gbpusd: the bullish comeback — from demand to new highsGBPUSD 4H — Bullish SMC Analysis 🎯
Current Price: ~1.33708
Timeframe: 4H
Market Bias: Potential bullish recovery from the current demand area, subject to confirmation.
🟢 1. Market Structure
GBPUSD has experienced a significant bearish move from the 1.3650–1.3670 region toward the 1.3330 area.
The chart shows previous bullish and bearish swings, with price currently attempting to recover from the lower support region. A confirmed bullish Break of Structure (BOS) would provide stronger evidence of a potential trend shift.
🟢 2. Key Demand & Support Zone
Support Area: 1.3330–1.3350
This region is near the recent low and the marked gray support zone.
Price has reacted upward from this area.
Buyers may attempt to defend the zone.
A sustained break below support would weaken the bullish setup.
Important: Support holding alone does not confirm a bullish reversal.
📈 3. Bullish Trade Projection
The chart displays a bullish projection with an entry around 1.3370 and a stop-loss region near 1.3295.
The projected upside levels are:
Target
Price
TP1
1.3450
TP2
1.3568
TP3
1.3673
These are the levels shown or approximated from the chart's projected targets, not guaranteed outcomes.
🎯 4. Potential Resistance Levels
Resistance 1: 1.3450–1.3470
An initial reaction area where price may encounter selling pressure.
Resistance 2: 1.3560–1.3580
A significant intermediate level near the chart's projected second target.
Major Resistance: 1.3650–1.3675
This region aligns with the previous swing-high area and the upper projected target. It may act as a major supply or resistance zone.
🧠 5. SMC Analysis — BOS, CHoCH & FVG
BOS (Break of Structure): The chart contains prior structural swings, but a fresh bullish BOS is not clearly confirmed in the current price area.
CHoCH (Change of Character): A bullish CHoCH would require a meaningful break of a relevant lower-timeframe swing high, followed by supporting price action.
FVG (Fair Value Gap): The chart does not clearly label all FVG boundaries. Exact FVG identification requires examining the individual candle formations, so specific zones should be verified before using them for entries.
📊 6. Supertrend Confirmation
The displayed Supertrend is approximately 1.34389, above the current price near 1.33708.
This indicates that the current Supertrend reading has not yet confirmed a bullish trend. Reclaiming the indicator and establishing higher highs could strengthen the bullish recovery case.
🚀 7. Bullish Scenario
Support Holds → Bullish CHoCH → BOS Confirmation → Upside Continuation
If price defends the 1.3330–1.3350 region and breaks above nearby swing resistance, the projected upside path could be:
1.3450 → 1.3568 → 1.3673
Each level should be monitored for rejection, consolidation, or confirmed breakout.
🔴 8. Bearish Invalidation
A sustained breakdown below the 1.3330–1.3350 support region would weaken the bullish setup.
The marked stop-loss region is near 1.3295, but the appropriate invalidation level depends on your trade plan and risk tolerance.
📌 Final GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD is attempting a recovery after a strong decline. The key area to monitor is 1.3330–1.3350, while the displayed bullish projection targets 1.3450, 1.3568, and 1.3673.
🟢 Support: 1.3330–1.3350
🎯 TP1: 1.3450
🎯 TP2: 1.3568
🎯 TP3: 1.3673
🔴 Major Resistance: 1.3650–1.3675
📊 Supertrend: ~1.34389 USD/JPY 4H — PROFESSIONAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS# 📊 USD/JPY 4H — PROFESSIONAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
### 🔴 Bearish Breakout → Liquidity Sweep → Potential Reversal Setup
> **Chart:** USD/JPY — 4H
> **Current price shown:** ~154.362
> **Major resistance:** 163.968
> **Major lower support:** 152.299
> **Structure:** Bullish channel → rejection → bearish displacement → support breakdown
⚠️ **Educational technical analysis only — not financial advice.** The levels below are based specifically on the chart you provided, not on live order-flow or fundamental data.
---
## 🧭 1. OVERALL MARKET STRUCTURE
The chart shows a very important transition in market structure.
Initially, USD/JPY was trading inside a **bullish channel**, producing:
* Higher highs 📈
* Higher lows 📈
* Controlled pullbacks
* Strong upward momentum
The first major bullish channel eventually pushed price toward the **163.968 resistance**.
Price then failed to continue higher and began forming a significant reversal structure.
### 🔴 The critical event
The most important move on the chart is the **large bearish displacement from the 160–161 area**.
This wasn't simply a normal pullback.
The market aggressively moved lower, breaking the previous bullish structure and subsequently creating several areas of **imbalance/FVG**.
That changes the character of the market from:
> 🟢 **Buy-the-dip bullish structure**
to:
> 🔴 **Sell-the-rally / wait-for-reversal structure**
at least until price proves otherwise.
---
# 🔥 2. MAJOR RESISTANCE — 163.968
### 🟥 163.968 = Major Resistance
This is the highest clearly marked horizontal resistance on your chart.
Price previously approached this region while trading inside the larger bullish channel.
The failure around this area tells us there was substantial selling pressure.
### What would happen if price eventually returns there?
A move back toward **163.968** would require a substantial recovery.
For now, this level is much more of a **macro resistance / long-term upside objective** than an immediate target.
📌 **Trading interpretation:**
Above 163.968:
> 🟢 Major bullish continuation
Below 163.968:
> ⚠️ Resistance remains intact.
---
# 🟩 3. THE 160.00–160.50 SUPPLY / REJECTION ZONE
This is arguably one of the most important areas on your entire chart.
You have marked a green zone around:
### 🟩 160.00–160.50
Price returned to this area after the initial bearish displacement.
Notice what happened:
1. Price recovered 📈
2. Entered the previous support/resistance area
3. Reached the descending trendline
4. Failed to break through
5. Sellers entered aggressively
6. Price experienced another major bearish move 🔻
This creates a classic:
### 🔴 Resistance + Trendline Confluence
You have **multiple technical reasons** for sellers to defend this region:
* Previous structural area
* Horizontal zone
* Descending trendline
* Previous rejection
* Supply/liquidity
* Failed bullish channel
Therefore:
> **160.00–160.50 is the key "line in the sand" for the medium-term bearish structure.**
---
# 📉 4. BEARISH CHANNEL / DESCENDING TRENDLINE
The descending trendline beginning near the July/August high is extremely important.
Price eventually came back toward this descending trendline around 160.
The rejection from that trendline was followed by an aggressive selloff.
### This creates a textbook confluence:
**Horizontal resistance + descending trendline + previous structure**
= 🔴 Strong rejection zone.
As long as price remains below this descending trendline, the larger recovery should be treated cautiously.
A clean 4H breakout **above the descending trendline**, followed by a successful retest, would be the first meaningful indication that sellers are losing control.
---
# 🟦 5. ORDER BLOCK — ~158.6–159.0
Your chart identifies an:
### 🟦 ORDER BLOCK
approximately around **158.6–159.0**.
This area becomes important because it sits directly below the 160 resistance.
After a large bearish displacement, price frequently attempts to retrace into the origin/decision area of the move.
Therefore, if USD/JPY begins recovering:
### 🎯 First important reaction zone:
**158.6–159.0**
This should be monitored for rejection.
---
# 🟦 6. FIRST FVG — ~157.8–158.4
The first imbalance/FVG is another important area.
A strong impulsive bearish candle sequence can leave inefficient price action behind.
Markets sometimes retrace into these areas before continuing in the original direction.
Therefore:
### 🟦 157.8–158.4 = First FVG reaction zone
If price rallies from current levels, this becomes an important place to watch.
Possible behavior:
**154 → 156 → 157.8/158.4 → rejection**
would be a logical bearish-retracement scenario.
---
# 🟦 7. SECOND FVG — ~156.8–157.6
This is the lower FVG shown on your chart.
It is especially interesting because it is closer to current price than the order block.
So if price begins recovering from the current support area:
### Potential retracement sequence:
**154.3**
⬆️
**155.0**
⬆️
**156.0**
⬆️
🟦 **156.8–157.6 FVG**
⬆️
🟦 **157.8–158.4 FVG**
⬆️
🟦 **158.6–159.0 Order Block**
⬆️
🟩 **160.0–160.5 Resistance**
This gives you a very clean framework for evaluating a potential recovery.
---
# 🟢 8. MAJOR SUPPORT — 154.7–155.3
This is the most important immediate support zone shown on the chart.
You have marked:
### 🟩 SUPPORT
approximately **154.7–155.3**
However, there is an important development:
### ⚠️ PRICE HAS ALREADY BROKEN BELOW THIS SUPPORT.
Current chart price is around:
### 🔴 154.362
which places price below the marked support zone.
This is significant.
The market has therefore moved from:
🟢 **Support holding**
to:
🔴 **Potential support breakdown**
---
# 🩸 9. WHAT DOES THE SUPPORT BREAK MEAN?
A support break does **not automatically mean price will continue straight down.**
There are two possibilities.
### Scenario A — Genuine bearish breakdown 🔴
Price remains below 154.7–155.3.
Then:
* Previous support becomes resistance
* Sellers maintain control
* Price searches for liquidity below
* 152.299 becomes increasingly important
This would favor continued downside.
---
### Scenario B — Liquidity sweep / false breakdown 🟢
Price temporarily breaks below 154.7–155.3.
Then:
1. Takes sell-side liquidity
2. Drops toward 153–152.3
3. Reclaims 154.7–155.3
4. Starts recovering
5. Moves toward the FVGs
This is essentially the idea suggested by the **black projected path on your chart**.
And this is a very interesting scenario.
---
# 🧲 10. LOWER SUPPORT — 152.299
### 🟩 152.299 = Major Lower Support
This is the most important downside reference on the chart.
If price continues lower from 154.36, the next major structural area shown is:
### 🎯 152.299
This area can potentially act as a **liquidity target**.
The projected path on your chart appears to anticipate something similar to:
**154.36**
⬇️
**153.x**
⬇️
🟩 **152.3 area**
⬆️
Recovery
⬆️
155+
⬆️
156–157
⬆️
157.5–158.0+
That is essentially a:
### 🧲 Liquidity Sweep → Reclaim → Recovery
thesis.
---
# 🧠 11. THE MOST INTERESTING SETUP ON THIS CHART
The chart appears to be describing a potential **sell-side liquidity sweep**.
Think of it this way:
Retail traders may see:
> "Support broke! 🔴 SELL!"
But if price breaks support and then quickly reclaims it, the breakdown could become a liquidity trap.
The important distinction is:
### ❌ Break and remain below support
= bearish continuation
### ✅ Break → sweep → reclaim
= potential bullish reversal
This is why the **152.299 level is extremely important.**
---
# 🟢 12. BULLISH REVERSAL SCENARIO
For the bullish scenario to become technically stronger, I would want to see several confirmations rather than simply buying because price reached support.
### Step 1 — Liquidity sweep
Price moves below the 154.7–155.3 support.
Potentially:
**154 → 153 → 152.3**
🔻
### Step 2 — Rejection
Price produces:
* Long lower wick
* Strong bullish candle
* Bullish engulfing
* 4H rejection
* Momentum shift
🟢
### Step 3 — Reclaim
Price gets back above approximately:
### 154.7–155.3
This is critical.
The former support needs to become support again.
### Step 4 — Higher low
Price should ideally create a higher low after reclaiming the zone.
### Step 5 — Expansion upward
Then the recovery targets become:
🎯 **156.8–157.6**
🎯 **157.8–158.4**
🎯 **158.6–159.0**
🎯 **160.0–160.5**
---
# 🚀 13. BULLISH TARGET ROADMAP
If the 152.3–154.7 area produces a genuine reversal, I would organize the upside levels like this:
| Target | Area | Importance |
| ------ | ----------: | ------------------- |
| 🎯 TP1 | 156.0 | Short-term recovery |
| 🎯 TP2 | 156.8–157.6 | FVG |
| 🎯 TP3 | 157.8–158.4 | FVG |
| 🎯 TP4 | 158.6–159.0 | Order Block |
| 🎯 TP5 | 160.0–160.5 | Major resistance |
| 🚀 TP6 | 163.968 | Macro resistance |
The higher price travels, the more important the reaction becomes.
---
# 🔴 14. BEARISH CONTINUATION SCENARIO
Now let's consider the opposite.
If price remains below the 154.7–155.3 support and does **not** reclaim it, the bullish recovery thesis becomes weaker.
The sequence would then be:
**Support breakdown**
⬇️
**Retest**
⬇️
**Rejection**
⬇️
**Lower low**
⬇️
🎯 **152.299**
This would indicate that the market is respecting the bearish structure.
---
# ⚠️ 15. VERY IMPORTANT — DON'T CONFUSE A BOUNCE WITH A TREND REVERSAL
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is:
> "Price bounced from support, therefore trend changed."
Not necessarily.
A bounce from 152.3 or 154.0 could simply be a **bear-market retracement**.
For a genuine bullish reversal, we want structural evidence.
### Stronger bullish evidence:
🟢 Reclaim 154.7–155.3
🟢 Higher low
🟢 Break 156+
🟢 Recover 157.6
🟢 Break 158.4
🟢 Reclaim 158.6–159.0
🟢 Break descending trendline
🟢 Break 160.0–160.5
The closer price gets to 160.5, the more convincing the reversal becomes.
---
# 📉 16. WHAT WOULD INVALIDATE THE BULLISH IDEA?
The biggest invalidation is:
### 🔴 Sustained acceptance below 152.299
If price breaks below 152.299 with strong 4H closes and fails to reclaim it, the projected bullish recovery path becomes considerably weaker.
In that case, you would not want to blindly buy simply because price is "cheap."
A broken major support can become the beginning of another bearish leg.
---
# 🎯 17. HIGH-PROBABILITY WAY TO APPROACH THE CHART
Rather than predicting:
> "USD/JPY WILL GO UP."
or
> "USD/JPY WILL GO DOWN."
A professional approach is to create **conditional scenarios**.
### 🟢 LONG SCENARIO
Wait for:
**152.3–154.7 liquidity sweep**
⬇️
Bullish rejection
⬇️
4H reclaim
⬇️
Higher low
⬇️
Momentum confirmation
🎯 Targets:
**156.8 → 157.6 → 158.4 → 159 → 160**
---
### 🔴 SHORT SCENARIO
Wait for either:
**154.7–155.3 retest + rejection**
OR
**156.8–158.4 retracement + bearish rejection**
OR
**158.6–159.0 order block rejection**
OR
**160.0–160.5 major resistance rejection**
Then bearish continuation becomes more attractive.
🎯 Downside reference:
**154.3 → 153 → 152.3**
---
# 🧩 18. CONFLUENCE MAP
### 🔴 SELLER ZONES
**160.0–160.5**
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
**158.6–159.0**
⭐⭐⭐⭐
**157.8–158.4**
⭐⭐⭐⭐
**156.8–157.6**
⭐⭐⭐
These areas become particularly interesting if price rallies into them and produces bearish confirmation.
---
### 🟢 BUYER ZONES
**154.7–155.3**
⭐⭐⭐
**152.299**
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
But remember:
A level is not automatically a buy simply because it is marked "support."
We need to see **price reaction + confirmation.**
---
# 🧠 19. MARKET PSYCHOLOGY
The chart has a very clear psychological sequence.
### Phase 1 🟢
Traders become bullish inside the rising channel.
### Phase 2 🚀
Price reaches the upper region.
### Phase 3 ⚠️
Momentum begins failing.
### Phase 4 🔴
Major bearish displacement occurs.
### Phase 5 😱
Support breaks and sellers chase the move.
### Phase 6 🧲
Liquidity potentially accumulates below support.
### Phase 7 ❓
Market decides whether the breakdown is genuine or a trap.
This is why the **152.299 area is particularly interesting.**
---
# 📌 20. PROFESSIONAL MARKET BIAS
Based strictly on the structure visible in your chart:
### 🟥 SHORT-TERM BIAS:
**Bearish**
Because price has broken below the marked 154.7–155.3 support.
### 🟨 INTERMEDIATE BIAS:
**Bearish until reclaim**
The market needs to recover important resistance zones before the bullish case becomes dominant.
### 🟢 REVERSAL POSSIBILITY:
**Yes — but confirmation is required.**
The projected bullish path on your chart makes sense as a **liquidity-sweep/recovery scenario**, particularly if 152.3 holds and price reclaims 154.7–155.3.
---
# 🔥 21. MY KEY LEVELS FROM YOUR CHART
### 🟥 MAJOR RESISTANCE
**163.968**
### 🟥 MAJOR SUPPLY
**160.00–160.50**
### 🟦 ORDER BLOCK
**158.6–159.0**
### 🟦 FVG #1
**157.8–158.4**
### 🟦 FVG #2
**156.8–157.6**
### 🟩 BROKEN SUPPORT / RECLAIM LEVEL
**154.7–155.3**
### 🟩 MAJOR LOWER SUPPORT
**152.299**
---
# 🏁 FINAL TECHNICAL VERDICT
## 🔴 CURRENTLY: BEARISH STRUCTURE
USD/JPY has experienced a significant bearish displacement after failing around the **160–160.5 resistance and descending trendline**.
The previous bullish channel has effectively lost its immediate validity.
The break beneath **154.7–155.3** is currently bearish.
However...
### 🧲 152.299 is the critical decision zone.
If price sweeps below the current support structure and then **reclaims 154.7–155.3**, the chart's projected recovery could become technically interesting.
The potential recovery path would then be:
> 🟢 **152.3 liquidity sweep**
> ⬆️ **154.7–155.3 reclaim**
> ⬆️ **156.8–157.6 FVG**
> ⬆️ **157.8–158.4 FVG**
> ⬆️ **158.6–159.0 Order Block**
> ⬆️ **160.0–160.5 major resistance**
> 🚀 **163.968 macro resistance**
But if price instead:
> 🔴 **Breaks 152.299 → closes below → fails to reclaim**
then the bullish recovery thesis shown by the black projection should be considered **invalid/weak**, and the bearish trend would remain dominant.
### ⭐ THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE HERE:
**Don't trade the level — trade the reaction at the level.**
A support zone gives you a location.
A candle reaction gives you information.
A structure break gives you confirmation.
A retest gives you a potential entry framework. 🎯
**Current chart bias: 🔴 Bearish below 155.3 | 🟢 Recovery potential on confirmed reclaim | 🚨 152.299 = major decision level.**
GBPUSD – Sellers Are Still Setting the PaceGBPUSD is sending a fairly clear message: the recovery attempts are still not strong enough to change the broader direction . Price is trading around 1.3370 after a sharp decline, while pressure from the U.S. dollar and the 12H structure keeps my short-term view tilted to the downside.
From a macro perspective, the U.S. dollar still holds the advantage after the Fed maintained a hawkish policy stance . In the UK, the Bank of England also remains cautious about persistent inflation risks , but that has not yet generated enough demand to produce a meaningful recovery in sterling. GBP may still see temporary rebounds, but there is currently no clear catalyst strong enough to reverse the pressure on GBPUSD.
On the 12H chart, the bearish structure remains well defined, with a sequence of lower highs developing beneath the descending trendline. Following the latest selloff, price is attempting a modest recovery toward 1.3400, but it remains below the trendline and Ichimoku structure. If buyers fail to regain control here, the 1.3245–1.3290 area becomes the next zone to watch.
My preferred scenario is that the current recovery gives sellers another opportunity to step back in rather than marking the beginning of a new bullish trend. As long as GBPUSD remains capped beneath the resistance structure above, bearish continuation remains my primary scenario , with the 1.3250 area as the next key downside target. EURAUD: Bullish Push to 1.639?FX:EURAUD is eyeing a bullish continuation on the 4-hour chart , with price approaching a key support zone after recent pullback, converging with a potential entry area that could ignite further upside momentum toward the higher resistance zone near the 0.786 Fibonacci level if buyers defend amid volatility. This setup suggests a solid rally opportunity with 1:3 risk-reward .🔥
Entry between 1.615–1.618 (entry from current price with proper risk management is recommended). T arget at 1.639 . Set a stop loss at a daily close below 1.611 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of 1:3 . Monitor for confirmation via a bullish candle close above entry with rising volume.🌟
Fundamentally , EURAUD is trading around 1.621 in early September 2026.
For the Euro, the most important release this week (1–4 September) is the Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (August) on Tuesday, September 1 — a key inflation reading that can influence ECB policy expectations.
For the Australian Dollar, a major event is the Australia GDP (Q2) on Wednesday, September 2, which will provide critical insight into the strength of the Australian economy. 💡
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry (Long):
1.615 – 1.618
(Entry from current price is acceptable with proper position sizing and strict risk management.)
🎯 Target:
1.639
❌ Stop Loss:
Daily candle close below 1.611
📈 Risk-to-Reward:
1:3
💡 Will buyers defend 1.615–1.618 and push EURAUD toward 1.639, or will stronger Australian growth invalidate the bullish setup? 👇
Long
