Falling towards pullback support?Swissie (USD/CHF) is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback support and could bounce towards the 1st resistance at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 0.8193
1st Support: 0.8049
1st Resistance: 0.8367
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EUR/USD did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
−− Indonesian Rupiah declines as US Dollar remains stronger amid hawkish Fed tone
−− GBP/USD Price Forecast: Declines below 1.3400 as bearish momentum persists below 100-day SMA
−− USD/JPY Price Forecast: Signs of stabilization above 20-day EMA back more upside
53 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: −−− leaning bearish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) EURUSD Is About to Make a Strong Move Higher (1H)After the deep drops we have seen recently, it appears that sentiment around the euro may now be starting to shift. The bearish pressure has weakened, and the current structure suggests that the market could be approaching an important turning point.
From a wave-structure perspective, the bearish Diametric appears to have completed wave C, or we may currently be very close to the final stages of this Diametric structure. This makes the current area particularly interesting, as a shift in momentum could potentially lead to a stronger move to the upside.
Considering the current position of wave G within the Diametric, there are two possible scenarios to watch. EURUSD could start moving higher from the current levels, or we may first see a pullback toward the green zone marked on the chart. If price reacts positively from that area, it could provide a potential opportunity to look for a buy/long position.
If the bullish scenario develops as expected, the next potential targets are the levels marked on the chart. I will be watching the price reaction around the green zone and looking for confirmation before considering an entry rather than chasing the move.
Targets: 1.15160$ _ 1.15374$
For now, the bullish scenario remains valid as long as the invalidation level holds. A 4-hour candle close below the marked invalidation level would invalidate this analysis and indicate that the current structure needs to be reassessed.
As always, proper risk management is important, especially around key reversal zones.
EUR/USD Maintains Bearish MomentumEUR/USD OANDA:EURUSD struggled to sustain a technical rebound from the mid-1.1400s (its lowest level since late July) and weakened toward the 1.1475 area at the start of the new trading week on Monday, September 21, 2026.
The Euro's weakness was driven by the escalating hybrid war waged by Russia against NATO member states, combined with the strengthening of the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset following Houthi missile strikes on Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia.
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✅ NATO-Russia Hybrid War & Christine Lagarde's Speech Today
Two key factors are overshadowing the Euro's outlook:
- ⚡Emmanuel Macron's Warning on Russian Hybrid Threats: French President Emmanuel Macron and senior European officials have warned of increasing Russian cyber operations, sabotage, drone activity, and missile attacks targeting NATO nations that support Ukraine.
- ⚡ECB Tightening Speculation & Christine Lagarde's Speech: The ECB has warned that inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are proving more persistent than anticipated. This situation increases the likelihood of a benchmark interest rate hike at the ECB's October meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver a speech tonight to provide forward guidance on future monetary policy.
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✅ Price Action Analysis (Daily Timeframe)
The D1 structure confirms a continuing bearish macro structure, characterized by the formation of lower highs.
Following a recovery rally from the key "Lower Low" (LL) floor near the 1.13547 green line, EUR/USD surged to a peak of 1.17114. However, this peak failed to break through the upper major supply zone (1.17962), resulting in the formation of a macro "Lower High" (LH).
At the 1.14748 price level, recent daily price action has been dominated by impulsive, large-bodied bearish (red) candles that broke through the horizontal support line at 1.15574. The price is currently consolidating just above the local Demand Zone / SBR area in the 1.14400 – 1.14600 range.
✅ Key Zones:
- ⚡Resistance / Supply Zone (SBR): The range around the green line at 1.15574 (SBR area & nearest local resistance) and the green lines at 1.17114 – 1.17962 (top gray box / Major Supply Zone).
- ⚡Support / Demand Zone: The range of 1.14400 – 1.14600 (middle gray box / local Demand Zone) and the green line at 1.13547 (bottom gray box / Major Demand Zone / Structural Low).
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✅ Elliott Wave Analysis
Mapping the wave cycle movements on the Daily timeframe:
- ⚡Wave Structure:
The rise from the 1.13547 low to the 1.17114 high is interpreted as the formation of a corrective Wave B (or a macro Wave 2).
- ⚡Current Status:
The impulsive decline from the 1.17114 high—which broke the 1.15574 level and has now reached 1.14748—confirms the unfolding of an impulsive bearish Wave C (or macro Wave 3).
- ⚡Projection:
Price action is projected to complete this impulsive Wave C push by breaking through the local floor at 1.14400 and traversing the LVN zone, aiming for a full test of the Major Demand Zone stronghold around the 1.13547 green line. USDCHF – Potential Move UpOn the higher timeframe (3D) , the larger structure of USDCHF shows a completed ABC correction.
Wave A was completed in July 2023 and developed as a Leading Diagonal. This was followed by a large Triangle pattern forming Wave B , which was completed in January 2025.
From there, USDCHF developed a strong five-wave impulse to the downside, forming Wave C . This is an important confirmation of the larger structure, as Wave C needs to unfold with an impuslive character.
The fifth wave of Wave C eventually completed in February 2026, and since then, USDCHF has been developing a corrective move to the upside.
The current correction is taking the form of a complex W-X-Y-X-Z structure, with the final Z wave currently in progress.
On the lower timeframe (8H) , we can see the internal structure of this correction more clearly.
The W-X-Y-X portion appears to be completed, leaving the final Z wave to the upside.
The current Z wave is developing as a W-X-Y structure. Wave W is currently unfolding as an ABC correction, with Wave A and B already completed. This leaves us in the final Wave C to the upside.
The subwaves are indicating that a short-term correction could develop from the current area before another push higher potentially completes Wave C of W and thats exactly where we could be looking for another trade .
Additional confluence comes from a bullish MACD cross on the 3D timeframe and Seasonality , which is also pointing towards further upside into the end of November, which would fit well with the expected completion of Wave Z.
The last time we covered USDCHF here on TradingView, the structure resulted in a successful trade. The current Elliott Wave structure is now presenting another interesting setup to watch.
This is a scenario based on structure and confirmation its not just a prediction. The count remains subject to change if the market invalidates the current structure.
Long
