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Morning Market Watch (17 sept 2026)Pairs on watch include: USDCAD: On the lager time frame price is well position for sells continuation. with price completing a 123 bearish structure. Price closed above the structure and appears to be correcting. Price can also continue with the buys from this consolidation. If it is sells i'll be looking for price to break back in then watch for flags to the downside. EURUSD: Price has been selling for a wile yesterday we had large bearish momentum kick in from FOMC. What i'm waiting to see is some consolidation then see if we can continue with the sells. GBPUSD: Same as EURUSD, i'm waiting for consolidations to the downside.
by muhiafelix
EUR/USD ($EURUSD) Daily: Bearish BreakdownEUR/USD ( OANDA:EURUSD ) Daily: Bearish Breakdown Below 200-EMA Projects -1.01% Extension Toward 1.1353 Support Floor ### 🇪🇺🇺🇸 Euro / U.S. Dollar ( OANDA:EURUSD ) Daily Technical Matrix (Ref: EURUSD_2026-09-17_09-36-20.png) We are issuing an updated Daily (1D) macro structural study for the Euro vs. U.S. Dollar forex pair ( OANDA:EURUSD / OANDA). Following a clean rejection off the macro descending trendline (LTD), price action has suffered a decisive impulse lower, surrendering both trailing dynamic moving average anchors in a single bearish wave. The pair is trading at **1.14713 (+0.07%)**, consolidating right above the primary target expansion corridor following the loss of major support. --- ### 🔍 Technical Architecture & Level Roadmap: Our quantitative Daily framework isolates the critical dynamic moving averages, horizontal structural floors, and target downside parameters: 1. **Overhead Dynamic Supply & Rejection Nodes:** * **17-Period Dynamic Resistance (17-EMA):** **1.15692** (red line) — Trailing dynamic ceiling recently lost by buyers. * **200-Period Exponential Moving Average (200-EMA):** **1.15679** (purple line) — Core dynamic institutional trend baseline acting as key overhead supply following the breakdown. * **Macro Descending Trendline (LTD):** Primary diagonal resistance guide capping the entire macro recovery structure. * **Horizontal Overhead Ceilings:** **1.16843**, **1.17984**, **1.19181**, and **1.20778**. 2. **Downside Expansion Targets (Green Measurement Box):** * **Measured Downside Projection (-1.01% / -115.4 pips):** Direct trajectory targeting the lower demand cluster. * **Primary Target Support Belt:** **1.13538** and **1.13222** (red lines) — Core horizontal polarity support target zone. 3. **Macro Base Support Anchor:** * **Structural Floor Ceiling:** **1.11745** (red line) — Long-term macro range base. --- ### 🛡️ Strategic Operational Scenarios: * **Scenario A — Bearish Impulse Continuation Toward 1.1353 Target:** Continued price acceptance below the **1.15679 (200-EMA)** breakdown node confirms bearish momentum, expanding downward toward the **1.13538 – 1.13222** structural support floor (-115.4 pips projection). * **Scenario B — Dynamic Reclaim & Structure Invalidation:** Any relief bounce will face heavy supply at the **1.15679 (200-EMA)** and **1.15692 (17-EMA)** dynamic confluence. A daily close back above **1.16843** is required to invalidate the current short-term bearish outlook. ### 📊 Tactical Parameters Summary: * **Current Bias:** Bearish Breakdown / Rejection Continuation * **Dynamic Breakdown Zone (200-EMA / 17-EMA):** 1.15679 / 1.15692 * **Primary Downside Target (-1.01% Projection):** 1.13538 / 1.13222 * **Macro Horizontal Supply Ceilings:** 1.16843 / 1.17984 * **Macro Range Base:** 1.11745 --- 📊 **ChartPro Data** *FX Market Architecture, Dynamic Moving Averages & Systematic Risk Management.* ⚠️ **Disclaimer:** For educational and informational purposes only. This active market study represents a personal trading framework and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
Short
by ChartPro_Data
Euro Tech Setup: Breakdown Below Trend Line Opens Path to 1.1500Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current EURUSD (1H) chart structure. EURUSD previously rallied higher and formed a Rounding Top near the highs, where sellers rejected the upside and price turned around. Price then broke below the Trend Line and Seller Zone, shifting the short-term structure bearish. Currently, EURUSD is trading below the 1.1560 Seller Zone while holding above the 1.1500 Buyer Zone. The Rounding Top and recent breakdown suggest a possible continuation lower toward demand. As long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1560 Seller Zone and fails to reclaim the broken Trend Line, the bearish scenario remains valid. A continuation lower could push price toward the 1.1500 Buyer Zone (TP1). However, a breakout and close above 1.1560 would weaken the bearish outlook and increase the possibility of further upside. Please share this idea with your friends and click "Boost" 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
39
EURUSD: Sellers Test a Major Support ZoneEURUSD continues to trade under pressure after rejecting the 1.1660–1.1680 resistance region. The subsequent move lower broke through the previous 1.1600–1.1620 support structure and has brought price toward the 1.1450–1.1475 area. The current zone represents an important point of interaction on the 4H chart. A sustained reaction here could allow price to stabilise and bring 1.1500–1.1550 back into focus. Should sellers maintain control below the current support structure, the next significant area sits around 1.1380–1.1410. The broader 4H structure remains corrective. We would like to see how price reacts around 1.1450–1.1475, with continued acceptance below this area supporting the existing downside structure. Key Levels Support: 1.1450–1.1475 Resistance: 1.1500–1.1550 Major Resistance: 1.1600–1.1620 This Article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It does not consider the financial situation, needs, or objectives of any specific individual. Any reference to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Risk Warning: 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please refer to our full risk disclaimer on our website.
Short
by easyMarkets
# USDCAD Week W38-2026: Fed Hikes to 3.75%-4.00% and Canadian..# USDCAD Week W38-2026: Fed Hikes to 3.75%-4.00% and Canadian Dollar Slides to Weakest Since August 7, Bullish Trend Holds Above 1.39216 | 17 September 2026 **Reference data** | week 2026-W38 - Symbol: USDCAD - Week: 2026-W38 - Bias: bullish - Conviction: low - Regime: trending_up - FX implication: trend_follow - MTF alignment: all_bullish - VWAP weekly: 1.39011 - TrendSL weekly: 1.39216 - Thesis snapshot close: 1.39301 - Current market price: 1.39914 (as of 2026-09-17T07:41:00+00:00; source mt5:USDCAD:1m) - US 10Y yield: 5.0% - US 2Y yield: 4.67% - US 10Y real yield: 2.62% - DXY: 99.914; intraday high 100.066; weekly VWAP 99.325; weekly TrendSL near 99.922 ## L0 - Regime Identification The immediate catalyst is the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision to raise its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote, citing still-elevated inflation. Sixteen of eighteen policymakers projected at least one additional 25-basis-point increase before the end of 2026 -- a forward guidance signal that carries weight because it means the tightening cycle is not yet complete, keeping USD demand structurally supported. The direct market reaction was visible: USDCAD reached 1.3994 as the Canadian dollar fell roughly 0.5% to its weakest level since August 7. Compounding CAD's weakness, Canadian housing starts printed at 229,046 against an expectation of 240,000, and while Bank of Canada minutes acknowledged near-term inflation risks, there was no offsetting hawkish catalyst from Ottawa. The regime remains trending up, consistent with last week's posture, and the price action following the Fed decision reinforces rather than disrupts that structure. ## L1 - Driver Stack The bullish case rests on a layered set of forces, not all of equal weight: -> ** Fed-BoC rate differential, hawkish Fed lean.** The rate differential -- the gap between what the Fed pays relative to the Bank of Canada -- is the primary driver. A wider positive differential attracts capital toward USD-denominated assets, mechanically pressuring USDCAD higher. With sixteen of eighteen Fed members penciling in further hikes and the BoC offering no comparable hawkish pivot, this gap is widening, not narrowing. -> **Multi-timeframe technical alignment (bullish).** Daily, weekly, and monthly structures are all pointing the same direction. When all timeframes agree, the signal quality is high -- it means pullbacks are more likely absorbed than reversed. -> **Retail positioning contrarian lean.** As of September 17 via FXSSI, 70% of retail accounts tracked are short USDCAD with only 30% long. When the crowd is heavily positioned against the prevailing trend, their collective stop-losses and forced covering can accelerate moves in the trend direction. This is context, not a standalone trigger -- the broker sample does not represent the full FX market. -> **COT positioning bullish lean.** Commitment of Traders data leans bullish for USD. Caveat: the brief does not specify the exact report week, release date, or net-position figure, so this should be read as directional evidence, not a precise citable statistic. -> **Bearish CAD macro data.** Weak housing starts and no hawkish shift in BoC communication remove potential CAD-supportive catalysts. -> ** TGA decline and liquidity dynamics.** The Treasury General Account fell roughly 12% over four weeks to approximately $843.7 billion (FRED, as of September 9). A shrinking TGA injects reserves into the banking system, which historically carries a modest bearish USD causal weight -- it partially offsets the hawkish Fed signal and is one reason conviction remains low rather than high. -> ** WTI oil direction.** US crude settled 3.2% lower, which in isolation removes a key CAD support pillar (oil revenues underpin Canadian external balances). However, if oil stages a sustained recovery, it could override the bullish USD bias on this pair -- this is the most important condition to monitor weekly. ## L2 - Macro Snapshot The US yield structure is unambiguously tight. The 10Y yield sits at 5.0%, the 2Y at 4.67%, and the 10Y real yield -- which strips out inflation expectations to show what investors actually earn in purchasing-power terms -- stands at 2.62%. A real yield of that magnitude is historically significant: it makes holding USD assets genuinely rewarding after inflation, which draws sustained foreign demand for dollars. The 2Y-10Y spread being only 33 basis points (a near-flat curve) tells you the market believes the Fed is close to -- but not yet at -- the end of the cycle, consistent with the 16-of-18 projection for at least one more hike. On the liquidity side, the Fed's balance-sheet proxy (total assets minus TGA minus overnight reverse repo) stood at approximately $5,896 billion as of September 9, rising about $96.7 billion over four weeks (FRED: WALCL/WDTGAL/RRPONTSYD). This expansion is a broad liquidity-supportive signal for risk assets, but it is not order-book depth and does not translate directly into a USD directional call. SOFR printed at 3.64% against IORB of 3.65%, a spread of roughly -1 basis point -- funding markets are functioning normally, with no stress signal visible (FRED, September 15). The CNN Fear and Greed index at 26/100 and VIX at 16.01 (yfinance, September 17) describe US equity sentiment rather than FX positioning. Fear in equities can sometimes create mild USD safe-haven demand, but neither reading is a mechanical FX trigger -- they are background context only. ## L3 - Technical Structure As of Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 07:41 UTC (source: mt5:USDCAD:1m, near-realtime), USDCAD is trading at 1.39914. The thesis snapshot close referenced in the analysis was 1.39301. Price at 1.39914 is above the weekly VWAP at 1.39011 by approximately 90 pips. VWAP -- the volume-weighted average price for the week -- acts as a center-of-gravity benchmark: price holding above it means buyers have been in control of the average transaction for the week, and any dip toward it would represent a mean-reversion opportunity for trend followers rather than a structural break. Price at 1.39914 is also above the weekly trend stop-loss level at 1.39216 by approximately 70 pips. This level is the structural anchor of the bullish regime: as long as price stays above it on a weekly closing basis, the trend is technically intact. Multi-timeframe alignment is fully bullish (daily, weekly, monthly), which is the highest-quality signal the technical picture offers. The absence of divergence across timeframes reduces the likelihood of a sudden regime flip without warning. ## L4 - Intermarket Cross-Check The updated DXY chart shows 99.914 after an intraday high of 100.066. Price is above weekly VWAP at 99.325 but remains just below weekly TrendSL near 99.922. That reduces the earlier tension with bullish USDCAD and confirms stronger dollar momentum, while the TrendSL test shows that full bullish structural confirmation has not yet occurred. USDCAD now has support from both the bilateral rate backdrop and CAD-specific weakness, while DXY's recovery adds a broader USD confirmation that was missing at the start of the week. A sustained move back below the post-FOMC DXY recovery would remove that extra tailwind and return the pair to relying more heavily on CAD weakness. The 3.2% drop in WTI to $81.43 per barrel is directly relevant because oil is Canada's largest export commodity. Lower oil prices mechanically weaken Canadian external revenues and reduce demand for CAD -- this observation reinforces the current directional lean. A reversal in oil would change this calculus. ## L5 - Event Risk Events to watch this week and over the 3-week horizon: -> Fed speakers and any additional 2026 rate path commentary following the September 16 decision -> Bank of Canada communications -- any shift in tone toward more aggressive tightening would be the clearest single-event threat to the bullish structure -> WTI crude price trajectory -- a sustained rally above recent levels would be the most likely macro force to override the current directional lean -> Canadian economic data releases (employment, inflation, retail sales if scheduled) -- weak data would reinforce CAD softness; a strong surprise could provide temporary CAD recovery -> US inflation and labor data -- any data materially undercutting the case for further Fed hikes would compress the rate differential | Scenario | Probability | |---|---| | Fed guidance holds, oil stays soft, USDCAD extends above 1.3994 | Moderate | | BoC turns unexpectedly hawkish, CAD recovers, pair pulls back toward 1.3921 | Lower | | Oil rallies sharply, CAD outperforms, thesis pressure increases | Moderate | | Broad USD selloff (DXY deterioration accelerates), pair loses 1.3921 | Lower | ## L6 - Conviction Scorecard The overall bias is bullish, but conviction is deliberately kept low. The rate backdrop and technical alignment point in the same direction, and DXY now provides momentum confirmation above weekly VWAP. The remaining conflicts are the TGA drain carrying a partial bearish USD causal weight, DXY still testing weekly TrendSL, and oil's potential for reversal. The bullish direction is clear; the risk-reward clarity for sizing is not. ## L7 - Time Horizon **Near-term (days):** The pair is reacting directly to the Fed hike and the CAD's post-decision weakness. Price holding above 1.39216 on a daily close basis keeps the near-term structure intact. The 1.3994 level reached on September 17 becomes an important near-term reference -- sustained trade above it would be a continuation signal, while failure to hold it could invite short-term consolidation. **3-week window (the stated timeline):** Over this horizon, the thesis relies on the rate differential remaining in USD's favor, oil staying soft or declining further, and no hawkish pivot from the BoC. The multi-timeframe alignment provides structural support for continuation, but any one of those three conditions changing would materially reduce the case. **Medium-term (beyond 3 weeks):** If sixteen policymakers are correct and the Fed delivers at least one more hike by year-end 2026, the rate differential widens further, which would extend the structural bullish case. However, medium-term views carry more uncertainty because oil, global risk appetite, and BoC policy can all shift in ways not yet visible in current data. ## L8 - Invalidation Conditions -> A weekly close below the TrendSL weekly at 1.39216 would constitute bullish structure invalidation -- those already holding long exposure should reassess their risk against this level; those not yet positioned should wait to see whether this invalidation level is tested before considering entry. -> If price is sustained below the weekly VWAP at 1.39011, short-term momentum would be running against the thesis -- those with existing exposure should factor this into their risk assessment, as it would signal that the average buyer for the week is underwater. --- *This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.* #USDCAD #ForexTrading #USD #CAD #FedReserve #InterestRates #RateDifferential #DXY #BankOfCanada #WTIcrude #CurrencyMarkets #MacroTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexAnalysis #WeeklyOutlook
by IntermarketEdgeFX2026
EURUSD - Technical Analysis Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the EURUSD price declined significantly, approaching the 1.1455 level. Currently, the price is attempting a temporary bullish correction toward the 1.1505 pivot level before resuming its downward trend toward the support targets at 1.1452 and subsequently 1.1432. However, if the price breaks above the 1.1505 pivot point and confirms a 4-hour (4H) candle close above it, the trend will turn bullish toward the key resistance level at 1.1530. Resistance Levels: 1.1530 – 1.1560 Support Levels: 1.1452 – 1.1432
Short
by EvarMayi
EUR/USD: The Fed Hikes and Signals More!The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, 16 September, by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4%, its first hike since 2023 and after five consecutive meetings on hold. The decision came by a unanimous vote of all twelve members, following a clear split at the July meeting. The statement affirmed that inflation "remains elevated" and that the action taken "will support the return of inflation to the Committee's 2% objective sooner", wording notably more hawkish than its predecessor, after the removal of the reference to supply and energy shocks as an explanation for price pressures. At the press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stressed that the primary focus is on price stability, describing inflation as far too high and persistent at this level for far too long, and noting that inflation risks are tilted to the upside while labour-market risks appear balanced. The most significant element for markets, however, came from the dot plot: the median projection for the policy rate at end-2026 rose to 4.1% from 3.8% in the June forecasts, implying one additional quarter-point hike over the remainder of the year, with 16 of 18 officials projecting at least one hike and four projecting two. Projections also point to core inflation reaching 3.4% in 2026 and 2.5% next year, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. This fed through to pricing immediately: the CME FedWatch tool now shows a probability of close to 90% for an additional 25-basis-point hike before year-end, the two-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.73%, and the dollar index climbed to 100.33, its highest level since 31 July, while US equities declined. With the ECB's deposit rate still at 2.50%, the yield differential continues to widen in the dollar's favour, pushing EUR/USD to trade near its lowest levels in seven weeks. Technical Analysis EUR/USD is trading within a downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, following its break of the ascending structure marked by the two black lines. In the most recent leg, price broke the prior low at 1.15231 and printed a new lower low at 1.14544, confirming that bearish momentum remains intact. Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool from the last lower high (marked by the red arrow) to the last lower low (marked by the green arrow), price may see a corrective rebound toward the supply zone highlighted by the red rectangle, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.15402 and the 88% level at 1.15505. This zone is a candidate area for price to meet negative pressure that returns it to the downtrend, should bearish momentum persist. The key resistance to watch is the 1.15636 level, which represents the last higher low formed. As long as price continues to trade below this level without printing a new high above it, the bearish scenario remains the more likely one. A close above 1.15636 would weaken this scenario and open the door to a broader corrective advance.
by CFI
EURCAD Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationEURCAD is showing signs of a bullish recovery after holding the strong support area around 1.6039–1.6020. Price has built a series of higher lows and recently pushed strongly upward, breaking above the 1.6070–1.6080 key level, indicating improving bullish momentum. The current price is now retesting the 1.6080–1.6090 zone. If buyers successfully defend this area and maintain the recent bullish structure, another move toward the 1.6120 resistance zone could develop, with the major upside target around 1.6140. However, a rejection from the current key level could trigger a pullback toward 1.6057 and potentially the 1.6039 strong support. A sustained break below 1.6039 would weaken the bullish setup and bring 1.6020 back into focus. Overall bias: Bullish recovery, but confirmation around the current key level remains important before the next upside expansion. your support means a lot! If you found this analysis useful, leave a Like and tell me your thoughts in the comments. Best of luck with your trading journey! 🚀
Long
by Pintu_sahu01
8
DeGRAM | NZDUSD remains under descending resistance📊 Technical Analysis ● NZDUSD remains inside a clear descending structure, with the major resistance line continuing to cap recovery attempts. Price is also trading below the broken support line, which is now acting as additional resistance and keeps the broader 1H structure bearish. ● The current rebound could extend toward the 0.5752–0.5764 resistance zone. If sellers defend this area, another decline toward the 0.5690–0.5700 target zone becomes the main scenario. A sustained breakout above resistance would weaken the bearish setup. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● The U.S. dollar remains supported after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% and signaled that further tightening may be needed as inflation remains elevated. Strong August U.S. retail sales also reinforced the picture of a resilient U.S. economy, adding support to the dollar. ● New Zealand’s latest GDP data came in slightly stronger than expected, with the economy expanding 0.2% in Q2 and 2.6% year over year. That provides some support to the NZD, but the kiwi remains under pressure against the stronger U.S. dollar following the Fed’s hawkish rate move. ✨ Summary ● Bearish continuation remains the main scenario while NZDUSD stays below 0.5752–0.5764; target 0.5690–0.5700. A confirmed breakout above resistance would invalidate the immediate bearish setup. Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
14
EURUSD 4H Liquidity Sweep Before the Bullish Move Fed Week Plan Hello traders, This week is all about the Fed. The EURUSD chart shows a clear liquidity structure, and I have a two scenario plan based on the FOMC outcome. Fundamental Picture Markets are pricing in a 70 percent probability of a rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. Recent inflation and employment data, along with the hawkish tone from the Fed Chair, have reinforced this expectation. The ECB has also raised rates by 25 basis points, but the Euro remains under pressure from a stronger dollar and slowing Eurozone growth. My Primary Scenario Bullish Before any meaningful bullish move, I expect the market to sweep the liquidity of early buyers who entered too soon. The key zone to watch is the demand area between 1.1500 and 1.1516. This is where early buyers likely placed their stops. If price dips into this zone and shows a clear rejection such as a bullish engulfing or long wick on H1, I will look for long entries. Entry After confirmation from the demand zone Stop Loss Below 1.1480 Target 1 1.1620 Target 2 1.1679 Target 3 1.1800 only if the Fed is dovish or pauses Invalidation 4H close below 1.1480 Alternative Scenario Bearish If the Fed delivers a firmly hawkish hike and price closes a 4H candle below 1.1560, my bullish view is invalidated. This would open the door for a move down toward 1.1472 and potentially 1.1350. My Personal View I am leaning bullish but waiting for the liquidity sweep. The market needs to collect the liquidity from early buyers before moving up. I will not enter before the FOMC decision. I will wait for the Fed to make its move, then look for a sweep into the demand zone and enter long on confirmation. Patience is key. Let the market come to you. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Tags EURUSD Forex FVG DemandZone Liquidity FederalReserve FOMC PriceAction TradingView
Long
by FXSMARTT