GBPUSD — Sell From EMA Value Zone & Fibonacci Levels
Fundamental Analysis
GBPUSD remains under short-term pressure as traders continue to watch USD strength, U.K. data, and upcoming macro events.
For now, the recovery has not confirmed a bullish reversal. Price is still trading below the key EMA resistance area, so pullbacks into value may continue to offer sell opportunities.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, GBPUSD is trading around 1.3323 after a sharp bearish move from the upper range. Price is currently reacting near the strong support area, but the broader structure still favours sellers while the EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 remain above price.
The key zone to watch is the EMA value zone around 1.3380 - 1.3395. This area also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement and previous broken support. If price pulls back into this zone and rejects, sellers may regain control.
There is also a short-term Fibonacci reaction level around 1.3355 - 1.3363, which can create a scalping sell reaction if price fails to recover strongly.
As long as GBPUSD remains below the EMA value zone, the main bias stays bearish. A rejection from the Fibonacci retracement levels may send price back toward 1.3320, then deeper to 1.3260.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.3323
Strong support area: 1.3315 - 1.3330
Sell scalping zone: 1.3355 - 1.3363
Main EMA value sell zone: 1.3380 - 1.3395
Fibonacci 0.382 value zone: 1.3380 - 1.3395
Upper invalidation area: above 1.3415
First downside target: 1.3315
Main downside target: 1.3260
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.3380 - 1.3395
Stop Loss: 1.3415
Take Profit 1: 1.3330
Take Profit 2: 1.3315
Take Profit 3: 1.3260
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for GBPUSD to pull back into the 1.3380 - 1.3395 EMA value zone. This area is important because it combines EMA resistance, Fibonacci retracement, and previous broken structure.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high formation below the EMA structure.
If price rejects from the value zone and breaks back below 1.3330, bearish pressure may continue toward 1.3315 and 1.3260.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 1.3380 - 1.3395.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
Do not sell directly at strong support without a pullback.
If price breaks and holds above 1.3415, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while GBPUSD trades below the EMA value zone. The preferred plan is to wait for a corrective pullback into 1.3380 - 1.3395, then look for sell confirmation toward 1.3330, 1.3315, and 1.3260.
Do you share the same bearish view on GBPUSD, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the EMA value zone?
EURUSD — EMA Bearish Trend, Sell From Value Zone
Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD remains under pressure as the market continues to watch USD momentum, Fed expectations, and upcoming U.S. macro data. If the dollar stays supported, recovery attempts on EURUSD may remain limited.
For next week, the main focus is whether price can retest the value zone above before continuing lower in line with the EMA trend.
Technical Analysis
On the 4H chart, EURUSD is still trading inside a descending channel. EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 remain above price, showing that the main structure is still bearish.
Price is currently around 1.1565 after reacting from the lower support area. However, this recovery is moving toward the Fibonacci value zone and EMA resistance area near 1.1615.
The main sell zone is around 1.1612 - 1.1627. This area aligns with the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, EMA resistance, previous broken structure, and liquidity above price.
The key bearish confirmation level is around 1.1500 - 1.1510. If price rejects from the value zone and breaks back below this support, the bearish continuation scenario becomes stronger.
The weekly downside target is the Fibonacci 1.618 extension around 1.1387.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.1565
Main sell zone: 1.1612 - 1.1627
Value zone / Fibonacci area: 1.1612 - 1.1627
Liquidity above: 1.1644 - 1.1646
EMA resistance area: 1.1592 - 1.1646
Key support zone: 1.1500 - 1.1510
Weekly Fibonacci target: 1.1387
Invalidation area: above 1.1646
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.1612 - 1.1627
Stop Loss: 1.1646
Take Profit 1: 1.1510
Take Profit 2: 1.1450
Take Profit 3: 1.1387
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for EURUSD to pull back into the 1.1612 - 1.1627 sell zone. This area is the main value zone on the chart and also aligns with EMA resistance, Fibonacci retracement, and previous broken structure.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA structure.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks below 1.1500 - 1.1510, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 1.1450, followed by the weekly Fibonacci target around 1.1387.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 1.1612 - 1.1627.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
A break below 1.1500 - 1.1510 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 1.1646, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view for next week remains bearish while EURUSD trades below the EMA structure and inside the descending channel. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into the Fibonacci value zone, then look for sell confirmation toward 1.1510, 1.1450, and the weekly Fibonacci target at 1.1387.
Do you share the same bearish view on EURUSD, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the 1.1615 value zone first?
EURUSD - EMA Value Zone Supports Bullish Continuation
Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD is trading in a constructive recovery structure as traders continue to watch USD momentum, Fed expectations, and upcoming macro data.
For now, the technical structure is improving as price holds above the EMA value zone. If USD momentum weakens, EURUSD may continue its recovery toward the next resistance and Fibonacci target zones.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, EURUSD has shifted into a stronger recovery phase after forming higher lows from the lower structure. EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 have started to turn upward, showing that the short-term trend is improving.
Price is currently trading around 1.1603 and holding near the EMA value zone around 1.1598 - 1.1604. This area is important because it aligns with the upward trendline, EMA support, and the current bullish structure.
The key support to protect the bullish setup is around 1.1575 - 1.1586. If price holds above this area, buyers may continue to defend the trend.
The first upside target is strong resistance 1 around 1.1644. If price breaks above this level, EURUSD may extend toward strong resistance 2 around 1.1685, followed by the Fibonacci resistance target around 1.1696.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.1603
EMA value buy zone: 1.1598 - 1.1604
Upward trendline support: 1.1586 - 1.1600
Invalidation area: below 1.1575
Strong resistance 1: 1.1644
Strong resistance 2: 1.1685
Fibonacci resistance target: 1.1696
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Scenario
Entry: 1.1598 - 1.1604
Stop Loss: 1.1575
Take Profit 1: 1.1644
Take Profit 2: 1.1685
Take Profit 3: 1.1696
Buy Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for EURUSD to hold the 1.1598 - 1.1604 EMA value zone. This area is important because it aligns with EMA support and the upward trendline structure.
A buy setup becomes more valid if price forms bullish rejection from this zone, such as a long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, higher low formation, or a clean reclaim above 1.1604.
If price holds above the EMA zone and breaks 1.1644, the bullish continuation view becomes stronger. The next upside targets are 1.1685 and the Fibonacci resistance zone around 1.1696.
Alternative Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.1685 - 1.1696
Stop Loss: 1.1710
Take Profit 1: 1.1644
Take Profit 2: 1.1604
Take Profit 3: 1.1586
Sell Condition
This is not the main view. A sell setup should only be considered if EURUSD reaches the upper resistance zone and shows clear bearish rejection.
If price fails to break above 1.1685 - 1.1696, sellers may create a short-term pullback back toward the EMA value zone.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to hold 1.1598 - 1.1604.
Look for bullish confirmation from the EMA value zone.
A break above 1.1644 confirms stronger upside momentum.
If price breaks below 1.1575, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view is bullish while EURUSD holds above the EMA value zone and upward trendline. The preferred plan is to wait for a clean reaction from 1.1598 - 1.1604, then look for continuation toward 1.1644, 1.1685, and the Fibonacci resistance target at 1.1696.
Do you share the same bullish view on EURUSD, or are you waiting for confirmation above 1.1644 first?
Bearish on AUD/USDAUDUSD Short Setup – Buy-Side Liquidity Sweep + MSS + Premium Supply Entry
Market Narrative
My higher-timeframe bias remained bearish as AUDUSD continued to print lower highs and lower lows, indicating institutional selling pressure was still present.
With the bearish order flow intact, my objective was to identify areas where price could engineer liquidity before continuing lower.
Step 1: Identify Buy-Side Liquidity
Price rallied into a clearly visible pool of buy-side liquidity resting above recent swing highs.
Rather than chasing the move higher, I anticipated that the market would seek liquidity above these highs to facilitate larger sell orders.
As expected, price traded above the liquidity pool and swept the highs.
Step 2: Wait for Market Structure Shift
A liquidity sweep alone is not sufficient for entry.
After the sweep, I waited for confirmation in the form of a bearish Market Structure Shift (MSS).
The MSS confirmed that buyers were losing control and that institutional order flow was beginning to transition back to the downside.
This was the first indication that the liquidity grab had likely completed.
Step 3: Identify the Premium Supply Zone
Following the MSS, price retraced back into the origin of the bearish displacement.
This area contained:
Fresh supply
Institutional order flow
Premium pricing relative to the current range
The liquidity sweep region
The confluence of these factors created a high-probability shorting opportunity.
Entry Logic
Entry:
Retest of the supply zone after MSS
Stop Loss:
Above the liquidity sweep high
Above the supply zone
Take Profit:
Major sell-side liquidity resting below
Higher-timeframe demand zone
Confluences
✅ Higher-timeframe bearish bias
✅ Buy-side liquidity sweep
✅ Bearish MSS confirmation
✅ Premium pricing
✅ Supply zone retest
✅ Strong risk-to-reward profile
Risk Management
The trade offers approximately 1:8 Risk-to-Reward, meaning the setup does not require a high win rate to remain profitable over a large sample size.
The focus is not on predicting every move but on consistently executing high-quality asymmetric opportunities.
Key Lesson
Liquidity sweeps often create emotional buying at the highs. Instead of following the breakout, I waited for evidence that the move was engineered for liquidity collection.
Once the sweep was followed by a bearish MSS and a retracement into premium supply, the market provided a structured and objective short opportunity.
"Trade where liquidity is taken, not where retail traders are trapped. GBPUSD Buy Zone Retest Before Continuation Higher
Fundamental Analysis
GBPUSD is trading in a short-term recovery structure as traders continue to watch U.S. dollar momentum, U.K. data, and central bank expectations.
After the previous bearish phase, price is now showing signs of a bullish reaction from the lower structure. If buyers can defend the retest zone, GBPUSD may continue its recovery toward the next resistance levels.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, GBPUSD has broken out from the short-term descending structure and is now trading above the EMA cluster. EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 are starting to act more like support instead of resistance.
The key area on the chart is the buy zone around 1.3378 - 1.3385. This zone was previously a resistance area and may now become support if price retests it successfully.
Current price is around 1.3402, slightly above the buy zone. A controlled pullback into 1.3378 - 1.3385 followed by bullish rejection would create a cleaner buy setup.
The first upside resistance is around 1.3433. If buyers break this level, the next major target is the strong resistance zone around 1.3483 - 1.3485.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.3402
Buy zone retest: 1.3378 - 1.3385
Short-term invalidation: below 1.3364
Nearest resistance: 1.3433
Strong resistance: 1.3483 - 1.3485
EMA support area: 1.3385 - 1.3400
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Scenario
Entry: 1.3378 - 1.3385
Stop Loss: 1.3364
Take Profit 1: 1.3433
Take Profit 2: 1.3483
Take Profit 3: 1.3485
Buy Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for GBPUSD to retest the 1.3378 - 1.3385 buy zone. This area is important because it aligns with the breakout retest structure and the EMA support zone.
A buy setup becomes more valid if price forms bullish rejection from this zone, such as a long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, higher low formation, or a clean reclaim back above 1.3400.
If price holds above the buy zone and breaks 1.3433, the recovery scenario may extend toward the strong resistance zone at 1.3483 - 1.3485.
Alternative Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.3433 - 1.3483
Stop Loss: 1.3500
Take Profit 1: 1.3400
Take Profit 2: 1.3385
Take Profit 3: 1.3364
Sell Condition
This is not the main view. A sell setup should only be considered if GBPUSD reaches resistance and shows strong bearish rejection.
If price fails to break above 1.3433 or rejects from 1.3483 - 1.3485, sellers may create a short-term pullback back toward the buy zone.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 1.3378 - 1.3385.
Look for bullish confirmation before entering buy.
A hold above 1.3400 strengthens the recovery view.
If price breaks below 1.3364, the buy setup is invalid.
Watch for reaction at 1.3433 and 1.3483 - 1.3485.
Overall, the main view is that GBPUSD may continue higher if the 1.3378 - 1.3385 buy zone holds. A confirmed reaction from this area may support a move toward 1.3433 first, then 1.3483 - 1.3485.
Do you share the same bullish view on GBPUSD, or are you waiting for a cleaner retest of the buy zone first?
