pricing has moved even higher.
At the same time, rising U.S. Treasury yields are supporting the U.S. dollar and widening the yield advantage in favor of the USD. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved toward the 5% area, adding pressure to EURUSD.
Technical View
EURUSD is showing bearish pressure as sellers attempt to maintain control below the 1.15707 resistance zone.
As long as price remains below 1.15707, the bearish structure remains in focus. A sustained break below 1.15200 support could increase downside momentum and expose the 1.14595 target area.
However, the Fed decision and forward guidance could create significant volatility, so confirmation around the key levels remains important.
SMC View
From an SMC perspective, the current structure suggests sellers are defending the premium/resistance area around 1.15707.
A failure to reclaim this zone could keep downside liquidity below 1.15200 as the next area of interest. If 1.15200 is decisively broken, the move toward 1.14595 would represent a deeper liquidity expansion.
The 1.16000 area remains the key invalidation level for this bearish thesis.
This Move Is Supported By
• Rising expectations for a Fed rate hike
• Higher U.S. Treasury yields
• Renewed USD strength
• Wider U.S.–Eurozone yield differentials
• Bearish price structure below 1.15707
• Potential downside liquidity below 1.15200
Trading Scenario
Bearish Scenario:
If EURUSD continues to reject 1.15707 and sellers regain control below 1.15200, the bearish continuation scenario remains in focus.
A confirmed breakdown below 1.15200 could open the path toward 1.14595.
Bullish Invalidation Scenario:
A sustained move above 1.15707 would weaken the immediate bearish setup. A decisive break and hold above 1.16000 would invalidate the bearish thesis and require a reassessment of the setup.
Key Levels
Resistance: 1.15707
Support: 1.15200
Bearish Target: 1.14595
Invalidation: 1.16000
Professional Insights
The 1.15707–1.16000 area is the key decision zone for this setup. As long as EURUSD remains below this region, the bearish scenario remains technically valid.
For stronger confirmation, I would look for a rejection from resistance followed by a clean break of 1.15200. A simple intraday spike below support should not automatically be treated as a confirmed breakdown; a sustained move or retest would provide stronger confirmation.
Risk Management
Avoid treating the resistance or support levels as guaranteed reversal points. Major central-bank events can produce sharp liquidity sweeps and false breakouts.
The 1.16000 level is the key invalidation for this bearish setup. Position sizing should remain consistent with your individual risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, particularly around major central-bank decisions. Always conduct your own research and apply appropriate risk management. AUDUSD — Bullish Flag Breakout SetupAfter months of bearish pressure that dominated the first half of the year, AUDUSD has made a remarkable recovery. Since mid-July, the pair has been carving out a textbook bullish structure — printing a clean series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows — a classic sign that buyers are firmly in control and the market is in a healthy Advancing Phase.
The rally was strong and impulsive, with price gaining significant ground in a relatively short period of time. This kind of momentum tells us that there is genuine buying interest behind this move — not just a temporary bounce.
The Flag Formation
After such a strong impulse move pushing price all the way up to the 0.7238 resistance zone, it was only natural for the market to pause and consolidate. This is exactly what happened. Price pulled back in an orderly and controlled manner — not a sharp reversal, not panic selling — just a healthy cooldown. This consolidation formed a Bullish Flag pattern, which is one of the most reliable continuation patterns in technical analysis.
The flag has been respecting its boundaries cleanly. Price is compressing, momentum is being reset, and the market appears to be coiling up for the next move. This is exactly the kind of price action that precedes a strong breakout.
What We Are Looking For
A clean breakout and close above the upper boundary of the flag at 0.72388 would confirm that the consolidation phase is over and the trend is ready to resume. Once buyers take control above that level, the path toward 0.74126 opens up — a significant supply zone and our target for this setup.
The stop loss is placed at 0.70751, below the flag structure and recent swing low — giving the trade enough room to breathe while keeping risk defined.
Levels to Watch:
🔵 Buy Stop: 0.72388 (breakout confirmation)
🔴 Stop Loss: 0.70751 (below flag & swing low)
🟢 Take Profit: 0.74126 (supply zone)
As always, patience is key. We do not chase — we wait for the market to come to our level and confirm before entering.
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan.
