GBPJPY 19/07 Is Retracing Into Value AgainGBPJPY has rejected the recent Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) after an aggressive bullish expansion, leading many traders to believe that a larger bearish reversal may already be underway.
The problem?
A rejection from liquidity alone does not confirm a trend reversal.
While the current decline has introduced short-term selling pressure, the H4 bullish structure remains intact. Price is now approaching a high-probability reaction area around the Point of Control (POC) and H4 Order Block (OB), where buyers could attempt to regain control.
The current move appears to be a healthy retracement rather than a confirmed bearish reversal.
For now, the market is correcting.
But the higher-timeframe trend hasn't been broken yet.
Currently
• Price swept the recent Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL)
• Short-term bearish momentum is developing
• H4 ascending channel remains intact
• Price is retracing toward the POC and H4 Order Block
• Major demand remains below current price
• Higher-timeframe structure continues to favor buyers
• A bullish reaction from demand could support trend continuation
Trading Plan
Bias: Bullish Retracement Within an H4 Uptrend
Main Zone
• 216.60–217.10 → H4 POC + Order Block
Execution Idea
As long as GBPJPY continues respecting the H4 ascending channel and the Order Block, the current decline can be viewed as a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
The primary area to monitor is the H4 POC and Order Block around 216.60–217.10. If buyers produce a strong bullish reaction from this zone and reclaim short-term momentum, price may continue toward the recent highs before attempting another sweep of the Buy-Side Liquidity.
However, if price fails to hold this demand area, the probability of a deeper correction toward the lower H4 demand will increase.
Targets
→ TP1: 218.00 → Internal Resistance
→ TP2: 219.00 → Previous Swing High
→ TP3: 219.50 → Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL)
→ TP4: New Highs Above BSL
Invalidation
A confirmed H4 candle close below the H4 Order Block, followed by a loss of the ascending channel structure, would weaken the bullish continuation scenario and increase the probability of a deeper correction.
Key Insight
Trends rarely move in a straight line. Healthy pullbacks into demand often provide stronger confirmation than chasing momentum at the highs.
Key Question
Is GBPJPY simply retracing into value before another leg higher, or is this the first sign of a larger H4 correction? USD/JPY (1W) : Breakout or Double Top?USD/JPY (1W): Critical Multi-Year Resistance Test – Breakout or Double Top?
Market Overview
Ticker: USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen)
Timeframe: 1-Week (1W)
Current Price: 162.414
Sentiment: Neutral to Aggressively Bullish (Pending Structural Confirmation)
Technical Analysis
1. Major Resistance & Potential Double Top
On the weekly chart, USD/JPY has rallied back to its multi-year macro horizontal resistance line around 162.00 - 162.50 (marked by the horizontal blue line). This matches the significant peak established in mid-2024. Price action is currently consolidating tightly at this psychological barrier. A clean weekly close above this level signals a continuation of the secular bull market, while rejection confirms a major multi-year double top pattern.
2. Dynamic Trendlines & Key Support
The Upper Target Extension: An ascending dashed grey trendline connects the major historical swing highs. If a breakout above 162.50 is sustained, this dynamic line serves as the primary overhead target.
The Macro Floor: Major multi-month horizontal support rests firmly down at 140.00 (marked by the red horizontal line), which protected the downside across late 2023 and mid-2024.
3. Technical Indicators
RSI (14): Currently printing at 65.55, staying below the overbought threshold (70.00) but moving above its yellow moving average line (59.53). This shows steady, unexhausted bullish momentum heading straight into major resistance.
MACD (12, 26, 9): Both the MACD line (1.696) and the Signal line (1.590) are well above zero, reflecting a strong, long-term bullish regime. Crucially, the histogram is showing expansion back into green territory, indicating fresh buyer momentum is stepping back in.
Trading Setups & Scenario Planning
_____ Scenario A: The Bullish Breakout (Trend Continuation)
Trigger: A definitive weekly candle close above 162.50.
Target 1: 170.00 (Psychological round number).
Target 2: 180.00 (Intersect of the long-term ascending dashed grey trendline).
Invalidation/Stop: A drop and close back below 158.00 after a fakeout.
_____ Scenario B: The Bearish Rejection (Double Top Confirmation)
Trigger: An exhaustion pattern on the weekly frame (e.g., a long upper wick or bearish engulfing candle) spinning out of the 162.50 zone.
Target 1: 152.00 (Previous major structural inflection point).
Target 2: 140.00 (The major macro horizontal baseline floor).
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Will the Bank of Japan or shifting macro yields cap the Dollar here to seal a massive double top, or will the momentum break through to clear new historical highs? Let me know your technical setup in the comments!
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