USD/JPY: Slight Negative Bias at Monthly HighUSD/JPY moved with a mild negative bias during Wednesday's Asian session, but remained near the nearly four-week high touched yesterday.
The lack of follow-through selling and the strength of the US dollar's fundamentals suggest that the current correction remains limited, so traders are advised not to rush to the conclusion that spot prices have reached a peak.
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✅ JPY: Himino's Rhetoric & Intervention Fears Hold Back JPY Sellers
The Japanese yen received a slight daily boost thanks to a combination of verbal intervention and market risk:
- 🔸Hawkish Comments by Ryozo Himino: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor made a key statement on Tuesday, reiterating that the central bank will consider the timing and pace of its next interest rate hike in light of the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. This tightening signal provides a floor of support for the JPY.
- 🔸Physical Intervention Risk: The proximity of prices to monthly peaks has raised concerns about potential direct intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) to support the yen, which has limited USD/JPY buyers from placing overly aggressive bets on the upside.
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✅ USD/JPY Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, the pair is currently in a healthy consolidation phase in the overbought area:
- 🔸Upward Consolidation Pattern: The daily bias has weakened slightly, purely due to short-term retail profit-taking (intraday profit-taking) and caution ahead of tomorrow's major US economic data.
- 🔸Nearest Support (158.20 - 158.50): As long as the pair does not break below this horizontal area on a sustained basis by the close of the New York session, the medium-term bullish trend structure remains intact.
- 🔸Driving Catalyst: Given that there are few relevant US economic data releases on Wednesday, price movements will be driven purely by order flow dynamics and headline risk from the Gulf.
Forex market
USDJPY Holds Bullish Structure Below 160USDJPY remains above both EMAs on H1 after breaking out from the 158.90–159.00 range, showing that buyers still control short-term momentum.
However, price has started slowing near 159.35–159.40 as the market becomes more cautious ahead of the psychological 160.00 level and possible intervention risks from Japan.
Trade Plan
Buy setup: wait for a pullback toward 159.15–159.05. If buyers defend this area clearly, targets are 159.40–159.50.
Continuation target: if momentum remains strong, price may extend toward 159.65–159.70.
Avoid chasing longs near 160.00 because intervention risk and profit-taking pressure could increase sharply.
Invalidation: if USDJPY loses 159.05 clearly, short-term bullish momentum weakens.
11 Must Have Elements of a Winning Trading System
1. Set a Minimum Number of Trades for Performance Analysis
One of the biggest mistakes new traders make is judging their performance too quickly. Winning two or three trades in a row does not mean a strategy is perfect, just like a few losses do not mean the system is broken. Trading requires patience and long-term observation. A proper evaluation should be based on a larger number of trades because the market behaves differently under changing conditions. Reviewing enough trades helps traders understand whether their strategy can survive volatility, emotional pressure, and market uncertainty over time. Consistency is built through repetition, not short-term results.
2. Choose the Metrics That Define Your Trading Growth
Professional traders rely heavily on data because numbers reveal the truth behind performance. Important metrics such as win percentage, average risk-to-reward ratio, drawdown, and monthly returns help traders identify what is working and what needs improvement. Without tracking performance, traders often depend on emotions and assumptions rather than facts. Keeping records also creates accountability because every mistake becomes visible. Over time, these statistics help traders refine their strategy, improve discipline, and build confidence based on real evidence rather than emotions.
3. Pick the Best Market Hours for Your Strategy
Not every hour in the market provides quality opportunities. Some periods offer strong momentum and liquidity, while others become slow and unpredictable. Successful traders understand the importance of timing and focus only on sessions that fit their strategy. For example, some traders perform better at market open because volatility is higher, while others prefer calmer conditions later in the day. Trading randomly throughout the day often leads to overtrading and emotional exhaustion. Having a fixed trading schedule creates structure, improves focus, and helps traders avoid unnecessary decisions.
4. Understand Your Unique Market Advantage
Every successful trader eventually discovers a personal edge that gives them confidence in the market. This edge could come from technical analysis, price action reading, breakout trading, trend following, or understanding market psychology. A trading edge is what separates calculated decisions from random gambling. Traders who do not understand their advantage often jump from one strategy to another whenever they face losses. This creates confusion and inconsistency. Building a strong edge requires study, experience, observation, and continuous improvement over time.
5. Select Stocks That Match Your Trading Style
Different stocks behave differently based on volatility, liquidity, sector strength, and market sentiment. Some traders are comfortable with fast-moving stocks that offer quick opportunities, while others prefer slower and more stable price action. Choosing the wrong type of stock can create emotional stress and poor decision-making. Traders should focus on instruments that align with their personality, strategy, and risk tolerance. Maintaining a focused watchlist also improves concentration because traders become familiar with how certain stocks move under different market conditions.
6. Decide Where to Limit Your Losses
Risk management is one of the most important foundations of successful trading. No trader can win every trade, which is why protecting capital matters more than chasing profits. A stop-loss acts as a safety mechanism that prevents a single bad decision from causing serious damage to the trading account. Many traders ignore stop losses because they hope the market will reverse in their favor. Unfortunately, hope is not a strategy. Accepting small losses quickly allows traders to survive long enough to capture future opportunities. Long-term success in trading depends more on controlling losses than maximizing wins.
7. Plan Your Profit Booking Strategy
Entering a trade is only one part of the process. Knowing when to exit is equally important. Many traders become emotional during profitable trades because greed makes them expect even larger gains. As a result, they often hold positions too long and lose profits unnecessarily. A pre-planned exit strategy removes emotional decision-making and creates consistency. Some traders use fixed targets, while others exit based on technical signals or trailing stop losses. The key is to define the exit plan before the trade begins rather than making emotional decisions during market movement.
8. Build Rules for Managing Active Trades
Trade management is what happens after entering a position. This includes adjusting stop losses, securing partial profits, reducing exposure during volatility, and responding to changing market conditions. Many traders focus only on entries while completely ignoring management rules. However, poor trade management can destroy even a good setup. Having clear rules helps traders stay disciplined under pressure and prevents emotional reactions caused by fear or greed. Good management creates consistency because decisions are made based on structure rather than emotions.
9. Fix Your Risk Amount Before Entering Any Trade
Professional traders always know exactly how much money they are willing to risk before entering the market. This habit creates emotional stability because losses remain controlled and manageable. Risking too much on a single trade creates fear, stress, and impulsive decision-making. On the other hand, controlled risk allows traders to think clearly even during losing streaks. Most experienced traders focus more on preserving capital than chasing aggressive profits because they understand survival is the priority in trading.
10. Include Rest Days to Maintain Mental Clarity
Trading requires intense focus, emotional control, and mental energy. Constant exposure to charts and market fluctuations can lead to stress, frustration, and burnout. Many traders believe they must trade every day to succeed, but overtrading often leads to poor decisions and unnecessary losses. Taking breaks allows the mind to recover and helps traders return with better clarity and emotional balance. Sometimes the best trading decision is choosing not to trade at all. A rested mind performs far better than an emotionally exhausted one.
11. Develop Patience and Emotional Control Under Pressure
The market constantly tests human emotions. Fear appears during losses, greed appears during profits, and frustration appears during uncertainty. Traders who cannot control their emotions often struggle with revenge trading, impulsive entries, and abandoning their trading plans. Patience is what allows traders to wait for high-quality opportunities instead of forcing trades out of boredom or emotion. Emotional discipline does not mean ignoring feelings completely. It means learning how to make logical decisions even when emotions are strong. In the long run, mindset and emotional control often matter more than strategy itself.
EURUSD Tests Resistance Before Next MoveEURUSD is attempting a technical rebound after the recent decline, but price is still below the major EMA near 1.1665. This means bearish pressure has not fully disappeared yet.
The most important resistance zone is 1.1650–1.1670. A rejection from this area could send price back toward 1.1600–1.1585.
Trade Plan
Sell scenario: wait for EURUSD to retest 1.1650–1.1670. If H4 rejects clearly, target 1.1600–1.1585.
Buy scenario: only consider long if price closes firmly above 1.1670 on H4. Targets: 1.1700 and 1.1720.
Invalidation: if price holds above 1.1670, the bearish pullback setup becomes weaker.
Option Trading #2NIFTY 50 and Reliance Industries Option Trading
NIFTY 50 Option Trading
Why Traders Prefer NIFTY Options
High liquidity
Tight bid-ask spread
Smooth price movement
Suitable for scalping and intraday trading
Best Strategy for NIFTY
Trend Following Strategy
Buy CE when:
Price above VWAP
Put writing increases
Resistance breakout confirmed
Buy PE when:
Price below VWAP
Call writing increases
Support breakdown confirmed
GBP/USD Struggles to Maintain MomentumOANDA:GBPUSD GBP/USD (Cable) struggled to maintain momentum after briefly breaking through the psychological level of 1.3500 (a 1.5-week high) the previous day.
The spot price reversed course and weakened slightly to around 1.3485 in today's Asian session, pressured by a modest rise in the US dollar (USD) triggered by the latest military escalation in the Middle East.
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✅ Fundamental Dynamics: Geopolitical Pull Against USD Correction Trend
The US dollar's strength was driven by a combination of physical tensions and monetary expectations:
- ⚡CENTCOM Military Action: Reports that US forces launched self-defense airstrikes against Iranian missile sites and minesweepers dashed optimism about a ceasefire last weekend. The conflict, now entering its third month, continues to block 20% of global oil supply, maintaining a safe-haven premium for the USD.
- ⚡Inflation & Fed Rate Concerns: A renewed surge in crude oil prices has fueled concerns that inflation will become stubborn again. Market participants responded by increasing hawkish speculation, with the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 bps by the end of the year climbing to 41% according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
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✅ Critical Price Levels to Watch
- ⚡Immediate Resistance (1.3517): The 61.8% Fibonacci level, which serves as a key gateway to retest the recent swing high at 1.3649.
- ⚡Crucial Support (1.3460): If this level is decisively broken at the close of the New York session, bullish sentiment will be extinguished, opening the door to a decline to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3435.
GBPUSD Retests Buyers After H4 RecoveryGBPUSD has recovered strongly after sweeping the 1.3300–1.3350 zone and is now trading back above both EMAs near 1.3480–1.3500.
The important support zone is 1.3465–1.3450. If buyers defend this area, the recovery can continue.
Trade Plan
Buy setup: wait for a pullback toward 1.3465–1.3450. If price reacts well, targets are 1.3520 and 1.3550.
Continuation target: if momentum remains strong, GBPUSD may extend toward 1.3600.
Avoid chasing: buying directly near 1.3500 is less attractive because price is already close to short-term resistance.
Invalidation: if price loses 1.3450 clearly, the recovery setup becomes weaker.
EURUSD: HTF Weekly Discount Midpoint + Below VAL = Bearish ContEURUSD | Bearish continuation from HTF discount midpoint – weakness below value
EURUSD continues to show a bearish tone after trending lower for the past 32 days, with sellers maintaining control and price consistently printing lower highs.
From a higher timeframe perspective, price is currently trading inside the weekly discount range, around the midpoint of the broader HTF dealing range. Even though price is already discounted relative to the larger range, buyers have not shown meaningful acceptance back into value.
The 1H structure also supports weakness:
• Price remains below Value Area Low (VAL)
• Repeated rejection near prior value / POC
• Lower highs continue to form on intraday structure
• Weak bullish retracements are failing quickly
• Sellers continue defending premium intraday zones
As long as price stays below the current value area, the bias remains bearish with the expectation of continuation lower toward resting liquidity.
Trade idea:
🔻 Bias: bearish continuation
📍 Key resistance: 1.1640 – 1.1665
🎯 First target: 1.1600
🎯 Second target: 1.1585
🎯 Extended target: 1.1550 / lower liquidity zone
🛑 Invalidation: strong reclaim and acceptance back above VAH / value area
Current read:
HTF remains weak, weekly range still trading in discount, and intraday price below value suggests sellers still control the market. Unless price reclaims value with acceptance, rallies look like opportunities for continuation lower. FX:EURUSD
CAD/CHF Corrects Sharply and Will Continue to DeclineStructurally, the medium-term trend remains bullish. This trend is characterized by the price successfully breaking the structure (BOS) upward in several previous swings and forming a Higher High (HH), but the price is vulnerable to a short-term correction.
- 🔸Wave Structure: A massive impulsive upward impulse from the previous lower area is calculated as a long Wave 3 cycle or a major impulsive sub-wave.
- 🔸Current Status: The price at 0.56714 is likely in the early stages of Wave 4 (Corrective Wave). In theory, after completing a saturated Wave 3 extension, the market needs a corrective decline (usually targeting the 23.6% to 38.2% retracement area) to balance the order book before preparing for the final expansion towards Wave 5.
- 🔸Projection: Potential for a gradual continuation of the short-term decline (retracement) to collect remaining buy orders in the lower discount area.
The primary bias for CADCHF on the H4 timeframe remains bullish. However, the next price movement direction for the short term (intra-week) is projected to move down first (correction/pullback) towards the area range of 0.56200 - 0.56350 before finally gathering momentum to bounce back up.
EUR/USD Rises Moderately, Forming a GapEUR/USD capitalized on a volatile opening week by recording a significant bullish gap.
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✅ Fundamental Dynamics: Thin Liquidity Push-and-Pull
Global sentiment is currently shifting rapidly toward risk-on, but is being hampered by quiet market conditions:
- ⚡60-Day Ceasefire Framework: A report from Axios regarding the potential signing of an interim peace deal between the US and Iran that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was the main trigger for the plunge in crude oil prices.
- ⚡US Bond Yields Plunge: Falling upstream inflation expectations dragged US Treasury yields sharply lower. This decline was exacerbated by relatively thin market liquidity as several global financial centers were closed for a bank holiday.
- ⚡Hawkish Fed Anchor: Although the dollar took a hit today, the currency's decline is projected to be contained. Investors are aware that President Trump is maintaining a full maritime blockade until the official document is signed, and the Fed is maintaining a hawkish bias for the remainder of 2026.
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✅ Technical Analysis: Momentum Improves Above the 23.6% Fibonacci
Technically, the EUR/USD short-term chart structure is starting to show signs of a constructive recovery:
- ⚡Intraday Resistance (1.1675 - 1.1680): The 38.2% Fibonacci level that will be the first test of the continuation of this rally.
- ⚡Upper Limit (1.1710): The convergence between the 200-period SMA on the H4 chart and the 50% Fibonacci. This area is projected to limit the short-term bullish bias unless a formal peace document is signed.
- ⚡Key Support (1.1638): Failure to hold this level will trigger a gap-closing back to the 1.1574 area (a bearish structural anchor).
AUDUSD - Bulls Regain Momentum Near Breakout ResistanceOANDA:AUDUSD continues to trade within a broader bullish structure after successfully defending the 0.7100 - 0.7110 support region. The recent recovery from the lower zone suggests that buyers remain active, while price is now attempting to reclaim momentum above short-term consolidation resistance near 0.7184.
The current structure appears to be developing as a continuation phase rather than a complete reversal, with higher lows slowly rebuilding bullish pressure. As long as the support zone continues holding, the broader structure remains constructive for another upside leg.
A clean breakout above 0.7184 could strengthen bullish momentum further and open the path toward the next upside targets around 0.72194 , 0.72507 , and eventually 0.72808 .
We will update with further information soon
Chapter 1: Mastering the Basics of Elliott Wave
A Simple Introduction
---------------------------
Every market moves in phases. Prices rise, fall, pause, and then move again. When you spend enough time studying charts, you begin to notice that these movements are not completely random. Certain structures appear again and again.
This idea became the foundation of the Elliott Wave Principle.
Ralph Nelson Elliott studied market behavior and found that price movement often follows repeating patterns. He believed these patterns are connected to human emotions. Fear, confidence, greed, and panic influence the decisions traders make every day, and because human behavior stays the same, market behavior also tends to repeat.
The wave principle is not simply about predicting price. It is a way of understanding how trends develop and how crowd psychology appears on a chart.
What Does “Wave” Mean in Trading?
---------------------------------------------
The word "wave" may sound confusing at first. Most traders ask the same question when they first hear about Elliott Wave Theory.
How can a market create waves?
The answer becomes clear once you start observing price movement closely.
A market never moves straight upward or straight downward for long. Price moves in swings. It pushes higher, pulls back, and then continues again. During a decline, price falls, recovers slightly, and then drops further.
These continuous swings between highs and lows create what traders call waves.
Once you understand this concept, charts begin to make much more sense.
Market Trends and Structure
-------------------------------------
In an uptrend, the market usually forms higher highs and higher lows. Buyers remain in control, so the price continues moving upward over time.
In a downtrend, lower highs and lower lows begin to appear. Sellers gain control, and the market starts moving downward.
There are also periods when the market moves without a clear direction. During these phases, the price often remains within a range, creating sideways movement.
The Elliott Wave Principle attempts to organize all of these movements into a structured cycle.
According to the theory, trending moves usually develop in five parts, while corrective moves tend to unfold in three parts. Together, they form the well-known 5-wave and 3-wave structure.
Why Learn Elliott Wave Theory?
-----------------------------------------
There are many ways to analyze financial markets. Some traders prefer indicators, while others focus on price action, chart patterns, or volume analysis.
Elliott Wave Theory is different in that it focuses on the structure behind price movements.
Many traders use wave analysis to:
1. Understand the direction of the trend
2. Identify possible reversals
3. Separate corrections from strong trending moves
4. improve entry and exit timing
5. Build better risk management
Another reason traders value the wave principle is that it can be applied to different markets and timeframes.
The same concepts can appear on a 5-minute chart or a long-term investment chart.
Questions Traders Often Ask
------------------------------------
Before entering a trade, traders usually look for answers to a few important questions.
* Is the market trending or correcting?
* Is momentum becoming stronger or weaker?
* Could the current move continue further?
* Is this a good area to enter a trade, or is it better to wait?
* Wave analysis helps traders think more clearly about these situations instead of making emotional decisions.
Conclusion:
----------------
Learning Elliott Wave Theory takes time and practice. In the beginning, wave structures may seem difficult to identify, but with regular chart study, the patterns become easier to recognize.
The purpose of this book is to explain the wave principle in a practical and straightforward way so that traders can apply it more confidently in real market conditions.
In the next chapters, we will study wave structures, rules, corrections, Fibonacci relationships, and real chart examples step by step.
By @BrightRally_Research on the @TradingView platform.
Option Selling vs Option BuyingOption Selling vs Option Buying
Compare Risk, Reward & Capital Requirements
Introduction
In the options market, traders mainly use two approaches: Option Buying and Option Selling. Both strategies can generate profits, but they work very differently in terms of risk, reward, probability, and capital requirement.
Many beginners are attracted toward option buying because of small capital and high-return potential, while experienced traders often prefer option selling because of higher probability and time decay advantage.
Understanding the difference between these two approaches is extremely important before entering the derivatives market.
What is Option Buying?
Option buying means purchasing a Call Option (CE) or Put Option (PE) with the expectation that the market will make a strong move.
Buy Call → Bullish View
Buy Put → Bearish View
The buyer pays a premium to the seller for the right to trade the contract.
Key Features of Option Buying
Limited Risk
Unlimited Profit Potential (in theory)
Requires lower capital
Works best during strong trending moves
Highly sensitive to volatility and time decay
What is Option Selling?
Option selling means selling option premiums to earn income from time decay and market stability.
Sell Call → Bearish/Neutral View
Sell Put → Bullish/Neutral View
The seller receives premium upfront and profits if options expire worthless.
Key Features of Option Selling
High Probability Strategy
Limited Profit
Potentially Unlimited Risk (in naked selling)
Requires higher margin capital
Benefits from time decay (Theta)
Risk Comparison
Option Buying Risk
The maximum loss in option buying is limited to the premium paid.
Example:
If a trader buys a NIFTY Call Option for ₹100 premium and the market moves against the position, the maximum loss is only ₹100 per lot quantity.
This makes option buying attractive for small traders.
Main Risks in Option Buying
Time Decay (Theta)
False Breakouts
Volatility Crush
Premium Erosion
Fast Capital Loss During Sideways Markets
Option Selling Risk
Option sellers face higher risk because losses can expand rapidly during sharp market moves.
Example:
If a trader sells a Call Option and the market suddenly rallies strongly, losses may become very large.
Main Risks in Option Selling
Unlimited Risk in Naked Selling
Sudden Gap-Up or Gap-Down Moves
News/Event Volatility
Margin Pressure
Emotional Stress During Trending Markets
Reward Comparison
Option Buying Reward
Option buying offers explosive reward potential.
A small premium can sometimes generate multiple times return during strong momentum.
Example:
Buy Option at ₹20
Premium moves to ₹120
Return = 500%
This is why option buying becomes popular during:
Breakout Trading
News-Based Moves
Budget Day
Election Results
High Volatility Sessions
Option Selling Reward
Option selling generally provides smaller but consistent rewards.
The seller earns from:
Time Decay
Premium Reduction
Sideways Markets
Low Volatility Conditions
Professional traders often focus on:
Consistency
Probability
Risk Management
rather than chasing very large gains.
Capital Requirement Comparison
Factor Option Buying Option Selling
Capital Needed Low High
Margin Requirement Minimal Significant
Leverage High Moderate
Suitable for Small Accounts Yes Limited
Risk Exposure Limited High
Time Decay Advantage
One of the biggest differences between option buying and selling is Theta Decay.
Option Buyers
Time decay works against buyers.
Even if the market remains sideways, option premiums slowly lose value daily.
Option Sellers
Time decay benefits sellers.
As expiry approaches, premiums decay faster, helping sellers earn profits even without major market movement.
Market Condition Suitability
Best Conditions for Option Buying
Strong Trending Market
Breakout Momentum
High Volatility Expansion
News-Driven Sessions
Best Conditions for Option Selling
Sideways Market
Range-Bound Conditions
Volatility Decline
Stable Market Structure
Psychology Difference
Option Buyers
Need:
Patience
Accurate Entry Timing
Fast Decision Making
Momentum Identification
Option buyers often face emotional pressure because premiums move very quickly.
Option Sellers
Need:
Strong Risk Management
Discipline
Hedging Knowledge
Position Sizing Control
Option sellers usually focus more on probability and consistency.
Which Strategy is Better?
There is no single “best” strategy.
The better approach depends on:
Market Condition
Trading Experience
Risk Appetite
Capital Size
Psychological Discipline
Generally:
Beginners often start with option buying because risk is limited.
Experienced traders prefer option selling for consistency and probability advantage.
Professional Insight
Smart traders do not blindly choose buying or selling every day.
They adapt according to:
Volatility
Market Structure
Institutional Activity
Trend Strength
Liquidity Zones
Professional trading is not about predicting every move.
It is about managing risk efficiently while protecting capital.
USDINR | MarketOmorph Week 21 | 24-MAY-2026USDINR continues operating within elevated participation while broader rising structure remains intact.
STRUCTURAL OBSERVATION
• Expansion above pivot participation (~90.5–91.5)
• Elevated participation remains active
• Broader rising structure remains intact
• Upper participation activity continues
BEHAVIOUR OBSERVATION
Current behaviour reflects continued participation within elevated structural territory.
POSSIBLE PATHWAYS
🟢 Participation Strengthens
• Sustained participation may support continuation within broader structure
🟡 Neutral Rotation
• Continued movement may reflect ongoing participation activity
🔴 Participation Weakens
• Reduced participation may shift focus toward lower structural references
EDUCATIONAL LAYER
Participation can remain elevated while broader structures continue evolving.
NEUTRALITY LAYER
This is a structural reference, not a forecast.
Structure first. Action later.
MarketOmorph
Structure → Level → Trigger → Probability
GBPUSD Multi Time-Frame Analysis Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
22nd May 2026 — Nifty Report — Another Flattish WeekNifty Stance Slightly Bullish
Nifty’s range-bound journey continues. Nifty was trapped between the support 23793 and the resistance 24335 for 33 days, i.e. 8th April to 11th May. And for the last 11 days, it has been stuck between support at 23357 and resistance at 23793. Like every consolidation, this one would break as well, but it would require a strong trigger.
This week started with a gap-down opening on 18th May, right at the support level of 23357, which was followed by a strong retracement for a flattish close. Tuesday, we started flat, but gave away gains in the afternoon. On Wednesday, we tried to retest the 23357 support again, but we closed strong. Thursday, we opened above the resistance level of 23793, but we gave up all those gains. On Friday, we tried to break through the resistance of 23793 again, but failed. Overall, we only managed to gain 75pts (~ 0.32%) this week. The zig-zag movement, but with no real gains or losses is indicative of a flattish market.
If you look at the chart, you can see multiple crossovers between the blue and green EMAs (3 this week). Since the ADX 1D timeframe remains below 20 pts, our stance is flattish with a minor bullish bias.
Important Things to Watch for the Next Week
Results of the following major companies are expected over the next week. NTPC, Divis Labs, JK Cement, ABB Power, ONGC, Cummins, Ashok Leyland, and Asian Paints.
We are expecting the Industrial Production data, FX reserves, and Federal Fiscal Deficit (March).
25th May 2026 is a holiday for the US market due to Memorial Day. Other global events to watch out for are: CB Consumer Confidence (US), ECB Financial Stability Review (Euro), Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index (US), Q1 GDP (US), Initial Jobless claims, and Chicago PMI (US).
28th May 2026 is a holiday for Bakri Id, and the Sensex expiry will be on Wednesday, 27th May.
If Nifty starts falling, the important support levels are 23357, 22781 and 22519. If Nifty starts rallying, the important resistance levels are 23793, 23925, and 24192.
We expect next week’s trading to be totally dependent on the US-Iran peace deal; until then, the range-bound trade may continue.
Meanwhile, the USDINR hit an all-time high of 96.96 on Wednesday and has since cooled off by 1.32%. This was after the RBI stepped in to sell USD at massive volumes. Speculations of an interim rate hike were also doing the rounds.
This is how the Indian Rupee has performed against the Pakistani Rupee since 3rd July 2025. Our currency has depreciated by 12.05% against the US dollar, whereas the PKR has appreciated by 1.98%. The Indian currency is underperforming the Pakistani currency by ~ 14%.
Note: The technical analysis indicator mentioned above is for educational purposes only and not a guarantee that the trade could end up in profits. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should read all related documents carefully and consult a certified advisor before investing. Registration granted by SEBI and Enlistment with RAASB/BSE and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in stocks or derivatives. The SEBI RIA license INA000021757 is for Balachandran RV
GBP/USD Bullish Compression Near Breakout ZoneKey Observations
Trend Bias: Short-term bullish.
Buyers defended higher lows repeatedly, shown by the rising trendline underneath price.
Price is compressing into resistance, which often precedes a volatility expansion.
Structure Analysis
Resistance zone: 1.3440 – 1.3450
Immediate support: 1.3410 – 1.3400
Rising trendline support remains intact.
The grey projected box suggests expectation of an upside continuation move.
Bullish Scenario
If GBP/USD breaks and closes above:
y=1.3450
then momentum could extend toward:
1.3480
1.3500
Potentially 1.3520+
Volume and candle strength on breakout will matter.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold the ascending trendline may trigger:
Pullback to 1.3400
Then deeper retrace toward 1.3380 – 1.3360
A fake breakout is also possible because price is sitting directly beneath supply.
Market Psychology
This pattern reflects:
Sellers defending resistance
Buyers becoming increasingly aggressive at higher prices
Usually, whichever side wins this compression gets a sharp move.
Trading Idea
Aggressive bulls: wait for breakout candle above resistance.
Conservative traders: wait for retest confirmation after breakout.
Bears only gain control if structure breaks below the rising support line.
Swing trade - EURUSDHi Friends, here is high probability swing scenario in EURUSD. Price has tested RDRB, formed divergence. Now we expect price to displace and retest LTF FVG and RDRB zone.
Price must respect this area.
Please do follow me if you liked the idea💡...
Disclaimer ⚠️:This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions
GBPUSD Recovery Still Looks FragileGBPUSD is attempting to recover after the sharp breakdown in mid-May, but the rebound still looks weak overall.
On the H4 chart, EMA34 has crossed below EMA89 and both moving averages continue trending downward, confirming that the medium-term bearish structure remains dominant.
Recent upward moves look more like technical pullbacks, with weak volume and repeated rejections around EMA34 — a pattern often seen before trend continuation.
At the same time, the US dollar continues attracting strong capital flows due to high Treasury yields and expectations that the Fed will keep rates elevated for longer.
Meanwhile, GBP still lacks a strong catalyst capable of shifting momentum clearly against the USD.






















