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Crucial GBPUSD Setup This Week: Why the NASDAQ Holds the KeyGBPUSD 🌍 The macro narrative heading into this week is heavily dominated by the sweeping UK political leadership transition as PM Burnham takes control, keeping fiscal policy choices and Cabinet appointments under a microscope 🏦. Interestingly, general market chatter suggests a mixed sentiment profile; while retail consensus is currently leaning slightly bearish due to the recent two-day retracement down from multi-month highs, institutional focus remains anchored on shifting Federal Reserve expectations following a string of cooling US inflation metrics. However, our tactical upside bias for the British Pound relies entirely on intermarket risk dynamics. I am looking for a bullish expansion on GBPUSD only if the VIX volatility index actively drops from its recent spike near 16.72 and only if the NASDAQ holds its structural ground and continues to trend bullish 📈. A resurgent, strong NASDAQ will naturally reflect a robust risk-on market regime, which generally serves to weaken the greenback and clear the path for cable's expansion. We are seeing a classic Wyckoffian accumulation or re-accumulation structure building on the hourly time frame as the market transitions from a markdown phase into a well-defined balance area 📉. The structural downtrend experienced a clear character change as sellers failed to push past major horizontal support around the 1.33961 level, leaving late shorts heavily exposed to a potential liquidity hunt. Widespread community chatter is calling for further breakdowns, which tells me retail sentiment is likely trapped in a crowded short trade right at the bottom of the range. Looking closely at the visual indicators on the chart, the market is currently rotating directly around the primary Volume Profile Point of Control (POC) near 1.34651, where massive liquidity has been transacted. The price is coils tight within a local balance zone, tightly bound between the high volume node clusters, setting the stage for an explosive breakout. We are currently trading right in the belly of this Cable intermediate range, waiting for the market to declare its structural intention 🧹. I am keeping a sharp eye out for a deliberate run on liquidity to clean out the late sellers before the real markup phase initiates. If the broader market maintains its risk-on posture, the structural trigger requires a clean, impulsive bullish Break of Structure (BoS) past the intermediate high-volume resistance. Once that high-volume ceiling is broken and retested as valid support, it validates our transition from balance to discovery phase, clearing a smooth run toward the prior swing highs near 1.3560. My Trade Plan 🎯 Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish (Strictly contingent on intermarket risk confirmation and patient execution). Entry Protocol: Execution requires a clear, impulsive bullish Break of Structure (BoS) above the 1.34850 liquidity line, followed by a successful retest of the Volume Profile POC area at 1.34651. This trigger must align perfectly with a contracting VIX index and a bullishly trending NASDAQ; if the structural breakout fails to materialize or if equities turn south, the plan is completely abandoned.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
**GBP/JPY – Are Lower Prices Ahead?****GBP/JPY – Are Lower Prices Ahead?** GBP/JPY remains in a strong bullish trend on the higher timeframes. However, the market is currently undergoing a corrective move, and the price action is becoming increasingly interesting. Last **Thursday**, the market broke its short-term structure to the downside, suggesting that sellers have taken control in the near term. Below the current price, there are several **open Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)** that could attract price as the market seeks to rebalance these inefficiencies. At the same time, the recent decline has left behind a **short-term buy-side liquidity** level. One possible scenario is that price first sweeps this short-term high, collecting the resting buy stops, before continuing its move lower toward the open FVGs. **My preferred scenario:** ➡️ Sweep the short-term buy-side liquidity. ➡️ Reject from that area. ➡️ Continue lower into the Fair Value Gaps below. Of course, this is **a trading scenario, not a prediction**. The market doesn't have to follow any script. I will wait for price action to confirm the setup before considering a position. **Liquidity creates the opportunity. Price action provides the confirmation.**
Short
by ShaboS
EURUSD sell setupEURUSD continues to trade around the 1,1400 level as the market waits for the next major fundamental catalyst. There are no high-impact U.S. economic releases scheduled this week, while attention will shift to the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday. The pair may extend its rally toward the 1,1500 area, where we'll be watching for signs of rejection and fresh opportunities to enter short positions. For now, our primary outlook remains unchanged, with the broader bearish trend expected to continue.
by ForexTrendline
GBPUSD Pulls Back After a Strong RallyMarket Structure GBPUSD is currently in a short-term bullish market structure following a strong recovery from the previous downtrend. Although the pair is experiencing a pullback, the sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. Unless price breaks below the recent swing support, buyers continue to hold the short-term advantage. Key Resistance Zone First resistance: 1.3490–1.3520 This is the nearest resistance zone after the recent pullback. Buyers need to reclaim this area to regain upside momentum. Second resistance: 1.3540–1.3570 This marks the recent swing high and represents the next key breakout level. A move above this zone would strengthen the bullish outlook. Major resistance: 1.3620–1.3650 This is a broader resistance area from previous price reactions. A sustained break above this region would confirm a stronger medium-term recovery. Key Support Zone First support: 1.3430–1.3450 This is the nearest short-term support and the first area buyers are expected to defend. Second support: 1.3380–1.3400 If the price falls below the first support, this zone becomes the next important demand area. Major support: 1.3300–1.3330 This represents the base of the recent recovery. Losing this area would weaken the current bullish structure. Market Sentiment Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish. The recent pullback appears to be corrective rather than a trend reversal. Buyers continue to hold the short-term advantage as long as key support remains intact. Above 1.3520, bullish momentum may strengthen further. Below 1.3430, bearish pressure may begin to increase. Please share your view below: Will GBPUSD defend support and continue toward new highs? Or will sellers regain control and push the price back toward 1.3400? More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly.
by Yong726
NZDUSD (4H) – Bullish Trend Continuation & Long Setup📌 Market Structure Overview Timeframe: 4H. Market Structure: Strongly Bullish Order Flow. Price action is consistently printing Higher Highs and Higher Lows, validated by successive BOS (Break of Structure) milestones. The buyers remain in complete control. 📌 Technical Analysis & Price Action Impulsive Expansion: The aggressive bullish rally initiated around July 14 created strong upward momentum, leaving behind multiple unmitigated FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) in the Discount zone. Consolidation & Re-accumulation: Price recently underwent a minor corrective consolidation to build up liquidity before printing a solid bullish candle that confirms the immediate buying pressure. Key Demand Zone: The ideal zone to look for buy setups aligns around the 0.57837 area. This level acts as a high-probability confluence point featuring a prominent unfilled FVG and structural support. 🎯 Trading Plan Direction: LONG Expected Entry Zone: 0.57837 (Look for lower timeframe confirmation like a 15m CHoCH inside this zone to refine your execution). Stop Loss (SL): 0.57200 (Placed safely below the lower imbalances and structural invalidation point). Take Profit (TP): 0.59015 (Targeting the next liquidity pool at the new high). Risk/Reward Ratio: Highly favorable.
Long
by CIPHERCHART
GBPJPY (4H) – Potential Long Setup at FVG + BOS Confluence📌 Market Structure Overview Timeframe: 4H (Medium-term). Market Structure: Strongly Bullish. The market has been consistently printing Higher Highs and Higher Lows, confirmed by successive Break of Structure (BOS). The most recent BOS occurred around the 218.000 area . 📌 Technical Analysis & Price Action Impulsive Move: The strong bullish rally (around July 15) left behind a significant FVG (Fair Value Gap). The impulsive candle subsequently established a new high at 219.600 Corrective Retracement: After tapping the high, price has been pulling back with smaller-bodied candles, indicating weakening bearish momentum. This downside move looks like a healthy liquidity mitigation to fill the imbalance. Key Confluence Zone: The 217.900 – 218.000 area stands out as a high-probability demand zone due to the confluence of: The previous BOS level (Old Resistance turning into New Support). An unfilled 4H FVG. 🎯 Trading Plan We will patiently wait for price to retrace deeper into the Discount Zone before looking for buy setups aligned with the major trend. Direction: LONG Expected Entry Zone: 217.900 – 218.000 (Look for lower timeframe confirmation like a 15m/1H CHoCH within this zone to refine entry). Stop Loss (SL): 217.300 (Placed below the FVG and key support structural low). Take Profit (TP): 219.600 (Targeting a retest of the recent swing high). Risk/Reward (R:R) Ratio: ~ 2.5R - 3R
by CIPHERCHART
EURUSD Holds Near a Key Decision ZoneEURUSD Holds Near a Key Decision Zone — Breakout or Another Rejection? Market Structure EURUSD is currently in a broader bearish structure with short-term stabilization. The sharp decline has paused, and the price is forming a sideways recovery above the recent low. However, the sequence of lower highs has not yet been fully broken. A confirmed move above the recent resistance area would improve the short-term structure, while a break below the range support would place sellers back in control. Key Resistance Zone First resistance: 1.1450–1.1480 This is the nearest resistance zone and the upper boundary of the recent consolidation. Price has struggled to hold above this area, making it the first level that buyers need to reclaim. Second resistance: 1.1500–1.1530 This area includes the psychological 1.1500 level and a previous reaction zone. A confirmed breakout above it would strengthen the recovery outlook. Major resistance: 1.1580–1.1620 This is a broader structural resistance area formed during the previous decline. EURUSD would need to recover this zone before the medium-term bearish structure begins to weaken more clearly. Key Support Zone First support: 1.1400–1.1420 This is the nearest short-term support area. As long as the price remains above it, buyers may continue attempting to break the current range high. Second support: 1.1360–1.1380 This area has produced several recent buying reactions and remains an important support if the price falls back below 1.1400. Major support: 1.1320–1.1350 This is the base of the recent recovery and the most important support zone on the current chart. A break below it would damage the stabilization structure and restore stronger bearish momentum. Market Sentiment Market sentiment is currently neutral with a cautious recovery bias. Selling pressure has eased compared with the earlier decline, but buyers have not yet established a clear breakout. The market is still waiting for confirmation outside the recent range. Above 1.1480, short-term recovery momentum may improve. Below 1.1400, bearish pressure may begin to strengthen again. Please share your view below: Will EURUSD break above 1.1450–1.1480 and continue toward 1.1530? Or will sellers defend the resistance zone and push the price back toward 1.1380? More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly.
by Yong726
CHFTHB Tracks Market SentimentMarket Outlook CHFTHB is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish bias. Switzerland has no major economic data releases scheduled today, leaving the Swiss Franc primarily driven by safe-haven demand, US Dollar movements, and overall global market sentiment. Meanwhile, the VIX Index is currently at 18.77, indicating that market uncertainty remains at a moderate level, although risk sentiment has not yet shifted into a clear risk-off environment. This could help sustain demand for the Swiss Franc and provide modest support for CHFTHB in the short term. Technical Analysis The overall chart structure for CHFTHB remains Sideways with a Bullish Bias, as the pair continues to hold above the key support zone around 41.58–41.62. Price is currently consolidating within a trading range while testing the 41.66 resistance level, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A successful breakout and sustained move above 41.66 would confirm renewed buying momentum and increase the likelihood of a rally toward the 41.70–41.74 resistance zone. In addition, a weaker opening in the Thai stock market could provide further support for CHFTHB. Risk Factors Despite the overall bullish bias, the pair remains within a consolidation range. Failure to break above 41.66 could trigger short-term selling pressure, leading to a pullback toward the 41.58 support level. A break below 41.58 would indicate weakening buying momentum and increase the probability of a deeper correction toward the major support area around 41.54. Target Price: 41.70 – 41.74 Support: 41.58 – 41.54 Cut Loss: 41.56
by YES_Group
GBPTHB Tracks USD MovesMarket Outlook GBPTHB is expected to trade sideways with a bullish bias in the short term, as the United Kingdom has no major economic data releases scheduled today. As a result, the British Pound is likely to be driven primarily by US Dollar movements and overall global market sentiment. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the release of the UK labour market data tomorrow, which could provide further insight into the UK economic outlook and the future monetary policy direction of the Bank of England (BoE) Technical Analysis The overall chart structure for GBPTHB is transitioning into a Sideways to Sideways Up pattern after correcting from the recent high around 45.48. The pair is currently trading above the key support area near 45.15 and attempting to establish a new base within the 45.24–45.28 zone. If price can hold above this area, it could rebound toward the 45.31–45.35 resistance zone, which coincides with the 50.0%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and represents a significant resistance area in the current structure. In addition, a weaker opening in the Thai stock market could provide further support for GBPTHB. Risk Factors Although short-term momentum has started to improve, the pair is still trading below its key resistance zone. Failure to break above 45.28–45.31 could trigger renewed selling pressure, leading to a pullback toward the 45.15–45.11 support area. A break below 45.15 would signal weakening buying momentum and increase the likelihood of a deeper correction toward the Order Block around 45.11. Target Price: 45.31 – 45.35 Support: 45.15 – 45.11 Cut Loss: 45.14
by YES_Group
AUDTHB Holds Bullish BiasMarket Outlook AUDTHB is expected to trade sideways with a bullish bias in the short term. Australia has no major economic data releases scheduled today, leaving the market focused primarily on developments from China. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, in line with market expectations. As no additional stimulus measures were announced, the immediate impact on the Australian Dollar has been limited. Nevertheless, the Australian Dollar remains highly sensitive to China’s economic outlook, commodity prices, and global market sentiment. Meanwhile, the recent weakness in the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to provide support for AUDTHB, increasing the likelihood that the pair will remain stable or strengthen modestly in the short term. Technical Analysis The overall chart structure for AUDTHB remains Sideways with a Bullish Bias after rebounding from the 23.42 support zone and continuing to trade above the EMA, indicating that the broader uptrend remains intact. Although price is currently facing resistance around 23.51, the bullish structure has not been invalidated. A successful breakout and sustained move above 23.51 would strengthen buying momentum and open the way for a test of the 23.54–23.56 resistance zone, which also coincides with the previous Swing High. In addition, a weaker opening in the Thai stock market could provide further support for AUDTHB. Risk Factors Despite the overall bullish bias, the pair remains close to a key resistance level. Failure to break above 23.51 could trigger profit-taking, leading to a pullback toward the 23.46–23.45 support area. A break below 23.45 would indicate weakening buying momentum and increase the risk of a deeper correction toward 23.42. Target Price: 23.54 – 23.56 Support: 23.46 – 23.45 Cut Loss: 23.44
Long
by YES_Group
EURTHB Awaits German PPIMarket Outlook EURTHB is expected to trade sideways today as markets focus on the release of Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI), a key indicator of cost pressures in the manufacturing sector. A stronger-than-expected PPI reading could reinforce inflation expectations and support the outlook for future European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, providing short-term support for the Euro. However, EURTHB is also likely to be influenced by US Dollar movements and overall global market sentiment, as the Eurozone economic calendar remains relatively light today. Technical Analysis The overall chart structure for EURTHB remains Sideways with a Bullish Bias, following the recent rebound from the 38.40 support area. Although the pair is facing selling pressure near resistance in the short term, the broader structure continues to suggest a consolidation phase before the next directional move. Price is currently trading near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (38.449) and the 50.0% Fibonacci level (38.471). A sustained move above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (38.493) would confirm renewed buying momentum and increase the likelihood of a rally toward the 38.52–38.54 resistance zone, which aligns with the bullish scenario and the previous Swing High. Risk Factors Despite the overall bullish bias, the pair remains within a consolidation range. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 38.44–38.45 could attract price back to fill the imbalance if the pair fails to break above the 38.49 resistance level. A break below 38.44 would strengthen short-term selling pressure and increase the probability of a correction toward 38.42 and 38.40. In addition, a positive opening in the Thai stock market could strengthen the Thai Baht and put downward pressure on EURTHB. Target Price: 38.52 – 38.54 Support: 38.42 – 38.40 Cut Loss: 38.39
by YES_Group
DXY Weighs on USDTHBMarket Outlook The US Dollar Index (DXY) opened lower, putting pressure on the US Dollar and leading USDTHB to trade sideways with a bearish bias in the short term. Market participants are closely watching the release of the US Leading Economic Index (LEI) for June, which will provide further insight into the outlook for the US economy. A stronger-than-expected reading could support the US Dollar. With a relatively light US economic calendar today, USD price action is expected to be driven primarily by US Treasury yields, DXY movements, and overall global market sentiment. Technical Analysis The overall trend for USDTHB remains bullish, as the pair continues to maintain its Higher Low market structure. Although price is currently consolidating within a narrow range, the broader uptrend remains intact. The pair is trading above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (33.621) and near the 50.0% Fibonacci level (33.601). If price can reclaim the 33.64–33.65 resistance zone and break above the recent Swing High, it would confirm renewed buying momentum and increase the probability of a move toward the 33.70–33.72 resistance area under the bullish scenario. Risk Factors Despite the bullish outlook, 33.66 remains a key short-term resistance level. Failure to break above this area could trigger profit-taking, leading to a pullback toward the 33.60–33.58 support zone. A decisive break below 33.58 would weaken bullish momentum and increase the likelihood of a deeper correction toward 33.55. In addition, a positive opening in the Thai stock market this morning could support the Thai Baht and put downward pressure on USDTHB. Target Price: 33.70 – 33.72 Support: 33.60 – 33.58 Cut Loss: 33.57
Long
by YES_Group
USD/SEK — BUYReason: The Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50-3.75% while Sweden's Riksbank holds at just 1.75%, creating a massive 200bp interest rate differential favoring USD. The Riksbank has signaled a dovish stance with potential for further cuts, while the Fed remains neutral-to-hawkish. Sweden's economy is heavily dependent on EU growth, which remains weak, while the US economy shows relative strength. This creates a strong carry trade opportunity where investors earn the interest rate differential while holding USD over SEK. For a 60-day horizon, the combination of yield advantage, diverging central bank policies, and stronger US fundamentals makes USD/SEK a high-confidence long position. دلیل: فدرال رزرو آمریکا نرخ بهره را در محدوده ۳.۵۰ تا ۳.۷۵٪ ثابت نگه داشته، در حالی که بانک مرکزی سوئد (Riksbank) نرخ را فقط روی ۱.۷۵٪ حفظ کرده است. این اختلاف ۲۰۰ واحد پایه‌ای به نفع دلار آمریکا ایجاد می‌کند. بانک سوئد لحن انبساطی دارد و احتمال کاهش بیشتر نرخ را داده، در حالی که فدرال رزرو خنثی رو به انقباضی است. اقتصاد سوئد به شدت به رشد منطقه یورو وابسته است که ضعیف باقی مانده، در حالی که اقتصاد آمریکا قدرت نسبی نشان می‌دهد. این شرایط یک موقعیت عالی برای «معامله Carry» ایجاد می‌کند که در آن سرمایه‌گذاران با نگهداری USD به جای SEK، از اختلاف نرخ بهره سود می‌برند. برای افق ۶۰ روزه، ترکیب مزیت بازدهی، واگرایی سیاست بانک‌های مرکزی، و بنیادهای قوی‌تر آمریکا، USD/SEK را به یک موقعیت خرید با اطمینان بالا تبدیل می‌کند.
Long
by abolfazlabedi
USDCAD Forecast: Bulls Eye Breakout Above Key ResistanceOANDA:USDCAD is pushing into a fresh setup on the 4H, building support near the 1.4000 handle and now testing into resistance above. 📌 Structure: Price has been consolidating above 1.4000 and is now challenging the 1.4090 resistance shelf that's capped the last several attempts higher 📌 Zone: Buyers have been defending step by step, holding the 1.3950 to 1.4015 demand zone and keeping the broader uptrend structure intact 📌 Sentiment: Persistent softness in crude oil ( TVC:USOIL ) continues to weigh on CAD, while a resilient greenback backed by TVC:DXY strength keeps this pair biased higher into the next catalyst 📌 Catalyst: Upcoming BoC rate guidance and US data prints could be the spark that confirms this breakout or stalls price back at resistance 📍 Entry: 1.40148 🎯 Target: 1.40896 : lines up with the next resistance shelf above, a logical first target for this USDCAD price prediction and breakout setup if momentum holds Worth watching CAD crosses like OANDA:CADJPY too, since broad CAD softness is the other half of this move. Technical analysis favors continuation as long as price holds the demand zone. Not financial advice, just reading the chart as it develops.
Long
by MuhammadTrades
AUDJPY Buy Setup: HTF Liquidity Sweep & LTF Breakout📝 Overview We are tracking a potential Buy/Long position on AUDJPY, utilizing a multi-timeframe approach between the 1-Hour (HTF) and 5-Minute (LTF) charts. 🔍 Technical Breakdown 1-Hour Chart (HTF Perspective): Price swept recent lows to capture sell-side liquidity before aggressively rejecting upward. The current 1H candle is printing a strong, solid bullish body, signaling that buyers have stepped back into the market. 5-Minute Chart (LTF Execution): Following the sharp liquidity flush, price action shows a clear V-shaped recovery. Structure has shifted with a break of minor highs, confirming strong intraday bullish momentum. 🚀 Trade Parameters (Hypothetical Setup) Trade Type: Long / Buy Entry Price: 113.480 (Immediate momentum breakout / Market price) Stop Loss (SL): 113.050 (Placed safely below the recent 5m liquidity spike low) Take Profit 1 (TP1): 113.650 (First local structural resistance) Take Profit 2 (TP2): 113.800 (Major 1H structural high target)
Long
by GreggiBond
EURUSD Weekly Head & Shoulders Targets 1.09A clear head-and-shoulders structure forming on the weekly timeframe of the EURUSD chart, signalling the potential for a retracement in the overall uptrend. Price is testing the descending neckline around the 1.14–1.15 region. A confirmed weekly breakdown and continued acceptance below this area would validate the pattern and support a measured move toward approximately 1.09. The setup aligns with the potential short-term bullish retracement developing on DXY. A recovery in the dollar could add pressure to EURUSD and help drive the projected decline. A sustained move back above the right shoulder would weaken the bearish structure.
Short
by Cryptsyxalt