## NIFTY 50 – 4-Hour Chart Analysis## NIFTY 50 – 4-Hour Chart Analysis
1. Nifty is trading inside a **large symmetrical triangle**, indicating a period of consolidation where buyers and sellers are preparing for the next major directional move.
2. Price is currently approaching the **upper trendline resistance near 24,350–24,400**, a zone where multiple previous rejections have occurred, making it a crucial resistance level.
3. The Elliott Wave structure suggests that **Wave (5)** of the corrective rally is nearing completion, increasing the probability of a short-term reversal.
4. The chart indicates an **ABC corrective pattern** has likely completed, and failure to break above the triangle resistance could trigger a fresh bearish impulse.
5. The immediate support is around **23,750**, which is also highlighted on the chart as the first downside target after a breakdown.
6. A decisive close below **23,750** would confirm the breakdown from the triangle and could accelerate selling towards **23,200–22,900**.
7. The lower ascending trendline has supported prices several times, but repeated tests generally weaken support, increasing the probability of an eventual breakdown.
8. A sustained breakout above **24,400** with strong volume would invalidate the bearish setup and could lead to a rally towards **24,700–25,000**.
9. Traders should closely monitor the **24,350–24,400 resistance** and **23,750 support**, as a breakout from either level is likely to determine the next medium-term trend.
10. **Overall Outlook: Moderately Bearish (7.5/10)** with the expected path: **24,340 → 24,400 (Resistance) → 23,750 → 23,200 → 22,900**, while **24,400** remains the key breakout and invalidation level.
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### Disclaimer
> **Disclaimer:** This analysis is based on technical indicators, Elliott Wave interpretation, chart patterns, trendline analysis, support and resistance levels, and the current market structure. It is intended **solely for educational and informational purposes** and **should not be considered financial or investment advice**. Financial markets are inherently volatile, and no technical analysis can guarantee future price movements. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
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S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 17, 2026Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index scored a substantial retreat in this week's trading activity from the Key Resistance 7,578 and successfully hit our Mean Support level at 7,440, indicating an upcoming strong bounce to continue the current rebound, eyeing a retest of the completed Outer Index Rally 7,610 via the Key Resistance 7,578 mark.
On the other side of the fence, there exists a significant likelihood of a pump-and-dump to resume the current active Retracement to Mean Support 7,355. This colossal movement may trigger a sustained, violent downward price trend to retest our completed Inner Index Dip of 7,295. 
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Nifty Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis | 20–24 July, 2026Wrap-up:-
As discussed in my previous Mid-Term NIFTY Analysis (Weekly Chart published on 1 1 July 2026 ), the market continues to trade within Wave Y of Wave X of the larger Major Wave 4 corrective structure.
Within Wave Y, Wave A concluded at 24,601, and Wave B is currently unfolding.
Based on the latest price structure, Wave B appears to be developing as an ABC Irregular Correction.
The internal structure is currently interpreted as follows:
Internal Wave A of Wave B completed at 23,070.
Internal Wave B is currently unfolding.
Within this Internal Wave B:
Internal Wave A completed at 24,261.
Internal Wave B concluded at 23,805, by forming an Irregular Correction , as NIFTY moved below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (23,972) .
Consequently, Internal Wave C is now expected to be in progress.
What I'm Watching | 20 July – 24 July 2026
With the apparent completion of Internal Wave B within the ongoing corrective structure, the market may now be transitioning into Internal Wave C .
Within this wave:
Wave 1 appears to have completed at 24,134.
Wave 2 is currently in progress.
If this wave count remains valid, the completion of Wave 2 could pave the way for Wave 3 , which is typically the strongest and most impulsive leg in an Elliott Wave sequence.
A sustained move above key resistance levels would strengthen the bullish case.
Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Resistance: 24,530
Major Resistance: 24,601
Bullish Projection: 25,000–26,200 (subject to wave confirmation)
Trend Bias: Bullish , unless the current Elliott Wave structure is invalidated.
Professional View:
The broader structure continues to favour a bullish outlook, provided the current Elliott Wave count remains intact. While short-term volatility may persist during the completion of Wave 2, price action above key support levels would increase the probability of an impulsive advance toward higher resistance zones.
As always, confirmation through price action is more important than anticipation. Traders should monitor the validity of the wave structure and manage risk accordingly.
Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal interpretation of the market using Elliott Wave Theory and is shared strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice.
"Don't predict the market. Decode it." Long 
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NASDAQ 100: Relief Rally Before a Breakdown to New Lows?The Nasdaq 100 is approaching an important decision point.
After the recent sell-off, I believe the market could still stage a short-term recovery toward the confluence of the descending trendline and horizontal resistance near 29,400–29,600.
This rebound would not invalidate the bearish outlook. Instead, it could simply form another lower high before sellers regain control.
Bullish Scenario (Short Term)
Price rebounds from current support.
Rally into 29.4k-29.6k.
Liquidity is taken above recent highs.
Bears defend the descending trendline.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred)
Rejection from resistance.
Break below recent swing lows.
Acceleration toward the 26.8k-27.0k support zone.
Potential creation of new local lows before a larger accumulation phase.
What Supports This View?
Multiple rejections from the descending trendline.
Lower highs continue to dominate market structure.
RSI remains below its longer-term bearish trendline, suggesting momentum has not shifted back to the bulls.
Current price action resembles a corrective bounce rather than the beginning of a new impulsive uptrend.
Key Levels
🟢 Support: 28,180
🔴 Resistance: 29,400 - 29,600
🎯 Bearish Target: 26,800 - 27,000
As always, this is a probability-based scenario. A sustained breakout and close above the descending resistance would invalidate the bearish thesis and suggest buyers are regaining control. Technical analysis describes probabilities rather than certainties. Short 
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he Interconnected Tech Loop: KOSPI, Memory, and High-BetaMomentum Facing an Intermediate Trend Shift.
Happy weekend, everyone.
Taking a step back from the intraday noise to look at the macro picture, and there is some serious food for thought on the charts.
After an incredible, aggressive compounding run through April and May, the BTF has officially locked in a regime change, decoupling from the upper trend line and printing a clean, structural sell signal via a new solid red block.
The Interconnected Narrative:
We need to realise that we are operating in a highly concentrated, symbiotic macro loop right now.
Memory Stocks & AI Infrastructure: The engine of this entire global cycle.
The Liquidity Siphon (SpaceX, High-Beta Tech): Blockbuster liquidity events and mega-cap tech crowded trades have concentrated market depth into a very tight cluster.
When the global tech supply chain bellwether (#KOSPI) flashes a structural pause like this, it tells us the global liquidity tide is temporarily shifting.
To be absolutely clear: This is NOT a call for a secular 'bubble top' or an end-of-days market crash. (although bear markets do start with a trend shift of course)
Instead, what we are witnessing is a well-defined intermediate trend shift.
The market has moved from a smooth, low-volatility markup phase into a high-volatility distribution/correction phase.
As student-traders of the market know, the highest up and down days historically cluster inside corrective and bearish structures.
Bull markets walk up a slow escalator; corrective regimes ride a violent elevator.Expect wide, two-way tracking ranges ahead.
This incoming volatility shouldn't scare you—it should open up massive multi-turn trading ranges for those using mechanical, trend-following frameworks to manage risk.
Protect your capital, respect the block flips, and don't chase the wild intraday squeezes blindly.
The Bull Case: Data centers require an endless, non-negotiable stream of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to run AI models, decoupling memory demand from old-school PC/smartphone upgrade cycles and turning it into a secular growth story.
The Bear Case: "Every memory cycle in history feels 'different' at the top, but massive capital expenditure booms inevitably lead to factory over expansion, a sudden supply glut, and a brutal collapse in pricing power.
Will There Be a "DeepSeek Round 2"?
We are possibly living in it.
The disruption DeepSeek caused wasn't a one-time fluke; it validated an entirely new playbook that the market has fully institutionalised.
DeepSeek proved to the global market that a smart, sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture paired with aggressive Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA) and reinforcement learning (RL) could match the raw intelligence of Western frontier models at 1/10th or 1/30th of the training and inference cost.
DeepSeek has continued pushing its iterative release cadence, launching DeepSeek V4.
The innovations coming out of this "Round 2" clarify exactly how iterative AI improvements are scaling: Context Efficiency Upgrades: Processing long context windows (like V4's 1-million token limit) used to require prohibitive computational budgets.
DeepSeek's newer iterations use architectural mechanisms like Compressed Sparse Attention (CSA) and Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) to maintain training stability and slice memory footprints by up to 90%.
Algorithmic Efficiency Gains: The shift away from standard training optimisers toward custom alternatives like the Muon optimiser allows newer models to achieve rapid convergence on massive datasets (exceeding 32 trillion tokens) while bypassing traditional, expensive GPU clusters.
The "Think" Compute Multiplier: Instead of relying entirely on massive static parameter counts, modern iterations introduce multi-tier reasoning effort modes ("Think High", "Think Max"). This shifts the heavy lifting from the training phase to inference time, allowing a leaner model to dynamically scale its compute depending on how hard the user's question actually is.
The Structural Bottom Line
The "Round 2" of AI iteration is focused on unit economics and structural efficiency.
The industry has pivoted from asking "How large can we build this model?" to "How much performance can we extract out of minimal active parameter footprints?"
Expect the models in your pocket to rapidly match the intelligence of yesterday's cloud giants, while the cloud giants focus on running heavy, multi-step agentic pipelines.
#KOSPI
#TradingView
#BallaJiTrendFollower
#TechnicalAnalysis
#Macro
#AIInfrastructure
#TrendFollower
#Markets
#Volatility
#RiskManagement
#PriceAction
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POSSIBLE NASDAQ SHORT 20-24 JULY 2026Overall Bias: Bearish
1. Market Structure Shift
Price failed to break above the Strong Swing High, leaving the higher-timeframe bearish structure intact.
The chart labels an SSH-I (Strong Swing High - Internal), which acted as resistance.
After rejecting that area, price produced a strong impulsive move lower.
Interpretation: Sellers are still in control.
2. Break of Structure (BOS)
The chart highlights a 15m iBOS, and price has since traded well below that level.
The downside move broke previous support with momentum rather than slowly drifting lower.
Interpretation: The bearish trend is being confirmed by lower lows.
3. Supply Zone Held
The highlighted supply zone around 29,450–29,900 rejected price.
The chart even outlines:
Plan A: Sell from the lower portion of supply.
Plan B: Sell from the upper portion if price retraces deeper.
Price respected the zone and immediately sold off.
Interpretation: Institutions likely defended this supply.
4. Strong Bearish Momentum
Notice the large bearish displacement candles:
Minimal buying response.
Consecutive bearish candles.
Little overlap between candles.
This usually suggests aggressive selling pressure rather than a temporary pullback.
5. Liquidity Sweep and Rejection
Price traded into the internal swing high (SSH-I), swept liquidity, then reversed sharply.
This is a common ICT-style bearish sequence:
Buy-side liquidity taken.
Institutions distribute into buying.
Strong displacement lower.
Continuation toward sell-side liquidity.
What I'd Watch Next
Primary Scenario (Higher Probability)
Look for price to retrace back into the marked supply zone (approximately 29,450–29,900).
If, on a lower timeframe (5m–15m), you see:
bearish market structure shift,
rejection wicks,
bearish engulfing candles,
or another break of structure,
that area could provide a higher-probability continuation short.
Downside Targets
Potential objectives include:
The recent swing low around 28,200.
Any sell-side liquidity resting below that low.
If 28,200 breaks decisively, continuation toward lower higher-timeframe support becomes increasingly likely.
What Invalidates the Bearish Bias?
The bearish outlook would weaken if price:
reclaims the highlighted supply zone,
closes convincingly above the SSH-I,
and begins printing higher highs and higher lows on the 4H timeframe.
Until then, rallies appear more likely to be retracements into supply rather than the start of a new uptrend.
Summary
✅ 4H trend: Bearish
✅ Strong rejection from supply
✅ Bearish displacement confirms seller strength
✅ Lower lows established
✅ Prefer selling retracements into the marked supply zone rather than chasing the move lower
Overall, the chart supports a sell-the-rally approach unless price invalidates the bearish structure by reclaiming and holding above the marked supply and recent internal swing high.
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