GBPTHB Awaits PMI and ISM DataMarket Analysis: For GBPTHB today, keep a close watch on the Nationwide House Price Index at 13:00, which is forecasted to contract at -0.1% compared to the previous 0.4%. Later at 15:30, the focus turns to the May Manufacturing PMI, projected to come in strong at 53.7, matching the previous reading. If both the house price index and PMI data beat expectations, it will support the GBP based on the outlook that the UK economy continues to grow. Additionally, the broader direction of GBPTHB tonight will depend on the US ISM data and overall market risk sentiment.
Technical Outlook: On the 4-hour timeframe (4H), the overall chart is moving in a Side Way Up pattern. In the short term, the price is holding above the EMA lines once again, while the MACD remains above the signal line with a positive Histogram, showing that buying momentum still holds the upper hand. The RSI has also moved back above the 50 level. If the afternoon UK economic data beats expectations, GBPTHB has a high probability of rising to test the resistance zone at 43.84 – 43.86.
On the risk side, while the overall bias is positive, the price is still trading within a sideways range. The RSI is also approaching the short-term overbought zone, which could trigger profit-taking. Furthermore, if the afternoon UK data misses forecasts, it could exert downward pressure, causing GBPTHB to drop back to its support at 43.76 – 43.75.
Support Level : 43.76 – 43.75
Target : 43.84 – 43.86
Stop Loss : 43.74
AUDTHB Rises on Positive PMIMarket Analysis: The AUDTHB shows a strengthening trend in the early part of the week following several better-than-expected Australian economic data releases. This morning, the Manufacturing PMI for May stood at 50.7, beating the forecast of 50.2, reflecting continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the ANZ Job Advertisements for May increased by 1.8% from the previous -0.6%, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. Although the MI Inflation Gauge slowed to -0.3%, it is not yet enough for the market to rapidly price in an RBA rate cut.
Externally, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI today came in at 51.8, higher than the forecasted 51.4, signaling a recovery in Chinese manufacturing. This serves as a positive catalyst for the Australian economy as a major raw material exporter, boosting demand for risk assets and growth-linked currencies. Barring any dollar buying triggered by tonight’s Fed speeches, AUDTHB has room to extend its gains in the short term.
Technical Outlook: On the 4-hour timeframe (4H), the overall chart pattern continues to move in a Side Way Up structure. In the short term, the price has a tendency to rebound and re-establish itself above the EMA lines. Meanwhile, the MACD has crossed up, reflecting that buying momentum is starting to return, and the RSI has climbed above the midpoint. Supported by this morning’s positive Australian economic data, there is a good chance for AUDTHB to move higher and test the resistance zone around 23.40 – 23.42.
However, as a point of risk, despite the price recovery, it has not yet clearly broken and held above the EMA lines. The MACD line also shows a tendency to cross down while the Histogram is weakening, indicating that buying pressure is not yet robust. Consequently, AUDTHB carries a risk of pulling back to test the support zone around 23.35 – 23.34 again.
Support Level : 23.35 – 23.34
Target : 23.40 – 23.42
Stop Loss : 23.33
USDTHB Awaits ISM and Fed SignalsMarket Analysis: Today, keep a close eye on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 21:00, which is expected to rise to 53.3 from 52.7, reflecting continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. A better-than-expected reading will likely strengthen the US dollar, as the market may scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Additionally, the speech by Fed Governor Waller at 19:30 will be another key factor; a hawkish stance could push USDTHB higher. However, liquidity in Asian markets may be thinner than usual due to market holidays in Thailand and several countries in the region.
Technical Outlook: The overall picture on the 4-hour timeframe (4H) shows sideways movement. In the short term, the price has rebounded back above the EMA line following buying pressure around 32.50. Meanwhile, the MACD has crossed up and the Histogram is recovering, reflecting returning buy momentum. The RSI is also trending upward above the midpoint, supporting the chance for USDTHB to retest the resistance zone at 32.59 – 32.62. Furthermore, the Thai stock market is closed today, which may thin out Baht liquidity, but the main drivers for USDTHB remain US economic data and the direction of the US dollar.
Risk Factors : Despite the short-term recovery, the broader picture remains in a downtrend as the price continues to trade below the EMA line and the RSI stays below 50, indicating that buying pressure is not yet strong enough. If selling pressure returns, there is a possibility that USDTHB could pull back to retest the support zone at 32.50 – 32.48.
Support Level : 32.50 – 32.48
Target : 32.59 – 32.62
Stop Loss : 32.47
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