AUDTHB Eyes China and PPIMarket Analysis: AUDTHB trades with a steady-to-bullish profile in the short term, driven by the broad dollar sell-off post-US CPI data. On the regional front, macroeconomic data from China printed a mixed picture; while Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.3%, key industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures managed to beat market expectations. This suggests that Chinese manufacturing and domestic demand remain resilient, offering structural tailwinds for the AUD given China’s status as Australia’s largest trading partner. Volatility may re-escalate tonight surrounding the US PPI releases, and a positive start in the Thai equity market remains a tactical downside risk.
Technical Outlook : Bullish Bias. The technical setup shows a robust, sequential advance, establishing a well-defined Higher High (HH) and Higher Low (HL) pattern, confirming that bulls are firmly in control of the market direction. However, price action is currently micro-extended as it approaches a major psychological and structural resistance zone at 23.40–23.43, increasing the probability of immediate intraday profit-taking. The RSI is currently trading within the Overbought zone, and while the MACD remains positive, its histogram is showing mild signs of exhaustion. If the price manages to clear and hold above the 23.40–23.43 cluster, the next target window shifts to 23.42–23.45. Failure to sustain this breakout will likely trigger a pullback toward the 23.35–23.32 support area, which represents a critical zone to preserve the current uptrend structure.
Support : 23.35 – 23.32
Resistance : 23.40 – 23.43
Target : 23.42 – 23.45
Cut Loss : 23.30
AI Trading - EURUSD H1 Bullish OB + FVG Formed, Awaiting Deeper This is kieu_le's strategy. The AI read and understood kieu_le's strategy and marked it up automatically on the chart.
Strategy
Find bullish/bearish OB on M30 and H3 timeframes, then mark that zone and wait for price to touch the OB zone. Example: if it's a bullish OB on M30, drop to M1 timeframe and look for a candlestick pattern where "the prior candle's high is lower than the next candle's close" — mark this as zone 1. Continue looking for a bullish FVG — mark this as zone 2. Wait for price to return and retest zone 1 or zone 2 while simultaneously forming the same candlestick pattern (prior candle's high lower than next candle's close), then enter the trade with stop-loss placed 10 pips below the prior candle. Do the reverse for a bearish OB. If price touches the OB on the H3 timeframe, drop to the M5 timeframe and look for the same pattern.
Analysis
Applied the strategy's process, but the data provided is only H1 (used as a proxy for M30/H3) with no M1/M5 data available, so the final entry-trigger step cannot be verified — hence neutral rather than guessing.
Step 1 - Find OB on higher TF (H1 as M30/H3 proxy): On 2026-07-14 12:00 a very strong bullish candle appears (open 1.14066 → high 1.14628 → close 1.14460, volume 22670, far above average) breaking the prior 1.1390-1.1410 range. The last bearish candle before this impulse is the 10:00 candle (open 1.14010, high 1.14016, low 1.13910, close 1.13918) → this is the bullish OB, zone 1.13910–1.14016.
Step 2 - Find the accompanying bullish FVG: comparing candles 11:00→12:00→13:00, the 11:00 high (1.14094) is below the 13:00 low (1.14415) → creating a bullish FVG gap of 1.14094–1.14415, sitting just above the OB.
Step 3 - Wait for price to retest zone 1 (OB) or 2 (FVG): After the impulse, price peaked at 1.14628, then pulled back to 1.14152-1.14162 (07-14 20:00-21:00), then recovered to 1.14403 (currently 1.1438). So price has only retested the lower part of the FVG (around 1.1415-1.1420) but not the full FVG, and has NOT touched the bullish OB zone (1.13910–1.14016) at all.
Step 4 - Entry confirmation: per the strategy, once price touches zone 1 or 2, drop to M1 (for M30 OB) or M5 (for H3 OB) to find the "prior candle's high lower than the next candle's close" momentum pattern, then enter with SL 10 pips below the prior candle. No M1/M5 data is available, so this final trigger condition cannot be confirmed even though price is approaching the FVG zone.
=> Conclusion: The bullish OB + FVG setup is clearly formed and price is approaching the zone of interest, but (a) price hasn't fully tagged the OB yet, and (b) M1/M5 data needed to confirm the trigger candle and precise SL is missing. Therefore bias = neutral, waiting for price to reach deeper into the OB zone (1.13910-1.14016) or the upper FVG before checking the lower timeframe.
Not financial advice. Bearish breakout setup?GBP/CAD is rising toward the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse toward the pullback support.
Pivot: 1.8891
1st Support: 1.8770
1st Resistance: 1.9035
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party. EURTHB Awaits PPI and Euro DataMarket Analysis: EURTHB is poised to trade with a steady-to-bullish undertone in the short term. The lower-than-expected US CPI print fueled an immediate rally in EURUSD, creating a direct positive spillover effect for EURTHB. Today, market participants will focus on the Eurozone’s May Industrial Production data; any positive surprises could validate stabilizing regional economic growth and provide additional momentum for the Euro. Nevertheless, the ultimate short-term directional driver will depend heavily on the US PPI and Core PPI outcomes tonight, which will alter US Dollar dynamics and Baht volatility. A positive opening in the Thai stock market is noted as an immediate downside risk.
Technical Outlook: Sideway to Bullish. The technical layout reflects a steady recovery process, keeping the broader uptrend structure intact and confirming that buyers maintain an active advantage. However, the price is currently pressing into a heavy supply zone near the 38.30–38.33 resistance cluster, which may spark near-term profit-taking. The RSI is hovering close to the Overbought boundary, while the MACD remains positive but displays a flattening histogram, confirming a minor loss in upward speed. A clean breakout and consolidation above the 38.30–38.33 cluster will unlock further extensions toward 38.36–38.38. Conversely, failure to clear this barrier will likely lead to a shallow technical retracement toward the key 38.23–38.20 support zone, which must be protected to prevent a structural breakdown.
Support : 38.23 – 38.20
Resistance : 38.30 – 38.33
Target : 38.36 – 38.38
Cut Loss : 38.19 Falling towards overlap support?EUR/AUD is falling towards the pivot, which acts as an overlap support and could bounce toward the 1st resistance, which is also an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 1.63205
1st Support: 1.6250
1st Resistance: 1.64437
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party. USDTHB Awaits PPI DataUSDTHB is expected to maintain a steady-to-bullish bias in the short term. Even though the June US headline CPI cooled to 3.5% (below the market consensus of 3.8%), signaling a slowdown in consumer inflationary pressures, market attention shifts today to the US PPI and Core PPI data to gauge price trends in the manufacturing sector
. Concurrently, geopolitical frictions between the US and Iran—coupled with safety concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz—have driven crude oil prices higher, posing a long-term upside risk to inflation. A higher-than-expected PPI print could reinforce the narrative that the Fed will delay interest rate cuts, lending short-term support to the greenback. Meanwhile, a positive opening in the Thai stock market this morning could provide near-term dynamic support for the dollar against the Baht.
Technical Outlook: Sideway to Bullish. The short-term price structure exhibits a Sideway to Bullish characteristic after recovering from the 33.37 support and returning to the Fibonacci 0.618 level (33.48). However, the price remains capped below the critical 33.50–33.55 resistance cluster, requiring a fresh influx of buying volume to confirm a structural breakout. The RSI has eased to 49 after approaching the Overbought territory, showing a temporary deceleration in buying momentum. The MACD stays below the signal line with a negative histogram; though selling pressure is waning, a definitive bullish reversal signal has yet to materialize. A decisive move and consolidation above the 33.50–33.52 zone will open the upside to test the 33.54–33.56 resistance range. On the downside, failure to clear 33.50–33.52 may trigger profit-taking, risking a retracement to the 33.44–33.40 support zone.
Support : 33.44 – 33.40
Resistance : 33.50 – 33.52
Target : 33.54 – 33.56
Cut Loss : 33.39 Why This EURUSD Bear Flag Pattern Could Liquidate MillionsEURO / U.S. DOLLAR 🌍
The macro narrative heading into tonight is completely dominated by the high-stakes US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and the impending congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. Interestingly, general online sentiment is leaning heavily toward a weaker dollar, expecting easing headline figures to soften the Fed's resolve. However, this retail consensus is creating a crowded trade scenario that leaves the market ripe for a massive liquidity hunt. With underlying geopolitical safe-haven bids structural supporting the Greenback, any sticky core inflation print will serve as the perfect catalyst to catch retail traders off guard and spark a violent reversal.
We are seeing a dominant bearish markdown phase on the H4 frame, even as the market toys with a minor corrective ascending parallel channel 📈. Widespread community chatter remains stubbornly optimistic about a bullish recovery, but the technical structure suggests retail is simply being trapped inside a classic Wyckoffian distribution or bear flag pattern. The user markings on the chart cleanly map out the ascending channel's vulnerabilities, highlighting a formal Break of Structure (BoS) as price begins to slip through the floor. According to Dow Theory, the primary trend remains firmly down, meaning this minor upward behavior is nothing more than a corrective mechanism creating premium pricing for institutional short expansion.
Key Zone: The primary point of confluence sits precisely at the 1.14000 psychological handle, directly aligning with the lower boundary of the parallel channel 📉. From an Auction Market Theory perspective, this area marks the boundary of the current balance zone, where the rolling VWAP and critical volume profile nodes form a firm wall of dynamic overhead resistance.
We are currently trading at a crucial inflection point near the 1.13922 level, resting just beneath the channel's breakdown point. I am actively watching for a 'run on liquidity' to sweep the late buyers who have been vocal across various social forums, cleaning them out before the real extension begins 🧹. If the CPI data release prints in favor of a stronger US dollar, it will trigger an aggressive structural shift, making a clean retest of the broken channel floor into the New York session highly likely.
My Trade Plan 🎯
Bias: Short. I am maintaining strict discipline and waiting for the high-impact data event to clear the noise before executing.
Entry Protocol: I am looking to sell into the New York session tonight if the CPI data release supports the US dollar. The trigger will be a clean H4 acceptance below the parallel channel, followed by a verified retest and rejection of the 1.14000 confluence zone to confirm institutional order flow is driving the markdown.
Long
