EURJPY Daily Trade SetupThe EURJPY chart presents a constructive multi-timeframe bullish setup, supported by a constructive weekly Elliott Wave thesis on the higher timeframe. The weekly chart on the right shows price trending firmly higher within a rising channel, with the broader structure maintaining a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the advance appears to remain impulsive rather than exhausted, with the current consolidation likely representing a corrective pause within the broader bullish sequence. As long as price continues to hold above weekly channel support and the prior higher-low structure, the thesis remains that EURJPY is preparing for another upside leg toward the next Fibonacci extension zones.
On the H4 execution chart on the left, EURJPY is building a clear base above ascending trendline support after reclaiming the lower range. The recent consolidation appears to be forming a continuation structure, with price compressing beneath nearby resistance while maintaining a sequence of higher lows. This fits well with the weekly Elliott Wave view, as the H4 price action looks like a smaller corrective structure developing inside the larger bullish wave count. A short-term pullback or liquidity sweep into the rising support zone could therefore provide the next execution opportunity before continuation higher. The orange projection path suggests a potential dip, reclaim, and expansion phase, targeting the upper Fibonacci and channel resistance levels above.
The key bullish invalidation sits below the H4 ascending support and the recent major swing low. As long as EURJPY continues to hold that rising support structure, the broader thesis remains focused on upside continuation in line with the constructive weekly Elliott Wave count. A sustained break below the H4 higher-low base would weaken the execution setup and suggest a deeper retracement is underway, while a higher-timeframe break below weekly channel support would be required to challenge the broader bullish Elliott Wave thesis. **EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Liquidity Building Below Daily Resista
## Description
EUR/USD is currently trading inside a developing consolidation after an aggressive decline from the 1.1600 region.
The important question is not whether price appears “bullish” or “bearish” at its current location. The question is whether the recent buying represents genuine accumulation capable of changing delivery, or simply temporary support before the next bearish expansion.
### Fundamental context
The macroeconomic backdrop is becoming more supportive of EUR/USD, but the picture is not one-sided.
The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June and remains concerned that higher energy costs could prevent inflation from returning sustainably to target. The current expectation among economists is that the ECB will hold rates at its July meeting, while leaving the possibility of another increase in September open. ( )
At the same time, softer US inflation data has reduced the immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates again. June producer prices unexpectedly declined, weakening the dollar as traders adjusted their expectations for the Fed’s next move. ( )
This creates a potential shift in relative monetary-policy expectations:
* The ECB may remain restrictive because of energy-driven inflation risks.
* The Fed has more room to remain patient following softer inflation data.
* The resulting narrowing in expected policy divergence could support the euro.
However, higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical tension remain significant risks. Europe is more exposed to imported energy costs, while periods of uncertainty can simultaneously generate safe-haven demand for the US dollar. The fundamental environment therefore supports volatility rather than a simple one-directional euro trade. ( )
Recent FX strategy surveys also show that the broader weak-dollar view remains dominant, although an increasing number of strategists are expecting a smaller decline or a near-term dollar recovery. Dollar positioning therefore appears increasingly crowded and vulnerable to two-way corrections. ( )
### EXODUS technical perspective
From an EXODUS perspective, liquidity is not treated as a horizontal line that price is automatically programmed to attack.
Liquidity is a **condition** created by positioning, available counterparties and the way orders are being introduced into the market.
Following the bearish expansion, EUR/USD began printing repeated lower rejection wicks between approximately **1.1330 and 1.1380**. These wicks show bullish orders being injected into the market and an increasing willingness to absorb selling pressure.
However, bullish participation alone does not confirm bullish control.
Price is still trading beneath the **1.1460–1.1480 bearish array**. This area represents the immediate boundary between accumulation and continuation. Buyers have reacted from lower prices, but they have not yet demonstrated the ability to consume the opposing orders above them.
The highs around **1.1475–1.1480** must be removed before I consider the daily delivery structurally bullish.
### Weekly bias
My bias is **conditionally bullish**, not blindly bullish.
A sustained displacement through **1.1480**, followed by acceptance above the current bearish array, would suggest that the recent bullish injections are transitioning into genuine control.
That would open the path toward the main daily pocket between approximately:
**1.1528 and 1.1575**
This is the next meaningful area in which I would expect price to encounter opposing liquidity and reassess whether further upside can be facilitated.
Until the confirmation level is removed, EUR/USD remains inside a broader consolidation and both sides of the range remain vulnerable.
### Bullish scenario
For bullish continuation, I want to see:
1. Selling pressure continue to be absorbed above the recent lows.
2. A decisive expansion through **1.1480**.
3. Acceptance above the bearish array rather than an immediate rejection.
4. Lower-timeframe retracements holding as bullish arrays.
5. Continued delivery toward **1.1528–1.1575**.
The preferred day-trading opportunity would not be to buy directly into resistance. It would be to wait for the resistance to be consumed and then assess whether a retracement offers continuation from a newly established bullish array.
### Bearish scenario
If price repeatedly trades into **1.1460–1.1480** but cannot consume the available offers, the upper wicks may represent failed acceptance rather than preparation for a breakout.
A bearish reaction from this area could return price toward:
* **1.1380**
* **1.1350**
* Sell-side liquidity around **1.13246**
A meaningful break beneath **1.13246** would invalidate the developing bullish thesis and indicate that the lower injections were insufficient to change the dominant bearish delivery.
### Execution framework
The objective is not to predict the next candle.
The objective is to observe which side demonstrates the ability to:
* Absorb opposing pressure.
* Consume the next array.
* Maintain acceptance after displacement.
* Defend the origin of the new delivery.
Below **1.1480**, bullish intent is visible but unconfirmed.
Above **1.1480**, with acceptance, the daily pocket becomes the primary draw.
Below **1.13246**, the bullish thesis fails and bearish continuation becomes the higher-probability condition.
**Liquidity provides the opportunity. Delivery provides the confirmation. Execution comes last.**
*This analysis is educational and reflects a conditional market framework, not financial advice.*
GBPAUD: Bullish Push to 1.970?FX:GBPAUD is eyeing a bullish continuation on the 1-hour chart , with price rebounding from support after recent consolidation, converging with a potential entry zone that could ignite upside momentum if buyers defend amid volatility. This setup suggests a rally opportunity in the current structure, targeting higher resistance levels with more than 1:2 risk-reward .🔥
Entry between 1.895–1.907 (entry from current price with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 1.970 . Set a stop loss at a daily close below 1.878 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:2 . Monitor for confirmation via a bullish candle close above entry with rising volume, leveraging the pair's momentum near support.🌟
Fundamentally , GBPAUD is trading around 1.901 in early July 2026.
For the British Pound, one of the most important releases this week is the UK GDP (Q2 Preliminary) and Manufacturing Production data (expected around July 8-10). Stronger-than-expected growth would support GBP.
For the Australian Dollar, the key event is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (likely released July 7-8) and Retail Sales data, where a dovish RBA tone or weak consumer spending would weigh on AUD.
Overall, resilient UK data versus potential softness in Australian figures could favor bullish momentum in GBPAUD this week. 💡
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry (Long):
1.8950 – 1.9070
(Entry from current price is valid with proper risk & position sizing.)
🎯 Target:
• 1.9700
❌ Stop Loss:
• Daily close below 1.8780
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward:
• > 1:2
💡 Does GBPAUD use the 1.8950–1.9070 demand zone as a launchpad toward 1.9700, or do you expect another consolidation phase before the next bullish expansion? 👇 Falling towards pullback support?Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling toward the pivot, which acts as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.3985
1st Support: 1.3869
1st Resistance: 1.4179
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party. Bearish reversal at pullback resistance?Fiber (EUR/USD) has rejected off the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop toward the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1461
1st Support: 1.1324
1st Resistance: 1.1510
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
