GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Downside Move in Focus📉 GBPUSD Daily Chart – Bearish Trading Perspective
GBPUSD is showing a bearish overall structure on the daily timeframe. Price remains beneath a descending trendline and has recently rejected from an important supply/resistance area, suggesting sellers are still defending higher prices. The latest move lower from the 1.3570 region reinforces the idea that rallies may continue to be sold unless price can reclaim and hold above the marked red zone. 🔻
The primary resistance area sits around 1.3550–1.3575, with a wider supply zone extending roughly into 1.3600–1.3700. This is the key bearish invalidation area: a strong daily close above it, especially above the descending trendline, would weaken the current short bias and could open the door for a move toward the prior highs.
🛡️ Support zones to watch
1.3340–1.3360: Near-term support and an important reaction area. Price may pause or produce a bounce here, but a clean daily break below it would favour further downside.
1.3180–1.3220: Main blue demand/support zone. This is the most important downside area on the chart and may attract buyers or profit-taking from short positions.
1.3139: First major bearish target, aligned with the marked strong-low area.
1.3030–1.3100: Deeper support zone and extended target if bearish momentum accelerates. 🎯
📌 Trade plan idea
The preferred approach is to remain patient and look for bearish confirmation rather than chasing price after a large move. Possible short setups could develop if price retraces into 1.3430–1.3500 and shows rejection, or if it revisits the stronger 1.3550–1.3575 red supply zone with bearish price action.
A second approach is a breakdown trade: wait for a convincing daily close below 1.3340, then look for a retest of that level as resistance before considering continuation shorts.
🎯 Potential targets
TP1: 1.3360 / 1.3340
TP2: 1.3220–1.3180 blue demand zone
TP3: 1.3139 strong-low target
Extended target: 1.3100–1.3030 if sellers remain in control
⚠️ Risk management
Keep risk controlled on every position. A sensible invalidation point for shorts is above the entry zone and, for wider swing setups, above 1.3575–1.3600. Avoid risking more than a small predefined percentage of account equity per trade, and consider moving the stop to breakeven after the first target is reached. If price closes decisively above the red zone and descending trendline, step aside—the bearish setup may no longer be valid. 🧠
Overall, the chart favours a sell-the-rally / bearish continuation mindset while price remains below the marked supply zone and trendline. The key battle will be around 1.3340: holding above it may create a temporary bounce, while breaking below it could expose the blue support area and the 1.3139 target. EURUSD Buy Idea | Trend Continuation SetupA promising bullish setup is developing on EURUSD as price approaches the 1.14506 support zone. This level is attracting attention due to its technical significance and has the potential to act as a strong foundation for a continuation of the upward trend. If buyers successfully defend this area and bullish confirmation appears, EURUSD may present an attractive long opportunity with favorable risk-to-reward potential.
Trade Setup
Direction: BUY 🟢
Buy Zone: 1.14506
Entry: Wait for bullish confirmation near the support level.
Stop Loss: Place below the recent swing low or according to your risk management strategy.
Take Profit: Target the next key resistance levels while maintaining a positive risk-to-reward ratio.
Technical Outlook
The overall market structure suggests that buyers are attempting to maintain control, and the 1.14506 level could serve as an important demand zone. A bullish rejection from this area, supported by increased buying momentum, may signal the beginning of the next upward move.
For additional confirmation, traders should monitor for:
A bullish engulfing or strong rejection candle.
Higher lows forming on lower timeframes.
A break above recent short-term resistance.
Increased buying volume or sustained bullish momentum.
Waiting for confirmation before entering the trade can help reduce the risk of false breakouts and improve the quality of the setup.
Risk Management
Successful trading depends not only on finding good entries but also on managing risk effectively.
Risk only a small percentage of your account on any single trade.
Always use a stop loss to protect your capital.
Consider taking partial profits as price reaches key resistance levels.
Move your stop loss to break even once the trade has progressed sufficiently in your favor.
Avoid overleveraging, especially during periods of increased market volatility.
Market Considerations
EURUSD is highly sensitive to major economic releases, central bank decisions, inflation data, employment reports, and geopolitical developments. Keep an eye on the economic calendar, as high-impact news events can significantly increase volatility and influence price direction. EURGBP Update: Remains Under Bearish Pressure Within An ImpulseEURGBP is moving nicely lower as anticipated back in May and June, continuing the expected decline after completing the previous corrective structure. The pair is now developing the final wave E, which can take some time to complete, as wave E is expected to unfold in a three-wave (A)(B)(C) structure.
Following the completion of the wave (B) bearish triangle pattern, EURGBP has started a strong decline within the projected wave (C) of E. The current downside structure suggests there is still room for further weakness, with the 0.8400–0.8300 area becoming an important potential target zone. This move could unfold through a lower-degree five-wave bearish impulse, completing the final stages of the larger corrective pattern.
On the 4H chart, EURGBP continues to extend lower as expected on July 1st, but currently it can be making a higher degree abc correction in wave 4, which could retrace the price back toward the ideal 38,2% Fibonacci retracement and 0.8545 resistance area before the next leg lower begins within wave 5.
As long as the broader bearish structure remains intact, any recovery should be viewed as corrective rather than a trend reversal.
USD/CAD: Bears Pause at the 50% Fibonacci LevelUSD/CAD remains under pressure following one of its strongest bearish weeks in recent months. After softer-than-expected US inflation data (CPI and PPI) and the Bank of Canada's decision to leave rates unchanged while maintaining a cautious tone, the pair continues to respect the broader downside structure.
The question now is whether this is simply a pause before another leg lower or the beginning of a deeper corrective bounce.
Technical Overview
Last week, price:
Broke below the ascending channel that had supported the uptrend.
Lost the previous support zone around 1.4140–1.4150.
Broke through the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels.
Has now reached and is consolidating around the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
This area is technically significant because it often becomes the first zone where sellers begin taking profits while buyers attempt to establish a temporary base.
Momentum indicators also suggest the selling pressure is beginning to slow, although there is no confirmed bullish reversal yet.
Fundamental Picture
This week's macro developments continue to favour the Canadian dollar.
Canada
Employment remained resilient with 18,000 new jobs added.
The unemployment picture continues to support the Bank of Canada's cautious stance.
The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged, citing ongoing economic uncertainty rather than signalling immediate easing.
United States
Recent data has weakened the US dollar narrative:
Softer CPI reduced expectations for persistent inflation.
PPI also showed easing price pressures.
Markets continue to reassess the timing of future Federal Reserve policy decisions.
The combination of stronger Canadian fundamentals and softer US inflation has shifted momentum in favour of CAD.
My Trading Thesis
My original plan was straightforward:
Rather than chasing the initial breakdown, I wanted to wait for price to retrace into the 50–61.8% Fibonacci zone before looking for fresh opportunities.
Price has reached that area faster than expected.
From here I will be watching for one of two scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Preferred) : A corrective rally toward the 38.2% level followed by bearish rejection would offer a higher-probability continuation setup.
Scenario 2 : A decisive break below the current support around the 50% retracement could open the path toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level without a meaningful pullback.
Until buyers reclaim the broken support zone near 1.4140, I believe rallies are likely to remain corrective.
The Trading Advantage Frameworks
USD/CAD Macro Score™ (UMS)
34/100 — Bearish
Factors considered:
Canadian employment ✔️
US inflation ✔️
Central bank outlook ✔️
Technical structure ✔️
Market Risk Meter™ (MRM)
Moderate
Major macro events have passed, but traders remain sensitive to new Fed commentary, Canadian data releases, Treasury yields and geopolitical headlines.
Final Thoughts
This week demonstrated why combining technical and fundamental analysis produces a clearer trading framework.
Fundamentals provided the direction.
Technical analysis identified the levels.
Now the market is entering the patience phase, where waiting for confirmation is often more valuable than forcing a trade.
What do you think?
Will USD/CAD find support around the 50% Fibonacci retracement, or is another leg lower toward the 61.8% level more likely?
The Trading Advantage
Technical Analysis for Entry & Exit. Fundamental Analysis for Direction & Momentum.
