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USD/CAD 1.4020 – FIBO Ob | BEARISH SCENARIOUSD/CAD 1.4020 – FIBO key evel | BEARISH SCENARIO 📉 USD/CAD is maintaining its dominant bearish trend, with the price structure still intact and no clear reversal signals appearing. 🎯 Fibo Zone: 1.4020 When applying trend-following Fibonacci, the 0.5–0.618 retracement zone converges with the 1.4020 key level, creating a notable confluence zone. 🎯 Expected Scenario: If price retraces toward 1.4020 and shows signs of upside rejection or weakening buying pressure → favor a trend-following SELL. Bias: SELL – Bearish Trend Fibo Zone: 1.4020
Short
by hungminskfibotrung
USD/JPY × kurutologic: 6 Macro Scenarios & Key LevelsHey everyone, this is kurutologic. Today, I’m sharing my macro view and 6 potential mid-to-long-term scenarios for USD/JPY on the Daily chart. ■ Market Overview USD/JPY is currently bouncing off the recent support (green zone) after a solid downtrend from the highs. However, it's not a clear path up. Right above the current price, there's a massive cluster of heavy resistance. How price reacts to this overhead wall will dictate our next major macro trend. ■ The Key "Walls" to Watch Overhead Resistance (157.000 - 160.000) Just above us, we have a descending trendline, a Daily FVG, an Order Block (purple box), and the Point of Control (PoC). This is a heavy supply zone where institutional selling pressure is highly likely. Downside Support (153.600 - 150.850 / 148.000 - 145.680) Besides our current green support zone, there's another historical support tier below it. If price drops, expect strong buying interest in these areas. ■ The 6 Scenarios Based on these levels, I've mapped out 6 possible paths: ① Rejection at Trendline/FVG: Price hits the first layer of resistance and continues the downtrend. ② Rejection at OB/PoC: Price pushes a bit higher into the purple Order Block and PoC line, then faces a heavy rejection. ③ Support Breakdown: The current green support fails, sending price down to the deeper liquidity pool at 148-145. ④ Breakout & Pullback: Price manages to break through the massive overhead resistance, uses it as new support (higher low), and rallies toward the Weekly Resistance. ⑤ Rejection at the Top: Price reaches the historical Weekly Resistance but gets rejected again. ⑥ Macro Range: Price gets trapped between these heavy overhead and downside walls, creating a long-term choppy range. ■ Action Plan We are currently in a corrective bounce, but jumping in blindly right now is risky. Be patient and wait to see how price action reacts when it hits that heavy resistance above. Look for a clear reversal pattern or a decisive breakout before making your move. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always practice strict risk management. kurutologic
by kuruto_logic
GBP/USD H1: Bearish Continuation if 1.33397 BreaksGBP/USD remains under clear bearish pressure on the H1 timeframe following the latest Bank of England decision. The Bank Rate was maintained at 3.75%. Despite the relatively hawkish vote split, the pound experienced a sharp sell-off against the US dollar. Technical structure: • The H1 chart continues to form lower highs and lower lows. • Price remains below the key resistance levels. • Near-term resistance is located at 1.33709. • The main bearish invalidation level is 1.34047. • Higher H1 resistance levels are located at 1.34655 and 1.34915. • Key support is located at 1.33397. Primary bearish scenario: A confirmed H1 candle close below 1.33397, followed by a failed retest of this level as resistance, would support further bearish continuation. Alternative scenario: Before moving lower, price may recover toward 1.33709. A clear bearish rejection from this level would preserve the downside structure. Invalidation: A sustained H1 recovery above 1.34047 would invalidate the immediate bearish continuation scenario and open the way toward the higher resistance levels. This is a conditional market scenario, not an immediate trade signal. Confirmation and disciplined risk management remain essential. Educational analysis only — not financial advice.
Short
by Imeda_Market_Analysis
ATR, Volatility & Dynamic Risk-Reward (RR)If ATR tells us that a market has already used, for example, 70% of its average movement during a specific period, we should not automatically expect the market to continue moving another large distance without a reason. This applies to GBPJPY and to markets in general. The important point is that **RR should be related to the amount of movement the market is realistically capable of producing during a specific period**, rather than using a fixed RR such as 1:2 or 1:3 for every trade. For example, if the average movement of a market during a certain period is 100 pips and price has already moved 70 pips, then a significant portion of the expected range has already been consumed. The remaining realistic upside or downside may therefore be smaller. However, this raises an important question: **Why do some trades achieve RR of 1:3, 1:5, or even higher?** Is it because the market had not yet consumed most of its ATR? Or can certain conditions—such as a strong breakout, increased volatility, a liquidity expansion, or major news—cause the market to move significantly beyond its normal ATR? So perhaps the better question is not: **"What fixed RR should I use?"** but rather: **"How much movement is realistically available in the market during this specific period, and what conditions could cause that range to expand?"** In other words, RR should adapt to **ATR, volatility, the range already consumed, market structure, and the available price range**. This could explain why a 1:2 target may sometimes be realistic, while under different market conditions a trade can run to 1:3, 1:5, or much further.
by waseemunreal
AUD/CHF 4H – Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Bullish SetupBias: Bullish (Buy Limit Setup) Market Structure: Strong bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows on the 4H timeframe. Entry Zone: 4H Bullish Order Block / 71% Fibonacci OTE level at 0.58315. Stop Loss (SL): Fixed at the 0% Fibonacci level (swing low invalidation) at 0.58169. Take Profit (TP): Target 100% Fibonacci level / Buy-Side Liquidity at 0.58754. Plan: Waiting for price to complete its retracement into the demand zone to trigger the long order. Strictly rules-based setup with an optimized Risk-to-Reward ratio.
by hassan_2017
1
GBP/CHF 4H – Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Bullish SetupBias: Bullish (Buy Limit Setup) Market Structure: Strong bullish continuation following a clear sell-side liquidity sweep at the lower swing boundary. Entry Zone: 4H Bullish Order Block / Demand Zone around 1.09388. Stop Loss (SL): Below the major swing low structure at 1.08962. Take Profit (TP): External Buy-Side Liquidity pool at 1.10667. Plan: Waiting for price to retrace into the discount 4H demand zone before triggering the long position. High probability setup aligned with bullish order flow.
by hassan_2017
Don’t Chase the Trend — Let Price Come to YouA trend is not about chasing price; it’s about understanding where price is likely to react. Today’s market is another example of how price can move strongly in one direction, pull back into a meaningful area, and then continue the trend. The best opportunities are often not found at the top of an impulsive move, but after a correction when price returns to an area where buyers or sellers previously showed interest. Don’t chase the trend. Let the market come to you. Patience is what allows you to enter with better risk and let the trend do the work.
by waseemunreal
EUR/USD H1: Bearish Confirmation Below 1.14817This publication is a follow-up and post-analysis of my previous EUR/USD H1 idea. The original scenario anticipated a possible bearish rejection from the 1.15060–1.15250 resistance zone. Price did not reach that zone, so the original setup was not triggered. Instead, a lower local H1 resistance area formed around 1.14930–1.14980. Price rejected this area and an H1 candle subsequently closed below 1.14817, confirming the alternative bearish continuation scenario. Key levels: • Local H1 resistance: 1.14930–1.14980 • Bearish confirmation: H1 close below 1.14817 • First downside level: 1.14678 • Second downside level: 1.14518 • Alternative-scenario invalidation: sustained H1 recovery above 1.14980 This is a retrospective case study documenting how the market structure developed after the original publication. It is not a new entry signal or individual financial advice.
Long
by Imeda_Market_Analysis
CADJPY WeaknessCADJPY — CAD Weakness / JPY Strength Thesis I’m watching CADJPY to the short side, with Monday’s Canadian CPI print as the next important catalyst. The thesis is built around a growing divergence between the two currencies. CAD has previously held without a clear incentive for the Bank of Canada to tighten again, while the yen is beginning to strengthen into the next BOJ decision window. At the same time, ongoing trade pressure remains a headwind for CAD and makes sustained CAD strength harder to justify. I’m not looking to short simply because price is lower. I want to see fresh CAD weakness accompanied by momentum and acceptance below the current structure before treating the move as actionable. If that weakness confirms, the objective is to carry the thesis toward the next meaningful liquidity zone below. This may not be a short-duration move — the path could develop over several weeks, potentially into the next quarter, although price may travel there faster if momentum expands. What I’m watching: Canadian CPI on Monday evidence of renewed CAD weakness after the print continued JPY strength failure of CAD to reclaim the current resistance/decision zone momentum confirming the directional break Bias: Short CAD / Long JPY Conviction: Strong, but confirmation still required. The plan is established before the outcome. The market still has to earn the trade.
Short
by Coasyn
Bullish recovery underway?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce toward the 1st resistance, which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.3330 1st Support: 1.3258 1st Resistance: 1.3421 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Long
by IC
EURUSD MARKET ANALYSIS EURUSD is currently showing signs of a short-term recovery attempt after the recent bearish move. Price has reacted from the lower demand/support zone around 1.1520, where buyers have started to defend the area and slow the downside pressure. The current structure remains under pressure, but a successful reaction from support could allow EURUSD to form a short-term higher low and begin a recovery toward the nearby resistance zones. 📈 BULLISH SCENARIO — RECOVERY & CONTINUATION If price continues to hold above 1.1520–1.1530 and buyers regain momentum, a break above 1.1560 could strengthen the recovery and open the way toward: TP1: 1.1580 TP2: 1.1600 TP3: 1.1620–1.1640 A clean breakout and sustained hold above 1.1600 would provide stronger confirmation for a move toward the 1.1620–1.1640 supply/resistance area. KEY SUPPORT / INVALIDATION The 1.1520–1.1530 demand zone is the key support area to watch. If price loses this zone and sellers regain control, the bullish recovery scenario could weaken, with the market potentially continuing its bearish structure. MARKET VIEW EURUSD remains in a broader bearish structure, but the strong reaction from the demand zone gives the pair a short-term recovery bias. The main levels to watch are 1.1520–1.1530 support, followed by 1.1560, 1.1580 and 1.1600 resistance. your support means a lot! If you found this analysis useful, leave a Like and tell me your thoughts in the comments. Best of luck with your trading journey! 🚀
Long
by Rohan_analyst
8