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EURUSD: Intraday Bearish Structure Points to Another Leg LowerMarkets are starting the week after Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which increased expectations that the Fed could raise rates at its September meeting. However, US markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday, so liquidity should be lower and we may see slower price action. Middle East tensions also remain an important focus, especially around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, keeping crude oil elevated and adding to inflation concerns. This is important because higher oil prices can keep pressure on inflation and support higher yields and interest rates. Looking ahead, we have a busy second half of the week, with US PPI and the ECB rate decision on Thursday, followed by the key US CPI report on Friday. After the strong jobs data, inflation numbers will be especially important for the Fed outlook, so US yields should remain one of the main drivers for the dollar, stocks, metals and crypto this week. EURUSD saw some selling at the end of last week, exactly from our mentioned resistance area around 1.1640, but the market stabilized pretty quickly after Friday's US jobs data. It now looks like we are still tracking a corrective recovery, which could become a bit more complex. Also, let's not forget that today is a US holiday, so price action could remain slow and choppy. If we see another recovery, 1.1640 remains important resistance, followed by the 1.1660 area, from where the market could turn lower again. Overall, the structure remains bearish, especially after the earlier five-wave decline from the 1.1711 high. So after the current pause, we would expect at least one more leg down, with 1.1566 being an important level to watch. GH
by ew-forecast
Euro Outlook: Ascending Trend Line Supports Further UpsideHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current EURUSD (4H) chart structure. EURUSD previously traded inside a descending structure before breaking higher and shifting bullish. Price then formed a range, broke out, and tested the 1.1690 Seller Zone before pulling back and bouncing from the Buyer Zone and Trend Line. Currently, EURUSD is trading below the 1.1690 Seller Zone while holding above the 1.1610 Buyer Zone and ascending Trend Line. The recent bounce from support suggests buyers are preparing for another attempt higher. As long as EURUSD remains above the 1.1610 Buyer Zone and respects the ascending Trend Line, the bullish scenario remains valid. A continuation higher could push price toward the 1.1690 Seller Zone (TP1). However, a breakdown and close below the Buyer Zone would weaken the bullish outlook and increase the possibility of further downside. Please share this idea with your friends and click "Boost" 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
22
EUR/USD Breakdown: The ECB Hikes but the Euro Gets Energy BillThe European Central Bank has announced a rate hike. The euro has responded by breaking support. This is not the currency market failing Economics 101. It is the market remembering the small print: higher interest rates can support a currency, provided the economic reasons behind them are not doing more damage elsewhere. On the chart, EUR/USD is trading near 1.15506, below the September swing low at 1.15640. The ECB’s quarter-point increase, which takes the deposit rate to 2.50% from September 16, has not persuaded buyers to defend that level. The problem is not a shortage of monetary resolve. It is an increasingly expensive energy shock, a dollar supported by expectations of tighter Fed policy, and a European economy trying to absorb both higher borrowing costs and a larger import bill. Higher rates are attractive. Higher rates imposed on an economy facing an expensive supply shock are a more complicated sales pitch. The Chart Has Stopped Giving the Recovery the Benefit of the Doubt The four-hour structure provides a disciplined way to test that macro argument. EUR/USD declined from its August peak near 1.1710 to the early-September low around 1.15640. The subsequent rebound reached 1.16537 but stopped below the August high. That created a lower high. Buyers had improved the immediate price action without repairing the preceding decline. The latest selloff has now pushed beneath the intervening swing low. This is the important development: the market is attempting to extend a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, rather than merely retreating from resistance. However, the latest four-hour candle was still forming when the chart was captured. The distinction between a penetration and a completed break remains relevant. A close below 1.15640, followed by an inability to reclaim it, would strengthen the continuation case. A rebound rejected near the broken level would be especially informative. Under the polarity principle, former support would be starting to function as resistance. Above that immediate pivot, 1.15982 marks another broken-support reference. Farther overhead, the 200-period WMA near 1.16102 and Bollinger middle band near 1.16119 form a compact moving-average area. The recovery therefore has several tasks ahead of it. Reclaiming the broken swing low would ease immediate pressure. Recovering the moving-average area would improve the short-term structure. Neither, by itself, would remove the lower high that defines the broader bearish argument on this chart. The Scenarios That Would Change the Argument The base case is a bearish continuation attempt. It becomes stronger with a completed close below the broken swing low and subsequent evidence that buyers cannot reclaim it. The alternative is not necessarily a sudden return to a major uptrend. It can begin as a failed breakdown and develop into a corrective recovery. Confirmation reduces ambiguity; it does not remove risk. A brief bounce would not erase the downtrend, just as a brief move below support would not guarantee its continuation. The Euro Needs More Than a Hawkish Headline Monday’s decline does not mean ECB tightening is irrelevant. It means the interest-rate benefit is competing with an increasingly uncomfortable energy-and-growth calculation. The euro must absorb the consequences of more expensive imports while the dollar approaches a Fed meeting with substantial tightening already anticipated. That leaves the currency pair sensitive not only to the decisions themselves, but to changes in the expected path beyond them. The chart reflects that tension. The rebound stopped at a lower high. Price is pressing beneath a significant swing low. Momentum supports the selling, but the completed close and the behaviour around broken support still matter. The central question is not whether the ECB sounds determined. It is whether the euro’s relative economic proposition is improving. For now, the market appears unconvinced. The ECB has raised the prospective return on euros. The energy market has raised the cost of owning the European outlook. EUR/USD is where those two calculations meet.
Short
by Errante
Eurusd Daily analysis Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Daily Timeframe ​As anticipated in our previous daily timeframe analysis for EUR/USD, the current corrective decline played out exactly according to plan. However, this downward movement is setting up a high-probability bullish reversal. ​Fresh Order Area: The highlighted flag contains unmitigated institutional orders and remains fresh, making it a strong structural zone for a potential rebound. ​Compression (CP) Liquidity: The prior upward move formed a clear Compression (CP) structure. As price builds compression, buy orders remain left behind in the liquidity pockets behind the CP path. ​Maximum Pain Level (MPL): Price is now approaching the defined MPL within the flag limit. This key decision zone is expected to absorb remaining sell side liquidity, trigger stored buy orders, and initiate a sharp bullish reversal toward upper targets. ​Trading decisions should await lower timeframe structural confirmation inside the MPL zone before entering long positions.
Long
by FoxForexVIP
UPDATE ON EUR/USD TRADESEUR/USD - well well well, what a lovely sight to wake up to this morning, as you can see price has played out perfectly for us since the open just last night. I am expecting this to continue throughout the day. Given the fundamentals due today I am expecting some movement and introduced volume so it will be interesting to see how price plays out. The original trade is running + 141 pips. (+ 5.2%) 5.2RR The re-entry trade is running + 92 pips. (+ 2.8%) 2.8RR Two amazing trades to be a part of, a big well done to those of you who managed to jump on, be sure to be taking partials and applying safety measures with your trades Any questions about the trades themselves or the analysis behind the trades drop me a message or comment below and I will get back to you as soon as possible.
Short
by Lukegforex
USDJPY: Sell the RallyUSDJPY: Consolidation After a Sharp Drop – Favor Selling on Rallies After a strong decline, USDJPY is slowing down and consolidating within the 153.00–154.60 range. Main scenario: Price rallies toward 155.00–156.00 → favor SELL. Alternative scenario: Break below 153.00 → potential continuation toward 152.00–151.00–150.00 → look for BUY opportunities at support. Outlook: For now, monitor price action within the consolidation range. Favor SELL on rallies, while BUY opportunities will only be considered when price reaches key support zones. Catalysts: CPI | BOE | FOMC → potential triggers for volatility and the next breakout direction.
Short
by chungngct
USD/CHF Bearish Bias: Bearish 🔴 USD/CHF has pushed strongly into a major resistance/supply zone around 0.8190–0.8210, an area that previously triggered a sharp sell-off. Key levels: 🔴 Entry Zone: 0.8180–0.8200 🛑 Invalidation/SL: 0.8210 🎯 Target: 0.7970 📍 Key confirmation: Break below 0.8157 📌 Liquidity: Below the recent lows Trade idea: Wait for price to reject the 0.8190–0.8210 supply zone, followed by bearish displacement and a break of 0.8157. A retracement can then provide a cleaner short entry. The multiple FVGs below price may act as reaction/mitigation areas as the move develops. Potential R:R: ~1:10
Short
by B13FX
EUR/CAD SHORTThe EUR/CAD trader is essentially waiting for price to retrace from ~1.602 toward the 1.610–1.613 resistance/FVG area, reject that zone, and then continue the bearish move toward approximately 1.573. The critical thing to watch 1.6105–1.6143 is the decision zone. If price goes there and gets rejected → bearish thesis strengthens. If price breaks strongly above 1.6143 and holds → this particular short setup is likely invalidated. And if price simply keeps falling from 1.602 without giving the retracement, chasing the move would give a much worse risk/reward than the setup drawn on the chart.
Short
by B13FX
The ECB Raises Rate But the Dollar Retains the Upper Hand!The European Central Bank raised interest rates on 10 September by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.50% and the main refinancing operations rate to 2.65%, while stressing that geopolitical tensions continue to fuel inflationary pressures and that inflation will remain well above the 2% target for an extended period. ECB President Christine Lagarde described the decision as "a no-brainer," noting that it was taken unanimously. Despite this hawkish tone, the euro gained little from it, as the market had already priced the hike in, and the interest rate differential still tilts clearly in the dollar's favor. On the US side, August inflation data (released on 11 September) came in supportive of the dollar: the headline index rose 0.4% month-on-month versus 0.1% in July, while the core index advanced 0.3% month-on-month, above market expectations of 0.2%, taking annual inflation to 3.4%, driven by a surge in energy costs of 28% year-on-year for fuel. This reading strengthened expectations of a US rate hike. Markets are now pricing the probability of the Fed beginning a hiking cycle with a quarter-point move at close to 70% at its meeting on 15–16 September, starting from the current range of 3.50%–3.75%, a meeting that also comes with updated economic projections and the dot plot. The rate differential between the Fed (3.50%–3.75%) and the ECB (2.50%) continues to work in the dollar's favor, while higher oil prices hurt the eurozone, a net energy importer, more than they hurt the US economy. Any hawkish tone from the Fed this week could push the pair lower still, whereas a hold accompanied by a neutral tone could give the euro a corrective rebound toward the resistance areas outlined below. Technical Analysis EUR/USD is trading within a downward move on the 4-hour timeframe, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. In the most recent leg, price broke the previous low and printed a new low below 1.15663, at 1.15515, confirming the continuation of bearish momentum. By applying the Fibonacci retracement tool from the last lower high (marked by the red arrow) to the last lower low (marked by the green arrow), price may see a corrective retracement toward the supply area marked by the red rectangle, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.16309 and the 88% level at 1.16412. This area is a candidate for price to be met with selling pressure that returns it to the downward trend, should bearish momentum remain intact. The key resistance to watch is the 1.16543 level, which represents the last lower high formed. As long as price remains below this level without printing a new high above it, the bearish scenario remains the more likely one. A close above 1.16543, however, would weaken this scenario and open the way for a broader corrective move higher.
by CFI
USDJPY - BEARISH BIAS ~ WEEKLY - We can see the market is in a bearish trend, breaking below the EMA. Price has also broken below previous structure confirming we are in a downtrend. ~ DAILY - We wait for price to pull back to the AOI which is a strong fib level, within a psychological level and has multiple rejections making it a valid zone to react from. Overall, I have a bearish bias as seen across multiple timeframes such as Weekly and Daily. As price moves up to my AOI, I will wait for my confirmations across multiple timeframes to see how it reacts! #swingtrader #tradingeducation #mjswings #forextrading #tradingstrategy
Short
by MJSwings
NZDUSD Is Going Down! Short! Take a look at our analysis for NZDUSD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 0.581. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 0.579 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
GBPJPY UPDATEGBPJPY is holding a strong 4H demand zone around 207.5–208.3 after a sharp selloff from the 216.0 area. Price is now showing a recovery from support, suggesting buyers may be preparing for a corrective move higher. A sustained move above 208.3 could open the path toward the 210.2–210.4 resistance zone, which is the key near-term target. A clean 4H close above 210.4 would strengthen the bullish reversal setup and expose 211.7–211.9 next. The overall structure remains bearish below the major 212.0–213.0 resistance area, so this should initially be treated as a recovery move. If 207.5 breaks decisively, the bullish scenario weakens and another decline could develop.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
USDJPY Is Bullish! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 153.576. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 153.944 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
EURCAD Will Go Higher! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for EURCAD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.603. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.609 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Will Safe-Haven Dollar Flows Shatter EUR/USD?Macroeconomics and Energy-Driven Divergence Escalating Middle East conflicts drive crude oil prices toward $100 per barrel. Rising energy import bills severely strain European trade balances and consumer prices. Euro area inflation hit 3.3 percent in August, its highest since September 2023. A 14.3 percent annual surge in energy prices drove that increase. Inflation excluding energy held far lower at 2.2 percent. Meanwhile, US energy independence shields domestic markets from external supply shocks. The Federal Reserve maintains elevated interest rates to suppress persistent inflationary pressure. The European Central Bank raised all three key rates by 25 basis points on September 10. The deposit rate now stands at 2.50 percent, effective September 16. EUR/USD trades near 1.1600 after a fully priced hike delivered no fresh yield support. Money markets now price three further ECB increases by March. Geopolitics and Sovereign Infrastructure Security Geopolitical instability disrupts critical maritime trade routes and international supply chains continuously. Foreign exchange markets quickly reprice geopolitical risk across European capital markets. Sovereigns demand resilient digital infrastructure to protect national currency clearing operations. Cyberattacks targeting cross-border settlement systems like T2 pose real risks. The ECB implements advanced cybersecurity measures to guard European financial infrastructure. Central banks deploy quantum-safe encryption algorithms across financial messaging platforms. Protecting institutional foreign exchange pipelines ensures euro liquidity during severe geopolitical crises. Institutional Leadership and Policy Innovation ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh face contrasting structural challenges. Lagarde called the September hike unanimous while refusing to pre-commit to any rate path. She stressed that inflation risks tilt upward while growth risks tilt downward. The ECB upgraded euro area growth to 0.9 percent for 2026 and 1.4 percent for 2027. Leadership constantly balances inflation targets against economic growth risks. The ECB actively pursues digital euro innovation to modernize regional payment architecture. Patent filings for central bank digital currency infrastructure accelerate rapidly worldwide. High-frequency trading firms register advanced algorithms for automated FX execution. Institutional innovation improves liquidity depth during volatile trading sessions. Cross-Sector Impact on Biotechnology and Pharma Multinational pharmaceutical giants rely heavily on stable EUR/USD exchange rates for operations. European biopharma firms export multi-billion-dollar drug treatments to American healthcare markets. Currency fluctuations alter revenue projections and cross-border clinical trial budgets drastically. Stronger US dollars increase purchasing power for American drug acquisitions in Europe. Life science companies utilize customized derivative contracts to hedge long-term currency risk. Stable financial hedging protocols preserve funding for critical scientific research and medical innovation.
Short
by the5erstrading