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USDCAD: 50% Fibonacci Level tested– Is Another Leg Lower Coming?The sharp USD/CAD selloff that began after softer U.S. inflation data and resilient Canadian fundamentals has now reached another important technical decision point. After breaking below the ascending channel and turning former support into resistance, price has continued respecting the bearish structure. The market is now consolidating around the 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting that sellers remain in control while buyers attempt to stabilize the decline. From my perspective, the broader thesis remains intact: fundamentals are setting the direction, while technicals determine the timing. Macro Picture Last week provided several major catalysts: • Softer U.S. CPI and PPI reduced expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. • The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged, citing economic uncertainty rather than signalling imminent easing. • Canada's resilient labour market continues to provide underlying support for the Canadian dollar. With those events now priced in, this week's focus shifts toward whether fresh data can validate the current trend or trigger a correction. Technical Structure The chart continues to respect bearish market structure. Key observations: Price remains below the broken ascending channel. Previous support around 1.4140–1.4150 has become resistance. The 38.2% Fibonacci level failed to hold. Price is now consolidating around the 50% Fibonacci retracement near 1.4000. The Stochastic RSI has recovered from oversold territory, indicating bearish momentum is slowing, but there is not yet a confirmed bullish reversal. At this stage, the move looks more like bearish consolidation than trend exhaustion. Levels I'm Watching Resistance 1.4050 (38.2% Fibonacci) 1.4140–1.4150 (former support, now resistance) Support 1.4000 (50% Fibonacci) 1.3950 (61.8% Fibonacci) 1.3900 (major historical support zone) A sustained break below the 50% retracement would increase the probability of price extending toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level, where I expect stronger buying interest to emerge. Trading Advantage™ Framework USD/CAD Macro Score™ (UMS): 30/100 🔴 U.S. Dollar: Soft Canadian Dollar: Supported Technical Structure: Bearish Overall Bias: Bearish Market Risk Meter™ (MRM): 🟡 Moderate Markets are transitioning from reacting to last week's data toward positioning for the next macro catalysts, which may increase volatility as new information emerges. My Trading Plan I'm not interested in chasing price after an extended move lower. Instead, I'll continue watching how price behaves around the current Fibonacci support. If sellers remain in control, the next objective becomes the 61.8% retracement. If buyers reclaim the 38.2% level and hold above it, that would be the first sign that a deeper correction may be developing. As always, fundamentals provide the directional bias, while technical analysis determines the entries and exits. The Trading Advantage™ "The highest-probability trades come from waiting for the market to confirm your thesis not from predicting every move."
by KingCephas2026
EUR/USD — Sellers taking control again? 🔥EUR/USD is showing renewed selling pressure after failing to sustain its recent recovery. Price remains inside the broader range, but momentum has shifted toward the downside as buyers continue to struggle below the major resistance zone. 📈 Bullish scenario A strong breakout above the upper supply zone would invalidate the current bearish pressure and could trigger a continuation toward higher prices. 📉 Bearish scenario If the current support zone fails to hold, sellers may push the pair toward the next demand levels below. Until a bullish breakout occurs, downside pressure remains the dominant scenario. For now, the market is trading between key support and resistance, making these zones the most important areas to monitor before expecting the next impulsive move.
by TheZimpact
EUR/JPY weekly trade analysis: 20–24 July 2026EUR/JPY retains a bullish higher-timeframe trend, but the immediate structure points towards consolidation or a corrective decline before another sustained advance. Price remains above the four-hour 55 and 200 EMAs, while four-hour and hourly OBV remain above their respective 200-period averages. This confirms that the broader accumulation structure has not broken. However, price has fallen below the short-term EMA cluster on the hourly and 15-minute charts. The 15-minute OBV is also below its 200-period EMA, showing that intraday participation is no longer supporting the recent advance. The preferred setup is a conditional short following rejection from 185.65–185.75. This is a tactical retracement trade inside a broader bullish trend. The bearish case loses validity following sustained hourly acceptance above 185.80–185.90. EUR/JPY sits between two competing macro forces. The euro could receive support from an ECB hold accompanied by concern about energy-driven inflation. Higher European front-end yields would preserve the euro’s rate advantage over the yen. However, Europe’s exposure to elevated oil prices creates a growth and terms-of-trade headwind. The yen remains vulnerable to Japan’s low-yield environment, but the global backdrop increases the probability of safe-haven demand. Renewed equity weakness, weaker global PMIs or an escalation in geopolitical risk would support the yen and pressure EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY is also exposed to intervention spillover. Japanese intervention would most likely target USD/JPY directly, but broad yen buying could transmit quickly into this cross. The macro balance therefore supports a near-term EUR/JPY correction, while the larger interest-rate differential continues to limit the conviction of aggressive short positions. Expectation Entry zone: 185.66–185.73 Stop-loss: 185.94 Take-profit 1: 185.44 Take-profit 2: 185.20 Take-profit 3: 184.92 Precaution rebound Entry level: 185.581 Stop-loss: 185.199 Take-profit 1: 185.728
Short
by Novaque_Research
Market Structure Read | Building ContextIn this EURUSD Market Structure Read, the objective is to understand the current market environment before thinking about execution. The focus is not on predicting where price will go or providing a trading signal. Instead, this breakdown explains how we build context by starting with the higher timeframe and working down through the lower timeframes to understand structure, key reaction areas and market behaviour. Every analysis begins with the same question: Where is price positioned within the larger market structure? Only after understanding that context do we look for confirmation on the lower timeframe. The process discussed in this video follows these principles: • Higher timeframe context • Market structure • Key reaction areas • Lower timeframe confirmation • Risk before execution No single candle or timeframe should be viewed in isolation. The goal is to understand how the market is organised before making any trading decisions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
by ARX_PriceTime
GBPAUD Technical Analysis – Bullish Reversal Setup📊 GBPAUD Technical Analysis – Bullish Reversal Setup 🚀 GBPAUD is approaching a high-probability bullish reaction zone after a controlled decline into a key Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block (OB). Price is currently testing an important demand area where buyers could regain control. 🔍 Market Structure 🟢 Price is entering the FVG, offering potential liquidity for buyers. 📦 The Order Block below provides strong institutional support. 🔄 A short-term dip into the OB is possible before a bullish reversal. 📈 Holding above the demand zone would strengthen the case for continuation higher. 🎯 Bullish Scenario ✅ Wait for bullish confirmation inside the OB/FVG region. 🚀 A successful rebound could target the 1.9310 – 1.9325 area first. 🎯 Extended upside may challenge the 1.9360 resistance if buying momentum increases. ⚠️ Risk A decisive close below the Order Block would weaken the bullish outlook and could trigger a deeper decline toward the lower support zone. 💡 Bias: Bullish while price respects the Order Block and Fair Value Gap support. 📈
Long
by MarketStrategysignals
EURAUD UPDATEEUR/AUD remains in a clear bearish trend, with price continuing to form lower highs and lower lows after repeated rejections from key supply zones. The recent pullback failed to break resistance, allowing sellers to regain control and push the pair back toward the current support level. If bearish momentum continues, a confirmed break below support could open the way for a move toward the 1.6200 area in the coming sessions. As long as price remains below the highlighted resistance zone, the overall outlook favors further downside.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
GBPUSD REPEATATION OF STRUCTUREAfter a strong impulsive move to the upside, GBPUSD has pulled back into a key demand/support zone, where buyers previously stepped in. This area aligns with the recent structure and could offer a high-probability continuation setup. However, I'm not entering blindly. I want to see a clear bullish confirmation candle—such as a bullish engulfing, strong rejection wick, or another convincing price action signal—before considering a long position. Price must respect the marked demand zone. Wait for a bullish confirmation pattern. Entry only after confirmation. Target: Previous swing high and continuation if momentum remains strong. If price closes decisively below the demand zone, the bullish setup becomes invalid. Patience is the edge. Let the market confirm the idea before committing to the trade.
by ThEDeViL18
Still a dollar bull this weekI still have a running sell trade on EUR/USD from last week. So, this Aussie one is just a correlation-based idea (risk-managed, of course). 1. USD is still quite strong overall in terms of its economic data, much more than EUR and AUD. 2. While I'm unable to add Commitment of Traders data, there is a bearish bias specifically on AUD/USD. 3. This market is outside of its peak all-time range. This doesn't mean that it is guaranteed to go down, but it doesn't present a worthwhile opportunity for bulls looking for another high. 4. The pair is 'hugging' the 200MA on the 4-hour time frame (even without this indicator, it's easy to draw a downwards trendline). However, for higher confirmation, the market is bearish on the monthly time frame.
Short
by Cambistry
USDCHF Will Go Up From Support! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for USDCHF. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.806. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.810. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
EUR/CAD – Is a Long Setup Still in Play?**EUR/CAD – Is a Long Setup Still in Play?** As mentioned in my previous post, **EUR/CAD** had the potential to develop a bullish market structure. The market opened with a **gap**, quickly filled it to the upside, and in the process left behind **equal lows**—a classic **sell-side liquidity** pool that could become relevant. Above the current price, several attractive **buy-side liquidity** levels stand out. These are areas where stop-loss orders from short traders and pending orders from breakout traders are likely resting. **My preferred scenario:** If price first sweeps the **sell-side liquidity around 1.60147** and then shows a strong bullish reaction, higher prices become a realistic possibility. A liquidity sweep followed by a **Market Structure Shift (MSS)** on the lower timeframes would provide additional confirmation for a potential long setup. As always, **this is a trading scenario, not a prediction**. I will let price action determine whether the market confirms the idea. **The best trades often begin where liquidity is taken—not where the crowd expects the move to start.**
Long
by ShaboS