USDCAD coils under a broken base. My short arms on the breakUSDCAD | Short swing setup (1D)
THE SETUP
USDCAD topped near 1.4247 in late June and has carved a rounded top, rolling over into a clean run of lower highs. Price is now pressing the 1.3950 base, the shelf it broke out from in mid-June. I am not short yet. This trade only arms if the base gives way.
CONFLUENCES
- Daily trend has flipped down: rounded top, lower highs off the 1.4247 peak
- 1.3950 is real structure: the June breakout base, now the line in the sand
- Momentum is with the move: a run of heavy red daily candles into the level
- Clean invalidation just above (1.4010), keeping RR to TP1 near 1.5
FUNDAMENTALS
CAD firmed after the Bank of Canada held at 2.25%, and a softer US inflation print has the dollar heading for a weekly loss. This is data-sensitive, but no BoC or Fed event lands before these levels are in play.
TRADE PLAN (conditional, marked on the chart)
Trigger: daily close below 1.3950. No close, no trade.
Entry: sell the retest of 1.3950 to 1.3965 from below.
Stop: 1.4010 (base reclaimed = idea wrong).
TP1: 1.3880, TP2: 1.3820, TP3: 1.3770.
Invalidation: a daily close back above 1.4010, or price never breaking 1.3950 within the window shown.
Are you fading the retest, or waiting to see 1.3950 break on volume first?
Follow for updates, posted on this idea as it plays out.
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan and manage risk. GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Downside Move in Focus📉 GBPUSD Daily Chart – Bearish Trading Perspective
GBPUSD is showing a bearish overall structure on the daily timeframe. Price remains beneath a descending trendline and has recently rejected from an important supply/resistance area, suggesting sellers are still defending higher prices. The latest move lower from the 1.3570 region reinforces the idea that rallies may continue to be sold unless price can reclaim and hold above the marked red zone. 🔻
The primary resistance area sits around 1.3550–1.3575, with a wider supply zone extending roughly into 1.3600–1.3700. This is the key bearish invalidation area: a strong daily close above it, especially above the descending trendline, would weaken the current short bias and could open the door for a move toward the prior highs.
🛡️ Support zones to watch
1.3340–1.3360: Near-term support and an important reaction area. Price may pause or produce a bounce here, but a clean daily break below it would favour further downside.
1.3180–1.3220: Main blue demand/support zone. This is the most important downside area on the chart and may attract buyers or profit-taking from short positions.
1.3139: First major bearish target, aligned with the marked strong-low area.
1.3030–1.3100: Deeper support zone and extended target if bearish momentum accelerates. 🎯
📌 Trade plan idea
The preferred approach is to remain patient and look for bearish confirmation rather than chasing price after a large move. Possible short setups could develop if price retraces into 1.3430–1.3500 and shows rejection, or if it revisits the stronger 1.3550–1.3575 red supply zone with bearish price action.
A second approach is a breakdown trade: wait for a convincing daily close below 1.3340, then look for a retest of that level as resistance before considering continuation shorts.
🎯 Potential targets
TP1: 1.3360 / 1.3340
TP2: 1.3220–1.3180 blue demand zone
TP3: 1.3139 strong-low target
Extended target: 1.3100–1.3030 if sellers remain in control
⚠️ Risk management
Keep risk controlled on every position. A sensible invalidation point for shorts is above the entry zone and, for wider swing setups, above 1.3575–1.3600. Avoid risking more than a small predefined percentage of account equity per trade, and consider moving the stop to breakeven after the first target is reached. If price closes decisively above the red zone and descending trendline, step aside—the bearish setup may no longer be valid. 🧠
Overall, the chart favours a sell-the-rally / bearish continuation mindset while price remains below the marked supply zone and trendline. The key battle will be around 1.3340: holding above it may create a temporary bounce, while breaking below it could expose the blue support area and the 1.3139 target. EURUSD Buy Idea | Trend Continuation SetupA promising bullish setup is developing on EURUSD as price approaches the 1.14506 support zone. This level is attracting attention due to its technical significance and has the potential to act as a strong foundation for a continuation of the upward trend. If buyers successfully defend this area and bullish confirmation appears, EURUSD may present an attractive long opportunity with favorable risk-to-reward potential.
Trade Setup
Direction: BUY 🟢
Buy Zone: 1.14506
Entry: Wait for bullish confirmation near the support level.
Stop Loss: Place below the recent swing low or according to your risk management strategy.
Take Profit: Target the next key resistance levels while maintaining a positive risk-to-reward ratio.
Technical Outlook
The overall market structure suggests that buyers are attempting to maintain control, and the 1.14506 level could serve as an important demand zone. A bullish rejection from this area, supported by increased buying momentum, may signal the beginning of the next upward move.
For additional confirmation, traders should monitor for:
A bullish engulfing or strong rejection candle.
Higher lows forming on lower timeframes.
A break above recent short-term resistance.
Increased buying volume or sustained bullish momentum.
Waiting for confirmation before entering the trade can help reduce the risk of false breakouts and improve the quality of the setup.
Risk Management
Successful trading depends not only on finding good entries but also on managing risk effectively.
Risk only a small percentage of your account on any single trade.
Always use a stop loss to protect your capital.
Consider taking partial profits as price reaches key resistance levels.
Move your stop loss to break even once the trade has progressed sufficiently in your favor.
Avoid overleveraging, especially during periods of increased market volatility.
Market Considerations
EURUSD is highly sensitive to major economic releases, central bank decisions, inflation data, employment reports, and geopolitical developments. Keep an eye on the economic calendar, as high-impact news events can significantly increase volatility and influence price direction.
Short
