Looking to sell on nas100 for the entire weekIt has broken a major trend and reacted on a strong support.
ShortMarket indices
Short
Macro Inflection Point in NasdaqIf you draw a fib from the high to the low of the 2000 Nasdaq crash you have the following;
2018 - 2019 Vol Panic = Traded 1.61 to 1.27.
2020 Covid Panic = Traded 2.20 - 1.61.
2022 Inflation Panic = Traded 3.60 - 2.61
2025 War Panic - Sharp retest of 4.23.
That means these fibs have bookended almost every major event in the last decade.
Now we are at the 6.8, which is a critical trend decision.
If this fails as support, we can see minimum of a 40% drop and significantly more if next supports break.
Conversely, if the 6.8 is used as support (or we fake out under it), an exceptional bull move would be likely to follow.
We are at the 6.8 extension of a 80% drop in an index. Where we have traded in a range for close to 6 months.
This is the first time that's happened in your lifetime.
Will probably never happen again in your lifetime.
Short
NASDAQ 100 1H Bullish Setup | FVG Retest + Trendline SupportNASDAQ 100 is currently showing a bullish structure after the recent MSS and BOS. Price is approaching the 1H FVG demand zone, which aligns with the ascending trendline and provides a strong area for a potential reaction.
If the FVG holds and price confirms bullish momentum, the next major target is the 29,745 resistance / previous HH. A clean breakout above this level could open the way for further upside.
Key Levels:
• 1H FVG — potential demand zone
• Trendline — dynamic support
• 29,745 — major resistance / HH
• Confirmation is important before entry
Risk Management: Always use proper SL and controlled position sizing.
Long
DXY Bearish Rejection at Major Resistance
DXY is showing a bearish setup after rejecting the **99.18–99.23 resistance zone** and the descending trendline. Price is currently around **99.09**, suggesting sellers may regain control if the resistance remains intact.
🔻 **Sell Entry:** 99.05–99.15
🎯 **Target 1:** 98.887
🎯 **Target 2:** 98.60
🛑 **Stop Loss:** Above 99.23
A clean break below **98.887** could strengthen the bearish move toward the **98.60 support zone**. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Short
Fake Out in Forex Trading: How to Identify, Avoid & Trade ItA fake out happens when price breaks a key support or resistance level but fails to continue and quickly reverses in the opposite direction. This move often traps traders who enter too early.
To identify a fake out, look for a strong wick, rejection, a quick return back inside the previous range, and a breakout that goes against the higher-timeframe trend.
To avoid fake outs, don’t enter immediately after a breakout. Wait for the candle to close, look for a retest, and confirm the setup using market structure, liquidity, trend direction, and other confluences.
A fake out can also become a trading opportunity when properly analyzed. Identify the key level, wait for the liquidity sweep and rejection, then enter only after confirmation. Always place your stop loss beyond the invalidation point and maintain proper risk management.
Remember: A breakout is not confirmed just because price crosses a level. Patience and confirmation can help you avoid unnecessary losses and improve your trade quality.
Education
DXY AnalysesSince inflation numbers last week have not given any clear direction yet it's still a waiting game for myself.
I see 2 scenario's playing out:
Scenario 1
Price respects the current 4h bearish orderflow in control and breaks the 4h fractal low a second time so we can trade price towards the yearly open level.
Scenario 2
Price breaks the current 4h bearish orderflow in control, which will create a new demand zone, and we trade price up towards the major daily liquidity laying at 100.083.
US30: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
US30
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell US30
Entry Level - 52538
Sl - 52647
Tp -52340
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Short
Betting on the End of the WorldI've had some questions regarding how one would bet on the bear forecasts I've made of late, and more specifically how to go about betting on unexpected moves over the next couple of months.
In this post I want to cover realistic ways this could be done in the event that we did see a big bear turn in the market.
I'd also like to clarify that I'm saying "If" this happens and I also dont think the world will end if it does. I'm bullish on the world continuing. Trend is up and to the left!
The Stages of a Trend Failure
Most important thing to understand when it comes to betting on something like this is this would usually be a sequence of events. It's a cascading thing that happens over time rather than there being one event. And often the part of the crash people think of when they think of a crash is a very small section of it.
The "2008 crash" started late 2007 and ended in 2009, people think of it as a couple of months in 2008 when there was capitulation on monthly charts.
Very important thing to understand because it means betting on something over the next months is always statistically unlikely to be right even when you're right. Your odds of being right are statistically laughable if you assume its all a random walk and very damn hard if you dont.
So its not easy to do, is what I'm saying.
How a Depression Starts
If we were to take the thesis that this is a full blown popping of a bubble that will lead to full mean reversion of key stocks and indices, then the sample of crashes we'd want to look at hugely reduces. There have been 42 drops over 10% in DJI's history but when it comes to full failures of a trend and drops of over 70% there are only three instances of this happening in a major index.
These prolonged all had a distinct style. They started with a crash. This being 40 - 50% and then heading into a bull trap. After that they went into a grinding bear market.
Now .. there are almost no other instances of major markets going directly down 40-50% outside of these - but all of those ones did feature it.
So to forecast a depression style event starting we'd usually be looking to forecast a 40-50% drop.
Interestingly enough, if we draw a fib topping swing and then look at the 4.23 ladder if we made a full 6.8 move that would be indeed around 50%.
But inside of this there would be a few crash events.
The Break
All big bear events start with an initial break. Often news driven. Always sharp. Widely unexpected.
This break goes to at least 1.61 crash style and usually goes through it easily and gets to 2.20 area.
From here things get tricky when it comes to planning how long you'd expect something to take because we can simply break all supports as shown, but there are multiple retest patterns that can happen.
This move would be entirely trivial relative to the full scope of the downtrend but a fake out, double bottom, spike, stall at the top and reversal can easily be 20 - 30 candles. Get a few of those wrong and you have the right idea but a terrible timeframe for it.
The Capitulation
The real shock selling in this would be expected on the 4.23 break.
This would be the time when there was a real case to bet on candles far bigger any of the previous ones we'd seen.
The Lotto Bet
Inside of this the furthest away strike you can support betting on is close to the 6.8.
This could happen in a crush > re-crush style pattern where there's a huge dump and instead of the standard knee jerk reaction rally we'd expect even in a usual bear market, all bounces remain shallow and local to the recent drop legs.
Usually this would come as three main "Events". The break to 1.61/2.20. Failure of 2.61 as support and then the 4.23 failure. These moves would all be very fast once under way.
The problem would be the ranging and staggering sections in the middle of this, adding time that's hard to estimate.
These are all worrying things when it comes to betting on something happening really quickly, but with that being said - we can look at examples like the Nasdaq and see all that friction stuff can happen and it still be very fast.
So the full blown lotto bet here would be to bet SPX drops 40 - 50% over the space of 2-3 months. Selecting the strike close to the 6.8 and aiming to exit while we are in max panic and the IV is crediting you for a move well passed the 6.8 that is historically speaking almost certain not to happen - but you will be paid as if it is.
The caveat would be the potential friction in the path there, with this being able to be smoothed by also taking strikes at the 1.27 / 1.61. These mean you at least get a decent win if the 2.20 hits. If the 2.20 produces a lot of chop before a second break you will lose the lotto but it'd be a nice freeroll by that time.
Short
Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis | 15 Sep – 30 Sep 2026Wrap-up:-
As discussed in my previous Mid-Term NIFTY Analysis (Weekly Chart published on 11 July 2026 ), the market continues to trade within Wave Y of Wave X of the larger Major Wave 4 corrective structure .
Within Wave Y, Wave A concluded at 24,601, while Wave B is currently unfolding.
Based on the latest price structure, Wave B appears to be developing as an WXY Irregular Correction.
The internal structure is currently interpreted as follows:
Internal Wave W of Wave B completed at 23,070.
Internal Wave X is currently unfolding.
Within this Internal Wave X :
Internal Wave A concluded at 24,261.
Internal Wave B is currently unfolding.
Within this Internal Wave B :
Internal Wave W concluded at 24,606.
Internal Wave X concluded at 24,774.
Internal Wave Y is approaching completion and will be considered confirmed only after NIFTY registers a decisive breakout and sustains above 23,820 .
Upon confirmation of Internal Wave Y , the market is expected to transition into Internal Wave C , with a projected upside objective in the 25,500-25,900 Range .
What I'm Watching | 15 Sep – 30 Sep 2026
The immediate focus remains on the completion and confirmation of Internal Wave Y .
If the current Elliott Wave count remains valid and NIFTY sustains above 23,820 , it would increase the probability of Internal Wave C commencing.
Historically, Wave C often develops as the strongest and most directional leg within an ABC corrective sequence, making this an important phase to monitor.
A sustained move above the identified resistance levels would further strengthen the bullish outlook.
Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Resistance: 23,820
Minor Resistance: 24,184-24,311 Range
Major Resistance: 24,772-25116 Range
Bullish Projection: 25,500–25,900 (subject to wave confirmation)
Trend Bias: Bullish, unless the current Elliott Wave structure is invalidated.
Professional View:
The broader Elliott Wave structure continues to favour a bullish outlook, provided the current wave count remains valid. While short-term volatility may persist during the completion of Internal Wave B , a decisive breakout above 23,820 would significantly improve the probability of an impulsive advance toward the 25,500–25,900 region.
As always, confirmation through price action should take precedence over anticipation. Traders should monitor key validation levels, remain flexible if the wave structure changes, and apply disciplined risk management.
Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal interpretation of the market using Elliott Wave Theory and is shared strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice.
"Don't predict the market. Decode it."
Long
US100 Massive Short! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for US100 below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 29371
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 29256
Recommended Stop Loss - 29445
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
Now S&P could go upHi traders,
Last week S&P500 dropped into the bullish Daily FVG and started to go up again.
So next week we could see more upside if this pair could break and stay above the bearish Daily FVG above.
Otherwise it could drop further to the bullish Monthly FVG below.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a correction up and a bearish change in orderflow on a lower timeframe, to trade shorts.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect.
Manage your emotions, trade your edge!
Eduwave
Long
Area for Aggressive Buying in NIFTY (Dream Area for buying)This is not a financial advice or a Trading setup.
It is my personal opinion do not consider it as a trading idea do your own analysis.
16,000 S&P 500 by 2030 - 3,000 S&P 500 by 2033- 100 Year Cycle1) I believe we are in the final innings of the secular bull market that started in 2009. Each prior secular bull market increased at a roughly similar amount of 2,500%. That would bring a top target of our current secular bull market at roughly 16,000-17000 price point in the S&P 500 Index. I believe this happens by the year 2030, similar to the top in 1929 before the Great Depression.
2) The bottoms of the crash that occurred after our secular bull market top have followed this trendline nicely dating back almost 100 years. This puts a price point of roughly 3,000-4000 in the S&P 500 Index by 2033.
3) Another bottoming signal that has called each bottom is when the monthly RSI becomes oversold. I didn't want to place it on this chart for aesthetic purposes. But if you bring it up on your charts, it has done an excellent job of timing the bottoms whether it be in the Great Depression or the Great Financial Crisis.
4) The timeline we are presently in is quite similar to before the Great Depression presenting a clear case for a 100 year cycle.
1918 Spanish FLU Pandemic --- 2020 COVID 19 Pandemic
Roaring 20s in both centuries followed by a top in the year 29 leading to a Great Depression.
The chart, cycles and narratives are all playing out the same way 100 years later.
Best of Luck
Short
JP225 4H: Rebound Into EMA200/POC — Shorts Stay OnJP225 4H
【Current view】
The rebound from Sep 2 ran into Sep 7 and briefly cleared the EMA200, but failed at the prior swing high of 67,342.01. Price then sold off and undercut the prior swing low at 63,681.35. The tape has been choppy, but both the trend and the structure are clearly down.
The bounce from the Sep 11 low is still underway. Into the open I expect rejection from the EMA50 or the EMA200. The VPSR POC (thick white line) sits in the same area as the EMA200. Without the energy to clear that zone, the bearish case stays intact.
【Key levels】
Support: 63,681.35
Resistance: 66,773.44
【Scenario】
Which line rejects is a next-week price-action question. Base case is a turn from the EMA50 / EMA200 area, with the upside heavy into FOMC.
Next event after that is the BOJ meeting on Sep 17–18.
【Bias】
The rebound does not change the read. Risk-off stays in play. Stay short.
A clean break above the EMA200 and the POC is a warning. A 4H body close above 66,773.44 and the short plan moves to the sidelines.
#JP225 #Nikkei225
Short
IT40 Retracement came to an end up-move incoming!Index is moving in super strong up move, after retracing for around ~5.5%, It has formed a consolidation at strong support, the neckline was at the level of 52400 above which price broke out, along with the breakout of bearish trendline, which is essentially the dual confirmation of reversal and now after that bullish move is expected.
Immediate support is at 51690 and the level that could be targeted is at 53120, and above that 53980 could be 2nd target.
Since the biasness for the upcoming week has shifted towards the bullish side, long trades would have high accuracy.
For Educational Purposes only, Not an Investment Advice, Always use strict Risk management measures.
Regards CrazyTrades247.
S&P 500 — Bearish Rejection Setup | Pullback Before TargetThe S&P 500 is approaching a potentially important phase where the market may first move slightly higher as a short-term retracement, before sellers regain control and push price toward the projected downside target.
The current structure suggests that the upcoming upside move may be corrective rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish advance.
From a technical perspective, the expected pullback could allow price to revisit a higher zone and test the strength of the current buying momentum. If the market fails to maintain that recovery and begins forming clear rejection signals, it would strengthen the bearish outlook and create a favorable opportunity for a short position.
The primary focus remains on the downside after the retracement is completed. Rather than chasing the market while it is already moving lower, the setup is based on allowing price to complete its temporary recovery and then looking for confirmation that sellers are stepping back into the market.
A sustained rejection from the higher area, followed by weakness in price structure, could trigger another downward leg toward the expected target. Until that confirmation appears, patience remains important because the initial upward movement is expected to be part of the setup rather than a change in the overall bearish view.
Market Bias: Bearish 🔻
Expected Path: Short-term upside retracement → Rejection → Stronger selling pressure → Downside target 🎯
Preferred Setup: Wait for the pullback and bearish confirmation before entering.
Risk Management: Maintain a clearly defined invalidation level and avoid overexposure if volatility increases.
Overall, the S&P 500 remains under a bearish trading outlook, with the anticipated recovery potentially providing the next opportunity for sellers to enter before the market makes its projected move toward the downside target. 📉
Short
NIFTY50.....New support area?Hello Traders,
the NIFTY50 has touched my taerget area @ 23231 at Friday's session, extending it by 31 points. On this way it has past two „Orderblogs“ as to view at the chart. The lower one seams to act as a kind of „support-area“, 'caus from this level it shows a positive (i. e. bullish) reaction.It opened the day with a gap down, touched the upper boundary of the rectangle and reacts to the upper side.The indicators show massive „oversold“ indications and it will be interesting how market will answer at Monday's session.
As I wrote before. It can be possible that N50 reacts to the higher ranged Orderblog and after (if so to come) to the lower boundary of the wedge! I think this be a challenge for the coming week.
Again. The short term view (end of the week) indicates a positive (i. e. bullish) move to the upside. How far and if so to come.....?????
When we choose a classical tool to view the range, we take notice, that the Fib.-Extension tool has extend the second leg up to the 1.618 Extension of the first move down. This is often an formidable target for a trend and more often than not, it get exhausted after moving this distance.
So. A move to the upside for the coming weeek (?) is in the cards.
The bearish targets are valid. It need a bullish impulse to pass the area of roughly 23787 points to check the chart a gain.
Have a great time....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as appropriate.
Trade on this analysis at your own risk
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 11, 2026Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In last week's trading session, the S&P 500 index (Spooz) dropped sharply to test the crucial Mean Support level at 7,611. It marked this support level by completing an In-Force Retracement movement and establishing a renewed Mean Support at 7,590.
Looking at the potential upside, the Spooz index shows the possibility of rising to the Mean Resistance at 7,695, then extending to the Mean Resistance at 7,750, the Key Resistance at 7,800, and taking another shot at reaching the Outer Index Rally peak at 7,815.
However, the current price action indicates a high probability that the Spooz will see steady-to-lower moves in the upcoming session. This would imply retesting the Mean Support at 7,590 before rebounding toward the targets said above.
US500 4H: Death Cross Holds, POC Caps the BounceUS500 4H
【Current view】
This week the EMA20/50 flipped from a golden cross to a death cross. Slope also turned from flat to down. The corrective phase from 7,817.45 is still in play. Close: 7,656.83.
Price tagged back toward the EMA50 after CPI, then sold off from there. Last week I treated the VPSR POC (thick white line) as the bull/bear line. Price is being capped right there.
【Key levels】
Support: 7,624.47
Resistance: 7,770.30
【Scenario】
The EMAs are flattening a little, but the death cross is intact and the upside looks heavy. A break of 7,624.47 opens the door to a further decline.
【Bias】
The post-CPI bounce does not change the read. Risk-off stays in play. Stay short.
A clean break above the EMA50 and the POC is a warning. A 4H body close above 7,770.30 and the short plan moves to the sidelines.
#US500 #SP500
Short
NIFTY MONTHLY ANALYSIS WITH WOLF WAVE🐺 NIFTY 50 | A 1,000-POINT WOLFE WAVE IN THE MAKING?
My favourite pattern is emerging right at the **TIME × PRICE intersection.**
A potential Bullish Wolfe Wave is developing as Nifty approaches Point 5.
📍 CMP: 23,495
🐺 Point 5: 23,300–23,500
🎯 Target 1: 23,880
🎯 Target 2: 24,250
🚀 Extended zone: 24,600–24,650
🛑 Invalidation: Below 23,050
⏳ Time window: On/before 10 Oct 2026
The 1–3 Wolfe boundary is being tested right where my time-price framework is entering a potential turning window.
That doesn't mean “buy blindly.”
It means the market has reached a **decision zone**.
If Point 5 holds → 23,880 → 24,250 becomes the roadmap.
If 23,050 breaks decisively → the setup is INVALID.
My strategy: **BUY ON DIPS, NOT CHASE.**
And the road ahead may not be easy.
Expect gaps, sudden repricing and deceptively calm intraday sessions. The biggest move may not announce itself during the trading day.
This is the difference between analysis and guru theatre:
I define the **LEVEL.**
I define the **TIME.**
I define the **INVALIDATION.**
Then I let PRICE prove me right — or embarrass me.
🐺 Patterns don't need certainty.
They need confirmation.
Agree with it or challenge it — but tell me the exact level where you think this Wolfe Wave fails.
THIS IS CALLED A 1,000-POINT MOVE WELL IN ADVANCE — NOT IN HINDSIGHT.
LET THE MARKET PROVE ME RIGHT OR WRONG.
#NIFTY50 #Nifty #WolfeWave #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure #TimePriceAnalysis #NiftyAnalysis #IndianStockMarket #TradingIndia #SwingTrading #ChartAnalysis #TradingView
Long
Nifty 50 finally after breaking Triangle consolidation- BEARISHNifty 50 finally after breaking Triangle consolidation, has became frank bearish, falling with momentum.
Short
Nasdaq is still consolidating within in ChannelNasdaq is still consolidating within in Channel. News from middle east tension is driving force of stock markets these days.
Short