USDJPY 7/7 - S-T Range Trading Awaiting New Breakout catalyst...Since Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi took office and the market began speculating that the US Fed. will raise rates in 2026, the yen has been weakening. Major news sites have been promoting that the yen is at a 30-year high since 1990... Looking closely at the daily chart, USDJPY is still consolidating near the July 2024 high (around 162), not a confirmed breakout yet.
In the past 2 years, whenever the daily MACD showed divergence, USDJPY experienced a clear correction. Momentum has slowed, but the correction has yet to appear, as the market awaits a new catalyst...
What will the new catalyst be...?
Will the US Dollar Index strengthen again, breaking above 101.80? Two weeks ago, some investment banks reported three rate hikes this year. For the dollar to strengthen further, the market would need to speculate on more than three hikes by the Fed in 2026, which seems unlikely for now... Especially after the US/Iran situation eased, the chance of a reversal is higher...
Will the Bank of Japan intervene again? According to the IMF, Japan is a currency free convertibility country, and the BOJ still has two chances to intervene before November. Referring to the last intervention effect, it only pushed a 500-point adjustment. If they intervene again, how many points can they push down? The market usually discounts the second intervention, so this time a 300-point adjustment? It is believed this time they must act more aggressively, using more foreign reserves to be effective 🤔?
"Unknown" factors? Why say that 🤣 Just like the 2025 tariffs or the Iran situation earlier this year, these are items requiring careful planning. Planned items are known to some (based on market reactions over the past six months), but certainly not to general investors. I believe something will appear before the US midterm elections, so just wait...
Currently, USDJPY can only continue narrow range trading at high levels. Without new news, the trading range is between 158(1) and 163, operating within a consolidating triangle. USDJPY must break below the 150-day moving average to see a deeper correction.
Of course, a breakout upwards cannot be ruled out. If selling pressure above 163 clears and market momentum increases, USDJPY will retest new highs with a target of 166.5.
Start preparing, are you ready? Accumulation Market StructureOverview
The Accumulation Market Structure typically develops after a sustained downtrend, where price shifts from declining into a period of sideways consolidation. During this phase, selling pressure gradually weakens while buying interest steadily increases, resulting in a well-defined trading range. As buyers begin to absorb available supply, the market establishes a stronger foundation. A confirmed breakout above resistance may indicate the transition into the Markup Phase although confirmation should always come from price action.
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Definition
Accumulation is a market phase that typically develops after a prolonged downtrend, where price stops making lower lows and begins consolidating within a defined range. During this period, selling pressure gradually weakens while buying interest steadily increases, creating a temporary balance between supply and demand. A confirmed breakout above the consolidation range may indicate the beginning of a new bullish trend.
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Concept
The Accumulation Market Structure represents a transition from a bearish trend into a period of consolidation. During this phase, selling pressure gradually weakens while buyers steadily absorb available supply. Price remains within a defined trading range as supply and demand move toward equilibrium. The accumulation phase concludes only when price confirms a breakout or breakdown from the established range.
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Chart Explanation
The chart begins with a clear bearish trend.
Price then enters a sideways consolidation range.
Support repeatedly attracts buying interest and prevents further declines.
Resistance continues to cap upward price movement during consolidation.
Multiple reactions at both boundaries validate the trading range.
A confirmed breakout above resistance may signal the beginning of the **Markup Phase**.
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Key Observations
- Selling pressure gradually weakens throughout the consolidation.
- Buyers continue to defend the established support zone.
- Price remains confined within a clearly defined trading range.
- The accumulation range reflects temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
- The market structure remains neutral until a confirmed breakout or breakdown occurs.
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Why It Matters [ /b]
Understanding the Accumulation Market Structure helps market participants identify periods where price transitions from a bearish trend into consolidation. Recognizing this phase improves the interpretation of support, resistance, and overall market structure. Waiting for breakout confirmation encourages a disciplined approach instead of anticipating a trend reversal too early.
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Conclusion
The Accumulation Market Structure demonstrates how markets often stabilize after a decline before establishing their next directional move. As long as price remains within the consolidation range, support and resistance continue to define market behavior. A confirmed breakout above resistance may indicate the beginning of the **Markup Phase**, while continued consolidation suggests the market is still building a foundation.
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⚠️ Disclaimer
📘 This publication is intended for educational purposes only.
🙅 Not SEBI registered.
❌ This is not a buy or sell recommendation.
🧠 Purely a learning resource focused on market structure and price action.
📊 Not Financial Advice. EURUSD — Bearish EMA Trend, Sell From Fibonacci Value Zone
Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD remains under pressure as traders continue to watch USD momentum, Fed expectations, and upcoming macro data.
For now, the main structure still favours sellers while price trades below the higher EMA resistance zone. Any recovery should be viewed as a corrective pullback unless EURUSD can reclaim the main sell zone with strong confirmation.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, EURUSD is still moving in a bearish structure. EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 remain positioned above the key recovery area, showing that the main trend is still controlled by sellers.
Price is currently around 1.1417 after a short-term rebound from the lower area. However, this recovery is moving toward the Fibonacci value zone, where sellers may look for continuation entries.
The first reaction zone is around 1.1435 - 1.1440, where price has already tested the Fibonacci area. The stronger sell zone is around 1.1458 - 1.1474, which aligns with Fibonacci retracement, previous structure, and EMA resistance.
If price reaches this sell zone and rejects, the bearish continuation scenario remains valid. The main downside target is the Fibonacci extension zone around 1.1297.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.1417
Fibonacci reaction zone: 1.1435 - 1.1440
Main sell price zone: 1.1458 - 1.1474
EMA resistance area: 1.1474 - 1.1490
Short-term support: 1.1390 - 1.1360
Fibonacci target: 1.1297
Invalidation area: above 1.1490
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.1458 - 1.1474
Stop Loss: 1.1490
Take Profit 1: 1.1390
Take Profit 2: 1.1360
Take Profit 3: 1.1297
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for EURUSD to recover into the 1.1458 - 1.1474 sell zone. This area is important because it combines Fibonacci retracement, EMA resistance, and previous bearish structure.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA structure.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks back below 1.1390, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 1.1360, followed by the Fibonacci target around 1.1297.
Alternative Buy Scenario
Entry: 1.1390 - 1.1400
Stop Loss: 1.1360
Take Profit 1: 1.1435
Take Profit 2: 1.1458
Take Profit 3: 1.1474
Buy Condition
This is only a short-term corrective bounce setup, not the main trend view. A buy setup is valid only if EURUSD holds above 1.1390 and forms clear bullish rejection.
If price fails to hold this area, the bounce setup is invalid and sellers may push directly toward the Fibonacci target zone.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 1.1458 - 1.1474.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
Do not sell aggressively at the low without a pullback.
A break below 1.1390 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 1.1490, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while EURUSD trades below the EMA resistance structure. The preferred plan is to wait for a corrective pullback into the Fibonacci value zone, then look for sell confirmation toward 1.1390, 1.1360, and the Fibonacci target around 1.1297.
Do you share the same bearish view on EURUSD, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the Fibonacci value zone first?
EURUSD: 1.1405 – A Key Test of Bearish ControlOn the H4 timeframe, EURUSD is experiencing a technical rebound toward the 1.1398 level, yet the broader picture remains unchanged: the primary trend is bearish. Price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and is re-approaching a downtrend line that has previously triggered selling reactions. This indicates that the bulls have only managed a short-term bounce, insufficient to reverse the market structure.
The 1.1405 zone serves as a critical test point. It acts not only as immediate resistance but also as a potential retest level before the bears regain control. If EURUSD faces rejection around this area, selling pressure could rapidly drive the price back to the 1.1363 level. Should this support level break, the next target would extend toward 1.1300.
Notably, the current rebound lacks a clear bullish structure. While the price has risen, it remains trapped beneath resistance, the cloud, and the downtrend line. Given that the USD remains supported ahead of US employment data, EURUSD is likely to remain under pressure unless it can decisively break through the 1.1405 zone.
Entry Focus: Prioritize SELL positions around 1.1395–1.1405 if rejection candles or signs of weakness appear at resistance.
Target: 1.1300
Invalidation: The bearish scenario is invalidated if the price closes clearly above 1.1420 on the H4 timeframe, particularly if it decisively breaks the downtrend line.
