AUDUSD_D📊 AUDUSD – Daily Elliott Wave Analysis
On the daily timeframe, based on Elliott Wave Theory, the overall structure suggests that the market is still developing a larger Wave 5 to the upside, supported by the strength of buyers.
The current Wave 5 appears to be subdividing into five smaller waves, and at the moment, price is likely forming Wave 4 within the larger Wave 5.
🔄 Correction Scenario (Wave 4):
The expected corrective zone for Wave 4 is between 0.70573 – 0.70383.
⚠️ However, considering a regular bullish divergence on the 4-hour timeframe, there is a possibility that price may not fully reach this correction zone and could resume its upward movement earlier.
🚀 Bullish Target (Wave 5 Completion):
The projected target zone for the completion of the larger Wave 5 is 0.72826 – 0.72961.
❌ Invalidation Level:
A move below 0.69815 would invalidate this wave count and the bullish outlook.
🌍 Fundamental Perspective (Aligned with Bullish View)
From a fundamental perspective, several factors may support further upside in AUD/USD:
* Commodity Strength: The Australian dollar is closely tied to commodity exports; rising commodity prices can support AUD.
* Monetary Policy Outlook: If the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a relatively hawkish stance compared to the Federal Reserve, this could favor AUD strength.
* Risk Sentiment: A positive global risk environment tends to benefit risk-sensitive currencies like AUD.
That said, any unexpected strengthening of the US dollar or shifts toward risk aversion could delay or weaken the bullish scenario.
